As I note in the last part of my (admittedly rambly and long) post, the guideline is not the issue.

The budget fight is a strategic and political debate over the role of NATO and how/whether countries in Europe can contribute to US national power in competition against China (and possibly other up-and-coming nations as well).

The Germans are not being kicked out just because of the budget thing, they're being kicked out because they're not adding their own power to American power in sufficient amounts. It's nothing so banal as individual dollars to individual defense contractors
Germany is not only hitting the mark of 2% (for now with Sondervermögen) but is also trying its best but you can't just snap with your fingers and change obsolete structures, modernise and replace equipment even if we have 3 times the budget.
 
Germany is not only hitting the mark of 2% (for now with Sondervermögen) but is also trying its best but you can't just snap with your fingers and change obsolete structures, modernise and replace equipment even if we have 3 times the budget.
There are ongoing difficulties with figuring out how the different national forces slot into a battle plan. Nearly three years after the start of the Ukraine war, the command and control arrangements in NATO remain flimsy, and forward-deployed forces remain relatively small. There is still no responsive layer cake, or the modern equivalent (multinational divisions are what they are gunning for, information on follow on forces or mobilization forces is very vague for either security purposes/they haven't figured that part out yet).


I'd have to read up much more on current NATO planning for their central front, but first impressions are not particularly impressive. They haven't even gotten a headquarters together for Finland, and are planning on running that front from Norfolk! It's been two years, you could fight a whole war in that time!

Money is not the only problem; indeed, if you tackled the political/operational/organizational issues, the money would be much better spent. With the changing international security landscape, it's not entirely clear what everyone's priorities are. Heck, the Trump transition team has a broad swathe of opinion internally. This is a time of great changes not seen for a century, and that's true in the Atlantic as well as the Pacific. To quote Deng Xiaoping, one must cross the river by feeling the stones.

I would need to do more reading to see what the current state of thought is. My NATO reading is most from before 1989. The BAOR is gone, the West German Corps are gone, the front line is the Bug and beyond, they're not going back to the layer cake, and they're planning on multinational divisions and hoping to dovetail/hybridize with/supersede the EU. It's a new NATO for a new era.


Thankfully NATO has a library. Also they wrote their own science fiction, NATO 2099.



(Edit: The NATO 2099 comic book is pretty bad I think, worse than MARSOC FICINT but it's perhaps worth ten seconds to skim)
 
Last edited:
Remind me who invaded Ukraine again?
From a strictly economic point of view, the invasion was a great mistake equivalent to Italy's entry into the Second World War, both Russia and Italy could have sold peace very dearly for great material benefits. But for Russians, other psychological factors that are difficult to understand from our mentality are more important. Russia is a huge country with gigantic natural resources that has historically been denied an economically feasible outlet to the sea, the country has been invaded twice in a century and ideologically poisoned by German philosophers whose theories put into practice have caused enormous suffering to humanity. Russia has been surrounded during the Cold War with a ring of atomic bases and treated internationally as a contagious patient who was denied the benefits of the Marshall Plan. Russians have serious internal problems like everyone else and are furious about their recent history and worried about the changes that are coming. Despite his proven intelligence, its leader Putin was psychologically traumatized in East Berlin by the fall of the wall when he was only a grassroots Chekist with deep political beliefs.

Perhaps this is a good time to reverse the situation, negotiating.

It would not be more useful to use NATO's budget for 2025 in a decent economic aid plan... that does not end up in a numbered account?
 
Russia is a huge country with gigantic natural resources that has historically been denied an economically feasible outlet to the sea,
I am very aware of that (in 1798, the Russian tried to acquire my homeland from the Knights) but that does not justify a take over of a sovereign nation. This isn't the 18th Century anymore.
 
Trump has tapped into the traditional U.S. foreign policy - isolationism. There won't be any rescue. The country is too divided, and too tired, and the instinct to retreat and turtle up too strong.

By the way, 5% is meaningless. Percentages don't count, it's people and weapons, and Europe need enough of both to manhandle Russia if needed without relying on Trump coming to its rescue.
The rescue will occur. But only when it's in the best interests of the U.S. That's what happened during World War II. However, the present cannot be put into a tidy box, can it?
 
On a serious note underpinning my previous comments (envisioning a Canadian SRBM fleet pointed towards the south)... one has to be careful of militarism and rearmament, as one never knows how it will be used (or what reactions will be produced in others).

One point often overlooked about the war in Ukraine is this simple fact: The continued existence of an independent Ukraine is a 'peace dividend'. It is only the end of the Cold War, the decline in military spending and the long peace which allowed the Russian military to get so rusty (literally), and also produced a situation where the Russian public has little appetite for diverting funding from civilian projects to the military.

If Russia had maintained Cold War levels of military spending, then the Russian army would have had the logistics capacity to seize Kiev early on. No serious person could deny that Ukraine's army at the start of the war could have survived the Soviet army at its peak.

Soviet Military spending tended to fall in the range of 12%-21% of GDP... Russian military after three years of war and hundreds of thousands of casualties remains less than 6% of GDP...

It probably makes a lot more sense to keep military spending low (and encourage conventional disarmament of adversaries) while investing in the infrastructure to rapidly scale up military production and training in the event of conflict becoming likely.

The Russians are afraid of NATO. Among their demands is for the Ukrainian government to sign a document that prevents them from joining NATO or a similar organization. Putin is maneuvering his forces now to be in the best bargaining position with Trump when he comes to office.
 
More juvenile comments along with the addition of pointless words and terms. Take "ethnic cleansing." My tribe doesn't like your tribe so we'll kill as many of your tribe as we can. Until the U.S. intervenes. Bosnia-Herzegovina. You want to fight among yourselves? Fine. The U.S. leaves NATO and all of you can figure out what to do next.

Trump, believe it or not, knows what he's doing. He's issued an ultimatum. He's waiting for a reply from Europe. If everyone dawdles. Fine. Sort it out on your own.


Trump is a businessman who understands the world in economic terms and no good negotiator bargains with ultimatums, the guy only wants to scare the Europeans (as if we weren't already scared enough) to sell us strictly defensive anti-aircraft systems... no one wants to see Micron attacking Russia.:)
 
product of the internet having turned into a tool for spreading lies
Hybrid spending lol.

Troll farms are cheap to maintain... until they reach rock-bottom living standards. But that's for the low-tier guys who are now being replaced en mass with bots. The more capable ones, generally graduates of political science, are masters of spreading doublethink, which by definition violates rules of critical thinking. So making sure your average citizen pass a common sense check like sneaking in fake scams or phishing attempts in their emails (c'mon feds, use your backdoors for something actually good) can effectively disable like 90% of propaganda. Make critical thinking great again!

You can probably cut like half of current cyberdefense spending just by having your trooper be normal and attend internet anonymity courses probably taught by your average anti-gov IT redditor. Unfortunately none is exempted from stupidity nowadays.
 
Last edited:
This is from the commentary on NATO's New Strategic Concept 2022, NDC research paper #25, Sep 2022.


As you will see, even back then, the Americans were gunning for more than two percent; and there was discussion on the nature and role of NATO, with some noting the "beginnings of a new transatlantic bargain in a world of competitive multipolarity".

Trump's statements demonstrate continuity with as much as change from the Biden Administration in this regard.

1735059194853.png

As I also noted, even back then it was clear that the nature of this "new bargain" was deeply, deeply political.

We shall see if Strategic Concept 2025 has any new ideas...

1735059262551.png

Fault lines in NATO can be described in


Documents are by NDC.

1735060073123.png
 
Last edited:
This is from the commentary on NATO's New Strategic Concept 2022, NDC research paper #25, Sep 2022.


As you will see, even back then, the Americans were gunning for more than two percent; and there was discussion on the nature and role of NATO, with some noting the "beginnings of a new transatlantic bargain in a world of competitive multipolarity".

Trump's statements demonstrate continuity with as much as change from the Biden Administration in this regard.

View attachment 753512

As I also noted, even back then it was clear that the nature of this "new bargain" was deeply, deeply political.

We shall see if Strategic Concept 2025 has any new ideas...

View attachment 753513

Fault lines in NATO can be described in


Documents are by NDC.

View attachment 753521

Concepts don't matter. From the U.S. about NATO to Europe. What are your plans? Today? Right now?
 
The Danish government has listened carefully to utterances from across the Atlantic, and is promising action.
An increase of funding for military presence in Greenland.
Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said the package was a "double digit billion amount" in krone, or at least $1.5bn (£1.2bn).

He described the timing of the announcement as an "irony of fate". On Monday Trump said ownership and control of the huge island was an "absolute necessity" for the US.
Analysts say that the plan has been under discussion for a long time and should not be seen as a direct response to Trump's comments.

Until now Denmark has been very slow to expand its military capacity in Greenland, they say, but if the country is not able to protect waters around the territory against encroachments by China and Russia then US demands for greater control are likely to grow.
 
Last edited:
If there's not enough incentive right now then there will never be.
The defense of Europe has to be the US priority, not the EU's, is what I gather.

We further are to incentive them so they don't resent us.
 

Attachments

  • 66d708_1_grand_defence-expenditures_2022_nato.jpg
    66d708_1_grand_defence-expenditures_2022_nato.jpg
    81.5 KB · Views: 17
Good. Tighten the chain. The Liberal World Order should be maintained at all costs.
The missed opportunity was in the early days of the post cold war era when Russia inquired about NATO membership. We should have jumped at the opportunity and devised a path to that end.
 
If I remember correctly, Putin asked once to join NATO, and when he was told to go trough standard methods of application he refused, wanting a star treatment. It was him who refused the opportunity, not NATO.
Russia was anyway a member of the Partnership for Peace, Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and so on, and yet it did not prevended anything. With certain ***** in the lead, any membership or treaty is just a piece of paper.
I'm happy as .... for we managed to join NATO in time.
 
A different perspective - actual funding rather than %GDP:

nato-2024.jpg


Note that this really shows the impact of the different GDPs.
 
Also putting things in context over a longer period (although only for a couple of countries):

military_spending_web-2-1200x0-c-default.jpg


One thing I would point out in this is that from 1992 onwards we see Germany's reported military spending drop. One should probably remember that this would align with the reunification of East & West Germany which could be considered a non-military contribution. Remember that this has been estimated as costing up to 2M Euro.
 
There is a real possibility of the U.S. dropping out of NATO and leaving European defense spending entirely in European hands. While this may shock some of our allies, it would certainly generate a review of the current state of affairs and a determination to develop at least near-term plans. Should some conflict occur in the near future, coordinated planning is needed right now. Emergency spending would occur and available forces would be placed on the front lines. I am sure that joint US/UK bases would remain unaffected.
 
A different perspective - actual funding rather than %GDP:

nato-2024.jpg


Note that this really shows the impact of the different GDPs.
What does that chart look like when you don't truncate the US number? Much more like this one from last year?
 

Attachments

  • 14636.jpeg
    14636.jpeg
    767.9 KB · Views: 8
A different perspective - actual funding rather than %GDP:

nato-2024.jpg


Note that this really shows the impact of the different GDPs.

And if you add the non-US figures you get around 500,000 million US dollars.

And, as ably pointed out by DWG - the US spend is NOT ONLY for NATO, but also Asia-Pacific, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and doubtless others.

Germany, and most other European NATO members are largely spending for European defence.
 
Last edited:
And if you add the non-US figures you get around 500,000 million US dollars.

And, as ably pointed out by DWG - the US spend is NOT ONLY for NATO, but also Asia-Pacific, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and doubtless others.

Germany, and most other European NATO members are largely spending for European defence.
Would you say we spend a third of our budget on European defense? Perhaps a fourth? Surely the nuclear deterrent forces count. That's about $40 billion a year according to the CBO. $60 billion if we count the DOE weapon labs which never get accounted to Dept of Defense spending. That's 2/3 of Germany's defense spending without a single conventional weapon or soldier ever going to Europe.

Correct my math here, but if only a tenth of the DOD money we spend ever goes to europe (which is a ridiculous number no one would dare be bold enough to actually support) we still spend more on European spending than Germany's defense budget. I was just told earlier that nations closer to the front line were supposed to be more obligated and those further away were to be less. Is that less true than it was when it was said a day or two ago? Is there some other calculus that demands we spend way more than our European "partners"?
 
I was just told earlier that nations closer to the front line were supposed to be more obligated and those further away were to be less. Is that less true than it was when it was said a day or two ago?
Generally it is true - look at Poland and the Baltic states:

Image 27-12-2024 at 4.11 am.jpeg

That said, spending will naturally vary depending upon what is being paid for. Moreover, one has to be able to use the budgets - no point just buying heaps of equipment if one doesn't have the trained staff to be able to use.


Is there some other calculus that demands we spend way more than our European "partners"?
It is a combination of the bigger GDP of the USA and the historically greater "want" to spend on the military (a whole subject for discussion...). There is nothing other than internal US choices that drives the US spend though.
 
This discussion started with @zen asking for our thoughts about 'Trump wants 5% Nato defence spending target, Europe told'.
I do not know if Europe will ever reach that target. Raising European defence budgets is work in progress, with more to come because of the war in Ukraine, but blindly shoveling money into European defence will not fix overnight the decay that was caused by years of neglect. Anyone who spins that yarn is a fool or a fraud, maybe both.
 
Last edited:
I find it genuinely curious that the former Baltic states (and Finland) have convinced their populaces that Russia is actually a 'threat' whereas in reality the spend is all about meeting their treaty obligations and making the 'right' noises (the same goes with idiots on the Russian side making stupid comments to bait the press)

An example of the 'threat', The former Soviet Karelia region east of Finland is an empty other than forest and farmland with very little evidence of any military buildup during the past 50 years ! (that might well change in response in time to come tho ?)
 
I find it genuinely curious that the former Baltic states (and Finland) have convinced their populaces that Russia is actually a 'threat' whereas in reality the spend is all about meeting their treaty obligations and making the 'right' noises (the same goes with idiots on the Russian side making stupid comments to bait the press)
Given what has happened in Ukraine and their history with Russia, all do believe, with good reason, that Russia is a genuine threat. I don't believe there is any false narrative involved.
 
Generally it is true...
...
It is a combination of the bigger GDP of the USA and the historically greater "want" to spend on the military (a whole subject for discussion...).
Is there a cogent reason that the we are devoting more money to European defense than say great continental powers Germany, France, Italy and Spain combined? Our defense spending in general is more than the rest of NATO en masse. Can you articulate an argument why the United States must stay in an unequally yoked agreement with such powers if they now decide not to "want" to spend more money on the military, particularly for European defense?
If Europe is facing another boogeyman, surely those countries (rich EU countries) most concerned should "want" to spend more to reflect that reality, right? Or do they not really believe in that threat? Or is it because "historically" they could "want" to spend less because they knew their rich uncle would underwrite their defense while they invested in their own citizenry? Surely the EU representing 3/4 of our GDP collectively could comfortably muster more than 1/2 of our spending in the face of such an existential threat, could it not?
 
This is about threat assessment. Countries go to war for a finite number of reasons. This has always been true. Average people are not privy to classified information. What were the specific missions carried out by the U-2 and SR-71? What were they looking for? Troop movements. New construction. An increase in shipments to off-limits sites. New radars. Other new activity, such as mining. On the money side, is there evidence the Russians and Chinese are spending more on defense? In what areas?

That is what is driving spending for defense. Not, we don't see attacks on other European countries in the near future so we'll just hold off on spending.

In the past, the king had a war chest he could draw on in case war was looming. Russia has a history of being expansionist. China appears to be fixated on Taiwan. It has also expanded its space exploration plans.
 
Europe is shamefully, stupidly late in rebuilding its defence. But this is where we are. If I read European politics right, the message of the war against Ukraine - the one that started in 2014 - has finally sunk in. I think defence funding in Europe will be raised even more, though I doubt +5% will ever be reached. Russia, with its hands full in the current war, is no immediate threat to NATO - unless nukes are thrown. Even so, Finland and Sweden have been scared into joining NATO, because that war in Ukraine will end eventually. Right?
Then, Russia might want to pick up where it left off. In Moldova, which lost Transnistria. In Georgia, which lost Abkhazia, and Southern Ossetia. With Finland in NATO, grabbing the rest of Karelia might pose a challenge, but hey...
 
Is there a cogent reason that the we are devoting more money to European defense than say great continental powers Germany, France, Italy and Spain combined?
The budgets/numbers shown int his thread are whole of Defence budgets. NATO spending does not just equal European Defence spending. As for a "cogent argument", I suggest you ask the US Govt. Note however that most requests to cut the US Defense budget aren't supported...
Can you articulate an argument why the United States must stay in an unequally yoked agreement with such powers if they now decide not to "want" to spend more money on the military, particularly for European defense?
Stop acting like the US is forced into NATO - it has been the dominant member since its inception over 75yrs ago. As for spending more, the majority of members are actually meeting or exceeding their mutually agreed to 2% of GDP guideline.

There are also some pertinent points made in the following:


And there are other similar articles etc around.
 
Last edited:
To be realistic, Cold War II probably will require at least 5% of GDP for NATO members but far in excess of that for the United States. Reagan spent over 6% of GDP on his defense buildup but we're starting from a much smaller industrial base in just about every defense sector. Reagan was getting a comparatively good deal, as there was lots of underutilized capacity and inflation was falling. The expenditure levels of the Eisenhauer era are a better guide to what it will take for Cold War II, with in excess of 11% of GDP going to defense in 1953 and around 9% in 1960. Europe didn't carry its fair share during the Cold War and it won't time either.

Realistically, NATO expansion has brought a much longer front to protect, even if some of the larger members like Poland were worthwhile additions. Moreover, we're in a far worse diplomatic position than in 1980. The diplomatic break under Kruschev and Nixon's brilliant diplomacy made China our ally against the Soviets. At times, the Soviets were more afraid of a conflict at the Chinese border than with NATO. And rightly so, considering that China had unpredictable attacked India under Mao and Vietnam under Deng. Now we're potentially facing a massive Eurasian axis of Russia, Iran, China and North Korea. China is not the dying giant the Soviet Union was.
 
Off-topic, but I can't let this just slide.

Europeans get their nice public services because they don't spend on defense because American tax payers are protecting them. That's been the game for decades. Americans across both sides of the aisle are pretty tired of it. Especially as the debt service now looms higher than Defense spending.

Respectfully, but NO. The US and Europe both have exactly the public services their respective electorates keep demanding. By the standards of a populace ostensibly clamoring for better public services, Americans sure vote for candidates loudly proclaiming the radical curtailing of said services with astounding and monotonous regularity...

So don't blame that on Europe - it's a situation entirely of your own making. If you believe things are going to improve by leaps and bounds in this regard if only Europe becomes more self-reliant in defence matters, I think you are in for a rude awakening. For one, as DWG and I and others have been pointing out, you will start by finding that the share of the US defence budget devoted exclusively to covering for shortfalls in European spending isn't equal to the cost of maintaining US overseas presence. There are plenty of purely US-held interests which will require continued global engagement, with all the attendant logistics.

You'd still be left with a huge defence budget, and I further wager that what money was set free would end up being mostly used for purposes other than public services. That's a deliberate choice Americans have made, and reaffirmed, on many occasions - it's not an attitude which is going to disappear just because Europe starts contributing its fair share on defence spending. Which, as mentioned elsewhere, it definitely should - just stop tying that to things which are plainly caused by other factors.
 

Similar threads

Please donate to support the forum.

Back
Top Bottom