The Air Defense and Command Frigates (LCFs) are equipped with Thales' new SMART-L MM/N radar, which can detect ballistic missiles in space. What is missing is a weapon to tackle these missiles. For years, people hoped behind the scenes and later worked towards the arrival of the Standard Missile 3, a missile that can destroy ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere. However, defense against ballistic missiles is undergoing significant change within the Navy and the Standard Missile 3 no longer fits in there.
The navy can now detect ballistic missiles at great distances with its frigates and pass on the information to NATO partners. That capacity is operational and will be maintained, but a change of course has been initiated towards a different form of defense. And that happened a while ago. The new ideas were even applied during the Formidable Shield 2023 exercise last May. It's no secret either. Commander of Zr.Ms. Tromp captain-lieutenant at sea Yvonne van Beusekom described this shift in focus, for example, in last year's Marine magazine 5. Yet this change is taking place completely out of sight of the general public. It wasn't long ago that the SM-3 was mentioned as a dream weapon for the Navy. This missile was also seen for some time by Belgium as an option for the new frigates. “The ambition for SM-3 has really been set at a low level,” explains Rogier Noorland of Thales. "SM-3 is for outside the atmosphere. We're going back inside the atmosphere now." Noorland is one of Thales' experts who has been working on the subject of air and missile defense for years. It is not only Noorland that is active in this field at Thales in Hengelo. The company has focused on defense against ballistic missiles since the 1990s, when it was still known as Holland Signal. This could also be read in the interview with Gerrit Dedden . Nowadays Thales, together with TNO and Defense, is working on this subject because of the SMART-L MM/N, but also in preparation for the replacement of the LCFs; the Future Air Defender (FuAD) yet to be developed and built. An early impression of the Air Defense and Command Frigate
Back to the plans from the 1990s
BMD (Ballistic Missile Defense) as we knew it in the public domain until now, revolved around defending Europe, among other things, against ballistic missiles. Simply put, numerous sensors on land, in space and at sea work together to detect a possible attack in time. As soon as an attack is detected, various units at sea and on land can defend Europe with their missiles.
Crucial here is that the enemy missiles follow a ballistic trajectory; which, like a football shot high through the air, follows a predictable route towards the goal. In the case of ballistic missiles, they fly in a large arc, partly through space, towards the target.
A Dutch naval ship in the Mediterranean Sea can detect such a missile with radar and pass on information via NATO base Ramstein to, for example, an American naval ship or Aegis Ashore missile installation hundreds or thousands of kilometers away. From there, the oncoming rocket is intercepted outside the atmosphere with an SM-3.
This is how it has been practiced for years.
But instead of defending Europe or the Netherlands, for example, the focus shifts more to defending the fleet alone. From BMD to Theater Ballistic Missile Defense (TBMD). New? No, that was the plan back in 1994. In the discussions surrounding the future LCFs, local defense against ballistic missiles was on the agenda, with the Standard Missile-2 Block IV as the most important weapon. However, that missile was canceled by the Americans and attention slowly shifted to SM-3 and the defense of a large area against ballistic missiles.
The attack becomes more complex
When faced with a threat from a regular ballistic missile, you can "plan in advance where to position your ship to see it clearly and take it out," says Noorland.
“What we've seen in recent years is that ballistic missiles can maneuver,” Noorland continues. These course changes of the rocket mainly occur when the rocket returns to the atmosphere.
"A small maneuver can mean that something that you would expect to end up in Luxembourg ends up in Paris. Conversely, you calculate that a rocket ends up in the south of France and then, after a short adjustment, ends up in Luxembourg. TNO calculated this on the basis from an analysis by Ralph Savelsberg of the Dutch Defense Academy." Savelsberg used a North Korean glider for his analysis.
In addition, there are fast weapons, such as hypersonic gliders and hypersonic missiles that do not enter space or only briefly enter space several times. These do not follow a ballistic trajectory and are much more difficult to intercept because the direction from which they come is unpredictable and they fly too low for SM-3.
Images of a series of weapons from different countries appear on a large screen in the Thales presentation room. The Russian Kinzhal and the Chinese DF-17 are on display, among others.
“The Kinzhal,” says Noorland: “That weapon flies faster than Mach 5 and that is why it is often classified as hypersonic weapons, but it is actually a maneuvering ballistic missile that can be mounted under a MiG. So it falls into a separate category. "
"Because that weapon can be hung under an aircraft, we are dealing with a 360-degree threat."
"The Kinzhal can go outside the atmosphere just like an Iskander, but it can also be shot depressed. That limits the range, but it remains a lot lower, within the atmosphere, and remains out of reach of the SM-3. By By staying low, it is also more difficult to detect. Although 100 kilometers is still quite high."
“The DF-17 is actually a glider and goes faster than Mach 5,” Noorland continues. "This can also be used against naval ships. Gliders can land more precisely where they need to disable something. They are also really made to make interception a lot more difficult, because they glide into the atmosphere."
"Then we have the hypersonic cruise missiles. They also go faster than Mach 5. The annoying thing is that those weapons remain even lower, are continuously propelled and can maneuver a lot."
Speed is a problem for defense, yet Noorland nuances the threat posed by hypersonic weapons: "All things that arrive at super speed are slowed down as they fly lower and come towards the ship. Due to the resistance in the atmosphere, they therefore go from the hypersonic domain."
The defense must come along
Although traditional ballistic missiles, which require the more expensive SM-3, will not simply disappear, Defense has chosen to focus on the threat within the atmosphere.
But with the SM-3 you can defend a gigantic area because this weapon disables missiles in space. Other weapons, such as SM-6 and Patriot, that operate in the atmosphere have a much shorter range.
"If you want to protect all of Europe against those threats with SM-6 and Patriot, you need an unrealistic number of weapon systems and radars," says Noorland.
That will therefore no longer be the task of the LCFs. “We are now looking at defending a task group [group of ships],” says Noorland. "That's a little easier, because then you see the threat coming your way. You still need capable interceptors."
Thales' SMART-L MM/N radar, which can detect targets 2,000 km away in space, also comes in handy, according to Noorland: "You need a long range to be able to respond in time to missiles at high speeds. although the targets fly lower. This requires links with other sensors at sea, land, in the air and in space."
New sensors?
That radar is still very popular internationally, says Noorland. "The American SPY-6 also works in that area, but it has a completely different price tag. I see that the SMART-L MM/N is still ahead of other systems. The Americans also keep saying that we are ahead in Europe Because this radar can detect ballistic targets at great distances and provide air defense. That multi-mission aspect was also decisive in the sale to Sweden."
Although sales of this new radar are now starting, Thales is looking further. The new concept also means new requirements. "Before you actually have a robust capacity to do everything from detection to elimination for the entire spectrum of threats, there are quite a few steps that need to be taken. There is now a very good capacity, but it still needs to be further developed. "
"We are looking at what we can do with the systems we currently have and whether we can develop them further. Also with a view to the Future Air Defender."
"More specifically, with SMART-L and APAR we look at whether we can make improvements in tracking or signal processing based on the threat characteristics we now see."
"When it comes to the FuAD, we look at what kind of sensor suite can be included. How big should that thing be? Which frequency bands do you need? How many systems? This is all currently in studies. We are doing this together with Defense and TNO."
It does not mean that a further development of the SMART-L, an L-band radar, will automatically come to the FuAD. "Not by definition. It is a logical thought. It would of course not be crazy to have 'long arm surveillance' if you stick to mission types such as defense against ballistic and hypersonic missiles. But that is being studied carefully. Maybe "It will all be smaller or more spread across the ship. People are also looking in that direction. But what the end result will be depends on several factors. The radars must of course fit within the ship design for reasons such as stability and the budget."
Elements of the ASWF can be taken to the FuAD, if Thales has its way. The AWWS, Above Water Warfare System , consists of more than just sensors. Consider the advanced fire control software. “From our perspective, further development of AWWS will certainly play a major role for the Future Air Defender.”
New rockets?
The new concept (which the LCFs will also have to deal with) is not just about the sensors.
Now that the SM-3 is out of the picture, that doesn't mean the frigates won't get another missile. However, there are few flavors. Noorland: "On the American side there is the SM-6 that can do something against anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles. That will be a very limited capacity, especially against hypersonic missiles. But this system is also being further developed."
"The Aster 30NT, a new rocket, will have a capability in that area. And that's basically it." It remains to be seen whether an Aster missile from MBDA will soon be placed on a Dutch frigate. Noorland is reserved in his answer. “Technically it is possible,” he says. "If the governments really want it, it can be done."
The new SM-2 Block IIIC, which the Navy mentioned more than four years ago as a possible successor to the current SM-2 Block IIIA, also does not offer any additional variation in the range. According to the US Navy, this weapon is an air defense missile and is not associated with ballistic missile defense.
These options do not stop there. For example, the European study called
Hypersonic Defense Interceptor Study (HYDIS) is currently underway, led by MBDA, in which Fokker, TNO and Thales are also involved. This study should lead to new missiles that can respond to hypersonic targets. That is for the long term.
Connecting factor: PLDEF
Missiles that come from different directions at enormous speeds. That requires more than just the right sensors and missiles. An important solution is PLDEF (Plot Level Data Exchange and Fusion).
The idea of PLDEF is that raw information from radars is shared and merged before a track is created. Normally, a radar detects a contact and creates a track based on that information, which then appears on a screen. That track can be shared with other ships for decades, thanks to Link 11 and Link 16, for example. But what is the quality of that track? And if three radars detect an air target but do not recognize it as a contact, no one will see a track on their screen.
In Formidable Shield 2021, the Navy tested PLDEF with a French frigate and in Formidable Shield 2023, PLDEF was launched again. "Not with the French," says Noorland, "but together with the Dutch air force. We exchanged data between a system in Wier and a Dutch ship." This did not happen via a Link connection and it will probably not happen via a Link connection in the future, because this is not possible via such a connection. A separate, faster connection will be designed for which protocols are now being developed in Europe.
Noorland points to a video on the screen: "This is an example of the defense against the supersonic sea skimmer during Formidable Shield 2023. PLDEF will help enormously with this, because such a thing comes in hard and very low. Flies just below the Mach 3 at about 50 feet [over 15 meters]. The radar therefore picks it up very late and when you pick it up you first have to have a stable track, make identification, plan weapon deployment, launch a rocket and then it has to fly to the target. All the while, that rocket is coming in at Mach 3. That's really
scary fast."
“But,” Noorland continues, “if you have a ship that is only slightly advanced, or an aircraft, and it tracks the target earlier with its radar and shares that raw data, you can save time. Where we are going What you want is that you can launch a rocket while the incoming target is still flying over the horizon from your perspective."
"The whole idea is that radars look at the target from multiple angles. This means that you all have a much better representation of that one contact. You can determine the position of your track much more accurately, with better accuracy and continuity. That better quality will help to disable the weapon."
"Then," says Noorland, looking back on all the new developments, "we see the really big step in the FuAD, in which all those capabilities must find a place in their new form.
One of the important milestones coming up is Formidable Shield 2025. "That will probably be in combination with At Sea Demonstration," says Noorland. “We are adding a number of new capabilities to the SMART-L MM/N. These will be tested in 2025.”
The adjustments to the radar are software adjustments. “The great thing is that so much of the intelligence in those systems is on the software side.
Designed for change ,” says Noorland.
And those updates are necessary. Developments in the field of IAMD are going fast, as we also see in the Red Sea. So once again: to be continued.
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