BAe Tempest and other pre-GCAP studies

yasotay said:
Wonder where AUS will be on this? They have really stepped out recently with joining into future capability development. Politically getting into a Commonwealth program would seem more viable. However I admit to utter ignorance to the politics of the Commonwealth.
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It will be interesting to see what happens to the US NGAD program export wise before Australia commits to buying any Tempests, after all the US stopped the export of the F-22 to friendly countries.
 
FighterJock said:
It will be interesting to see what happens to the US NGAD program export wise before Australia commits to buying any Tempests, after all the US stopped the export of the F-22 to friendly countries.
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It was widely reported at the time that if the UK had approached the US and requested F-22 that it was likely the US would have sold it. It wasn't going to happen of course as Typhoon was underway, but there were issues around Typhoon at the time, particularly with the German commitment and delays as a result. I think the US would have sold it to the UK, and it follows then that Australia would have almost as good a chance to get their hands on it, same with Canada. All Five Eyes, Anglophone and vital for US defence. All tend to turn up for a fight as well.
 
timmymagic said:
FighterJock said:
It will be interesting to see what happens to the US NGAD program export wise before Australia commits to buying any Tempests, after all the US stopped the export of the F-22 to friendly countries.
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It was widely reported at the time that if the UK had approached the US and requested F-22 that it was likely the US would have sold it. It wasn't going to happen of course as Typhoon was underway, but there were issues around Typhoon at the time, particularly with the German commitment and delays as a result. I think the US would have sold it to the UK, and it follows then that Australia would have almost as good a chance to get their hands on it, same with Canada. All Five Eyes, Anglophone and vital for US defence. All tend to turn up for a fight as well.
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Thanks for the information timmymagic, I did not know that the RAF had approached the US about selling the F-22 when the Typhoon was going through problems with Germany.
 
FighterJock said:
Thanks for the information timmymagic, I did not know that the RAF had approached the US about selling the F-22 when the Typhoon was going through problems with Germany.
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There was no approach, but there were plenty of hints received at the time that the UK approaching them would be received very positively. Remember at the time the UK had had exchange pilots on F-117 whilst it was a black project (from 1986 onwards, with visibility of the project before then) and UK pilots have flown exchange on F-22 from near its entry to service. No real secrets there.
 
The only time this makes sense is when the Germans threatened the entire program and it would cost a fortune to rejig production to exclude them......
Actually thinking on that maybe several occasions.
 
Archibald said:
Whoa whoa... wait a minute. So Tempest will be a British-Italian-Japanese tripartite program ? Now that's not the kind of aerospace alliance one see every day.
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I think the Swedes will actually join soon. With Gripen E's limited sales its the only long term game for them.
 
All this countries have the same expectations (but perhaps Sweden) : Air dominance with long loiter time at range and supercruise. UK over the Nth Sea, Italy above the Med, Japan above the Sea of Japan and East China Sea. This case scenario was long predictable and... Predicted early.
 
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TomcatViP said:
(but perhaps Sweden)
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With Sweden very likely to join NATO with Finland that use case might change as well...they may well be looking to have longer range requirements to support Norway and Finland now, and push North into the Arctic...they'll have been watching Russia use strategic bombers in Ukraine launching missiles from long distance as well as the rest of us..
 
Certainly if you're flying from Sweden, patrol over Finland and dare we say offensive Counter Air penetration will require a good amount range.
And it's easier to fly at lower fuel weights than have to degrade LO RCS with drop tanks that also degrade performance and occupy pylons.
 
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Well it secures the engine for Tempest if nothing else. We'll have to wait to see what radar and avionics cross-over.
Whether or not the airframes will merge we'll see in time - the bean counters probably already salvating over the prospects. But the proportion of indigenous kit Japan might want to impose might well preclude a full merger.

(It's possible if Japan drops its high home content then it might open up exports for F-X but BAenardoaab are unlikely to want to unwittingly launch an export rival right in the middle of the Asian market)
 
GTX said:
That comment makes little sense.
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Not me who made it. But the UK's defence pact with Sweden and Finland that was recently signed to cover the interim period whilst NATO acceptance is underway has gone down very well over there and been widely praised, this is in addition to the UK's support to Ukraine and the Baltic states, all the while France and Germany's reputation in those areas has been declining.
 
Signing a Defence pact does not automatically lead to entering an aircraft development program.

Joining a Defence alliance with multiple members (NATO) does not justify entering an aircraft development program with just one of those.

If anything, Sweden/Saab's history of working with BAE Systems makes more sense to justify this.
 
Hood said:
(It's possible if Japan drops its high home content then it might open up exports for F-X but BAenardoaab are unlikely to want to unwittingly launch an export rival right in the middle of the Asian market)
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Who is even interested in a new fighter in the Asian market? Maybe Singapore are the only country that have money for more details than a dozen and aren't developing their own aircraft?

Are Japan likely to export? Are they likely to win? Seems unlikely
 
red admiral said:
Hood said:
(It's possible if Japan drops its high home content then it might open up exports for F-X but BAenardoaab are unlikely to want to unwittingly launch an export rival right in the middle of the Asian market)
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Who is even interested in a new fighter in the Asian market? Maybe Singapore are the only country that have money for more details than a dozen and aren't developing their own aircraft?

Are Japan likely to export? Are they likely to win? Seems unlikely
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Singapore is not developing their own aircraft. their size/market is too small.
you may be confusing them for Taiwan and South Korea?

As for Japan, they are now more active in exporting defense after some changes in policies.
the most famous of which is the Mogami class ships to Indonesia, and the attempts at selling the US-2 to India.

Not sure who will buy a Japan Only aircraft, but if it is a joint UK-Japan aircraft, there could be some possibilities.
 
GTX said:
Signing a Defence pact does not automatically lead to entering an aircraft development program.
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No it doesn't. But joining that Defence Pact, particularly the JEF side of things in the Baltic and High North will substantially alter the requirements that that countrys air force will have to fulfil...
GTX said:
Joining a Defence alliance with multiple members (NATO) does not justify entering an aircraft development program with just one of those.
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No it doesn't. But they're more than halfway there with their involvement in the UK's FCAS programme anyway...
GTX said:
If anything, Sweden/Saab's history of pithing with BAE Systems makes more sense to justify this.
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And the fact that after Gripen E they're going to be a little short of work...how long can they stretch out production of 70 odd aircraft?
 
starviking said:
helmutkohl said:
red admiral said:
Hood said:
.
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Not sure who will buy a Japan Only aircraft, but if it is a joint UK-Japan aircraft, there could be some possibilities.
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But with the risk that a change in Japanese government blocks off export potential again, to align with the traditional interpretation of the Japanese Constitution.
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what was the situation in other joint projects..
like say Jaguar (France and UK) or Typhoon (UK/Germany/Italy/Spain).
could they continue to sell it if one partner couldn't or did not allow for it?
 
helmutkohl said:
what was the situation in other joint projects..
like say Jaguar (France and UK) or Typhoon (UK/Germany/Italy/Spain).
could they continue to sell it if one partner couldn't or did not allow for it?
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A lot easier. Primarily due to the timeframe though...France and the UK for Jaguar were happy to sell, and had similar policies.

But when you involve Germany things get complicated...Tornado was a little easier because of the timeframe (Cold War) but even then only the UK managed to do export sales with the Al Yamamah contract to Saudi Arabia. With the end of the Cold War and the arrival of Typhoon things got far, far more complicated...Each partner nation has been given 'Sales Territories', mainly in line with countries where they have had good sales success before. So the UK has successfully sold Typhoon to Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar, Italy managed to sell to Kuwait. But....Spain and Germany have been utterly useless. Spain has totally failed to sell anywhere, and appears to have made little effort. Germany managed to offload some of its early Tranche 1 aircraft to Austria to avoid having to pay for and operate them themselves. Apparently they also managed to totally fluff the Switzerland contest back in the day (the original contest, prior to the more recent one won by the F-35) by sending aircraft that were far below the latest production standard, and other basic errors. They've also thrown a spanner in the works on the UK's sale of a further 48 aircraft for Saudi Arabia due to that countrys involvement in the war in Yemen.

I know some people involved in Typhoon (and JSF), specifically around flight control, they're full of praise for the German's on the engineering side (although they note the cultures were very different, they also noted it was actually harder to work with the US...) but on a political and programmatic side they said they'd rather pull their own teeth out than do it again....the feeling was that the French were welcome to them for SCAF, and that they would be better off not being involved in Tempest...too much political baggage.
 
red admiral said:
Who is even interested in a new fighter in the Asian market? Maybe Singapore are the only country that have money for more details than a dozen and aren't developing their own aircraft?

Are Japan likely to export? Are they likely to win? Seems unlikely
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My crystal ball for 2035-40 is kinda cloudy... who knows what craziness might have happened in the region/world by then?

Japan is stymied by politics and the fact its own kit uses... well a lot of their own kit. Politics can vary over time (Tokyo and Berlin both seem to swing on the export issue) but using more Anglo/European/US components will help their export chances.

Typhoon I think has been hampered by this confusing export set up, really Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug GmbH should have been a one-stop export shop.
 
helmutkohl said:
Singapore is not developing their own aircraft. their size/market is too small.
you may be confusing them for Taiwan and South Korea?
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Apologies my post could have been clearer.

I meant almost all potential customers in the region apart from Singapore are doing their own indigenous development programmes.
 
Yes they are but not 6th Gen supercruisers with bespoke advanced engines and avionics and goodies like improved Meteor LRAAMs in their concealed bays.
India might have completed its Rafale lookalike by 2040, KFX will be 5th Gen at best and has a mix of stealthy/non-stealthy variants. LM will probably have sold another 200+ F-35s to the region by then (maybe even F-35s to India).

Tempest/SCAF/NGAD/F-X will be aiming for the luxury segment, the air forces that can afford billions on hyperfighter systems with loyal wingmen. Its a tiny market - even assuming the oil rich nations remain oil rich in 20 years time - and crowded by competitors.

Anyhow, let's not hyperventilate - wait to see wait tech demonstrators appear before we assess the degree of overlap.
 
to be honest.. I'm still not quite sure what the boundaries between the characteristics of a 5th gen and 6th gen aircraft is supposed to be.

What will the Tempest offer over existing 5th gen aircraft for prospective users?
 
Not clear yet is it? We will as usual find out more in the way of facts in the years leading to success or failure. Either way, better to have an alternate to US designs/supply.
 
Choice.
Better to have choice than not.
And choice, variation is essential for both meeting demand and sustaining a market.
Not a free market of course. It was never that.
 
helmutkohl said:
starviking said:
helmutkohl said:
red admiral said:
Hood said:
.
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Not sure who will buy a Japan Only aircraft, but if it is a joint UK-Japan aircraft, there could be some possibilities.
Click to expand...
But with the risk that a change in Japanese government blocks off export potential again, to align with the traditional interpretation of the Japanese Constitution.
Click to expand...
what was the situation in other joint projects..
like say Jaguar (France and UK) or Typhoon (UK/Germany/Italy/Spain).
could they continue to sell it if one partner couldn't or did not allow for it?
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I think a lot of replies have answered your questions, but I think Japan is a great risk given that:

A - international collaborators now have partners focusing on specific parts of the product, with little or no duplication of effort.
B - Japan has traditionally avoided arms exports due to the popular interpretation of the Constitution.
C - The Constitution is a key contentious political point.
D - Japan, like Germany, has stymied military-related exports in the past (In Japan’s case, IHI refusing to supply Spey spares to the Royal Navy).
Any joint agreement would need to be very well constructed, and very explicit in the Japanese version.
 
timmymagic said:
Archibald said:
Whoa whoa... wait a minute. So Tempest will be a British-Italian-Japanese tripartite program ? Now that's not the kind of aerospace alliance one see every day.
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I think the Swedes will actually join soon. With Gripen E's limited sales its the only long term game for them.
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Sweden has alredy joined the Tempest program.

Italy, UK and Sweden sign MoU on development of Tempest

Italian Defence Minister Lorenzo Guerini, UK Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace, and Swedish Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist signed a trilateral memorandum of...
www.janes.com
 
If this is true...its huge...

Wonder if this will also force the Swedes hand and see them go for full involvement in Tempest...

Wouldn't be shocked if this added even more pressure on SCAF...

www.reuters.com

EXCLUSIVE Britain and Japan aim to merge Tempest and F-X fighter programmes-sources

Britain and Japan are close to an agreement to merge their next-generation Tempest and F-X fighter jet programmes, with the two countries aiming for a deal on a new joint project by year-end, three sources told Reuters.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
timmymagic said:
If this is true...its huge...

Wonder if this will also force the Swedes hand and see them go for full involvement in Tempest...

Wouldn't be shocked if this added even more pressure on SCAF...

www.reuters.com

EXCLUSIVE Britain and Japan aim to merge Tempest and F-X fighter programmes-sources

Britain and Japan are close to an agreement to merge their next-generation Tempest and F-X fighter jet programmes, with the two countries aiming for a deal on a new joint project by year-end, three sources told Reuters.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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I think in the long run the merger of the Tempest and the F-X program will benefit both countries technologically speaking.
 
Hey guys, this is natural. It was meant to happen.

Sad that Boris had to go. Even he if was not the architect of that, he certainly was the only political representative with a good insight on the matter and the right move to make it possible.

Same for Abe, odiously killed, without whom this would not have happened.

Before binging on too much sake or Ale, ppl in Japan and the UK should have a though on that.
 
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I wonder what the shape of the aircraft will look like if the two projects are merged. I think there is a possibility that a completely new shape will come out, not the concept CG of Tempest or F-X that we've seen so far.
 

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