AUKUS Treaty NEWS ONLY

[GTX]

Regardless of how much support there is for AUKUS in the US, the fact is that the necessary investments in the submarine industrial base are not being made. Sub construction is falling further and further behind schedule. If investments aren't made to expand production and shipyard capacity during this next administration, I don't think the Virginias for Australia will exist.

This is a risk. I know however that Australian Industry is trying to assist with capacity and the like.

 

[Moose]

Regardless of how much support there is for AUKUS in the US, the fact is that the necessary investments in the submarine industrial base are not being made. Sub construction is falling further and further behind schedule. If investments aren't made to expand production and shipyard capacity during this next administration, I don't think the Virginias for Australia will exist.

Investments are being made but slowly and held back by Congress' inability to pass a budget. Both major sub yards have been expanding their production capabilities, and Austal has taken on submarine work in support of GD and HII. SSN production has risen above 1.3 boats/year while SSBN production has started. It's not where we want it to be, we wanted to be at 1.5 this year, and it will still take time and money to get there. But describing it as "nothing is being done" and "no investments are being made" is not correct. Failure to acknowledge the reality of the issue is exactly how we got here and we cannot continue to do that going forward.

 

[Halcyon66]

I don't think Australia initiated the treaty, you ever heard of Scott Morrison?

This process was done in the shadows and blindsided the French.

Now Scotty has a new job as well.

The current government is stuck with the gig

Inside Labor’s angst over AUKUS

Labor’s opposition to the Vietnam War and 2003 Iraq invasion may have cost it two elections, but they were the right calls, writes former senator Kim Carr in his new book.

www.afr.com

Regards,

 

[GTX]

I don't think Australia initiated the treaty, you ever heard of Scott Morrison?

Scott Morrison was PM and thus represented Australia. this was a Government initiative, not one man's.

This process was done in the shadows and blindsided the French.

And so??

The current government is stuck with the gig

And they were in support of it whilst in Opposition and have done nothing to reverse it despite now being in power for the best part of 3yrs. Having spoken to numerous senior Government officials, including ministerial level, I can assure you that there is no intention to reverse course..

 

[Halcyon66]

Of course, current labor ministers have to tow the party line, I am assuming you understand politics.

Former Labor foreign minister Gareth Evans says Australia won’t have sovereignty over Aukus submarines

Evans says Anthony Albanese should have reviewed Aukus when he came to power in 2022 and that the PM is too risk-averse

www.theguardian.com

Of course there are many more against it.

You indicated previously that the majority of Australians want AUKUS. And ~61% say they 'somewhat' or 'strongly' support Australia using nuclear power to generate electricity to bring down domestic power prices.

Yet cannot seem to grasp that it will do nothing for the current prices and if it even occurs will be 30+ years away.

Not sure what that says about polling, Australians and majorities?

Since your so for AUKUS you must not be Australian, correct? As most Australians I know are not for it.

This relates directly to our sovereignty and economy.

Regards,

 

[GK Dundas]

Of course, current labor ministers have to tow the party line, I am assuming you understand politics.

Former Labor foreign minister Gareth Evans says Australia won’t have sovereignty over Aukus submarines

Evans says Anthony Albanese should have reviewed Aukus when he came to power in 2022 and that the PM is too risk-averse

www.theguardian.com

Of course there are many more against it.

You indicated previously that the majority of Australians want AUKUS. And ~61% say they 'somewhat' or 'strongly' support Australia using nuclear power to generate electricity to bring down domestic power prices.

Yet cannot seem to grasp that it will do nothing for the current prices and if it even occurs will be 30+ years away.

Not sure what that says about polling, Australians and majorities?

Since your so for AUKUS you must not be Australian, correct? As most Australians I know are not for it.

This relates directly to our sovereignty and economy.

Regards,

I must say I'm impressed not too many people can tell where a person is from based on the degree to which agree or disagree.... you're, you're special!

 

[Halcyon66]

Should see what I can do with a deck of cards .

AUKUS, the China threat and Chinese-Australian communities

natrot / Shutterstock

www.uts.edu.au

"First, over recent years Australia has been witnessing the formation of what Lancaster University academic Andrew Chubb dubs a ‘coalition of securitisers’, comprising politicians, intelligence officials and journalists. The work of this coalition has significantly primed public opinion, making it easier to render the AUKUS agreement palatable to the public by actively promoting a narrative of the ‘China threat’."

UTS:ACRI/BIDA Poll 2024

Introduction and executive summary Full report

www.uts.edu.au

"Acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS: Nearly half of Australians (48 percent) agreed that ‘The Australian government’s plan to acquire nuclear submarines under the Australia–UK–US (AUKUS) trilateral security partnership will help keep Australia secure from a military threat from China’, a four-point increase from when the view was first measured in 2023 (44 percent)."

Regards,

 

[GTX]

Of course, current labor ministers have to tow the party line, I am assuming you understand politics.

Former Labor foreign minister Gareth Evans says Australia won’t have sovereignty over Aukus submarines

Evans says Anthony Albanese should have reviewed Aukus when he came to power in 2022 and that the PM is too risk-averse

www.theguardian.com

Of course there are many more against it.

You indicated previously that the majority of Australians want AUKUS. And ~61% say they 'somewhat' or 'strongly' support Australia using nuclear power to generate electricity to bring down domestic power prices.

Yet cannot seem to grasp that it will do nothing for the current prices and if it even occurs will be 30+ years away.

Not sure what that says about polling, Australians and majorities?

Since your so for AUKUS you must not be Australian, correct? As most Australians I know are not for it.

This relates directly to our sovereignty and economy.

Regards,

I am not going to bother wasting my time picking apart your comments especially as they pertain to me personally. I will just say however that you should realise that I am an Australian, have served in the ADF, am very very cognisant of Australian politics (including having dealt directly with those of ministerial level) and continue to operate within the Australian Defence environment.

It is obvious you don't like AUKUS. We get it. This is supposed to be a thread about AUKUS news not your opinions on it. If you have news than post it, otherwise stop polluting the thread.

 

[Halcyon66]

I stand corrected.

Regards,

 

[Halcyon66]

President Trump and Australia's National Security - Pearls and Irritations

Australia needs to persuade the Trump Administration that no country can expect to dominate our region and the benefits of cooperation.

johnmenadue.com

Regards,

 

[Foo Fighter]

Well, every pearl starts with a grain of sand stuck somewhere.....

 

[Ozair]

President Trump and Australia's National Security - Pearls and Irritations

Australia needs to persuade the Trump Administration that no country can expect to dominate our region and the benefits of cooperation.

johnmenadue.com

Regards,

The problem is

Australia should do its best to persuade the Trump Administration that it is in America’s interests to accept that China is an equally powerful neighbour that isn’t going to go away, and that there are major benefits from restoring the necessary protocols that allow peaceful cooperation in our region and where America would continue to have a major leadership role

Michael is bonkers if he believes it is possible for China to operate that way. They do not respect the rule of law and the globe knows this, the evidence is beyond doubt. Michael has conveniently decided to ignore that possibility. In the context of Australia, if you know one big bully doesn't play nice with its neighbours then perhaps it is better to be friendly with the other bully that at least has a slightly better record.

 

[Forest Green]

Aussies announce $163M more for AUKUS initiatives, experts skeptical of 'substance' - Breaking Defense

"The Albanese Government must not continue to treat the Australian public as bystanders in our own security dialogue, and repackaging or dusting off old announcements is borderline offensive," Elizabeth Buchanan, a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told Breaking Defense.

breakingdefense.com

 

[Halcyon66]

Trump 2.0: new deals on AUKUS and defence spending - Strategic Analysis Australia

Strategic Analysis Australia

strategicanalysis.org

Regards,

 

[Halcyon66]

AUKUS Navies Trial Hugin Drone for Underwater Missions

The UK Royal Navy has partnered with its US and Australian counterparts to assess the Hugin system’s effectiveness in underwater warfare.

thedefensepost.com

Regards,

 

[Grey Havoc]

Australia continues to support local industry to join AUKUS submarine supply chains - Naval News

The Australian Government is investing an additional $262 million to support local defence industry and develop Australia’s AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine supply chain.

www.navalnews.com

 

[Scott Kenny]

Australia continues to support local industry to join AUKUS submarine supply chains - Naval News

The Australian Government is investing an additional $262 million to support local defence industry and develop Australia’s AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine supply chain.

www.navalnews.com

This is honestly really good. Highly skilled welders, various engineers, a whole pile of precision equipment manufacturing, all means good wages and jobs, which then means that they have more money to spend in the community.

 

[Halcyon66]

This is honestly really good. Highly skilled welders, various engineers, a whole pile of precision equipment manufacturing, all means good wages and jobs, which then means that they have more money to spend in the community.

The unnerving truth about how Australia will pay for its new nuclear submarines

To pay for megaprojects like Australia's new nuclear submarine program, or the COVID-era JobKeeper scheme, the Government has to find an awful lot of money from somewhere. Or does it? Peter Martin explains.

www.abc.net.au

Unfortunately, not, we are already experiencing high inflation, and an increase in jobs and wages boosts household incomes, which, in turn, drives up consumer spending. This rise in spending increases aggregate demand, providing businesses with more opportunities to raise the prices of their goods and services. When this pattern is widespread across various industries and sectors, it contributes to a further rise in inflation.

Already our $ has fallen to ~0.63 due to falling demand by China for our exports meaning that imports cost more across the board which also increases inflation.

If the RBA cuts interest rates next meeting, then our $ will fall further.

The current AUS govt is being hounded by the coalition (AUKUS instigators) for ongoing spending as it is inflationary.

Regards,

 

[GTX]

This is honestly really good. Highly skilled welders, various engineers, a whole pile of precision equipment manufacturing, all means good wages and jobs, which then means that they have more money to spend in the community.

I know some of the companies involved providing their capabilities to this effort.

 

[GTX]

The unnerving truth about how Australia will pay for its new nuclear submarines

To pay for megaprojects like Australia's new nuclear submarine program, or the COVID-era JobKeeper scheme, the Government has to find an awful lot of money from somewhere. Or does it? Peter Martin explains.

www.abc.net.au

Just note that this story is from nearly 2yrs ago...just in case anyone thought it was new.

Unfortunately, not, we are already experiencing high inflation,

Hmmm...2.8% currently:

and an increase in jobs and wages boosts household incomes, which, in turn, drives up consumer spending. This rise in spending increases aggregate demand, providing businesses with more opportunities to raise the prices of their goods and services. When this pattern is widespread across various industries and sectors, it contributes to a further rise in inflation.

So you don't want an increase in jobs and wages??

Already our $ has fallen to ~0.63 due to falling demand by China for our exports meaning that imports cost more across the board which also increases inflation.

Lower exchange rates also greatly help our exports.

If the RBA cuts interest rates next meeting, then our $ will fall further.

Not necessarily. even if it does, are you saying you don't want interest rates to be cut??

The current AUS govt is being hounded by the coalition (AUKUS instigators) for ongoing spending as it is inflationary.

It's an election year. The Opposition will hound the Govt no matter what the topic or the decision...

 

[Halcyon66]

Once again, the idea that a lower dollar is beneficial needs rethinking. Australia’s two largest exports, iron ore (Fe) and coal, make up over 30% of our total exports. Yet, Australia runs a current account deficit, meaning we import more than we export. So how does a lower dollar help when it creates more problems than it solves?

When Fe and coal prices were at their previous highs—$212 USD ($271 AUD) and $457 USD ($585 AUD), respectively, the AUD was trading at around $0.78. Now, with prices down to $101 USD ($160 AUD) and $116 USD ($193 AUD), the AUD has dropped to $0.62 or a ~23% fall in the same period.

Since Fe and coal prices have a high correlation with the AUD, weaker demand causes both commodity prices and the AUD to fall. This creates a considerable revenue problem. To maintain the same revenue, we would need to sell far higher volumes of both Fe and coal. But that’s not happening.

Even if an exporter increased exports by 10% (which is a significant jump) they would still see a 13% loss in revenue due to the lower AUD. Factor in rising manufacturing costs (e.g., 5%), and exporters are worse off overall. A weaker dollar doesn’t compensate for falling demand or lower prices—it amplifies the pain.

Meanwhile, imports get more expensive, and Australia imports a lot. Here are just some of the big ticket items:

Petroleum oils (not crude): $50.75 billion
Motor vehicles (passenger): $34.8 billion
Electrical apparatus for telephony: $12.95 billion
Medicines: $8.96 billion
Crude petroleum oils: $7.96 billion

With a weaker AUD, all these imports cost more, pushing inflation higher. Higher inflation means the Reserve Bank will likely raise interest rates, adding more pressure on households and businesses.

In Brief: Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2024

In Brief: Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2024

www.rba.gov.au

On top of that, Australia raises a significant amount of funding from offshore debt markets. A lower AUD increases repayment costs, putting even more strain on the economy.

So, even if demand for exports increases, falling prices and higher costs mean exporters earn less. Meanwhile, higher import costs drive inflation and debt servicing costs higher. In short, a lower AUD doesn’t help—it hurts.

Australia does not even make cars anymore, yet all of a sudden, we can build nuclear subs?

Yes, I do not want rate drops, I am more concerned about the next 12–24 months than some hypothetical trillion dollar, 30+yr pipe dream. Cutting interest rates now would only make inflation worse and create further instability.

Regards,

 

[GTX]

Once again, the idea that a lower dollar is beneficial needs rethinking. Australia’s two largest exports, iron ore (Fe) and coal, make up over 30% of our total exports. Yet, Australia runs a current account deficit, meaning we import more than we export. So how does a lower dollar help when it creates more problems than it solves?

If you read what I said was "Lower exchange rates also greatly help our exports." This is definitely the case.

When Fe and coal prices were at their previous highs—$212 USD ($271 AUD) and $457 USD ($585 AUD), respectively, the AUD was trading at around $0.78. Now, with prices down to $101 USD ($160 AUD) and $116 USD ($193 AUD), the AUD has dropped to $0.62 or a ~23% fall in the same period.

Since Fe and coal prices have a high correlation with the AUD, weaker demand causes both commodity prices and the AUD to fall. This creates a considerable revenue problem. To maintain the same revenue, we would need to sell far higher volumes of both Fe and coal. But that’s not happening.

Even if an exporter increased exports by 10% (which is a significant jump) they would still see a 13% loss in revenue due to the lower AUD. Factor in rising manufacturing costs (e.g., 5%), and exporters are worse off overall. A weaker dollar doesn’t compensate for falling demand or lower prices—it amplifies the pain.

Meanwhile, imports get more expensive, and Australia imports a lot. Here are just some of the big ticket items:

Petroleum oils (not crude): $50.75 billion
Motor vehicles (passenger): $34.8 billion
Electrical apparatus for telephony: $12.95 billion
Medicines: $8.96 billion
Crude petroleum oils: $7.96 billion

With a weaker AUD, all these imports cost more, pushing inflation higher. Higher inflation means the Reserve Bank will likely raise interest rates, adding more pressure on households and businesses.

In Brief: Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2024

In Brief: Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2024

www.rba.gov.au

On top of that, Australia raises a significant amount of funding from offshore debt markets. A lower AUD increases repayment costs, putting even more strain on the economy.

So, even if demand for exports increases, falling prices and higher costs mean exporters earn less. Meanwhile, higher import costs drive inflation and debt servicing costs higher. In short, a lower AUD doesn’t help—it hurts.

Blah, blah, blah....off topic. Please try to stay on topic. As already stated, it is obvious you don't like AUKUS. We get it. This is supposed to be a thread about AUKUS news not your opinions on it. If you have news then post it, otherwise stop polluting the thread.

yet all of a sudden, we can build nuclear subs?

Has anyone said anywhere about "all of a sudden"? The building of the first boat is to begin by the end of the 2030s with the boat delivered in the early 2040s.

 

[Halcyon66]

Blah, blah, blah....off topic. Please try to stay on topic. As already stated, it is obvious you don't like AUKUS. We get it. This is supposed to be a thread about AUKUS news not your opinions on it. If you have news then post it, otherwise stop polluting the thread.

The above has zero to do with whether I am pro or con AUKUS is it purely economics.

My thoughts on AUKUS are actually based on reality not ongoing smoke and mirrors.

Where will Australia’s AUKUS submarine workforce come from? | PS News

During the COVID-19 pandemic, material and labour supply chains across the world were severely constrained. Factories closed, workers stayed home…

psnews.com.au

We have a considerable labour shortage in a number of industries Australia wide, the housing construction industry for one see's a 100k shortfall. Currently 33% of occupations across Australia are facing a shortage. Not sure how trying to create new new jobs will help?

Gen Z is turning away from military service in record numbers. We’re trying to understand why

The Australian Defence Force is in desperate need of more recruits. How could they get more Gen Z people on board?

theconversation.com

Again reality.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/special-reports/the-doomed-conceit-of-a-political-aukus/news-story/996bdefa821b03c6559b51c1a3286b26

For the fact is this: Australia, the UK and the US are competing for a declining workforce incapable of meeting the current needs of the UK and the US, far less of delivering a new platform for Australia.

Does AUKUS have public support?

It depends on how you ask the question...

www.crikey.com.au

"Don't think of an Elephant"

Finally, we gave the French 2.5 bil and then another 550-mil settlement after we walked away, over 3 billion gone and for what exactly?

Regards,