The economy was still going to bite him in the butt, and the stagflation has little to do with oil prices.
The economy wasn't as bad as people like to say.. the interest rates were horrible to handle the inflation from Nixon going on a printing spree (and that getting jacked with a couple of oil shocks made it much worse): Real GDP, growth after inflation is taken out, was about the same as Reagan. Carter' unadjusted GDP was around 10% or better per year, which adjusted to roughly 3% (inflation was 13.5% in 80).

I spent the last of my teens and a most of my 20's living with inflation hovering around 4-5% and unemployment at over 5% with Reagan averaging an adjusted GDP of 3.5%.

No Iran going nuts Americans are not under enough stress to roll the dice on "voodoo economics" (Bush coined that phrase in the primary); Carter should win pretty easily without Iran going loony tunes.
 
An interesting book on how it all fell apart in Iran is 'Mission to Tehran' by Robert Huyser.
 

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