Of course, but since we are ahead, our failures are mainly in the past...Y'all do realize that the Russians, Chinese, and North Koreans have also had plenty of failures as well?
DOT&E FY2021 Annual Report
In FY21, the program completed five instrumented measurement vehicle captive-carry flight tests to demonstrate initial weapon-aircraft interface integration, as well as proper fit and mechanical function of the weapon with the B-52H aircraft. The ARRW program twice attempted to execute one of the three planned booster test flights with a simulated glider. The booster test flights are intended to demonstrate final weapon-aircraft integration with the production-representative missile, the capability to launch the weapon inside the flight envelope, and proper performance of the booster rocket. Four AUR tests will ensue upon the conclusion of booster flight testing..
The first booster test flights experienced an unexpected test event on both attempts. During the first test, the missile, by design, did not separate from the B-52 because the system determined there was a fin actuator problem. The Air Force implemented a corrective action before the second attempt. During the second attempt, the missile experienced an unexpected test event after release from the B-52 aircraft that prevented the booster motor from igniting, leading to a loss of the test asset. The Air Force is currently conducting a Failure Review Board to determine the root cause(s) of the failure and implement corrective actions to the missile system before the next booster test flight. Although the second booster test experienced an unexpected event, it did demonstrate the safe release and separation of the weapon system from the aircraft. The second booster test also validated the fin actuator corrective action.
How did the third test perform?From the DOT&E FY2021 Annual Report (Page 192)
DOT&E FY2021 Annual Report
In FY21, the program completed five instrumented measurement vehicle captive-carry flight tests to demonstrate initial weapon-aircraft interface integration, as well as proper fit and mechanical function of the weapon with the B-52H aircraft. The ARRW program twice attempted to execute one of the three planned booster test flights with a simulated glider. The booster test flights are intended to demonstrate final weapon-aircraft integration with the production-representative missile, the capability to launch the weapon inside the flight envelope, and proper performance of the booster rocket. Four AUR tests will ensue upon the conclusion of booster flight testing..
The first booster test flights experienced an unexpected test event on both attempts. During the first test, the missile, by design, did not separate from the B-52 because the system determined there was a fin actuator problem. The Air Force implemented a corrective action before the second attempt. During the second attempt, the missile experienced an unexpected test event after release from the B-52 aircraft that prevented the booster motor from igniting, leading to a loss of the test asset. The Air Force is currently conducting a Failure Review Board to determine the root cause(s) of the failure and implement corrective actions to the missile system before the next booster test flight. Although the second booster test experienced an unexpected event, it did demonstrate the safe release and separation of the weapon system from the aircraft. The second booster test also validated the fin actuator corrective action.
The report was likely written before the AF conducted its third attempt.
How did the third test perform?From the DOT&E FY2021 Annual Report (Page 192)
DOT&E FY2021 Annual Report
In FY21, the program completed five instrumented measurement vehicle captive-carry flight tests to demonstrate initial weapon-aircraft interface integration, as well as proper fit and mechanical function of the weapon with the B-52H aircraft. The ARRW program twice attempted to execute one of the three planned booster test flights with a simulated glider. The booster test flights are intended to demonstrate final weapon-aircraft integration with the production-representative missile, the capability to launch the weapon inside the flight envelope, and proper performance of the booster rocket. Four AUR tests will ensue upon the conclusion of booster flight testing..
The first booster test flights experienced an unexpected test event on both attempts. During the first test, the missile, by design, did not separate from the B-52 because the system determined there was a fin actuator problem. The Air Force implemented a corrective action before the second attempt. During the second attempt, the missile experienced an unexpected test event after release from the B-52 aircraft that prevented the booster motor from igniting, leading to a loss of the test asset. The Air Force is currently conducting a Failure Review Board to determine the root cause(s) of the failure and implement corrective actions to the missile system before the next booster test flight. Although the second booster test experienced an unexpected event, it did demonstrate the safe release and separation of the weapon system from the aircraft. The second booster test also validated the fin actuator corrective action.
The report was likely written before the AF conducted its third attempt.
This is really stupid, is Congress to actively make sure the US is to stay behind the PRC and Russia in the field of hypersonic weapons?Air Force can't buy its first hypersonic ARRW as planned, following budget cut - Breaking Defense
In the FY22 omnibus spending bill revealed by Congress today, appropriators halved funding for the Air Force's flagship hypersonic missile program.breakingdefense.com
Convincing Congress to buy an untested weapon is tough. Convincing it to buy a weapon that's flunked 3 tests in a row is quite challenging.This is really stupid, is Congress to actively make sure the US is to stay behind the PRC and Russia in the field of hypersonic weapons?Air Force can't buy its first hypersonic ARRW as planned, following budget cut - Breaking Defense
In the FY22 omnibus spending bill revealed by Congress today, appropriators halved funding for the Air Force's flagship hypersonic missile program.breakingdefense.com
Now THAT'S the way to run a test program. FFSView: https://mobile.twitter.com/TheDEWLine/status/1508502697997221907
Only one ARRW but new start “Advanced Modular Missile”
I hate being right sometimes.given that ARRW fail 3 out of 3 test and the motor didn't even get to ignite , it hard to imagine they have a lot of incentive to buy more and not cancel the whole program like they always do.
That's an excuse they've frequently used in the past. "We're going to leap-frog this and go right for the better technology- and then cancel that too when it doesn't succeed on the first flight." At this point (well, right from the start pretty much) hypersonics in the US is a complete joke. More than happy to eat my words but pretty sure I won't have to.Part of the sales pitch for ARRW was producing a servive-ready weapon fast, so DoD wouldn't have to wait for the more challenging air-breathers to come along. But if ARRW has major problems which need significant time to sort out, the desire to just just skip right to the latter weapons may be winning out.
At this point, they may as well resurrect ASALM and air launched ATACM.That's an excuse they've frequently used in the past. "We're going to leap-frog this and go right for the better technology- and then cancel that too when it doesn't succeed on the first flight." At this point (well, right from the start pretty much) hypersonics in the US is a complete joke. More than happy to eat my words but pretty sure I won't have to.Part of the sales pitch for ARRW was producing a servive-ready weapon fast, so DoD wouldn't have to wait for the more challenging air-breathers to come along. But if ARRW has major problems which need significant time to sort out, the desire to just just skip right to the latter weapons may be winning out.
At this point, they may as well resurrect ASALM and air launched ATACM.That's an excuse they've frequently used in the past. "We're going to leap-frog this and go right for the better technology- and then cancel that too when it doesn't succeed on the first flight." At this point (well, right from the start pretty much) hypersonics in the US is a complete joke. More than happy to eat my words but pretty sure I won't have to.Part of the sales pitch for ARRW was producing a servive-ready weapon fast, so DoD wouldn't have to wait for the more challenging air-breathers to come along. But if ARRW has major problems which need significant time to sort out, the desire to just just skip right to the latter weapons may be winning out.
They tried that, LRASM-B, got scared and cancelled almost before the powerpoint was done. "Too risky."At this point, they may as well resurrect ASALM and air launched ATACM.That's an excuse they've frequently used in the past. "We're going to leap-frog this and go right for the better technology- and then cancel that too when it doesn't succeed on the first flight." At this point (well, right from the start pretty much) hypersonics in the US is a complete joke. More than happy to eat my words but pretty sure I won't have to.Part of the sales pitch for ARRW was producing a servive-ready weapon fast, so DoD wouldn't have to wait for the more challenging air-breathers to come along. But if ARRW has major problems which need significant time to sort out, the desire to just just skip right to the latter weapons may be winning out.
That's an excuse they've frequently used in the past. "We're going to leap-frog this and go right for the better technology- and then cancel that too when it doesn't succeed on the first flight." At this point (well, right from the start pretty much) hypersonics in the US is a complete joke. More than happy to eat my words but pretty sure I won't have to.
There was air-launched ATACMS?At this point, they may as well resurrect ASALM and air launched ATACM.
You don’t need a couple of decades of R&D for boosters to work as desired.
Any technical reports you have a link to please?Yep, there was some proposalThere was air-launched ATACMS?At this point, they may as well resurrect ASALM and air launched ATACM.
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ARRW program already messed up, not once but 3 different time with the booster which supposed to be the simple/well known part. It doesn't give a lot of confident that their glider will work. And ARRW seem quite expensive as well, Iam skeptical that they will field it in great number. Kinzhal approach is simple, and more or less have been proved to work and likely a lot cheaperAt this point, they may as well resurrect ASALM and air launched ATACM.That's an excuse they've frequently used in the past. "We're going to leap-frog this and go right for the better technology- and then cancel that too when it doesn't succeed on the first flight." At this point (well, right from the start pretty much) hypersonics in the US is a complete joke. More than happy to eat my words but pretty sure I won't have to.
Why would you want to do that? Launching a hypersonic TBG is the survivability and speed they needed. Its a key driver for ARRW. An air launched ATACMS (Kinzhal approach) won't get them that. Time sensitive target strike capability is already being provided by the Navy prompt strike, and the Army LRHW program so why would the DOD fund an AF program if it actually waters down survivability which one would assume is a key driver for the program?
The AF has an alternate to the ARRW and that is HCSW. It completed its CDR and can move into component fabrication, testing and later production. Its CHGB, shared with the Army and Navy, has already moved into production at Dynetics Alabama. It will be a lot more expensive than ARRW and a lot larger as well. But it is available if they wish to field an alternate boost glide system. But that will be foolish since ARRW failures have nothing to do with the "hypersonic" part of the system (the glider, its accuracy, survivability or its lethality) so cancelling it would be a foolish thing to do compared to fixing what's wrong and demonstrating that it works. If ARRW is.a catastrophic and non-fixable failure, the AF would be better to accelerate its investments in HACM and field that more broadly. If they absolutely need the range, and speed of a boost glide system then the next logical thing would be to resurrect the HCSW which they have always maintained is the fall back option.
This is the T-16, based on Patriot, and was part of the Assault Breaker project back in the 70s/80s.Yep, there was some proposalThere was air-launched ATACMS?At this point, they may as well resurrect ASALM and air launched ATACM.
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ARRW program already messed up, not once but 3 different time with the booster which supposed to be the simple/well known part. It doesn't give a lot of confident that their glider will work. And ARRW seem quite expensive as well, Iam skeptical that they will field it in great number. Kinzhal approach is simple, and more or less have been proved to work and likely a lot cheaper
If the USAF wanted an ALBM it would have developed and requested industry to supply it an ALBM.
I don't doubt that TBG has many advantages that make it valuable for them to pursuit, but after various set back, it also feel like the program probably too ambitious for them to complete. There seem to be very high chance that ARRW will follow the footstep of NGM . HCSW is likely even more expensive than ARRW and since there isn't a prototype yet, it will take even longer than ARRW to develop and get into production. Air launched ballistic missile might not be as survivable as TBG, but cheaper, more simple, more likely that we can get it in short term and higher number. Ballistic hypersonic missile clearly still survivable enough that USN want to pour money in SM-6 Block IB. That seem like a cheap/quick/sure way to get hypersonic capability. If they redirect ARRW funding into HACM, I also think that will be great, but HACM being an air breather unlikely able to match the range/speed of TBG.ARRW program already messed up, not once but 3 different time with the booster which supposed to be the simple/well known part. It doesn't give a lot of confident that their glider will work. And ARRW seem quite expensive as well, Iam skeptical that they will field it in great number. Kinzhal approach is simple, and more or less have been proved to work and likely a lot cheaper
The posts makes no sense. Unless you have security clearance and know more details than us, you have no basis to state that claim. The TBG glider was chosen and pursued more than half a decade back for a reason. The trade space would have logically involved, speed, lethality and survivability. It would most definitely not have been pursued because it was the cool thing to do. Given the AF's own analysis led them to this, and then to incorporate that as the front end of its hypersonic missile, why would it now all of a sudden look to develop an AL-ATACMS? It makes zero sense. And while ARRW has had setbacks, the AF is also now committing money to complete its development and demonstrations. If they cancelled any program that had early setbacks, we would not have half the fleet or systems currently vital to our national security. Think THAAD, JASSM and what not.
If the USAF wanted an ALBM it would have developed and requested industry to supply it an ALBM. Its own analysis as far back as 2014 suggested it needed a next-gen glider, and that is what it has pursued for 8 years under the TBG (with DARPA) and ARRW programs both of which are fully funded to completion.
As I had written earlier, and as the USAF itself (along with the man leading the hypersonic portfolio) clearly stated, the backup to ARRW was always HCSW as they pumped money into the program even after they had decided to sideline it, to ensure that it completed its CDR and was ready for production in case ARRW went south. Since then the glider (CHGB) has entered production with industry. USAF pursued its most difficult of its hypersonic choices (ARRW instead of HCSW) knowing of the risk, and knowing that it had a backup that it could bring back. Fast forward to late 2023 (when ARRW is expected to complete its RDT&E phase) and the AF will have another system as an option in HACM that did not exist when it chose b/w the HCSW and ARRW around 2020. So it has choices in case it does not want to acquire the ARRW system for whatever reason (either the development program fails, it is too expensive, or it doesn't like what it has seen in terms of performance).
You don't field something just for the sake of fielding something. Kinzhal and ARRW are completely different systems, capabilities designed around totally different needs, missions and requirements. An AL-ATACMS would share little in mission overlap with ARRW and thus won't replace that mission need. Its only worth pursuing if all you want to do is check a box somewhere which is not how either the USAF nor the DOD process works in terms of the justification needed to start a program.ATACMS is dated, has obsolescence issues, and is having its production gradually replaced by PrSM. It makes zero sense to go back in time especially when the capabilities aren't even comparable.
The way I see it, the AF has three choices depending on how the next 18 or so months of flight test activity goes:
1) ARRW completes development and enters production in late FY-23 / early FY-24 and is fielded in FY-24/FY-25 timeframe
2) ARRW is not pursued post testing and AF green lights HCSW
3) ARRW is not pursued post testing, fails several upcoming tests and has its FY23 funding re-directed to HACM instead
Given where we are (and what we know from public records), all three have about an equal probability at this time. We should know more once the tests scheduled for this Spring happen.
That said, the USAF could surely make use of something like an Air launcher PrSM. But it would be the stand off counterpart to the stand in attack weapon and not an ARRW alternative. You don’t need a 10 million dollar capability if a 2 mm capability would suffice for the same role which is why ARRW is unique. That said there’s a case to have HACM fill they void which is what they seem to be doing.
Given 90% of the last fielded weapons had no name it would probably be called the "AGM-183A ARRW". Maybe some would call it "Arrow".If the USAF wanted an ALBM it would have developed and requested industry to supply it an ALBM.
Talking about ALBMs assuming the ARRW does go into production I wonder if it will be named Skybolt-II.
I don't doubt that TBG has many advantages that make it valuable for them to pursuit, but after various set back, it also feel like the program probably too ambitious for them to complete
HCSW is likely even more expensive than ARRW and since there isn't a prototype yet, it will take even longer than ARRW to develop and get into production.
Air launched ballistic missile might not be as survivable as TBG,
Which seems to be the main problem with your argument in that they are seeking "hypersonic" capability only. As if they are checking a box. ARRW has those characteristics of speed, survivability and lethality because it is intended for a mission, against targets with a broad survivability in mind. Speed isn't the only characteristic that is desired here. If they had gone to industry and requested a weapon that could top Mach 5 so that they can check off a hypersonic box, I'm sure the industry would have come back with a much cheaper, much simpler, and a lot less effective/survivable weapon. That's not what the ask was. TBG was pursued for a reason. ARRW incorporates it for a reason.That seem like a cheap/quick/sure way to get hypersonic capability.
The HCSW programme will continue development a little longer, despite being cancelled.
“We will close out [critical design review] for HCSW, so that we tie up that design in case it needs to be started in the future,” says Roper.
They will only do that if A) The ARRW shows catastrophic design flaws that cannot be rectified within the current planned funding levels and B) If they decide to pursue just one hypersonic prototyping effort. FY-23 budget request makes it clear that the Pentagon is fully committed to funding arrow through remainder of this fiscal year, and all of next fiscal year (September 2023). More than half of the procurement funding set aside to buy the first operational prototype AUR's for ARRW is now being diverted to re-do testing and other design work. So they are fully backing the development program. Whether they decide to buy it will depend on how succesfull the program is. Congress could also step in if they are highly succesfull in the coming 6-8 months and ask that money be put back into procurement for FY-23. Its too early to tell. They've really only had 1 failed test (where they lost the booster vehicle). They've had a bunch of "no tests" but that doesn't cost them another test vehicle.If they redirect ARRW funding into HACM, I also think that will be great, but HACM being an air breather unlikely able to match the range/speed of TBG.
but HACM being an air breather unlikely able to match the range/speed of TBG.
Good point however while Arrow is logical looking at its acronym it might not be chosen as to avoid confusion with the Israeli Arrow ABM.Given 90% of the last fielded weapons had no name it would probably be called the "AGM-183A ARRW". Maybe some would call it "Arrow".
It’s already called ARRW (pronounced Arrow). Why would they change the name?
It’s already called ARRW (pronounced Arrow). Why would they change the name?
They might because as I pointed out in my previous post there is already existing missile called the Arrow and they might want to avoid to prevent confusion.
He's talking about a proper name. "amraam", "jassm", "jaysow". "assram", "thaad", etc. aren't names. They're just acronyms read as words. "ARRW" is the same, it just happens to be pretty much the same as an actual word when read as a word. It's not called the "AGM-183 Arrow". For whatever reason they don't seem to bother with names anymore. "La Razm" is not a name either. (Maybe French?)It’s already called ARRW (pronounced Arrow). Why would they change the name?
They might because as I pointed out in my previous post there is already existing missile called the Arrow and they might want to avoid to prevent confusion.
ARRW is an acronym just like HCSW (pronounced hacksaw) and the system has been named that since it was first revealed. Not sure what the relation to Israeli arrow is or any reason why those naming it would care.