Sukarno stays in power - what would Asutralia do?

[Blue Weasel]

in 1970 there was no TNI-N lmao

ALRI (The Navy of the Republic of Indonesia)

 

[Blue Weasel]

A bit about Indonesian ORBAT

Btw as far as I'm concerned ALRI was going to purchase 2nd Sverdlov class cruiser had there was no coup in 1965. I couldn't find the source, but there's one surfacing on Twitter years ago.

A fleet of Yak-25 interceptor is being considered to escort the Tu-16KS, so maybe Yak-25 instead of MiG-25

https://twitter.com/x/status/1642098139653115905

View: https://x.com/yudisupri_454/status/1642098139653115905



Also by 1970, I expect the Indonesian navy to be equipped with proper attack jets (Su-17?) Because by 1962, the navy had already borrowed 6-8 MiG-17 from the air force, nucleus for the eventual navy strike squadron

 

[Dilandu]

A bit about Indonesian ORBAT

Btw as far as I'm concerned ALRI was going to purchase 2nd Sverdlov class cruiser had there was no coup in 1965. I couldn't find the source, but there's one surfacing on Twitter years ago.

A fleet of Yak-25 interceptor is being considered to escort the Tu-16KS, so maybe Yak-25 instead of MiG-25

Very interesting data! Thank you!

 

[kocovgoce]

1975

 

[kocovgoce]

English Electric Thunderbird​

 

[Dilandu]

English Electric Thunderbird

As far as I know, Australia never operated Thunderbirds, so the deal clearly fell through.

 

[Scott Kenny]

As far as I know, Australia never operated Thunderbirds, so the deal clearly fell through.

Deal would be more likely if Indonesia was a larger threat.

 

[Rule of cool]

The article says Australia was buying them because the British were retiring them, in the same year Australia ordered the Rapier. I doubt the article is correct.

 

[Dilandu]

The article says Australia was buying them because the British were retiring them, in the same year Australia ordered the Rapier. I doubt the article is correct.

Likely that retired Thunderbirds were proposed as one of possible SAM options, in case Australians would not like the Rapier.

Deal would be more likely if Indonesia was a larger threat.

Frankly, Bloodhound Mk-2 looks like much better choice. It have longer range, better performance, stay powered all flight (i.e. more useful against maneuvering targets) and most importantly, it's still in service and in production. So Australians would not face risk of being left without spare parts or technical support.

 

[Dilandu]

Speaking of air defense, IMHO, Australia would need about 3 Bloodhound Mk-2 squadrons (each of four sections, each section composed of 1 radar and 6-8 launchers)

* One to cover Darwin and Tindall area (2 sections per each - i.e. 2 radars and 12-16 launchers per site)
* One to cover Perth area, including HMAS Stirling naval base (2 sections) and Curtin and Learmonth AFBs (1 section per each)
* One to protect Townsville (2 sections) and Sherger AFBs (1 sections per each) and offer additional protection to Brisbane (1 section)

I.e. it would require 12 radars and 72-96 launchers (likely about 144-192 missiles)


If additional resources are available, it may be reasonable to provide area defense to Sydney and Canberra - at least to be able to avoid assignig interceptors here.

 

[ArtosStark]

So, I could definitely be wrong on this, but I understand that the beginning of Sukarno’s fall was the 1965 30 September Movement. If that had not happened, and Sukarno stays in power, the way things were going with the Fifth Force, it seemed like there was a possible confrontation coming between the Communists and the Military (indeed, some see the Sept 30 movement as either this or an Army attempt to preempt such a confrontation).

In this context, there could be either a full communist state in Indonesia by 1970 or a civil war with one side attempting to create one. Which may reduce the maximal navy and air forces available to the traditional military arms.

Additionally, didn’t Indonesia turn a bit towards China in the later years of Sukarno’s rule? If so, would the USSR have been willing to provide them with all the arms listed earlier in the thread?

 

[kocovgoce]

The article says Australia was buying them because the British were retiring them, in the same year Australia ordered the Rapier. I doubt the article is correct.

It's not true, I'm making them up to make a fiction out of the whole situation in the 70s.
They were made in Photoshop by me, for example, what Australia or Indonesia would do in the event of a crisis in that part of the world.

 

[Dilandu]

It's not true, I'm making them up to make a fiction out of the whole situation in the 70s.
They were made in Photoshop by me, for example, what Australia or Indonesia would do in the event of a crisis in that part of the world.

Erm... with all respect, but... FICTIONAL MATERIALS MUST BE LABELED AS FICTIONAL. Too often the alternate history works got mistaken as real, and becane a presistent myth.

 

[kocovgoce]

Erm... with all respect, but... FICTIONAL MATERIALS MUST BE LABELED AS FICTIONAL. Too often the alternate history works got mistaken as real, and becane a presistent myth.

Okay, I won't post posts like this anymore.

 

[Dilandu]

Okay, I won't post posts like this anymore.

Just clarify under picture that it's AH, and the problem would be solved.

 

[kocovgoce]

AH indicates an alternative history

 

[Dilandu]

AH indicates an alternative history

Exactly.

 

[uk 75]

An interesting thread.
I assume that the Vietnam War in this timeline looks as it does in ours.
The confrontation with Britain over Malaysia and Singapore did not go well for Indonesia in ours and ended in time for the UK to decide to withdraw.
Unless the UK is different in the new timeline I dont see this changing. The focus on NATO was unavoidable.
Malaysia, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand would have to deal with a Sukharno Indonesia after 1966 until some point in the 70s (after that ?).
The Soviet Union supplied Kashin class destroyers to India. A pair of these seem more likely than a cruiser, as they are less manpower intensive.
The usual conbinations of light fleet assets and submarines (Poti, Osa, W ) seems likely Nanuchkas too?
Tu22 were supplied to Iraq and Libya so Indonesia might also have received them in the 70s to replace or join Tu16s.
Mig23/27 and Su20s are also likely to arrive in small numbers to join Mig21 and Su7. Again, India and the Arab countries are a guide.
Missile forces by the early 70s would be Sam2, 3 and 6 as well as SCUD B and FROG7.

Australia is likely to keep the F4Es that stood in for its F111s while they were being fixed. The Phantom might also replace the Mirage in the late 60s as it did in Israel. F111 numbers depend on what the US does but it will remain Australias key strike weapon.

HAWK rather than Bloodhound or Thunderbird seems likely in the late 60s as Israel Iran and NATO get I Hawk.

Melbourne A4s will get Maverick and Walleyes. Transfer of either Hermes or an Essex class as CTOL carriers with ex USN F8 and A4 might be on the cards if the Indonesian Navy gets Krestas or more than two Kashins. Harpoon is not yet available but an SSM mod to the widely used IKARA would make more sense than Exocet/Otomat which would hard to fit on RAN ships.

Malaysia and Singapore get Lightnings and Bloodhound 2 as tge UK hands over.
Vosper frigates and Oberons too.

 

[Dilandu]

The Soviet Union supplied Kashin class destroyers to India. A pair of these seem more likely than a cruiser, as they are less manpower intensive.

Well, the cruiser - the Irian - was supplied OTL in 1960s.

 

[Felocie]

Transfer of either Hermes or an Essex class as CTOL carriers with ex USN F8 and A4 might be on the cards

What about a CVV derived design? This is purely down to either domestic capacity or US export capacity but the Essex class was really getting on (I believe this is gone over in the replacement documents although it’s been a while since I read them). Now Australia had the capacity to new build a carrier in an estimated 12 years with US parts imports (which was seen as unacceptably long) but given the threat on our doorstep could production have been ramped up? Would America have the production capacity to build the ship for export?

 

[Dilandu]

What about a CVV derived design?

The CVV concept, if I recall correctly, was considered not sucsessfull, because while losing about a 1/3 of "John F. Kennedy" supercarrier capabilities, it costs only about 100 millions less. Not enough economy to justify.

Would America have the production capacity to build the ship for export?

Certainly, the question is mainly - would the industry be interested?