Don't forget that Israel tends to lean more towards protecting the people, so it's entirely possible that airbases were used as missile dumps. Airbases are mostly empty fields, after all, so if it's not going to land on the hangars or ammo bunkers, let it land.
 
Seems like a lot were intercepted and a decent amount weren't. The crux of the matter will come down to whether the unintercepted missiles actually hit their target, which can only be determined by satellite images.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c5EOlX2Tg0

View: https://x.com/BilboBagginsBut/status/1841414852218175593

View: https://x.com/bpmfunk/status/1841175623240425651
 
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The ultra fast missile depicted in this vid would certainly bypass any AD, incl. the Iron Dome. Could that be the Fattah-2?

 
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Don't forget that Israel tends to lean more towards protecting the people, so it's entirely possible that airbases were used as missile dumps. Airbases are mostly empty fields, after all, so if it's not going to land on the hangars or ammo bunkers, let it land.
And both sides had it arranged before the attack; so even if some missiles "spill over", they wouldn't cause a massive damage/death toll since Iran is targeting empty fields and at most runways (as they cowardly always do against anyone besides non-state actors.)
 
And both sides had it arranged before the attack; so even if some missiles "spill over", they wouldn't cause a massive damage/death toll since Iran is targeting empty fields and at most runways (as they cowardly always do against anyone besides non-state actors.)

Looks like they put at least one within 1.5 km of Mossad HQ. I'm not sure their missiles are precise enough to believe that was a deliberate miss.

 
@yahya : stop flooding and claiming, please. You seems to have some agenda.
Basic facts:
1-Iran claims 90% of their missiles hit
2-Israel won't communicate about what got through.

Bottom line: we don't know. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel#Strikes
Okay, as I look at the video footage, I see approach speeds that are too low for incoming missiles that have not been intercepted and some even flaring and shedding parts, somewhat like seeing the STS Challenger break up imagery. I would think missiles getting thru would not typically be seen - the motors would have long burned out and the rest is coasting to the target. Am I missing something?

Enjoy the Day! Mark
 
The ultra fast missile depicted in this vid would certainly bypass any AD, incl. the Iron Dome. Could that be the Fattah-2?

No, the trajectory seems all wrong altogether. They are following a ballistic arc but the profile seems to match shorter range MLRS fire rather than the high altitude descent of an MRBM or the high altitude manoeuvring on a HGV-type.

@yahya : stop flooding and claiming, please. You seems to have some agenda.
Basic facts:
1-Iran claims 90% of their missiles hit
2-Israel won't communicate about what got through.

Bottom line: we don't know. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel#Strikes
The White House has already issued a statement.
Post #83

Either the missiles lack any accuracy or they were sufficiently degraded via partial strikes or satellite jamming to miss their intended targets.

Okay, as I look at the video footage, I see approach speeds that are too low for incoming missiles that have not been intercepted and some even flaring and shedding parts, somewhat like seeing the STS Challenger break up imagery. I would think missiles getting thru would not typically be seen - the motors would have long burned out and the rest is coasting to the target. Am I missing something?

Enjoy the Day! Mark
Yeah, this. I'm not really sure RVs still emit a visible yellow glow just before hitting the ground, maybe I'm wrong. Glowing yellow at that late stage seems to imply it's been hit. Trying to find footage of a successful test strike with similar to verify. Just found one, no glowing yellow.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxNPE7IqsQ4

It could depend on speed though, just looked at some Peacekeeper tests and they are still glowing yellow before impact, although that could be an affect designed for the test, or it could be down to travelling at twice the speed.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eh96NdcgE2Y
 
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@yahya : stop flooding and claiming, please. You seems to have some agenda.
Basic facts:
1-Iran claims 90% of their missiles hit
2-Israel won't communicate about what got through.
Well, when sattelite photos became available, there probably would be some hard data about impacts at least around air bases.
 
Geolocation shows the results of Iran’s missile strike against Israel, with targets including a school, a mall and a road near the Mossaad HQ, the sea and both Nevatim and Tel Nof Air Base hit by missiles too. Also geolocated, the launch site of missiles from Iran.

1 missile seems to have hit something of note at Tel Nof due to secondary.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPl-6xPey6o

This poor Palestinian man looked both ways but it wasn't enough. He is the sole casualty.
View: https://twitter.com/x/status/1841245077835854120
 
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TUESDAY'S ATTACK
* Fabian Hinz, a Berlin-based expert on Iran’s missile arsenal with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said that based on the locations of videos of launches posted on social media and the ranges to Israel, he assessed that Iran fired a combination of solid- and liquid-fueled missiles.
The former category of missile, which is more advanced, is fired from angled mobile launchers and the latter from vertical launchers, he said.
He said three solid-propellent missiles fired on Tuesday could be the 'Haj Qasem', 'Kheibar Shekan' and 'Fattah 1'. Liquid propellant missiles reported as being launched from Isfahan might potentially be the 'Emad', 'Badr' and 'Khorramshahr', he said.
Source:

Could the above mentioned angled launchers affect the more flat trajectory of the missiles' flight seen on the vids from yesterday's attacks?
 
Could the above mentioned angled launchers affect the more flat trajectory of the missiles' flight seen on the vids from yesterday's attacks?
In a word 'no'. The missile will put itself on the correct ballistic course for the target area post launch anyway. Launch angle has nothing to do with flight trajectory.
 
It could depend on speed though, just looked at some Peacekeeper tests and they are still glowing yellow before impact, although that could be an affect designed for the test, or it could be down to travelling at twice the speed.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eh96NdcgE2Y
Turns out this might be part of the penaid system.
Post #12
 
In a word 'no'. The missile will put itself on the correct ballistic course for the target area post launch anyway. Launch angle has nothing to do with flight trajectory.
I see. Could you please also explain another matter? Yesterday's attack took place with various Iranian missile systems. Some were solid fuel, some were liquid fuel. If I understood correctly, such MRBMs have a booster that is rejected during the descend (terminal) flight, and only the warhead flies toward the target to make it more difficult to intercept by the AD/MD. Right? If yes, why there was yellowish fire still visible till the last moment before impact? What caused that fire?
 
I see. Could you please also explain another matte? Yesterday's attack took place with various Iranian missile systems. Some were solid fuel, some were liquid fuel. If I understood correctly, such MRBMs have a booster that is rejected during the descend (terminal) flight, and only the warhead flies toward the target to make it more difficult to intercept by the AD/MD. Right? If yes, why there was yellowish fire still visible till the last moment before impact? What caused that fire?
May have answered that in the post immediately prior to yours. It could be part of a penaid system (to optically mask the warhead) that I wasn't aware of. This is why the Pershing RV doesn't glow (because manoeuvring is its penaid) while the Peacekeeper RVs do.
 
Thank you. That would speak for the sophistication of Iranian missiles and their ability to penetrate more serious AD/MD than the Iron Dome. But what exactly these penetration aids could have been? Propelled decoys glowing extra in IR cams?
 
Yeah, this. I'm not really sure RVs still emit a visible yellow glow just before hitting the ground, maybe I'm wrong. Glowing yellow at that late stage seems to imply it's been hit. Trying to find footage of a successful test strike with similar to verify. Just found one, no glowing yellow.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxNPE7IqsQ4

It could depend on speed though, just looked at some Peacekeeper tests and they are still glowing yellow before impact, although that could be an affect designed for the test, or it could be down to travelling at twice the speed.
It could just be that the missile was fired on a lofted trajector and had a higher apogee than nominal, leading to higher reentry velocity and a subsequent glow. You could see the same glow on the North Korean BMs that shares lineage with Iranian ones.

Thank you. That would speak for the sophistication of Iranian missiles and their ability to penetrate more serious AD/MD than the Iron Dome. But what exactly these penetration aids could have been? Propelled decoys glowing extra in IR cams?
There is no need for any sophisticated penaid, since like I've said before, Iron Dome is not meant for BMD. It's a C-RAM system.

Even if you fire a missile from the border of Iran with Iraq, you at least need SRBM. Iron Dome was never meant to even defend proper ballistic missile. It can't even defend against TBMs, hence why other countries facing more serious threats are developing something more capable. You need nothing more than a plain Scud if all that is protecting your target is Iron Dome.
 
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Offtop: can we please stop bullying iron dome?

It is a 3m long, 90kg interceptor with rather heavy front-end(seeker, datalink, battery, warhead) and small, long-burning motor - about as fast on average as some faster-flying ATGMs.

Post-apoc tech MLRS intercepts made it it's peerless reputation, but mildly speaking, today's threats are beyond capabilities of this particular missile. It will just create disappointment where it shouldn't be.
 
I don't know why people can't understand something this simple. Iron Dome is meant for counter-insurgency operations. It's purpose is to shoot down Qassam Rockets from Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon.

If Iran sends drones, Iron Dome could shoot it down. If they shoot Ballistic missiles, it can't.

Iran sent drones and cruise missiles alongside ballistic missiles during their attack on April (Operation True Promise).

On this week's attack (Operation True Promise 2) all known attacks were carried out some sort of ballistic weapons, some of which claimed by Iran as hypersonic. None of these are what Iron Dome is meant to shoot down.

There's a reason there's Arrow and David's Sling system.
 
Offtop: can we please stop bullying iron dome?

It is a 3m long, 90kg interceptor with rather heavy front-end(seeker, datalink, battery, warhead) and small, long-burning motor - about as fast on average as some faster-flying ATGMs.

Post-apoc tech MLRS intercepts made it it's peerless reputation, but mildly speaking, today's threats are beyond capabilities of this particular missile. It will just create disappointment where it shouldn't be.
Exactly, thay's what I've been saying on the previous page as well as on the post just above yours.

There's this one person who doen't understand the difference between a C-RAM system and BMD system. It's like asking why NBS MANTIS or Centurion couldn't shoot down ballistic missile. Cause they were never meant to, duh.
 
Offtop: can we please stop bullying iron dome?

It is a 3m long, 90kg interceptor with rather heavy front-end(seeker, datalink, battery, warhead) and small, long-burning motor - about as fast on average as some faster-flying ATGMs.

Post-apoc tech MLRS intercepts made it it's peerless reputation, but mildly speaking, today's threats are beyond capabilities of this particular missile. It will just create disappointment where it shouldn't be.
I think it should just be classified as long-range C-RAM, and not BMD. This would help to avoid confusion.
 
I think it should just be classified as long-range C-RAM, and not BMD. This would help to avoid confusion.
Obviously there's the problem regarding rockets, especially since red-for has been fielding various large-diameter MRLs since BM-30. Most of these newer large-diameter MRLs in use within Russia, China, NK and Iran are guided and probably outside the Iron Dome's intercept capability. I think 300mm is a good ballpark to distinguish traditional C-RAM targets and those rockets that requires capabilities closer to BMD.
 
There have been a few voices downplaying the dangers of quasiballistic and cruise hypersonic fires. I think we will see increased spending and research hatch from this event. This was as much or more a propaganda attack as an actual attack. Especially with the specter of nuclear payloads.

Has anyone been able to find any satellite imagery showing the aftermath? I have heard rumors that Israel is trying to block some of the imagery but I cannot confirm this.
 
Offtop: can we please stop bullying iron dome?

It is a 3m long, 90kg interceptor with rather heavy front-end(seeker, datalink, battery, warhead) and small, long-burning motor - about as fast on average as some faster-flying ATGMs.

Post-apoc tech MLRS intercepts made it it's peerless reputation, but mildly speaking, today's threats are beyond capabilities of this particular missile. It will just create disappointment where it shouldn't be.
What are you talking about? The Iron Dome isn't designed to intercept M/IRBMs.
 
It could just be that the missile was fired on a lofted trajector and had a higher apogee than nominal, leading to higher reentry velocity and a subsequent glow. You could see the same glow on the North Korean BMs that shares lineage with Iranian ones.
Then why are they coming in so horizontal?
 
I'm suggesting a possibikity at this point. Quite a few of those missiles were known to have MaRV, so maybe a terminal maneuver that made it more horizontal?
Seemed to be broadly ballistic though, and MARVs tend to do the opposite of that - pitch up and come down vertical - to maintain velocity better.
 
More woe:
Looks like this ended up like the iron fist issue, not quite what the army wanted but it actually exists and has been used in combat. Only this time the army didn't buckle and gust buy it this time. Leading to them still not haveing anything.
 
Looks like this ended up like the iron fist issue, not quite what the army wanted but it actually exists and has been used in combat. Only this time the army didn't buckle and gust buy it this time. Leading to them still not haveing anything.
You need to read the rest of the first page of the thread, USAr backed out of Iron Dome because Israel wouldn't give them the access into the Iron Dome battle management system they needed to integrate it with IBCS. Fielding it without IBCS integration would be worse than useless - the left hand and right hand of Army missile defence wouldn't know what the other hand was shooting at.

And they didn't end up with nothing, they recompeted and went with Enduring Shield from Leidos/Dynetics, which is nearly a year into deliveries.
 
@Cjc If you want to say something come out and comment on it instead of spamming other's notification with some reaction. No one is interested in how you feel if you're not adding anything to the discussion. Bad attitude isn't excused just because you don't know enough.
 
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What are you talking about? The Iron Dome isn't designed to intercept M/IRBMs.
That's exactly what he's suggesting. To stop making fun of Iron Dome for things that it can't do because it's not meant to do.
 
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What we are probably seeing in video are last-ditch attempts against leakers.
Do we have reliable information on whether the last-ditch intercepts at very low altitude used tamir/Iron Dome interceptors (presumably making last-ditch/marginal/trash-fire engagements) or stunner/David's Sling interceptors?

It should be obvious that Iron Dome is optimized for very short range rocket artillery and mortar fire, and that Arrow and in particular David's Sling would have been doing the heavy lifting. But I just want to know what the Israeli tactics and doctrine are - do they hold fire, given that Tamir is of marginal benefit, or do they pop off some Tamir-trash fire and hope for the best given that the cost of a Tamir is so low and the cost is so marginal? Iron Dome should be linked in with the overall BMD system for aerospace defense, so they should be able to get good pre-warning and cueing to make the best shots possible if that was what their commanders decided.
 
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You need to read the rest of the first page of the thread, USAr backed out of Iron Dome because Israel wouldn't give them the access into the Iron Dome battle management system they needed to integrate it with IBCS. Fielding it without IBCS integration would be worse than useless - the left hand and right hand of Army missile defence wouldn't know what the other hand was shooting at.

And they didn't end up with nothing, they recompeted and went with Enduring Shield from Leidos/Dynetics, which is nearly a year into deliveries.
IBCS has been going on for two decades now and is an entirely Patriot centric system, which makes it of absolutely no use to the Israelis. Iron Dome is outstandingly effective, and moreover cost effective, as a stand alone system. Now obviously the Army chose Leidos and AIM-9Xs that cost 20 times as much as Tamir interceptors. And as of July, the Army won’t accept any existing missile as the interceptor for increment 2, so it’s back the drawing board. When we could have a mature, cheap and fully built out capability.

IBCS integration was never a real issue. It was always a case of NIH (Not Invented Here).
 
IBCS has been going on for two decades now and is an entirely Patriot centric system, which makes it of absolutely no use to the Israelis. Iron Dome is outstandingly effective, and moreover cost effective, as a stand alone system. Now obviously the Army chose Leidos and AIM-9Xs that cost 20 times as much as Tamir interceptors. And as of July, the Army won’t accept any existing missile as the interceptor for increment 2, so it’s back the drawing board. When we could have a mature, cheap and fully built out capability.

IBCS integration was never a real issue. It was always a case of NIH (Not Invented Here).
NIH is usually an issue with any US procurement, but in this case I'd say IBCS integration is actually a valid reason for binning Iron Dome.
 

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