Israel strikes on Iran

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yahya

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This thread is related to the alleged Israeli strike preparations against Iran of mid-October 2024 as indicated by the leaked documents published on the web at:

t.me

Middle East Spectator – MES

— ❗️// EXCLUSIVE: An informed source within the U.S. intelligence community has shared with us an extremely sensitive 'top secret' U.S. intelligence document from the NGIA, dated October 15-16, detailing Israeli preparations for an extensive strike inside Iran According to the report, the U.S...
t.me t.me

Quotation:

According to the report, the U.S. has observed the Israeli Air Force handling ALBMs (air-launched ballistic missiles) like 'Golden Horizon' (at least 16) and 'ROCKS' (at least 40) at Hatserim airbase since October 8. If all of these are used, it would be a major attack.

From October 15 to October 16 the Israeli Air Force also handled several ASMs (air-to-surface missiles) at Ramot David and Ramon airbases, indicating an imminent attack.

Additionally, the Israeli Air Force carried out an LFE exercise on October 15 to practice air-to-air refueling and combat search and rescue operations with a large number of aircraft, including at least three KC-707 tankers, one G-550 Gulfstream AWACs aircraft, and possibly fighter jets.

This classified report originates from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, part of the U.S. Department of Defense.
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yahya said:
This thread is related to the alleged Israeli strike preparations against Iran of mid-October 2024 as indicated by the leaked documents published on the web at:

t.me

Middle East Spectator – MES

— ❗️// EXCLUSIVE: An informed source within the U.S. intelligence community has shared with us an extremely sensitive 'top secret' U.S. intelligence document from the NGIA, dated October 15-16, detailing Israeli preparations for an extensive strike inside Iran According to the report, the U.S...
t.me t.me

Quotation:
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I understand this question as a kind of poll that will soon become a political debate.

In my opinion, what has been published are satellite photos of an Israeli Air Force training exercise with only three air refueling aircraft and one electronic warfare aircraft. Some experts indicate the presence of an unknown type of air-to-surface missile. Everything seems to indicate that they are preparing for a limited attack, but I don't think so, in my opinion this leak of information is a mask to hide Israel's true strategic intentions.

I would venture to say that the most effective strategy could be non-nuclear attacks of various types carried out in a very precise chronological sequence:

-Electronic warfare with some unexpected innovation... perhaps some kind of advanced EMP of non-nuclear origin to disable radars and communications and perhaps an attack on the country's electrical system.

Precision kinetic attacks on command and control bunkers with an advanced version of the Durandal bombs, possibly locally made, to send a political message.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz, without destroying oil infrastructure, would defuse environmental protests and hurt the Chinese economy now that interest rates are falling.
 
The anti-bunker weapons did not defeat the Taliban and only cause damage that can be repaired over time. What Israel needs is a permanent solution and in my opinion this can only be achieved with a peace like the one achieved with the Egyptians or with a technological superiority capable of destroying any present or future electronic system of its adversary... Goldeneye???

Perhaps a combination of the two with as few civilian casualties as possible would be the most acceptable solution for Western interests.
 
For the record: the previous strike last April. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran

My understanding is that Israel flattened some S-300s protecting nuclear facilities, to send a message ?

Kinda "your air-defenses are shit and won't protect your nuclear facilities from determined air attacks. We can bunker-buster whatever target we want inside YOUR airspace."

Due to american pressure however Israel won't strike nuclear facilities, nor the main oil terminal at Karj ?
 
There are reports on the S-400 transfers to Iran to boost the AD.

The ROCKS apparently has the anti-radiation capability in addition to the INS/GPS with EO seeker guidance. That would explain how the S-300 batteries were attacked in April 2024.

It seems that wiki picked up the thread, too:

Israeli retaliation leak - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

However, still nothing available on the Golden Horizon thing.
 
Justo Miranda said:
Closing the Strait of Hormuz, without destroying oil infrastructure, would defuse environmental protests and hurt the Chinese economy now that interest rates are falling.
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Thank you for caring so much about Russian well-being) Closing the Strait of Hormuz would make gas and oil prices skyrocket. Russia - as the only major supplier not affected - would be able to dictate conditions to all OPEC)
 
Justo Miranda said:
The anti-bunker weapons did not defeat the Taliban and only cause damage that can be repaired over time. What Israel needs is a permanent solution and in my opinion this can only be achieved with a peace like the one achieved with the Egyptians or with a technological superiority capable of destroying any present or future electronic system of its adversary... Goldeneye???
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Well, removing the religious component out of Iranian government would most likely left Republican government and military much less inclined to clash with Israel (especially considering that they have major interests in Asia, clashing with Turkey here).
 
Dilandu said:
Well, removing the religious component out of Iranian government would most likely left Republican government and military much less inclined to clash with Israel (especially considering that they have major interests in Asia, clashing with Turkey here).
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In my opinion, attacking religious leaders is always a mistake, it only succeeds in angering the population, increasing repression and weakening moderate democratic options.
 
Dilandu said:
Thank you for caring so much about Russian well-being) Closing the Strait of Hormuz would make gas and oil prices skyrocket. Russia - as the only major supplier not affected - would be able to dictate conditions to all OPEC)
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In my opinion, the closure of the strait would benefit Russia, provided that it could continue to launder its oil in India.
 
The problem is war has no rules, no one follows the Geneva Convention and you have to fight to win mo matter what unfortunately, that is reality.
 
Remember however that the ultimate winners can always organize the Nuremberg ver. 2.0 to the other side, which did not follow the conventions on warfare conduct.
 
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totoro said:
Where are these maps from? Can you provide the link to their publisher? I don't see them anywhere in the TWZ article you quoted.
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iran.liveuamap.com

Iran news on live map in English - Conflict in the Gulf- iran.liveuamap.com

Explore Iran local news alerts & today's headlines geolocated on live map on website or application. Focus on Iran protests, politics, military news and security alerts
iran.liveuamap.com iran.liveuamap.com
iran.liveuamap.com

Fires in western region of Tehran Tehran - Iran news on live map in English - Conflict in the Gulf- iran.liveuamap.com

Fires in western region of Tehran. Explore Iran local news alerts & today's headlines geolocated on live map on website or application. Focus on Iran protests, politics, military news and security alerts
iran.liveuamap.com iran.liveuamap.com
 
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They bowed to US pressure and struck neither the nuclear facilities nor the oil terminal at Kharj. Instead, they tried demolishing air defenses and the drone industry.
 
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Archibald said:
They bowed to US pressure and struck neither the nuclear facilities nor the oil terminal at Kharj. Instead, they tried demolishing air defenses and the drone industry.
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A missile production facility was also targeted apparently. From livemap:
iran.liveuamap.com

Iran news on live map in English - Conflict in the Gulf- iran.liveuamap.com

Explore Iran local news alerts & today's headlines geolocated on live map on website or application. Focus on Iran protests, politics, military news and security alerts
iran.liveuamap.com iran.liveuamap.com
Alleged targets of Israeli strikes in Iran included: Qadiri Barracks in Hasan Khan Castle, Missile Manufacturing and Preparation Center, Falaq Barracks in Bideghan, Sepah Air Force Logistics Center, Imam Ali Barracks in Bideghan
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NYT: Israeli airstrikes targeted the S-300 air defense system at Imam Khomeini Airport and three Revolutionary Guard missile bases in Tehran Province, according to two Iranian officials. A second drone wave struck the Parchin military base, damaging the site
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The Sani Khani facility in Yaftabad, Tehran, which belongs to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Air Force and specializes in manufacturing missiles, was attacked
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On the side of Shahriar Three Roads, there is a barracks, this smoke and the sound of bombs from Shahriare Three Roads Barracks
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The raids on Tehran a short while ago targeted the Fatah camp
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DWG said:
If you want to go down that road for explanations (and I don't particularly recommend it) you can't couch it in solely US political terms, there's also the internal pressure inside Netanyahu's government from the far right to push things as far as possible, along with pressures to prolong the conflict for as long as possible to stall the corruption investigation into Netanyahu himself.

I'm actually surprised they didn't go after the nuclear facilities in at least a token manner - though there still might be stuff we haven't heard of yet, but moving from demonstration strikes in the boobies last time to picking off air defence sites in downtown Tehran is a rather nicely judged escalation.

And of course we're only hearing about the kinetic element of the strike, it's entirely possible there was also an electronic attack or pure cyberwarfare element that won't catch the headlines.
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I agree with his view, but I believe that Israel cannot miss this opportunity to end the nuclear threat of its enemy. If hostage-taking was their Pearl Harbor, there will also be their Hiroshima, I hope it won't happen in my lifetime, but the survival of a people depends on it. I don't like it but that's what the story seems to indicate.
 
Dilandu said:
Let's wait for satellite photos before making any conclusions. There probably would be a lot of them soon.
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Talking about it there has been one recent development which is stunning but rarely discussed.

We have seen high resolution "spysat" pictures of Israel military facilities.

Something truly unthinkable only a decade ago. Let mee explain this further.

Since 1995 the oldest and out of service NRO spysat's imagery have been declassified.
CORONA (1960-1972) first. Then GAMBIT (1963-1984) and HEXAGON (1971-1984). Also spy planes - U-2, A-12, SR-71...

Well, even on those oldies, Israel requested some pictures of their territory to remain classified. Or, worst case : blurred. Downwashed.

Which says something. Ok, admittedly the Dimona nuclear plant didn't moved since 60 years ago, nor the desert or mountains around it. Still, a 60 years old CORONA picture is not exactly... fresh, say if you are Iran planning an air strike against the place.

Alas for Israel, over the last decade newcomers in the spysat game, private like Maxar - can't be constrained the same way.

It is one thing to have high-res pictures of Ukraine or Russia. But having high-res pictures of Israel military facilities ? that's something else entirely.
After October 1 strikes it blew my mind to see people casually poring over pictures of Refidim air base and identifying iranian missiles impacts.
Only ten years ago only the NRO could have done that, with KH-12 pictures. The whole thing deeply classified, with Israel blessing - for obvious reasons. It stayed that way from, what ? 1967-2012, almost 45 years ?

A missile production facility was also targeted apparently.
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Rockets =/= nuclear. Iran has tons of non-nuclear missiles, as rained on Israel twice this year. True nuclear matters would be either ICBMs or Natanz and other nuclear processing areas. You bet the Americans vetoed strikes on that. As they did for oil. Israel was allowed to demolish air defenses plus rockets and drone production.
 
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Archibald said:
They bowed to US pressure and struck neither the nuclear facilities nor the oil terminal at Kharj. Instead, they tried demolishing air defenses and the drone industry.
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Hitting the nuke infrastructure is existential threat.

Hitting Kharj is hitting Iran's cash flow so severely they'd have nothing left to loose.
 
Sure, but both objectives (nuclear and oil) can led to worlwide chaos.

-A regional nuclear exchange would play havoc with the world stability at many different levels.

-As for devastating iranian oil facilities, their answer would be immediate: Houthis strikes, cubed or ten-fold. The straits of Hormuz are pretty easy to close to both international trade and military ships. 1973 and 1979 shit shows are still in everybody minds. The Houthis alone have been a colossal PITA in the straits of Hormuz, now imagine Iran going all out in asymmetrical warfare: suicide boats, drones, ballistic and cruise missiles.
 
An older article on the difficulty of de-fanging the snake
www.nextbigfuture.com

Busting Irans Nuclear Facility at Furdow | NextBigFuture.com

Boeing's 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), an ultra-large bunker buster for use on underground targets, with Iran routinely mentioned as its
www.nextbigfuture.com www.nextbigfuture.com

Some scuttlebutt about Iran building a border wall ( from moderndiplomacy.eu...if that is a real site.
 
Archibald said:
Sure, but both objectives (nuclear and oil) can led to worlwide chaos.

-A regional nuclear exchange would play havoc with the world stability at many different levels.

-As for devastating iranian oil facilities, their answer would be immediate: Houthis strikes, cubed or ten-fold. The straits of Hormuz are pretty easy to close to both international trade and military ships. 1973 and 1979 shit shows are still in everybody minds. The Houthis alone have been a colossal PITA in the straits of Hormuz, now imagine Iran going all out in asymmetrical warfare: suicide boats, drones, ballistic and cruise missiles.
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In my view, it is not a matter of speculating on whether Israel will attack its enemy's nuclear industry, but when. If the Chinese want their oil, let them do something now, if the West wants to live without the chaos of 1973, send a powerful fleet to the strait and start controlling shipping instead of the pathetic action against the Houthis. If the Americans do not want an escalation of tension in the area, they should gain the respect of its inhabitants, but that will be difficult after Kabul.

Why wait for the Iranians to close the strait with asymmetric tactics?

Better to do it now in a controlled way and use it as a basis for negotiation to soften the regime's aggressiveness. Many lives and a lot of money would be saved.
 
Archibald said:
It is one thing to have high-res pictures of Ukraine or Russia. But having high-res pictures of Israel military facilities ? that's something else entirely.
After October 1 strikes it blew my mind to see people casually poring over pictures of Refidim air base and identifying iranian missiles impacts.
Only ten years ago only the NRO could have done that, with KH-12 pictures. The whole thing deeply classified, with Israel blessing - for obvious reasons. It stayed that way from, what ? 1967-2012, almost 45 years ?
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Technology marched on, and laws of physics remained the same. What was available only to ultra-high-tech spy satellites of Cold War Era now is a mundane task for hundreds of purely civilian sats.
 
Seems Israel somehow managed to refuel their F35 during their attack on Iran. There are multiple ways they could have done it. They could have developed an innovative way of refueling. Or they were able to operate their tankers above Syria and/or Iraq. Maybe the Saudi’s gave the Israeli’s permission to operate their tankers in their airspace.

Whatever it is, the Israeli’s have solved an intriguing problem.
 
Q-nimbus said:
Seems Israel somehow managed to refuel their F35 during their attack on Iran. There are multiple ways they could have done it. They could have developed an innovative way of refueling. Or they were able to operate their tankers above Syria and/or Iraq. Maybe the Saudi’s gave the Israeli’s permission to operate their tankers in their airspace.

Whatever it is, the Israeli’s have solved an intriguing problem.
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In my view, Israel cannot depend on the goodwill of its neighbours to allow it to refuel in their airspace. Such facilities can be abolished at any time due to a change in policy in the region. I suppose that when the time comes they will go over any obstacle as they have already done in Gaza and Lebanon. If their enemies do not respect borders, neither do they.
 
Q-nimbus said:
Seems Israel somehow managed to refuel their F35 during their attack on Iran. There are multiple ways they could have done it. They could have developed an innovative way of refueling. Or they were able to operate their tankers above Syria and/or Iraq. Maybe the Saudi’s gave the Israeli’s permission to operate their tankers in their airspace.

Whatever it is, the Israeli’s have solved an intriguing problem.
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Israel modified their F-35s to extend their range to Iran without refueling.
 
Just refuel over Afghanistan. Not like they could stop you. And if you were clever, they might not notice the tanker at all.
 
quellish said:
Israel modified their F-35s to extend their range to Iran without refueling.
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That seems quite improbable. And frankly, would Israel even need it?

The combat radius of F-35A (and presumably F-35I also) is stated to be about 1200 km on internal fuel. And it's about 1500 km from Haifa to Tehran. With drop tanks on external hardpoints and refueling after takeoff, they should have pretty enough range to come into Iran through Iraq and Syria, release standoff ordnance and return back.
 
quellish said:
IAI and Elbit developed 600 gal external drop tanks and they were working on small CFTs. The drop tanks became operational in 2023.
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So basically they could add about 1200 gallons of external fuel (if I recall correctly, only two F-35's hardpoints have fuel pipes) to the 2700 gallons of internal supply. I.e. about 30% increase. Add the post-takeoff and possible return refueling, and they would have more than enough range to reach targets in western parts Iran and return back.
 
iran.liveuamap.com

Three Israeli sources tell @BarakRavid 12 planetary mixers used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles were attacked in Iran, as well as four S-300 air defense batteries in strategic locations that protected Tehran and nuclear and en

Three Israeli sources tell @BarakRavid 12 planetary mixers used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles were attacked in Iran, as well as four S-300 air defense batteries in strategic locations that protected Tehran and nuclear and energy facilities. A factory for drone...
iran.liveuamap.com iran.liveuamap.com
Three Israeli sources tell @BarakRavid 12 planetary mixers used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles were attacked in Iran, as well as four S-300 air defense batteries in strategic locations that protected Tehran and nuclear and energy facilities. A factory for drone production was also hit and a "symbolic" attack was carried out on a facility in Parchin where in the past activity for research and development of nuclear weapons was carried out
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quellish said:
I’m sure North Korea will announce it is providing Iran with humanitarian aid in the form of 12 new planetary mixers “for bread and stuff like that”.
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Doubt that. Kim aren't exactly the kind of politician who would do something like that without clear benefits for North Korea.
 
Dilandu said:
That seems quite improbable. And frankly, would Israel even need it?

The combat radius of F-35A (and presumably F-35I also) is stated to be about 1200 km on internal fuel. And it's about 1500 km from Haifa to Tehran. With drop tanks on external hardpoints and refueling after takeoff, they should have pretty enough range to come into Iran through Iraq and Syria, release standoff ordnance and return back.
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And interestingly enough, Iraq officially closed its airspace about the same time as Iran did...





Justo Miranda said:
In my opinion, attacking religious leaders is always a mistake, it only succeeds in angering the population, increasing repression and weakening moderate democratic options.
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Not in this case. The Ayatollahs aren't as popular as they used to be. Plus, it seems that they're following the WW2 German method of different factions competing for favor to maintain control of the military. Take out enough of the corresponding faction leadership and you can enact great changes in which cliques will be in power.
 

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