Strike or fleet air defense.
Though strike is a useful attribute of a carrier aircraft, if you are only going to have one combat aircraft there are other rolls it must be able to fulfill. If strike was the only requirement, the US navy would be better served by reviving the A-6 Intruder (a much better attack aircraft than the F-18 buy all accounts) and retiring all other types.
In a real war (one where you are fighting for survival, and not just beating up third world countries) cruise missiles and ICBM are much more affective strike options - aircraft may be needed though for reconnaissance if satellites and UAV communications are neutralised. RN naval air power on the other hand, will be required to defend vital sea-lanes and protect shipping (and oil rigs?) from air strikes or to act as air cover for expeditionary forces.
But pretending for a moment that strike or fleet air defense is the only issues for the RN carrier aircraft: if you can't strike, you are ineffective - if you can't defend your airspace, you're DEAD. Which is worse?
Moving along to the recent Red Flag Youtube briefing in regards to our RN carrier aircraft debate, a few factors appear to be relevant:-
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/11/10/318544/pilots-youtube-indiscretions-could-trigger-wider-air-power.html
He confirms hints that the USAF's long-range radar-guided missiles are susceptible to jamming, blunting their edge in beyond-visual-range combat.
This kind of junks the idea that the F-35 would be able to stay out of range of opponents and dog fights.
Indian air force's RSK MiG-21 Bison aircraft, modified with Israeli radar, active radar missiles and electronic jammers, are now nearly "invisible" to the F-15's and F-16's current mechanically scanned arrays.
How much better is the F-35's radar? And how much worse is the MIG's stealth that the F-35's
The Indian MiG-21 pilots can use their jammers to sneak past the USAF radar screen and engage the F-15s and F-16s in dogfights, where the outcome is far from pre-determined.
In this instance the dog fight is still very relevant and the old MIG apparently could mach the American 'teen fighters agility, aircraft the F-35 doesn't claim to better.
We just don't carry enough missiles (on the F-22). When the balloon goes up, we're going to have to go in and gun somebody. And the Raptor, thank God, it still has a gun on it.
If the F-22's stealth missile payload is pore at 6 x AMRAAM and 2 x AIM-9, the F-35's is only 2 x AMRAAM
or 4 x AIM-9
or 2 x ASRAAM. And again you're going to have to be able to dog fight.
The lecturer goes on to rubbish the Su-30 radar but (according to Flight) the Indians were only permitted, by agreement with the Russians, to only use training mode so as not to reveal the radars waveform and true potency. If the Americans had brought out F-22 perhaps the Indians would have tried it but they wouldn't risk that.
It would appear that the Typhoon will soon need an AESA radar to remain effective and moves are being made to fit one to Captor.
If so it wouldn't cost anymore in development to put it into the Rafale (except a bigger raydome?), along with a jammer similar to the Israeli one in the Indian MIGs.
This would give you a faster, more agile, bigger payloaded, just as stealthy, better radared aircraft than the F-35.
Also it would use a tried and trusted carrier capable airframe and be able to fire the Meteor, a much more advanced missile than the AMRAAM.
(If a distributed aperture vision system could be developed this would obviously benefit both the Rafale and the Typhoon.)
I'm sure you guys will all have opinions on what I've written but please consider only what would be the best all round solution for the RN, given the rolls required, the limited money available and credibility of the vendors.
Cheers, Woody