CSBA "Third Offset" paper

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bobbymike said:
http://breakingdefense.com/2016/10/new-army-long-range-missile-might-kill-ships-too-lrpf/
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I did have to laugh at one interview with a LM program manger (I believe she was). Very careful to say "499km". She even corrected the interviewer and they had a chuckle. Personally I think it's silly we're even worrying about that. Iskander certainly exceeds it as do many other missiles used around the world. China is building a whole slew of types of conventional ballistic weapons that do. India and countries in the Middle East as well.
 
sferrin said:
bobbymike said:
http://breakingdefense.com/2016/10/new-army-long-range-missile-might-kill-ships-too-lrpf/
Click to expand...

I did have to laugh at one interview with a LM program manger (I believe she was). Very careful to say "499km". She even corrected the interviewer and they had a chuckle. Personally I think it's sill we're even worrying about that. Iskander certainly exceeds it as do many other missiles used around the world. China is building a whole slew of types of conventional ballistic weapons that do. India and countries in the Middle East as well.
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It seems silly to be a party to a treaty that your probable main military adversary in the 21st Century is not and this not only includes INF but of course every nuclear agreement. INF should not pertain to conventional systems this would expand our strike capabilities and invigorate the solid rocket motor industry if we would build varying missiles of ranges of 1k to 5k mile ranges with different payloads potentially up to multi-ton to hold a few BG vehicles.
 
https://www.cnas.org/publications/blog/a-ready-modern-force
 
https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23667/a-threat-to-americas-global-vigilance-reach-and-power-high-speed-maneuvering-weapons
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/26/us/pentagon-artificial-intelligence-terminator.html?_r=1
 
http://breakingdefense.com/2016/10/marines-seek-to-outnumber-enemies-with-robots/
 
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-us-navy-just-gave-us-the-inside-scoop-the-distributed-18185
 
As I mentioned in another post I am posting 'concept of operations' links that ultimately, IMHO, form part of 'Third Offset' strategy to facilitate easier future searches.

http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2015/04/navy-preparing-launch-swarm-bots-out-cannons/110167/?oref=DefenseOneFB
 
https://www.mca-marines.org/gazette/2016/11/21st-century-maneuver-warfare?utm_source=21st%20Century%20Manuever%20Warfare%20-%20Gazette%20November%202016%20E-Pub%20Blast&utm_campaign=21st%20Century%20Manuever%20Warfare%20-%20Gazette%20November%202016%#
 
https://news.usni.org/2016/10/28/officials-third-offset-strategy-key-maintaining-u-s-military-technology-dominance

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_8X29NcKqw
 
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/air-force-diux-seeking-out-enders-game-technology-to-enable-drone-swarms

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/distributed-lethality-beyond-the-us-navy-evolving-right-18251
 
Pictures from AFA Tech Expo

Page 1 picture (2) ATK Hatchet mini-precision glide weapon

http://www.airforcemag.com/MagazineArchive/Magazine%20Documents/2016/November%202016/1116expo.pdf
 
http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/11/us-armys-chief-futurist-says-russia.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29&utm_content=FaceBook
 
http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=2341
 
AFRL-Funded AI Beats Fighter Pilots in Simulated Dogfights

— Angus Batey 11/18/2016

​London—An Air Force Research Laboratory program initiated to help improve simulators may hold the key to one of combat aviation's next big challenges—harnessing the potential of unmanned "swarms" and manned-unmanned teaming. The program, dubbed Alpha, began life as an attempt to improve the adversary algorithms in the Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration and Modelling program, delivered by Boeing to AFRL in 2013. The fuzzy logic-based artificial intelligence—created by Psibernetix, a three-man Ohio-based company—has achieved remarkable successes in a recent series of demanding simulated battles alongside, and against, experienced human pilots. During a presentation Wednesday to Defence IQ's International Fighter conference in London, Nick Ernest, CEO of Psibernetix, described how 12 fighter pilots had flown simulated air battles with and against Alpha-piloted platforms. In man-vs.-machine contests, the humans were given a representative simulated platform with good conventional fighter performance and AWACS support: Alpha operated with significant restrictions. "They turned us down to 1.9 radial Gs, which is pretty low for a fighter aircraft," Ernest said. "And we were restricted to 0.19 max for linear Gs, which is about 75 percent of the acceleration of a Honda Odyssey minivan. Additionally, we had 200 knots less max speed, shorter-range missiles, and we didn't have AWACS." Despite the capability gap, Alpha scored numerous wins against the humans, in both four-vs.-two and two-vs.-two set-ups. Unlike many other artificial-intelligence projects, Alpha requires very little computing power—it runs on a $35 Raspberry Pi—and it not only learns for itself, its processes can be validated in seconds. Ernest cautioned that it is still early days for the project. "This is not reality," he emphasised. "There's a great deal of work to be done before it gets too exciting, but [the simulated battle results are] an interesting data point."
 
Alpha scored numerous wins against the humans, in both four-vs.-two and two-vs.-two set-ups. Unlike many other artificial-intelligence projects, Alpha requires very little computing power—it runs on a $35 Raspberry Pi

If these tests are valid it isn't very flattering for pilots. On the other hand, if the strategy and tactics can be executed on "a $35 Raspberry Pi", most pilots should be able to learn and master the techniques.
 

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fredymac said:
Alpha scored numerous wins against the humans, in both four-vs.-two and two-vs.-two set-ups. Unlike many other artificial-intelligence projects, Alpha requires very little computing power—it runs on a $35 Raspberry Pi

If these tests are valid it isn't very flattering for pilots. On the other hand, if the strategy and tactics can be executed on "a $35 Raspberry Pi", most pilots should be able to learn and master the techniques.
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Are the Alpha piloted platforms directly connected to the control surfaces and mission systems? Meaning that the Alpha AI doesn't have to read a display (which has had computing time devoted to it to make output more understandable to a human), make a decision and then physically manipulate some side stick or throttle or user interface.

Also, continuous and near instantaneous awareness of things like signature and energy state would help the route planner devise optimal or near-optimal maneuvers.

...or I could just read the paper

http://magazine.uc.edu/editors_picks/recent_features/alpha.html
 

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This part of the story seems to provide some clues:

"They turned us down to 1.9 radial Gs, which is pretty low for a fighter aircraft," Ernest said. "And we were restricted to 0.19 max for linear Gs, which is about 75 percent of the acceleration of a Honda Odyssey minivan. Additionally, we had 200 knots less max speed, shorter-range missiles, and we didn't have AWACS."

You can assume no dogfighting was involved. A long time ago, the Air Force conducted a study indicating that the major percentage of aerial shootdowns occurred without the victim aware of an impending attack. A simple algorithm that can estimate visual and radar coverage zones (as degraded by human behavioral preferences) and pick the optimal route to minimize exposure to them might provide a low performance, non stealthy aircraft a path to slip in for an error free pot shot.

If, on the other hand, an AI beats a human pilot in a classic visual range dogfight and does so in a decidedly inferior platform, then it might be time to start pulling pilots out or at least providing them an R2D2 to help out. All this dovetails with the "information is life" mantra of the F-35.
 
fredymac said:
"They turned us down to 1.9 radial Gs, which is pretty low for a fighter aircraft," Ernest said. "And we were restricted to 0.19 max for linear Gs, which is about 75 percent of the acceleration of a Honda Odyssey minivan. Additionally, we had 200 knots less max speed, shorter-range missiles, and we didn't have AWACS."
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Just minor details. ;)
 
https://www.nap.edu/download/23667

A Threat to America's Global Vigilance, Reach, and Power–High-Speed, Maneuvering Weapons:
Unclassified Summary
 
http://aviationweek.com/defense/out-shadows-pentagons-strategic-capabilities-office#slide-0-field_images-1543011
 
https://news.usni.org/2016/11/22/marines-say-future-high-end-fight
 
http://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1016994/diux-releases-guide-for-faster-less-costly-technology-acquisition
 
Didn't want to create a new thread for this BAE Systems commercial so I'll just put it here.

1:00-1:05 mark shows an active protection system being tested

1:32 mark shows what may be a GPS artillery shell hitting a ship.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGYscLl0TVo
 
1:32 the target is surrounded by sage brush so probably not at sea. ;)
 
Ouch. Seems like ears can overrule eyeballs. The narrative was "at sea" and as long as it plausibly looked like it might be water that was what registered. I was thinking about the BAE guided shells that can be used by naval guns. I would not be surprised if they have in fact conducted such tests but haven't released any videos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iA_CQLAtCrs&feature=youtu.be
 
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=467e1087a73adcd3fdf9e5a515384f00&tab=core&_cview=0
 
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/advanced-tech-needed-for-inevitable-high-end-conflict
 
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/big-space-reorganization-coming-house-strategic-forces-chairman-mike-rogers-says
 
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/report-strategy-not-acquisition-reform-central-to-maintain-dod-tech-edge

Full Report: https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/future-foundry
 
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-need-aircraft-carriers-combat-ships-global-threats-2016-12
 
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-missile-defense-signing-20161223-story.html
 
http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/12/30/the_sinews_of_multi-domain_battle_110564.html
 
https://warisboring.com/the-u-s-army-is-on-a-modernization-blitz-2200150c1e69#.75nx0bv9t
 
http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/01/future-us-military-aircraft-development.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29&utm_content=FaceBook
 
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/179978/china-justifies-deploying-missiles-on-south-china-sea-islands.html

"Fox News reported that China has deployed more than 500 missiles on South China Sea islands, including CSA-6B and HQ-9 missiles, as well as the anti-ballistic missile interceptor HQ-26."

http://www.popsci.com/chinas-new-mystery-missile-and-launcher
 
sferrin said:
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/179978/china-justifies-deploying-missiles-on-south-china-sea-islands.html

"Fox News reported that China has deployed more than 500 missiles on South China Sea islands, including CSA-6B and HQ-9 missiles, as well as the anti-ballistic missile interceptor HQ-26."

http://www.popsci.com/chinas-new-mystery-missile-and-launcher
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Looks like GLCM from the 80's

Why are we a party to the INF Treaty when our main adversaries are not?
 
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