Who got the UK into the current financial mess?
Err... a cabal of public school yobs who treated government like their private playground over the recent past? BoJo and Truss the absolute worst of them?
<edit> If this answer has earned me a prize, PM me for my bank account number </edit>
 
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If convinced that people threaten our way of life, our national values, or even just cause us to follow more of the 'hard nosed realist' school of thought we might increase our defense spending substantially.

Surely Canada could develop a credible nuclear deterrent against U.S. threats to Canadian sovereignty for a lot less than 5% of our GDP though?

A couple hundred nuclear tipped SRBMs doesn't cost more than 107 billion per year right? After a few years we'd probably even have enough left over for some SLBMs stationed in the Arctic archipelago (those waters could make some nice bastions for submersible drones).

P.S. I felt I should meet the energy of some of the posts in this thread with something equally insane.
 
No While I spent over a hour typing out very carefully in as neutral a way as I could what I think might happen. Even hope happen.
I can't exclude the possibility it's all too political and what seems to me uncontroversial is to others clearly so.
Thus I copied it to my notes and deleted. Huzzah for self censorship, the ultimate achievement of our censorious times.

So I'll simply say if Trump’s move works, it will help bring about the changes needed so badly. But what suits America, doesn't suit the UK or Europe and if I may be allowed one actual political view to express here....
It really is time to accept that trying to become like the US is fundamentally a cruel thing to do to European peoples.
 
No one has forgotten. The enemy gave up. Russians forces were withdrawn from Eastern Europe. The drawdown was entirely predictable. You don't deploy defenses against a retreating enemy. You keep watch.
So your point is when the US does it it's okay, but when Europe does it it isn't. Right, got you.
 
One idea is compulsory military service of one year for all eligible in the EU and UK.

Why change professional military forces into a bunch of shambling amateurs on the Russian model?

Who got the UK into the current financial mess?

A bunch of self-interested populist neo-cons and incompetent libertarian fanatics. Sound familiar?
 
So less of an alliance and more of a protection racket ?
When an alliance requires a certain level of spending and members have not been meeting that spending level, why should the alliance protect those that aren't doing their part?


I think many/most European/NATO (and beyond - Australia for example) nations realise that an increase in Defence spending /capability/capacity is required. Look at recent comments from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte calling for increased spending. The issue with comments from trump though is that they carry an implied "or else" (anyone need reminding re his comments re encouraging Russia to dowhatever the hell they want”?) This is the part (especially when combined with other comments) that in unacceptable and comes across as blackmail. Mobster diplomacy is unacceptable.
Diplomacy in Europe has long been under the Mobster model.
 
When an alliance requires a certain level of spending
It's a target, not a mandate. Semantics are important, specifically:
Taking current commitments into account, we are guided by the following considerations:
o Allies currently meeting the NATO guideline to spend a minimum of 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defence will aim to continue to do so. Likewise, Allies spending more than 20% of their defence budgets on major equipment, including related Research & Development, will continue to do so.
o Allies whose current proportion of GDP spent on defence is below this level will:
 halt any decline in defence expenditure;
 aim to increase defence expenditure in real terms as GDP grows;
 aim to move towards the 2% guideline within a decade with a view to meeting their NATO Capability Targets and filling NATO's capability shortfall.
(Wales Summit Declaration, Article 14)

Any lawyer will point out that "aim to move towards" is far short of "commit to move to". And whoever drafted this will have recognised that, as will all the nations attending.
 
It's a target, not a mandate. Semantics are important, specifically:


Any lawyer will point out that "aim to move towards" is far short of "commit to move to". And whoever drafted this will have recognised that, as will all the nations attending.
And Trump will threaten to withdraw from NATO unless every nation commits to a minimum of 2% in the next Summit.

"Obviously you don't intend to maintain your own defenses, but intend to mooch off of the United States. That stops NOW."
 
And Trump will threaten to withdraw from NATO unless every nation commits to a minimum of 2% in the next Summit.

"Obviously you don't intend to maintain your own defenses, but intend to mooch off of the United States. That stops NOW."
How well do you expect that to go down? Even if that's what happens, and everyone agrees, Trump, and by extension the US, will be looked on with contempt. No one likes a bully.

There's a political cost to the US in this kind of behaviour. Trump doesn't seem to understand this, but everyone outside of the US does.

Equally if the US withdraws from NATO, the pursuit of US aims in Africa, the Middle East and Asia becomes much more complicated. If the US isn't contributing to Alliance defence, why should the Alliance contribute to US defence interests, such as allowing basing or military overflights en route to the Middle East or Africa? Particularly if US and European positions diverge, such as seen over Israel.
 
The world has changed, Europe accounts for a falling share of global GDP. The USA is in the same boat, but has been significantly cushioned by the vigor of the US economy and the vim of its technological industries.

It is a sixth of the world, not a quarter, not a third.

The Chinese are not the only player on the world stage; over the next fifty years, it can be forseen that India, Indonesia, Turkey and other major economies will begin to pose some degree of challenge to European interests. These can be managed via many strategies - cooperative, competitive, or a mix of the above.

With the Americans playing offshore balancer in the big leagues in East Asia, Europe needs to determine what its security needs are. Is the goal just to keep the Russians beyond the Bug? Are the Turks in or out? What about North Africa? Keeping the Russians out can be done with a fairly modest investment - Ukraine has demonstrated their significant limitations, and will tarpit the Russians for a decade - but if you want to keep the Russians on the backfoot and deal with North Africa and the Turks and hold fast in the mideast, plus be resilient to nations seeking influence from all corners of the earth - that's when 5 percent spending and a significantly revamped state will come in handy.

Unfortunately, Europe isn't quite unified enough to produce a coherent policy.



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How well do you expect that to go down? Even if that's what happens, and everyone agrees, Trump, and by extension the US, will be looked on with contempt. No one likes a bully.
This is going to sound harsh to your ears, and it's certainly not directed at you in particular or anyone else here, but ...
This particular American is past giving a $#! about how it goes down, or how many dirty looks look down past european noses.
Europeans get their nice public services because they don't spend on defense because American tax payers are protecting them. That's been the game for decades. Americans across both sides of the aisle are pretty tired of it. Especially as the debt service now looms higher than Defense spending.
Pull your weight, or kick rocks. No more free rides. We've got our own pressing problems at home. 3% should be the minimum any serious nation-state is spending on defense. If you don't care enough about your country's sovereignty to spend 3% on defense, why should I care more about your sovereignty than you do? If it's not a priority for you, it's certainly not a priority for me.

We're broke, and we're subsidizing other countries. It's like paying rent for your buddy because he says he can't afford it right now, but then you see him with a new car stereo.
 
Well I do congratulate Trump for bringing up the BRICS problem although I don't know if he can resolve that problem. I am still under the impression europe has an energy crisis issue because they could have immediately restarted their production in shells, armored vehicles, etc at any time for Ukraine than having to hear Ukraine say their adversary has 10 times the firepower they do. Not to get into too much political details but the war currently looks like it will end somewhere in 2025 from just seeing the multiple mobilization laws that keep lowering the draft age along with today reports of mothers with teens leaving the country. I think the euros no longer see a point to raise it to 5% for military spending
Relying on Russian natural gas certainly was a grave mistake caused by greedy financial markets rater than prudent strategic considerations.
 
Article 5 ,Canada has already paid to the tune of 158 dead soldiers.
And while personally I think we should be bearing more of the Defence burden. I would like to see a gradual increase in spending to a maximum 2.5 to 3 % during peace time . Although as I recall during the early 50's we spending some where near 7% up until I believe 1957.
We could afford to do that then as well. I doubt we could do that now. Also it takes time to rebuild an industrial base.
Captain Bonespurs seems to lack the an understanding of what is involved in the sort of massive military buildup.
He is neither a builder nor a strategist he's an arsonist. With a zenephobia and a provincialism that would shame a medieval peasant
Maybe it's time for Canada to consider Nuclear weapons?/
 
And to provide some context, here is NATO Defence spending as %GDP as of mid 2024:

View attachment 753327

As can be seen most are already at or above the desired 2% level. But to go to 5% is not something that is easily done as it means most will have to double their spends.
and that is why i agree that we need to get the nations that spend less than 2% to 2%, Italy included, i red it was increased to 1.62 last year but apparently not, the news i red maybe were less than complete
 
I think 2% is way too generic to be applied strictly uniformly across all countries - there are simply too many factors like geographical area, population size and density, topography, infrastructure, GDP, length of land vs. sea borders, proximity to Putinland, etc. to use it as a hard metric.
 
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2.5 to 3% would seem reasonable and attainable in the short to medium term. Money spent on defence is not necessariy lost.

If the US leaves NATO, even on a short (Presidential) term, I can see more european etc money going into european defence projects which would give LM and Boing a proper kick in the 'nads.

What would that do to US defence procurement?

All very vague I know but imho, whatever the trumpster does, the US will take a while to return from.
 
Percent spending is *irrelevant*, it only allows generals, politicians and defense firm shareholders to funnel more money into their private offshore accounts.

What is needed is true loyalty to the people and the nation, a will unwavering when confronted with the most tempting of wealth and prosperity. True moral.

Unfortunately that is a trait many today lack. Even something as tax avoidance is quite common, everywhere, not just the States. Many would rather stock up money than contribute to the greater good.

And a world in which such behaviours don't exist might as well be 99.9% utopia.
 
i disagree with this, it's not a concept of loyalty to the nation or the people, it's a matter of laws, to be followed, if the document states the minimum is set at 2% everyone has, regardless of issues, to follow the rule of the document, and for the record everyone has to follow this rule, and no, even in previous historical situations people avoided paying taxes, this isn't about morals, it's about laws, regulations and every member of this alliance to follow the rules we subscribed to in 48
 
i disagree with this, it's not a concept of loyalty to the nation or the people,
It *pretty much* is. Someone with basic decency wouldn't exploit the opportunity to reap benefits for themselves at the expense of others. We wouldn't have Darleen Druyun if people know and follow their task and don't try being terrible.
it's a matter of laws, to be followed,
Plenty engaged in corruption without breaking the law. The Western-aligned calls it "lobbying" but when the rest of the world try they get the corruption placard.
if the document states the minimum is set at 2% everyone has, regardless of issues, to follow the rule of the document, and for the record everyone has to follow this rule, and no, even in previous historical situations people avoided paying taxes, this isn't about morals, it's about laws, regulations and every member of this alliance to follow the rules we subscribed to in 48
Well I have no idea what this is about. You could try being clearer.
I mentioned tax avoidance as an example of common not-law-violating practices that actively damages a government revenue. Might I also mention CYA?
 
this argument leads literaly nowhere, i would say this is just an argument in the making that leads only to nothing but more and more arguing, this has no connotation nor leads to any opportunity for a dialogue to be had because i know you'll try to dismiss any response, sorry but i don't want to engage in this, all i say is the following
All the NATO members need to follow at least the 2% GDP for defense minimum, if some fund more of it that is ok, but Trump has no right to order people around from other countries with this brutish and blackmailing type of targets he alone should know take more than just a law in parliament to be passed, Trumps desires are ludicrous on NATO, and that is all, you can ramble about taxes somewhere else because this thread is about NATO, not taxes, loyalty to nations or any of the following
It *pretty much* is. Someone with basic decency wouldn't exploit the opportunity to reap benefits for themselves at the expense of others. We wouldn't have Darleen Druyun if people know and follow their task and don't try being terrible.

Plenty engaged in corruption without breaking the law. The Western-aligned calls it "lobbying" but when the rest of the world try they get the corruption placard.

Well I have no idea what this is about. You could try being clearer.
I mentioned tax avoidance as an example of common not-law-violating practices that actively damages a government revenue. Might I also mention CYA?
 
this argument leads literaly nowhere, i would say this is just an argument in the making that leads only to nothing but more and more arguing, this has no connotation nor leads to any opportunity for a dialogue to be had because i know you'll try to dismiss any response, sorry but i don't want to engage in this, all i say is the following
Accurate.
All the NATO members need to follow at least the 2% GDP for defense minimum, if some fund more of it that is ok
I don't know why you're repeating this, I thought meeting the mandated spending threshold was always a NATO rule?
, but Trump has no right to order people around from other countries with this brutish and blackmailing type of targets he alone
  1. You're getting fed up over Trump being the typical sensationalist he is. That's how he caused widespread domestic chaos in the extreme left crowd after election day. Chill mate. It's not worth it.
  2. I agreed that a 5% mandate would lead to nowhere. Just raising the spending level is too simple to even consider.
should know take more than just a law in parliament to be passed, Trumps desires are ludicrous on NATO, and that is all, you can ramble about taxes somewhere else because this thread is about NATO, not taxes, loyalty to nations or any of the following
Except that for spending to be effective, deficit must be minimal. Corruption, in all of its forms, is a major cause of deficit.
 
Maybe it's time for Canada to consider Nuclear weapons?/

Theoretically, if one were to ask most military strategist or international relations people... a country with an 8890 km (5520 mile) largely undefended border with a historic adversary that has more than eight times your population... would be the country where a nuclear deterrent would be expected to be prioritised. We also have the capacity to build our own nuclear weapons within a relatively short period of time.
 
Unresponsive. At best it suggests that Trump thinks that the delinquent members of NATO should pay the US for US carrying the spending in the past, not that NATO membership means dues paid to the US.
 
The incoming President made a proposal. Those who agree will be protected. Those who do not will fend for themselves. No enforcers will be sent to bully anyone.
 
The incoming President made a proposal. Those who agree will be protected. Those who do not will fend for themselves.

So if you're proposing to ignore your responsibilities under Article 5, increasing the threat to the rest of the Alliance by encouraging Vlad to try annexing NATO territory, why would anyone else meet theirs if and when the US tries to invoke it?

You see the problem?

Of course this could be Vlad's plan working as designed.
 
One idea is compulsory military service of one year for all eligible in the EU and UK. Who got the UK into the current financial mess? The same with Canada, France and Germany.
The issue then being that that will be a major money pit for very little in return. You'd have to design your entire military around conscription (i.e. like Finland and Sweden) and there has to be the willpower to do so, and neither of those things is present in Western Europe. Arguably, what nations like the UK, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Portugal and Italy should be focusing on is naval and air power, whilst making their armies more deployable.
 
Not mine so much, but the Baltics are very much in his sights, and historically the Grand Duchy of Finland was Russian too.
If our European partners are so heavily concerned about this, why aren't they spending adequate money on defending themselves against this possibility? Is it because they know it's historically been underwritten by US taxpayers so don't actually care to spend their own money? Or are they not genuinely concerned?
 
I am still under the impression europe has an energy crisis issue because they could have immediately restarted their production in shells, armored vehicles, etc at any time for Ukraine than having to hear Ukraine say their adversary has 10 times the firepower they do.
Such things take time to set up. The money was sent to the companies in 2022, but it takes time to rebuild capacity to necessary levels. I saw predictions back in 2022 saying that we wouldn't see the actual results until 2024 and they were correct. I also don't see a conclusion to this conflict any time soon, especially a lasting one.
 
If our European partners are so heavily concerned about this, why aren't they spending adequate money on defending themselves against this possibility? Is it because they know it's historically been underwritten by US taxpayers so don't actually care to spend their own money? Or are they not genuinely concerned?
35 years of complacency, which should have ended in 2014. Note, this applies to the entire West, including the US. Frankly I'm aghast budgets didn't skyrocket, and by that I mean to greater than Cold War levels in order to rearm with a future drop to Cold War levels after rearmament, after the invasion of Ukraine, especially with the threat of Trump being reelected, like he has been.

It's like someone ignoring a cancer diagnosis because thinking about it distresses them, rather than "taking arms against a sea of troubles". Wishful thinking rather than planning for worst cases, like political leadership should be doing.
 
He has said the breakup of the USSR was the greatest tragedy of the 20th century, which would imply even more so than the world wars. He wants to reconquer the empire and undo that history. That's your particular reason.

Well then. Europe can sit back and enjoy the show. Free of any financial burden. The U.S. will intervene at some point as it did by the end of World War I and the final months of World War II. More of those Yanks in England I'm afraid...
 
If our European partners are so heavily concerned about this, why aren't they spending adequate money on defending themselves against this possibility? Is it because they know it's historically been underwritten by US taxpayers so don't actually care to spend their own money? Or are they not genuinely concerned?
They are spending - if you look at the graph I posted back at Reply #53, you will see that the Baltic states are running at around ~3% of GDP. The reality for all nations though (not just the European ones, is that the cost of living pressures have put most democratic governments in a classic "guns vs butter" situation whereby they are under a lost of pressure to also spend on non-Defence related aspects.
 

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