Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF)

Forest Green said:
F-35 combat debut?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1837469373625217437
View: https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1837469373625217437
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This is going to be hugely controversial and is highly likely to get deleted by mods immediately, but the US never should've given F-35s to Israel without any supervision. Here's my reasoning:

1) They have the best equipped Air Force in a region where almost all of the possible threats to Israel either have a mediocre, almost non-existing air power or an incompitent Air Force with little to no combat experience, no logistics and no local defence industry. Even without any F-35s, the IAF can decisively win and make Iran bleed badly as they're regularly showing us as of late.

2) Whereas Iran aspires to be a nuclear power (though actually uses the mere threat of it as a political tool); Israel actually is a nuclear power with various means of delivering the warheads in long distances. Allowing them to be nuclear doesn't make sense from America's position when they are strictly against Japan and Korea going nuclear.

3) Just the US political backing alone would suffice to dissuade even China from being threatening to Israel (Had both Israel and Iran weren't paranoid and didn't pursue maximalist expansionism at the expense of all the human rights there is).

All they give to the US in return is nothing but making America suffer and look bad; accelerating the establishment of a multipolar world order which is against American interests. That whole "Bastion of American influence in the Middle East" stuff ended 33 years ago.

I'm open to a discussion if any of you can give me a credible reason why America was right to give them the current holy grail of air power.
 
F-35 does not seem central to their air operations. They have developed numerous stand off weapons that would work just as well in most scenarios. I am not sure specifically what the IDF uses F-35 for but I would suspect that penetrating munitions are the big upside.

From a political standpoint, the U.S. is already completely in bed with Israel to the tune of thousands of tons of weapons delivered since Hamas started the war. Denying the IAF the F-35 amounts to taking the cherry off your hot fudge sundae; the U.S. and Israel are deeply intertwined regardless.
 
snne said:
3) Just the US political backing alone would suffice to dissuade even China from being threatening to Israel (Had both Israel and Iran weren't paranoid and didn't pursue maximalist expansionism at the expense of all the human rights there is).
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This is... utterly decoupled from history, geopolitics, and reality.

That said, press releases and marketing notwithstanding, the F-35 is a substantial upgrade, not a fundamental game changer for Israel. There were always other ways to bring effectors and targets together, from bullets to nukes. I suspect there was some knowledge transfer back our direction from their in-house avionics mods as well.

Most importantly, the more we sell, the cheaper the unit cost. Israel buying in meant other allies could potentially order more jets.
 
Both of you are not seeing the whole picture that I am presenting.

  • I already wrote that they could take out any other Air Force in the region without the F-35. (Including Iran, Egpyt and Gulf countries)
  • I already wrote that they have nuclear weapons with options of delivering them to far away distances (including Western Europe and India)
  • Obviously theAmerican military support is not only limited to F-35s, but the meaning behind my sentences is that this particular conventional strike option enables Israel to be even more daring and take more risks; causing huge turmoil
All of this is simply too much for a country that is the size of New Jersey with the population of 8 million Jews. (don't play the "bu..bu..but...the genocide" card, all of this power is too much for not only Israel but for any country)

The real purpose of their F-35s is not to hunt Persian-backed actors but to make it easier for Israel to shape the region to their will with their overwhelming military advantage without causing a nuclear war. This is pretty observable with the Abraham Accords and how Israel's neighbours have been reacting to their actions ever since they've received the first jets. the Emiratis have even went out of their way to get the jets before the US arrogantly overplayed its hand.

All that combat experience of going from A to B and dropping JDAMs at B that Israel has done and the feedback that they've given is minuscule compared to US Military's experience with the jet around the world, be it in the Middle East, in the Baltics intercepting Russian jets or flying around South and East China Sea in complex (potential-) combat environments. It's not like tIsraeli industrial involvement in the jets development is large enough to mean something anyway (by that I mean their footprint in the jets that are flying around today, not just the "Adirs").
 
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Perhaps I am missing nuance. My personal opinion is that the F-35 changes absolutely nothing about the strategic capabilities of the IDF or more broadly the objectives and capabilities of all the actors in the region. You seem to think differently, but I do not see any specific details or arguments in your posts to support that.

At the end of the day, it is simply a tactical aircraft, not completely divorced from the capability of other models.
 
snne said:
This is going to be hugely controversial and is highly likely to get deleted by mods immediately, but the US never should've given F-35s to Israel without any supervision. Here's my reasoning:

1) They have the best equipped Air Force in a region where almost all of the possible threats to Israel either have a mediocre, almost non-existing air power or an incompitent Air Force with little to no combat experience, no logistics and no local defence industry. Even without any F-35s, the IAF can decisively win and make Iran bleed badly as they're regularly showing us as of late.

2) Whereas Iran aspires to be a nuclear power (though actually uses the mere threat of it as a political tool); Israel actually is a nuclear power with various means of delivering the warheads in long distances. Allowing them to be nuclear doesn't make sense from America's position when they are strictly against Japan and Korea going nuclear.

3) Just the US political backing alone would suffice to dissuade even China from being threatening to Israel (Had both Israel and Iran weren't paranoid and didn't pursue maximalist expansionism at the expense of all the human rights there is).

All they give to the US in return is nothing but making America suffer and look bad; accelerating the establishment of a multipolar world order which is against American interests. That whole "Bastion of American influence in the Middle East" stuff ended 33 years ago.

I'm open to a discussion if any of you can give me a credible reason why America was right to give them the current holy grail of air power.
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Because they are the only democracy in the ME a beacon of freedom to the world.

They are also our ally and deserve as much military overmatch as we can provide them.
 
bobbymike said:
Because they are the only democracy in the ME a beacon of freedom to the world.

They are also our ally and deserve as much military overmatch as we can provide them.
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Technically they are not the only Democracy in the Middle East. There are multiple democracies there of varying degrees

That said, let's focus on the platform not on geopolitics.
 
snne said:
Both of you are not seeing the whole picture that I am presenting.

  • I already wrote that they could take out any other Air Force in the region without the F-35. (Including Iran, Egpyt and Gulf countries)
  • I already wrote that they have nuclear weapons with options of delivering them to far away distances (including Western Europe and India)
  • Obviously theAmerican military support is not only limited to F-35s, but the meaning behind my sentences is that this particular conventional strike option enables Israel to be even more daring and take more risks; causing huge turmoil
All of this is simply too much for a country that is the size of New Jersey with the population of 8 million Jews. (don't play the "bu..bu..but...the genocide" card, all of this power is too much for not only Israel but for any country)

The real purpose of their F-35s is not to hunt Persian-backed actors but to make it easier for Israel to shape the region to their will with their overwhelming military advantage without causing a nuclear war. This is pretty observable with the Abraham Accords and how Israel's neighbours have been reacting to their actions ever since they've received the first jets. the Emiratis have even went out of their way to get the jets before the US arrogantly overplayed its hand.

All that combat experience of going from A to B and dropping JDAMs at B that Israel has done and the feedback that they've given is minuscule compared to US Military's experience with the jet around the world, be it in the Middle East, in the Baltics intercepting Russian jets or flying around South and East China Sea in complex (potential-) combat environments. It's not like tIsraeli industrial involvement in the jets development is large enough to mean something anyway (by that I mean their footprint in the jets that are flying around today, not just the "Adirs").
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The f35 reinforce Israel’s ability to hit Iranian targets. It’s an explicit message to Iran.

The wests method of gaining air superiority, now relies on having a fleet of stealth aircraft, at least for higher tier threats.
 
The biggest advantage of the F-35 in that theater is the LO and organic EW capability complementing their existing EW capability against the Iranian, Russian, and Syrian IADS apparatus. It almost certainly enables TTPs that were not viable without it and strengthens the implied threat that Israel can hold well-protected targets at risk deep in Iran. That in and of itself is a geopolitical incentive that materially aligns with US interests and current policy.

But, even if nothing else, it's valuable to the US in that we get to see the platform flown against some of the Russian made SAM systems we are most interested in. It is a good way to validate, test, and assess tactics and capabilities in real world use at the risk of somebody else's money and hardware.
 
GTX said:
Technically they are not the only Democracy in the Middle East. There are multiple democracies there of varying degrees

That said, let's focus on the platform not on geopolitics.
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Why Are There No Arab Democracies? | Journal of Democracy

Democracy has held its own or gained ground in just about every part of the world except for the Arab Middle East. Why has this crucial region remained such infertile soil for democracy?
www.journalofdemocracy.org www.journalofdemocracy.org
 
GreenBullet said:
The biggest advantage of the F-35 in that theater is the LO and organic EW capability complementing their existing EW capability against the Iranian, Russian, and Syrian IADS apparatus. It almost certainly enables TTPs that were not viable without it and strengthens the implied threat that Israel can hold well-protected targets at risk deep in Iran. That in and of itself is a geopolitical incentive that materially aligns with US interests and current policy.

But, even if nothing else, it's valuable to the US in that we get to see the platform flown against some of the Russian made SAM systems we are most interested in. It is a good way to validate, test, and assess tactics and capabilities in real world use at the risk of somebody else's money and hardware.
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If it was all about gaining intel on modern Russian systems; why block the sale of F-35s to Turkey, an important NATO ally, at the last minute then? Why also kick their industrial participation out if all of this bullshittery that America has caused wasn't political, just technical according to the position the US has taken regarding this issue? They could've even had this same kind of experience in a controlled manner in a NATO country; they could've participated in multinational exercises (which is something Turkey already offers) against the S-400 in a controlled environment if it really meant a lot for them. Moreover, it isn't just Israel that gives feedback to America, there's a whole list of F-35 operators that also gain experience in a set of diverse environments that send feedback to Lockheed.

---I've received replies from 3 different people till now and all of your inability to come up with a single credible reason why America is right to support Israel to the very end and right to give away F-35s without any supervision whatsoever really strengthens my point here.----

This is my last post on this topic that I've started; so cheers to all :)
 
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snne said:
I've received replies from 3 different people till now and all of your inability to come up with a single credible reason why America is right to support Israel to the very end and right to give away F-35s without any supervision whatsoever really strengthens my point here
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The simplest response to you is that that the U.S. providing cutting edge weapons to Israel is literally a requirement of American law.

Beginning around 2008, legislation was introduced which mandates that the U.S. maintain Israel’s “Qualitative Military Edge”. This is defined as “Israel’s ability to counter and defeat credible military threats from any individual state, coalition of states, or non-state actor, while sustaining minimal damages or casualties.”

This is the lens through which U.S. Arms sales and defense aid to Israel is assessed.

Right and wrong are going to be subjective and likely stray into a political sphere that this Forum doesn’t invite (to my knowledge). However the sale was consistent with U.S. policy requirements regarding Israeli’s military advantage regionally, and one can see how a low observable type might especially speak to the “…while sustaining minimal damages or casualties” element of the QME definition.
 
snne said:
If it was all about gaining intel on modern Russian systems; why block the sale of F-35s to Turkey, an important NATO ally, at the last minute then? Why also kick their industrial participation out if all of this bullshittery that America has caused wasn't political, just technical according to the position the US has taken regarding this issue? They could've even had this same kind of experience in a controlled manner in a NATO country; they could've participated in multinational exercises (which is something Turkey already offers) against the S-400 in a controlled environment if it really meant a lot for them. Moreover, it isn't just Israel that gives feedback to America, there's a whole list of F-35 operators that also gain experience in a set of diverse environments that send feedback to Lockheed.

---I've received replies from 3 different people till now and all of your inability to come up with a single credible reason why America is right to support Israel to the very end and right to give away F-35s without any supervision whatsoever really strengthens my point here.----

This is my last post on this topic that I've started; so cheers to all :)
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Credibility and you not liking the replies are two very different things.
 
Well it looks like the US and Turkey have reached a deal to decommission its' SA-21 Growler batteries in return for getting back into the JSF programme:

Turkey Nears Deal to Decommission S-400 Air Defences and Return to F-35 Fighter Program - Reports

Turkey has reportedly made significant progress in talks with the United States on the details of plans to decommission Russian supplied S-400 long range air defence systems, which is intended to facilitate the NATO member’s resumption of acquisitions of F-35 fifth generation fighters and possibly its full reentry into the F-35 program as a Tier 3 partner. Turkey was formally evicted from the F-35 program in July 2019, after receiving its first components from its S-400 system earlier that month, with Washington having used access to the F-35 to impose pressure on Ankara to abide by NATO’s wider policy of denying arms revenues to the Russian defence sector.
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So it looks like Turkey maybe getting its F-35s starting next year. Before Turkey got the boot from the programme in July, 2019 how many F-35s had been built for it?
 
NMaude said:
Well it looks like the US and Turkey have reached a deal to decommission its' SA-21 Growler batteries in return for getting back into the JSF programme:

Turkey Nears Deal to Decommission S-400 Air Defences and Return to F-35 Fighter Program - Reports



So it looks like Turkey maybe getting its F-35s starting next year. Before Turkey got the boot from the programme in July, 2019 how many F-35s had been built for it?
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Think it was maybe eight or ten?

More interesting is how Turkish Industry will integrate back into the supply chain. Some adjustment but likely a lower cost base and perhaps an opportunity for some savings across the program even before you consider the Turkish aircraft orders coming back, they will be good for at least a 100 and maybe another 40 Bee on top of that.

What does this do to Turkish considerations of other fighters such as Eurofighters and will their LHAs finally see F-35Bs...
 
A long overdue investment needed to push the program past the TR3 quagmire.

Lockheed Martin the builder of the F-35, is to invest $350 million over five years for such capacity.

“As a team, we have to hold industry accountable, and we have to change the future for the F-35 program,” Air Force Lt. Gen. Michael Schmidt, the F-35 program executive officer, said here on Tuesday during the Air and Space Forces Association’s annual Air, Space and Cyber conference. “Part of the reason we got in the situation we got into is because we haven’t invested in our lab capacity, to making the F-35 enterprise state-of-the-art.”
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www.defensedaily.com

F-35 Program Aims to Rejuvenate Lab Capacity for Software - Defense Daily

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md.--As the F-35 program aims to deliver a "fully combat capable" fighter next year with the Technology Refresh-3 (TR-3) software
www.defensedaily.com www.defensedaily.com
 
NMaude said:
Well it looks like the US and Turkey have reached a deal to decommission its' SA-21 Growler batteries in return for getting back into the JSF programme:

Turkey Nears Deal to Decommission S-400 Air Defences and Return to F-35 Fighter Program - Reports



So it looks like Turkey maybe getting its F-35s starting next year. Before Turkey got the boot from the programme in July, 2019 how many F-35s had been built for it?
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The only outlet this story comes from is a Greek newspaper...I suspect they don't have any contacts within the Turkish Government....I'd file this in I believe it when I see it...
 
So it looks like Turkey are doing without the Typhoon order in favour of the F-35 after all timmymagic, though I am like you I won't belive it until I see the ink dry on the contract.
 
Every high level visit to USA requires a major deal for public consumption. Buy F-16s in one, do not buy F-16s in the next one.

Apart from that it is now accepted that the current program in Ankara would survive a Goverment change. With an additional type clearly in the shadows. Returning to F-35 would stop this second type. Well, America insists there is trouble brewing in the Pasific. All the resources must be harnessed. As such there is no need to burden the F-35 production with customers that will not fight there, ergo there is no need for this country to return. And l say this with Greek Coast Guard incursions in recent days in mind. Envy is not as powerful as people might think.
 
I sincerely doubt Turkey is ever returning to the fold or that the U.S. has any interest in it doing so.
 
timmymagic said:
The only outlet this story comes from is a Greek newspaper...I suspect they don't have any contacts within the Turkish Government....I'd file this in I believe it when I see it...
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The funny thing is we also first heard about the procurement of 40 new F-16s+modernization kits and the complementary missile deal from them while Turkish journalists hadn't heard anything about that. The Greeks are getting these news from their cliques within the American government, hence the accuracy.

But we rarely hear these developments from Turkish circles.

This neither means they've reached a deal, nor that they're even considering such a thing. CAATSA is more important for Turkey than the F-35s and The Turkish side seems to be in no rush to get rid of the it without a favorouble deal. Mind you, although this hasn't been the case because the US has less to lose here than Turkey; S-400 is something Turkey has procured for self-defence and the meddlesome US ideally has no say in how Turkey gets to use it.
Ozair said:
even before you consider the Turkish aircraft orders coming back, they will be good for at least a 100 and maybe another 40 Bee on top of that.

What does this do to Turkish considerations of other fighters such as Eurofighters and will their LHAs finally see F-35Bs...
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Turkish Armed Forces were planning to procure 100 As for TuAF and around 12-20 Bs for Navy's TCG Anadolu back in 2018 but that was a long time ago. TAI Kaan has materialised nicely (in line with changing requirements to compensate for F-35's deep-strike) since then, and the Navy's now officially designing a CV similar to the QE-class (they're still planning a sister ship to TCG Anadolu)

KAAN-Prueba-2-turquia-1024x571.jpeg.webp
1724591157469-png.738142
20240424_175723-jpg.726733

See below:
https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/turkeys-naval-projects-discussion.38379/post-704907

If I were to make a guess and if they were really interested in getting back into the F-35 programme; we estimate that they'd ultimately procure a single squadron's worth of As and two squadrons of Bs.

But to compensate for the loss of F-35Bs; the Navy has already chosen Anka-3 for deep-strike and Kizilelma + Naval Hürjet for Loyal Wingman and Drone Controller roles respectively. Granted, this plan cannot fully replace the loss of F-335Bs and none of these aircraft have neither been navalised nor have reached the induction into the service stage yet but this is easier to achieve than to develop the TAI Kaan within schedule (which is admittedly something they've successfully managed to do till now).

hurjet-19-mayis-samsun-2.jpeg
Hürjet
56523
Anka-3
1723552499206-png.736678

Kizilelma
 
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NMaude said:
Well it looks like the US and Turkey have reached a deal to decommission its' SA-21 Growler batteries in return for getting back into the JSF programme:

Turkey Nears Deal to Decommission S-400 Air Defences and Return to F-35 Fighter Program - Reports



So it looks like Turkey maybe getting its F-35s starting next year. Before Turkey got the boot from the programme in July, 2019 how many F-35s had been built for it?
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For days I knowingly didn't want to share this news in here but since it already got out, you can read my reasoning above.
 
okakac said:
As such there is no need to burden the F-35 production with customers that will not fight there
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But having Turkey back in the fold means more production orders hence lowering the unit cost of the F-35 AND more $$$$ for LM.

snne said:
TAI Kaan has materialised nicely (in line with changing requirements to compensate for F-35's deep-strike) since then
Click to expand...

Yes, Turkey now has the Kaan in development but it will be years before it's available, the F-35 is currently in mass-production and hence available a lot sooner.
 
NMaude said:
But having Turkey back in the fold means more production orders hence lowering the unit cost of the F-35 AND more $$$$ for LM.

Yes, Turkey now has the Kaan in development but it will be years before it's available, the F-35 is currently in mass-production and hence available a lot sooner.
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Not really that much sooner. F-35 production is pretty maxed now and that is before the US lift orders once Blk 4 is fully available. Turkey rejoining might actually allow a production uplift with new (or previous) manufactures coming online.
 
NMaude said:
Yes, Turkey now has the Kaan in development but it will be years before it's available, the F-35 is currently in mass-production and hence available a lot sooner.
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Actually, no. Those 6 already built, delivered and still TuAF-owned F-35s need to go under a deep maintenance, update and be used for extensive training again. And the production slots for the rest of the ordered planes were given to USAF so imo Turkey will have to wait at least until 2032-33 for new planes.

So TuAF might as well bite the bullet and wait for Kaan. The Navy OTOH would benefit greatly from having F-35Bs at their disposal but as I've mentioned, they are already commited to 3 different -indigenous - aircraft types as replacements (which is not ideal but fine enough):

If I were to make a guess and if they were really interested in getting back into the F-35 programme; we estimate that they'd ultimately procure a single squadron's worth of As and two squadrons of Bs.

But to compensate for the loss of F-35Bs; the Navy has already chosen Anka-3 for deep-strike and Kizilelma + Naval Hürjet for Loyal Wingman and Drone Controller roles respectively. Granted, this plan cannot fully replace the loss of F-335Bs and none of these aircraft have neither been navalised nor have reached the induction into the service stage yet but this is easier to achieve than to develop the TAI Kaan within schedule (which is admittedly something they've successfully managed to do till now).
Click to expand...

All of this meaning: Hold your horses...

resized_e9e73-94ea878dresized_97c3c0acb158dmansetc.jpg
turkish-f-35s-waiting-in-hangar-since-they-kicked-out-of-v0-1p6ml1h13z8c1.jpeg

3 instructor pilots have already been trained but obviously since it was long ago they'd have to go back to training again if Turkey ever returns to the program.

As a fun fact, the similators were already shipped to Turkey when it got kicked out.

GFQs5RRXwAAZ0IJ
 
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snne said:
The funny thing is we also first heard about the procurement of 40 new F-16s+modernization kits and the complementary missile deal from them while Turkish journalists hadn't heard anything about that. The Greeks are getting these news from their cliques within the American government, hence the accuracy.

But we rarely hear these developments from Turkish circles.

This neither means they've reached a deal, nor that they're even considering such a thing. CAATSA is more important for Turkey than the F-35s and The Turkish side seems to be in no rush to get rid of the it without a favorouble deal. Mind you, although this hasn't been the case because the US has less to lose here than Turkey; S-400 is something Turkey has procured for self-defence and the meddlesome US ideally has no say in how Turkey gets to use it.

Turkish Armed Forces were planning to procure 100 As for TuAF and around 12-20 Bs for Navy's TCG Anadolu back in 2018 but that was a long time ago. TAI Kaan has materialised nicely (in line with changing requirements to compensate for F-35's deep-strike) since then, and the Navy's now officially designing a CV similar to the QE-class (they're still planning a sister ship to TCG Anadolu)

KAAN-Prueba-2-turquia-1024x571.jpeg.webp
1724591157469-png.738142
20240424_175723-jpg.726733

See below:
https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/turkeys-naval-projects-discussion.38379/post-704907

If I were to make a guess and if they were really interested in getting back into the F-35 programme; we estimate that they'd ultimately procure a single squadron's worth of As and two squadrons of Bs.

But to compensate for the loss of F-35Bs; the Navy has already chosen Anka-3 for deep-strike and Kizilelma + Naval Hürjet for Loyal Wingman and Drone Controller roles respectively. Granted, this plan cannot fully replace the loss of F-335Bs and none of these aircraft have neither been navalised nor have reached the induction into the service stage yet but this is easier to achieve than to develop the TAI Kaan within schedule (which is admittedly something they've successfully managed to do till now).

hurjet-19-mayis-samsun-2.jpeg
Hürjet
56523
Anka-3
1723552499206-png.736678

Kizilelma
Click to expand...
I'm a lot more pessimistic on Kaan than you are, I cannot see it delivering a capability that will rival the F-35 till at least the 2040s if ever.

Hence I see the original requirement for the 100 A models seeing a revival and ideal replacements for the remaining F-4s and pre Blk 50 F-16s.
 

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