Current Nuclear Weapons Development

TMA1 said:
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Site is blocked here for lying about literally everything. Where are you accessing it from?
TMA1 said:
This stuff is frequently said. The Wolfowitz doctrine tier nonsense of these neocons and neolibs in power. And yes many politicians here in America and over in europe have said multiple times they are aiming to pressure Russia into regime change.
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Democracy is what they advocate rather than one guy deciding everything from who can stand, to the vote count and who is guilty of fraud etc. when actually everyone is guilty of it including him.
TMA1 said:
Russia was leasing the territory in Crimea to keep control of the former Soviet naval bases. After maidan whether you believe it or not Russia felt compelled to take it by force. I see Russia doing exactly what we would do. They want to keep their black sea naval presence. Our leaders want the black sea to become a nato lake.
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They still have a Black Sea presence with Novorossisyk.
TMA1 said:
And btw Forest Green I mean no offense even if it gets tense. I disagree with you, but I understand especially those living or lived near Russia that have bad history with Russian/soviet government. Also though i might sound it i am aware of Putins corrupt government. I just do not at all see this as black and white good/bad guy stuff. I think we are being manipulative and belligerent.
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I see it as about economic sphere. Russia is losing it's economic sphere, this is a natural development due to its own economic under-performance. As an example, Poland had a lower GDP/capita than Russia in the 1990s, now it is higher. Ukraine is next to Poland, Ukraine sees that, so Ukraine wants to the join EU, Russia doesn't want to 'lose' them, Putin invades. The other stuff is just window dressing.
TMA1 said:
PS: I could no longer find the western news articles of Kaja saying what she said. I know they were there, but they seem to have disappeared from google news section.... I had to use an RT source. Interesting.

Edit: added thought.
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RT probably made all the sources. Russia's regime put itself under pressure by starting this war and fooling themselves into believing that the annexation of an entire country in Europe would be ignored, and that's actually a direct result of the NATO NOT putting the regime under enough pressure for S. Ossetia and Crimea.
 
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I have never been rude or disrespectful, zen. I also was not the personAto stray into the overtly political. Also I think some people here are unaware of how political their own posts can get and how not everyone agrees with them. Even in posts that do not have to be politically on the nose they are often charged with pretty extreme bias. Am I alone here??? And as far as the RT post I could not find previous european articles discussing what that Estonian Kallas woman said about why it would be a good thing to make Russia smaller. This is not new. We have respected think tank white papers discussing aggressive postures with desire of shrinking Russia, balkanizing it, removing it's influence, and ultimately changing it's government. We have multiple politicians and professional bureaucrats discussing it.

Also Nmaude I have not lied, or intented to deceive. Why would you accuse me of this? I disagree with you guys, and I think my POV is legit. And I do know there are others who feel somewhat similar.

Edit:added thought
 
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Do you think Russia and China make zero attempts to destabilise Western countries, interfere in elections, after elections etc.? They just accuse the West of doing what they're doing whilst they do it.
 
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Indeed they do. I'll stop derailing the thread. I just wish to see topics like this through more than just establishment geopolitical lenses.
 
thehill-com.cdn.ampproject.org

We can’t afford to cut America’s nuclear modernization program

Some members of Congress are suggesting that the U.S. reduce tour nuclear modernization program. It would be a big mistake.
thehill-com.cdn.ampproject.org thehill-com.cdn.ampproject.org
“Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), meanwhile, wrote a piece advocating that the U.S. “reduce the total number of land-based ICBMs” (intercontinental ballistic missiles) as a means to save money.”

“…….Put another way, our nuclear deterrent is less than 0.5 percent of the total federal budget……”
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Ya cutting about 1/5th of the half penny a year we spend on nukes will certainly save the day.
 
NMaude said:
Personally I think that Putin is bluffing and I wonder just what the true condition of Russia tactical nukes are, how many of them actually are operational?
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Nuclear release doctrine is probably fluid. Everyone talks about doctrine but really it probably depends more on the psychology of the leadership and perhaps the command chain. I think we should avoid politicizing the thread, especially since it would have to be rooted in pure speculation.
 
Josh_TN said:
Everyone talks about doctrine but really it probably depends more on the psychology of the leadership and perhaps the command chain.
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From I under the command chain for the use of tactical nuclear-weapons by Russia is not simple or easy, the Russian President (Putin) has to issue the order to the Russian military high-command (Or whatever the Russian joint-chiefs are called, Which then has to prove it) and that approval has to be sent down the appropriate chain of command to the storage bunker where the special-store is held. The officer in charge has the device checked before being loaded onto a bomber (If it's a freecall bomb) or mated to a missile before being checked out. Once that has been done then the officer in charge sends confirmation request back up the chain of command to the high-command, only wants an confirmation has been sent down the chain and received can the weapon be released for combat use.
 
NMaude, have you ever heard of such a phenomenon as "combat duty"? Nuclear weapons are ready for use within a few minutes or seconds...
 
I suspect a proportion of strategic weapons are ready at all times. The tactical weapons probably need a little more prep time.
 
Josh_TN said:
I suspect a proportion of strategic weapons are ready at all times.
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That is logical and I've no doubt the command chain for using strategic nuclear weapons for obvious reasons is streamlined.

Josh_TN said:
The tactical weapons probably need a little more prep time.
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Definitely also from what I understand the majority of Russia's nuclear are strategic warheads not tactical.
 
paralay said:
NMaude, have you ever heard of such a phenomenon as "combat duty"? Nuclear weapons are ready for use within a few minutes or seconds...
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For strategics, I'd believe it. (Land based missiles within minutes, bombers may take longer to make ready, and submarines need to get to a firing position)

For tactical weapons, though, you need to be willing to either use them at the start of the conflict or delegate release authority down a long way to get the approval cycle short enough to be useful.

"I have an opposing division forming up, I want to nuke them" needs an answer a lot faster than the usual estimated time to send something up the chain of several hours and possibly taking that same amount of time to come back down. In 6 hours, that division is going to be driving over the opposing general's command post and using the nuke is no longer a good option. You need to get that attack off in minutes, which basically means the General in charge of that sector of the front or maybe the General in charge of the entire operation needs to hold release authority, not the politicians. Not unless your President and SecDef are spending all their time with each other, waiting for the alert that a target needs them to release a nuke.
 
www.spacewar.com

China's nuclear stockpile is growing faster than any other nation

Washington DC (UPI) Jun 17, 2024 - China's nuclear arsenal increased by nearly 100 warheads over the last year, according to a new report published Monday that warned it expects Beijing's stockpile to keep growing at a faster rate than any other nation.
www.spacewar.com
 
bobbymike said:
As we mightily struggle with our “30 new pits a year plan”
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This is allegedly the breakdown. I struggle to believe it's only 500. DF-31s only listed with a single warhead, MIRV'd DF-5s carrying less than half load.

thebulletin.org

Chinese nuclear weapons, 2024

China is one of the fastest-growing nuclear arsenals among the nine nuclear-armed states. We estimate that China now possesses roughly 500 nuclear warheads, with more in production.
thebulletin.org thebulletin.org
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Russian - increased in Avangard and Yars numbers. Complete with maths error - 1,244+992+585 = 2,822 not 1,822.
thebulletin.org

Russian nuclear weapons, 2024

Russia is modernizing all its Soviet-era nuclear-capable systems. We estimate that Russia now possesses about 4,380 nuclear warheads.
thebulletin.org thebulletin.org
1718648789468.png
 
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My guess they are widely off on the money China spends. I mean how would you even begin to make that estimate when the entire program is almost completely opaque to us.
 
Some commentators here have mentioned a plan to use tactical nuclear weapons to compensate for conventional inferiority. Of course China would try to match the US type-for-type with nuclear weapons.

Worse, given their economic and industrial superiority, there's no reason for China to not go for absolute superiority.
 
DrRansom said:
Worse, given their economic and industrial superiority, there's no reason for China to not go for absolute superiority.
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A bit off-topic but China's economy is not in a good shape due to a number of intractable issues including terminal demographic decline. However the Chinese nuclear-weapons programme as someone else pointed out upthread is opaque.
 
NMaude said:
A bit off-topic but China's economy is not in a good shape due to a number of intractable issues including terminal demographic decline. However the Chinese nuclear-weapons programme as someone else pointed out upthread is opaque.
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It does seem that a combination of near, medium, and long term issues will force China to accept rough economic parity with the US indefinitely. However the PRC does have superior manufacturing capacity in a number of industries, and that likely includes solid rocket motors and warhead production. That said, the US likely can likely maintain a lead in the medium term by simply refurbishing and deploying stored warheads to existing delivery systems as discussed previously in the thread.
 
Josh_TN said:
It does seem that a combination of near, medium, and long term issues will force China to accept rough economic parity with the US indefinitely.
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It won't last indefinitely and it's very likely the PRC is going to start to fall apart at the end of this decade.

Josh_TN said:
However the PRC does have superior manufacturing capacity in a number of industries, and that likely includes solid rocket motors and warhead production.
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They do for now but that is already changing, for one thing they ran out of their pool of cheap labour ~2012 as a consequence of China's One Child policy.

Josh_TN said:
That said, the US likely can likely maintain a lead in the medium term by simply refurbishing and deploying stored warheads to existing delivery systems as discussed previously in the thread.
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Not to mention that the US has literally thousands of pits of various retired and dismantled primaries stored at the Panted facility in Amarillo, Texas along with thousands of stored secondaries from retired and dismantled TN warheads stored at the Y-12 plant in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. These can conceivably used to manufacture new TN warheads.
 
Simplistically stated, during the early part of the Cold War arms race the US policy was overwhelming nuclear superiority to compensate for the USSRs massive conventional superiority.

We just weren’t going to match the number of tanks, APCs, artillery pieces, etc. in their arsenal. Nukes were cheap by comparison.

Well today we find ourselves with an inadequate industrial base at the same time constant recruiting shortfalls. On other threads some have commented to paraphrase “even if we build more we can’t man the platforms anyway”

We seem to be back at building [refurbishing] and redeploying nukes as the best option.
 
sferrin said:
They should add it back to the B-1Bs as well and make a nuclear variant of JASSM-ER.
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Why? Would not the money be better spent on building more B-21 and AGM-181? There is no need to reinvent the wheel or nuclearize a bomber that will be out of service just when the U.S. would need additional platforms.
 
Forest Green said:
Assuming that enters service in time. Now until then is looking a bit worrisome.
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Everything I’ve read indicates flight tests are going well. Certainly starting over from scratch with a different platform and vendor is hardly going to speed the process.
 

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