JMSDF (TRDI) Kawasaki P-X (P-1) and C-X (C-2)

is there any export potential for the P-1? or does the P-8s existence puts it to nil?
P-1 was touted to the UK, but lost to the P-8.

Hard to see who’s left in the game, P-8 seems to have picked all the low-hanging fruit. Taiwan and SK have P-3s, but would likely go for the P-8, as likely would Canada - though I could see 4 engines being attractive for them, given the size of the country and their wide maritime area.
 
Nil sadly. Just too many Japanese-specific systems aboard.
There was talk of swapping out stuff for more international kit in order to attract sales but it doesn't seem to have gotten anywhere. An export customer would end up footing the revalidation costs no doubt and that's unattractive. The P-8 seems to have the segment to itself.
 
This has been covered in Japanese sources. Basically the number of P-1s will be cut by single digits which will still leave the total built to be ~70 airframes. Also existing airframes will be upgraded, so it's not really that big of a blow. Also the cut P-1s will be replaced by UAVs likely MQ-9B the JCG is using. Chances are the contract will be given to KHI too which doesn't really affect KHI's bottom line.

Can you please post URL links to those Japanese sources?

Thanks, but I am looking for Japanese news articles that said "the number of P-1s will be cut by single digits" and "Chances are the contract will be given to KHI".

The Japanese MoD document and the Asahi's news story say nothing about that.
 
is there any export potential for the P-1? or does the P-8s existence puts it to nil?
P-1 was touted to the UK, but lost to the P-8.

Hard to see who’s left in the game, P-8 seems to have picked all the low-hanging fruit. Taiwan and SK have P-3s, but would likely go for the P-8, as likely would Canada - though I could see 4 engines being attractive for them, given the size of the country and their wide maritime area.
Not only UK but Germany as well. SK is already replacing their P-3s with P-8. Also there is no chance in hell that either SK or Japan procures one another's weapons system.

Nil sadly. Just too many Japanese-specific systems aboard.
There was talk of swapping out stuff for more international kit in order to attract sales but it doesn't seem to have gotten anywhere. An export customer would end up footing the revalidation costs no doubt and that's unattractive. The P-8 seems to have the segment to itself.
Add to that there is the problem of P-1 LCC, which has risen, is rising and will continue to rise in the near future. Recent doctrinal shift and alterations to P-1 procurement is not helping at all as well.
 
The Japanese MoD document and the Asahi's news story say nothing about that.
No, these article and document tells you everything. It is mentioned in the article that JSDF will procure 19 P-1s in the next 5 years. Now add that number to the P-1s already procured (45) and subtract that number from the planned total procurement of P-1 by JMSDF (70). It's simple arithmetics.
 
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The Japanese MoD document and the Asahi's news story say nothing about that.
No, these article and document tells you everything. It is mentioned in the article that JSDF will procure 19 P-1s in the next 5 years. Now add that number to the P-1s already procured (45) and subtract that number from the planned total procurement of P-1 by JMSDF (70). It's simple arithmetics.

Where does it say they have already bought 45?

This one ( https://www.mod.go.jp/j/publication/wp/wp2022/html/ns008000.html ) says 33.

What I am looking for is Japanese articles that specifically say the size of the cut will be less than 10 and KHI will be compensated by new UAV contracts.
 
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Where does it say they have already bought 45?

This one ( https://www.mod.go.jp/j/publication/wp/wp2022/html/ns008000.html ) says 33.
Oh I've made a small mistake there. It's 42 not 45 in total.

Talking about the white paper you've cited, go read it again and this time be careful of the details. What does it say there?

"保有数は、 2022.3.31現在の国有財産台帳数値である。"
Important to know : 総国有財産台帳数値 =/= 総調達数量

What I am looking for is Japanese articles that specifically say the size of the cut will be less than 10 and KHI will be compensated by new UAV contracts.
Also here are the MoD procurement budgets for those years which P-1 was procured. Note that for Reiwa 3 (2021) a supplementary budget was added for 3 more P-1s. Good luck and have fun with looking for an article if this doesn't satisfy you.
 

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It's 42 airframes now with a planned 19 to be produced in the 5 year build up.
View: https://twitter.com/harapeko11/status/1611632884422692865

Fl2rkOJaMAEgKt-

I got the number total wrong initially. The original plan was 70 airframes now reduced to 61.
 
Some new C-2 and P-1 developments for FY2023.

C-2
Guided missile launch system for the C-2 study
View: https://twitter.com/THABOS47747375/status/1663115755699974145

This is likely related to the MoD wanting to mount a system similar to Rapid Dragon on transport planes

I already wrote about it in the more relevant section, but a C-2 modified with GCAP equipment as a FTB will begin testing this year.


P-1
Possible AWACS version of the P-1
View: https://twitter.com/yasu_osugi/status/1661330272288395264


Capability enhancement for the P-1 radar. This is likely related to the midterm defense build up which involved slashing the total P-1 procurement, but opting to overhaul the airframes for improved performance.
View: https://twitter.com/THABOS47747375/status/1663184016525373440


 
Looking forward to the new AWACS variant of the P-1, I only wish that Japan has better luck than we did with the Nimrod AEW.

The Japanese text just refers to "thin and lightweight radar," nothing specific about AEW that I could see. Given that the P-1 already incorporates a distributed AESA radar (HPS-106) for sea surveillance, this might just be further improvement of that technology.
 
The Japanese text just refers to "thin and lightweight radar," nothing specific about AEW that I could see. Given that the P-1 already incorporates a distributed AESA radar (HPS-106) for sea surveillance, this might just be further improvement of that technology.
The key line here is
(9)動向調査の結果を踏まえ、当該器材の特性(レーダの大きさ、空力特性、消費電力、電波干渉など含む。)などに応じて、搭載方法の導出要領について企画提案できること。
It talks about how to derive a mounting method based on the radar's size and aerodynamic characteristics. Specifically noting altering the aircrafts aerodynamic characteristics. The implications point towards an external array that would alter aerodynamics of the aircraft to a significant extent and based on previous talks of a potential AEW variant makes the remarks noteworthy. Such considerations would typically not be considered if it was simply a drop in replacement for the HPS-106.
 
The Japanese text just refers to "thin and lightweight radar," nothing specific about AEW that I could see. Given that the P-1 already incorporates a distributed AESA radar (HPS-106) for sea surveillance, this might just be further improvement of that technology.
The key line here is
(9)動向調査の結果を踏まえ、当該器材の特性(レーダの大きさ、空力特性、消費電力、電波干渉など含む。)などに応じて、搭載方法の導出要領について企画提案できること。
It talks about how to derive a mounting method based on the radar's size and aerodynamic characteristics. Specifically noting altering the aircrafts aerodynamic characteristics. The implications point towards an external array that would alter aerodynamics of the aircraft to a significant extent and based on previous talks of a potential AEW variant makes the remarks noteworthy. Such considerations would typically not be considered if it was simply a drop in replacement for the HPS-106.

Ah, that makes more sense. I thought the E-2D orders would delay the need for a new indigenous AEW aircraft, but maybe that's just a gap filler due to the delayed arrival of something better.

The other possibility would be a counterpart to the Advanced Airborne Sensor on the P-8, a large radar for wide-area surface surveillance.
 
Looking forward to the new AWACS variant of the P-1, I only wish that Japan has better luck than we did with the Nimrod AEW.
They already considered a P-1 based AEW&C for the E-2C replacement and tbh I'm not sure if they'll opt for their own design this time around instead of buying E-7s. If anything the E-2C replacement was a better opportunity numberwise I feel. Of course since they were very eager to get CEC maybe there wasn't any other choice than E-2D.
 
It will be sad of Japan do not develop their own AWACS based on the P-1 and going for the E-7 instead, I would like to see another AWACS take on the E-7 and the SAAB GlobalEye
 
1685684341490.png The P-1 upgrade is getting a Canadian MAD. From what I can tell it won't replace the tail MAD boom, but act as a supplemental system.
 
This comes on top of Spain also signing an MOU on evaluating the P-1
I could definitely see Italy becoming the European hub for a Euro spec P-1. The focus on the "green" and low noise pollution aspects could make the P-1 a very likely candidate as those two aspects are the things that the P-1 overwhelmingly does better than the P-8A.

Some reading on the F-7, but it has a lot lower fuel consumption and less emissions

Here is some sound emissions data on the XP-1. At take off the XP-1 was 70.6db vs the P-3C which was 81db
Comparing that to a 737-800 with the 56-7B27
1734411198076.png
So the CFM56 is around 1.5x louder than the F7.
 
It's interesting how few P-1 weapons bay photos do exist...
 

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Italian Navy interest in P-1?
I could see this happening in exchange of Japan licensing a localised version of M-346 to replace T-4. I also think that a GCAP-optimized ETS co-development is within the realms of possibility. Anyways, if that does happen, it wouldn't be a bad choice for Italy. They could greatly expand the M-346 fleet-size, in exchange for a capable MPA.
 
I could see this happening in exchange of Japan licensing a localized version of M-346 to replace T-4. I also think that a GCAP-optimized ETS co-development is within the realms of possibility. Anyways, if that does happen, it wouldn't be a bad choice for Italy. They could greatly expand the M-346 fleet-size, in exchange for a capable MPA.
M-346 likely isn't happening. Japan and America announced intentions to jointly develop a trainer for the T-4 replacement and potentially for America's ATT program. It's unknown if it's a clean sheet design or a modification of the T-7A or other ATT candidate, but nothing about 3rd party participation has been announced.
 
M-346 likely isn't happening. Japan and America announced intentions to jointly develop a trainer for the T-4 replacement and potentially for America's ATT program. It's unknown if it's a clean sheet design or a modification of the T-7A or other ATT candidate, but nothing about 3rd party participation has been announced.
I'm aware of that, but was thinking there's a possibility since the joint US-Japanese trainer is still nothing more than a discussion at this point. We've already seen how Japan has pivoted from the US to UK for the F-X cooperation. I don't think it's impoosible that same thing would happen for the next T-X
 

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