Inside the Air Force - 07/03/2015
GBSD pegged at $62 billion
Air Force Eyes $160B Tab For New Nuclear Modernization Projects
Posted: July 01, 2015
The Air Force could require as much as $160 billion to modernize its portion of the U.S. military's nuclear enterprise, a sum expected to propel annual spending across the Defense Department's strategic weapons accounts to more than $18 billion beginning in the next decade -- well beyond forecasted funding levels. The price tag for the Air Force's nuclear modernization needs is beginning to take shape as the service finalizes draft plans for a new intercontinental ballistic missile, a new nuclear-armed, air-launched cruise missile, and expects this summer to advance development of a new bomber. Trade publications in recent months have reported internal, draft cost-estimates for two new Air Force programs critical to modernizing the strategic weapons portfolio. The service is considering a $62.3 billion plan as one way to meet the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent requirement to keep the ICBM force operational beyond the end of the Minuteman III's service life in 2030, Nuclear Security and Deterrence Monitor reported last month.
Maj. Melissa Milner, an Air Force spokeswoman, confirmed on June 30 that a February 2015 draft estimate for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent Program tallied $48.5 billion for new missiles, $6.9 billion for command and control systems, and $6.9 billion for renovation of launch control centers and launch facilities. Meantime, Arms Control Today shed new light on the program last week, reporting the Air Force is eyeing 642 new missiles, 400 of which would be operationally deployed. In May, Arms Control Today, citing unnamed sources, reported the Air Force portion of the Long-Range Standoff Weapon, a nuclear-armed, air-launched cruise missile, could be as much as $9 billion.
As soon as this month, the Air Force is expected to select a design -- and a builder -- for a new long-range strike bomber, a program defense analysts estimate could cost at least $90 billion to develop and procure. Meanwhile, the Navy is moving ahead with plans to build a new ballistic missile submarine, the Ohio-class Replacement program, which the service estimates will cost $139 billion to acquire a fleet of 12 boats. In addition, the Navy is contemplating what actions it will need to take in the near future to ensure this new ballistic missile submarine has a strategic weapon after the current Trident II missile reaches the end of its service life in the early 2040s.
"After adding the cost of making required improvements to our nuclear command-and-control systems, modernizing and sustaining our nuclear arsenal is projected to cost the Department of Defense an average of $18 billion per year from 2021 to 2035 in FY-16 dollars," Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work told the House Armed Services Committee on June 25. "This is approximately 3.4 percent of our current, topline defense budget. When combined with the continuing cost to sustain the current force while we build the new one this will roughly double the share of the defense budget allocated to the nuclear mission. This will require very hard choices and increased risk in some missions without additional funding above current defense budget levels." In April, the Pentagon's top weapons buyer said current Air Force and Navy strategic forces modernization plans are unaffordable, unless the Defense Department can secure an additional $10 billion to $12 billion annually beginning in 2021.
Earlier this year, Defense Secretary Ash Carter directed a review of strategic forces modernization plans with an eye toward scrutinizing whether the estimated program costs might be pared back. Senior Pentagon officials believe there are limited options available to pay for these modernization programs within the current U.S. military spending profile. Higher budgets are necessary, these officials argue. Total DOD spending on strategic forces in FY-16 is nearly $12 billion, set to increase to $14.5 billion annually in FY-17 and FY-18, $16.6 billion in FY-19, and then dip to $14.9 billion in FY-20, according to the National Defense Budget Estimates for FY-16, published in March. -- Jason Sherman