What would a modern naval battle be like?

[sferrin]

Thought this was interesting but no idea how much, if any, it resembles reality.

 

[Dilandu]

They wouldn't declare anything like that, they will be a large-scale high-intensity war with the People's Republic of China, mining the entrance to ports would be a normal course of action.

"Normal" for whom?

De jure, the US does not recognise Taiwan as an independent country. De facto, however they do, as do most Western nations, and if the PRC attempts to invade Taiwan, they will react accordingly. I don't know if you've noticed this, but the US has been selling weapons to Taiwan since 1949, they clearly recognise it as a separate government and have supported it's independence ever since the end of the Chinese Civil War.

Yes, and it make the whole situation even more problematic for USA, because de jure and de facto, they are supplying weapons to separatists movement that they themselves did not recognize. Which essentially means, that US have no firm legal standing there, and any US military actions could only be more or less illegal.

You apparently did not realize, that by declaring Crimea independence (and subsequent integration into Russia) illegal, USA messed up their own argumentation for Taiwan? Because if in Crimea case population desire to secede is not legitimate, then why Taiwanese case must be different?

They fill in the gaps with industrial policy, that is if they have not already achieved that prior to the war breaking out, given that most Western countries are beginning to move in that direction.

Sigh. You realize, that it would took years, maybe decades for Western industry to merely recover, far less to expand? How would you propose for industry to "fill the gap", if the cheapest and major sources of materials and equipment for that would be unavailable? You can't have it both; either your "blockade of China" would be mere formality (and you would have access to resources and materials to expand domestic industry), or you would not be able to expand industry at all, because it would just be far too expensive, and no one would be willing to put his money in it.

Given how China has treated nearly every country that it shares a border with, I doubt that. None of these countries are going to bend over backwards to accommodate China when it has been fighting border skirmishes or building bases atop reefs in their territorial waters.

And why do you assume anyone would be willing to do anything for USA, considering how USA treated every country it did not share borders with? Really, you seriously overestimate the willingness of Europe to make economical suicide for the sake of Uncle Sam pockets. Even the existing sanctions against Russia already harmed European economy - but at least Europe is legitimately afraid for their own safety here. Why would Europeans dive into even deeper problems by supporting USA against China? China is no threat for Europe. Those are American problems; let Americans solve them (or die trying; Europe would benefit either way).

 

[Dilandu]

India is most certainly not going to support China like they have with Russia. India has their own very personal beef with China and China is currently allied to their eternal enemy in Pakistan.

They would not, but they wouldn't side with USA against China also. For India, Taiwanese question is simply not important enough.

 

[Michel Van]

Now with hype of Supersonic weapon

There also the slow and silent Approach
In March 2001, Enterprise took part in the exercise JTFEX 01-2 in the Caribbean Sea.
U24, a Type 206 class diesel-electric submarine from the German Navy,
managed to "sink" the Enterprise by firing flares and taking a photograph through its periscope.

Now goes for something smaller like a Drone and you get effective weapon:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VipzmXeTiow&pp=ygUXdWtyYWluZSBkcm9uZSBzaW5rIHNoaXA%3D

 

[DWG]

Thought this was interesting but no idea how much, if any, it resembles reality.

Enough that NCIS reportedly asked his ISP for the owner's web activity recently! I've been watching the channel for a few weeks, some of their stuff is more realistic than others, while some is more experimental, trying to see what capabilities new hardware opens up.

This one is more of a naval battle, with the US and Philippines trying to oppose a Chinese force landing on Scarborough Shoal.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6_-slkKpl4&t

 

[Dilandu]

Now goes for something smaller like a Drone and you get effective weapon:

Underwater drones have some problems; they are quite limited in terms of communications. And military is still reluctant to let go of the "man-in-the-loop" concept and allow machine to chose targets and engage them autonomously.

 

[A_Random_Guy]

Now with hype of Supersonic weapon

There also the slow and silent Approach
In March 2001, Enterprise took part in the exercise JTFEX 01-2 in the Caribbean Sea.
U24, a Type 206 class diesel-electric submarine from the German Navy,
managed to "sink" the Enterprise by firing flares and taking a photograph through its periscope.

Now goes for something smaller like a Drone and you get effective weapon:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VipzmXeTiow&pp=ygUXdWtyYWluZSBkcm9uZSBzaW5rIHNoaXA%3D

For all the hype they get, conventional submarines have some very fundamental limitations.

Their mobility is quite limited without snorkeling, which is very dangerous because snorkels are detectable on radar, even with AIP meaning that in open waters their utility as active hunter-killers is limited.

That being said they are cheaper than nuclear boats and perform tasks well in littorals and confined waters acting kind of like a highly mobile mine/minefield. This isn't to say you can't use a conventional submarine in an offensive manner, it's just to say that their vaunted effectiveness severely drops off when used as such.

Underwater drones have some problems; they are quite limited in terms of communications. And military is still reluctant to let go of the "man-in-the-loop" concept and allow machine to chose targets and engage them autonomously.

I would point out that systems like CAPTOR exist so its not entirely without precedent. These weapons need to be viewed more as extensions of minefields rather than truly offensive weapons except in some very niche cases.

Even Ukraine's USVs which have far fewer issues with communications are mostly used to attack ships at anchor or traveling near choke points due to the issues with their slow speed and thus consequent large area of uncertainty, meaning their operations in more open waters are difficult to say the least. They're like the Iranian Boghammer threat. They aren't going to seriously upset blue-water operations anytime soon.

 

[Michel Van]

Underwater drones have some problems; they are quite limited in terms of communications. And military is still reluctant to let go of the "man-in-the-loop" concept and allow machine to chose targets and engage them autonomously.

yes that is true. Communication is limited and to go full AI systems, open all kinds of problems you not want.

Their mobility is quite limited without snorkeling, which is very dangerous because snorkels are detectable on radar, even with AIP meaning that in open waters their utility as active hunter-killers is limited.

oh that the Germans work on that snorkeling problem already in WW2.
i guess nowadays that they have some stealth technology for the snorkel

 

[A_Random_Guy]

oh that the Germans work on that snorkeling problem already in WW2.
i guess nowadays that they have some stealth technology for the snorkel

We do, but stealth doesn't make a thing invisible and at the same time periscope detection radars have gotten quite good.

The German efforts to reduce snorkel RCS were nowhere near as effective as they thought they were.

 

[Scott Kenny]

With all respect, Germany did not control THAT big share of world total industrial production as China now.

I rather doubt that USA would dare to declare something like that.

You're talking about the same country that mined Nicaragua's ports in the 1980s.

And put enough mines into Haiphong harbor that you could walk across the bottom without stepping in the mud.

No it isn't. USA did not recognize Taiwan independence.

Taiwan has never claimed independence from the mainland. (That's actually one of the reasons for the US to STOP supporting them)

Taiwan says that they are the legitimate government of the Republic of China, and that the Maoist PRC is a bunch of Japanese collaborators.

All the US has to do is reverse Nixon's decision from 1973 about which one of the two (Taiwan versus Beijing) the US recognizes as the legitimate government of China.

 

[Dilandu]

All the US has to do is reverse Nixon's decision from 1973 about which one of the two (Taiwan versus Beijing) the US recognizes as the legitimate government of China.

You realize, that it would be plain legal absurd, and even Western nations would not recognize it as legal? Otherwise, say, Russia could just reverse the decision about recognizing the Zelensky government and declare Yanukovich to be undisputable government-in-exile of Ukraine? Seriously, peoples, when would you realize that America could not just screw the rules without eventually being screwed itself?

 

[Scott Kenny]

You realize, that it would be plain legal absurd, and even Western nations would not recognize it as legal?

There are some levels of rules-screwing you can get away with. Depends on how much hardball you want to play.

For example. The PRC refuses to honor any debts from before 1947, despite how every other country still honors the debts of previous governments and how the entire international economic system expects that. Let's say China decides to attempt economic warfare by calling all US debt that they own (it's a number measured in the mid billions, IIRC). Previous governments of China owe the US a pretty similar amount of money once you count interest. So the US says that they're paying the US debt owned by China by forgiving all the Chinese debt that the US owns. You can also bet that all the other countries would do something similar, depending on how much debts there were to be balanced out.

For another example: PRC is a signatory to the UNCLOS, the UN Convention of the Laws of the Sea. They have ignored all rulings from the UNCLOS court, to the extent of not even sending someone to represent their side to the court. So ignoring all the PRC claims, even the standard 200nmi EEZ, is an available option.

Otherwise, say, Russia could just reverse the decision about recognizing the Zelensky government and declare Yanukovich to be undisputable government-in-exile of Ukraine? Seriously, peoples, when would you realize that America could not just screw the rules without eventually being screwed itself?

I thought that's what Russia was doing? Recognizing the Yakunovich government, I mean.

It's just that nobody else is recognizing the Yakunovich government as legitimate.

==================

But we're wandering well away from the general question of "what would a modern naval battle look like".

In the general terms, we're probably looking at coordinated attacks on major fleet units, like one or more carrier groups, with the intention to at least mission-kill them and force them into shipyard for repairs lasting years. These would then be followed up by asymmetrical attacks (including submarines here) trying to create local superiority temporarily.

 

[Dilandu]

thought that's what Russia was doing? Recognizing the Yakunovich government, I mean.

Erm, no. We recognize Zelensky government. Yet.