What if Germany opted to import 4th gen fighters in 1979 or early 80s?

[Yankee_Aviator]

I

Italy did it,

Italy actually only leased 24 from the RAF during the late 80s when the Balkans started heating up and they realized the F-104 was not an adequate interceptor to protect the east coast of Italy should anything from Serbia decide to venture across the adriatic sea.

 

[Yankee_Aviator]

The F16 in the 70s was seen as a lightweight fighter with two Sidewinders on the wings.

Not necessarily, the LWF was cemented as a multirole even before the F-16A went into production. In April 1974 James R. Schlesinger, then Secretary of Defense, announced that the LWF program was being redirected into a multirole fighter program and renamed ACF (Air Combat Fighter). So the production model F-16 was to be a light multirole fighter from the beginning. Considering a consortium of former F-104 operators were gearing up to build the F-16 under license in Europe as they had Lockheed's dart, the Viper would have made a good direct replacement for the 104, while the EF possibly could have maintained German support as an eventual Phantom successor in the Air Superiority/Interceptor role, while the Viper inherits both the Phantom and 104's strike mission.

 

[helmutkohl]

Have that one too. A trip to Waldenbooks, in the mall in the 80s, almost always yielded results.

I was fortunate to have been to the US in the 80s and 90s where one could simply chill for hours at Waldenbooks, Borders, and Barnes and nobles. killing time reading all these military books while the others went shopping.
and now they are all gone

here in Japan, fortunately book stores and music stores still survive and I still read military books there.. although I think inevitably, they will also disappear here too.

 

[Yankee_Aviator]

Some candidates

I would add to this the possibility of a further upgraded F-4F ICE, possibly incorporating the PW1120 turbofans of the IAI super Phantom along with the APG-65, the ICE upgrade could potentially come earlier if we're assuming Germany's imperative for buying an existing 4th generation fighter is due to rising tensions in the late cold war. Overall though, I think the Tornado ADV would be the most likely candidate to be selected here, even if it's not the most suitable, it's an aircraft that Germany is already invested in and would have commonality with the Tornado IDS fleet. Despite their close relationship with France, the Tornado would probably be favored over the Mirage as it's a plane the Germans are already invested in. Personally I think the best option would have been a split deal with the US and France. Dornier, due to their relationship with Northrop, would build the FA-18 under license, MTU who has a close relationship with General Electric builds the F404 under license (GE and MTU's relationship and the fact that the Hornet was powered by GE engines from the beginning plays into its appeal to Germany). Germany could leverage their close relations with France to ask for the integration of the Exocet on the Hornet, in order to equip the Marineflieger. Whether that would actually work out is hard to say, the French may be spiteful and not agree to sell the missile to Germany, in that case the AGM-84 may be a suitable alternative. But again, realistically, the Tornado would be the most likely to be selected.

 

[Yankee_Aviator]

The Luftwaffe really liked its F4s and they were seriously upgraded over the years

This is why I think an F-4F ICE with PW1120s should be considered here, it's possible that the Germans would have elected to give the F-4s a more comprehensive upgrade, incorporating turbofan engines of lower weight and increased thrust in relation to the J79, the APG-65 radar (same radar in the Hornet) along with turbofan engines and access to AMRAAMs would effectively turn the Phantom into a 4th generation fighter. The increased thrust would make it stronger than it already was in the 2-circle fight and the PD radar and AMRAAMs would give it bvr capabilities at least on par with the Hornet. The real question is would the Germans pursue/ the US approve such an upgrade earlier on, the ICE came out in the 90s, however in a scenario assuming increased tensions with the Warsaw pact, it's more likely the US would have approved of West German Super Phantoms, and approved of them earlier on.

 

[Lascaris]

The Luftwaffe really liked its F4s and they were seriously upgraded over the years

This is why I think an F-4F ICE with PW1120s should be considered here, it's possible that the Germans would have elected to give the F-4s a more comprehensive upgrade, incorporating turbofan engines of lower weight and increased thrust in relation to the J79, the APG-65 radar (same radar in the Hornet) along with turbofan engines and access to AMRAAMs would effectively turn the Phantom into a 4th generation fighter. The increased thrust would make it stronger than it already was in the 2-circle fight and the PD radar and AMRAAMs would give it bvr capabilities at least on par with the Hornet. The real question is would the Germans pursue/ the US approve such an upgrade earlier on, the ICE came out in the 90s, however in a scenario assuming increased tensions with the Warsaw pact, it's more likely the US would have approved of West German Super Phantoms, and approved of them earlier on.

And how much was the P1120 unit cost? At which point upgrading the Phantom starts costing as much as newly built aircraft?

 

[CV12Hornet]

And how much was the P1120 unit cost? At which point upgrading the Phantom starts costing as much as newly built aircraft?

The only reference I've seen to the cost of the re-engined Super Phantom is a mention on AirVectors of the upgrade being a "significant fraction" the cost of a new aircraft. Which new aircraft and what significant fraction is not stated.

 

[Yankee_Aviator]

Assuming that in this timeline Germany (either hte Luftwaffe and/or Marineflieger) went ahead with a 4th gen aircraft how would this affect
- The Typhoon project?

The most likely scenario I can see here would be a hypothetical escalation of tensions between NATO and WP in the late Cold War prompting Germany to look for something more capable than the F-4F to serve as an interim measure while the Eurofighter is under development. Whichever aircraft gets selected depends largely on Germany's relationship with the country of origin of any given aircraft at the time, and it depends upon the Tornado ADV being deemed inadequate for the defense of German airspace against Soviet fighters, as the Tornado ADV would most likely be the first option.

 

[Yankee_Aviator]

And how much was the P1120 unit cost?

No idea.

At which point upgrading the Phantom starts costing as much as newly built aircraft?

The real question is whether or not Germany would have elected to upgrade the Phantom or buy a whole new fleet of aircraft for which they would need to set up a logistical supply chain. Remember, the cost of a new aircraft is not limited to unit cost, there's pilot training, specialized ground equipment, training for ground personnel and mechanics, not to mention setting up a supply chain to ensure that spare parts will be delivered to where they are needed. With these things in mind, the cost of buying new engines and paying for the necessary modifications to the engine bays to accommodate the new engines, along with putting a new radar in the Phantom may have been a more palatable option for Germany. The only way I really see a 4th gen fighter buy in Germany is if there was a significant increase in tensions in the late cold war. In such a scenario they likely would commit to the Eurofighter and any 4th gen procurement would be an interim solution while the EF is under development. So again, the question is, would an F-4 with an FA-18 radar and turbofan engines be competitive against 4th generation fighters? those are the big technological leaps that separate 3rd and 4th generation fighters; afterburning turbofans and the advent of pulse doppler radars, that and generally a greater emphasis on maneuverability.

 

[CV12Hornet]

Avionics-wise, yes, by all accounts the upgrade packages brought the Phantom up to early 4th-gen standards.

As far as kinematic performance, these two articles claim a thrust-to-weight above 1, vastly enhanced maneuverability, and outright supercruise. Obviously, take all of this with a grain of salt due to the source credibility, or lack thereof in the case of the National Interest. That said, the math on the thrust to weight checks out and the National Interest article at least has Youtube links to the Israelis showing off the prototype at the 1987 Paris Air Show. So even if it doesn't have supercruise I feel confident in stating the Super Phantom would've been able to keep up with early 4th-gen fighters kinematically.

As far as cost, both articles give a $12 million figure for the upgrade package. According to this source, as of 1987 the USAF and USN were paying the following for new fighters:

F-14: $18.6 million*
F-15: $42 million
F-16: $16.2 million
F/A-18: $31.7 million

So the "significant fraction" mentioned on the AirVectors article is probably referring to the F-16.

*I have no idea how the Navy got that price for that batch of F-14s. They paid $40.7 million per plane back in FY'84 and $68.2 million in FY'88.

 

[Antonio]

In summary, Germany, went from 3rd Gen to 4.5th Gen because they loved their Phantoms so much or was it because they joined Eurofighter program thus cancelling their own TKF 90 (4th Gen) program thus needing to update the Phantoms to fill the gap until the Typhoon could be available?

 

[Archibald]

The Luftwaffe really liked its F4s and they were seriously upgraded over the years

This is why I think an F-4F ICE with PW1120s should be considered here, it's possible that the Germans would have elected to give the F-4s a more comprehensive upgrade, incorporating turbofan engines of lower weight and increased thrust in relation to the J79, the APG-65 radar (same radar in the Hornet) along with turbofan engines and access to AMRAAMs would effectively turn the Phantom into a 4th generation fighter. The increased thrust would make it stronger than it already was in the 2-circle fight and the PD radar and AMRAAMs would give it bvr capabilities at least on par with the Hornet. The real question is would the Germans pursue/ the US approve such an upgrade earlier on, the ICE came out in the 90s, however in a scenario assuming increased tensions with the Warsaw pact, it's more likely the US would have approved of West German Super Phantoms, and approved of them earlier on.

And how much was the P1120 unit cost? At which point upgrading the Phantom starts costing as much as newly built aircraft?

Share the cost burden with Israel. They had plenty of cool ideas to upgrade their beloved Phantoms (including the Mach 3+ MIPCC beast).

 

[isayyo2]

Share the cost burden with Israel. They had plenty of cool ideas to upgrade their beloved Phantoms (including the Mach 3+ MIPCC beast).

Luftwaffe Lavi’s to replace the Alpha Jets?

 

[apparition13]

Share the cost burden with Israel. They had plenty of cool ideas to upgrade their beloved Phantoms (including the Mach 3+ MIPCC beast).

Luftwaffe Lavi’s to replace the Alpha Jets?

Lavi could replace Phantom. And Alpha Jet. I have to say, Typhoon and Lavi would be a hell of a fleet. Although I suspect Super-Phantoms could be in service a few years sooner than Lavi, and certainly much sooner than Typhoon turned out to be.

 

[Keyboard Commando]

Was going alone with the TKF-90 ever seriously considered by the Germans? Perhaps Britain elects to go alone with the BAe P.110 (twin RB.199s and side intakes) and scores sales with Kuwait and the Saudis (who it was intended for initially), maybe Italy or Turkey buys it as well. France has already gone with Rafale, perhaps Spain joins as they considered initially, leaving Germany the odd man out. So they work with Northrop or McDD and bring the TKF-90 to fruition.

 

[starviking]

According to this source, as of 1987 the USAF and USN were paying the following for new fighters:

F-14: $18.6 million*

*I have no idea how the Navy got that price for that batch of F-14s. They paid $40.7 million per plane back in FY'84 and $68.2 million in FY'88.

Maybe the F14A+ upgraded airframes?

 

[zen]

Or maybe Dassault relents and a Franco-British fighter is the result.....Germany gets excluded and jumps on the Lavi/Nammer alternative.

 

[Cjc]

The Luftwaffe really liked its F4s and they were seriously upgraded over the years

This is why I think an F-4F ICE with PW1120s should be considered here, it's possible that the Germans would have elected to give the F-4s a more comprehensive upgrade, incorporating turbofan engines of lower weight and increased thrust in relation to the J79, the APG-65 radar (same radar in the Hornet) along with turbofan engines and access to AMRAAMs would effectively turn the Phantom into a 4th generation fighter. The increased thrust would make it stronger than it already was in the 2-circle fight and the PD radar and AMRAAMs would give it bvr capabilities at least on par with the Hornet. The real question is would the Germans pursue/ the US approve such an upgrade earlier on, the ICE came out in the 90s, however in a scenario assuming increased tensions with the Warsaw pact, it's more likely the US would have approved of West German Super Phantoms, and approved of them earlier on.

And how much was the P1120 unit cost? At which point upgrading the Phantom starts costing as much as newly built aircraft?

Share the cost burden with Israel. They had plenty of cool ideas to upgrade their beloved Phantoms (including the Mach 3+ MIPCC beast).

Whats a MIPCC? Can't find it from a search.

 

[Archibald]

Mass Injection and Pre-compressor Cooling

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268480966_Mass_Injection_and_Precompressor_Cooling_Engines_Analyses

 

[Arkadiy_Vergunov]

 

[JohnCitizen]

Would the Marinflieger need something with the Tornado on the way for maritime strike?

Of the options listed, the F-18 seems most likely, since what is really needed is something to replace the Phantoms in the air defense role. There are a couple wild cards though. One is the F-18L, the land based Hornet from Northrop. Another is the F-20. I think the F-18L is probably the best option for that role of the three, but perhaps less palatable since it's not in production. On the other hand Northrop and Dornier had a relationship (although that might have been later), so that might be appealing for local production. And it would give the F-18L a leg up.

I actually like the F-20 for FRG. It's quick into the air, a larger fleet could be purchased, and given the geography range isn't as much an issue as some other countries. Actually, since it carries about half the fuel of an F-18 but also has one rather than two F404 engines, range should be roughly comparable to the Hornet. It would also cost about half what an F-18A would in 1980, so twice as many could be bought. Unfortunately it wouldn't happen, due to the image the Tigershark had as a cut rate F-16. But a horde of F-20s flying quick air to air sorties would have done a job for NATO in the 80s.

I believe Germany was actually considering the Super Hornet as a replacement for the Tornado until it committed to F-35s! So German "Bugs" might actually have come closer to reality than you thought!

 

[Manuducati]

As far as cost, both articles give a $12 million figure for the upgrade package. According to this source, as of 1987 the USAF and USN were paying the following for new fighters:

F-14: $18.6 million*
F-15: $42 million
F-16: $16.2 million
F/A-18: $31.7 million

So the "significant fraction" mentioned on the AirVectors article is probably referring to the F-16.

*I have no idea how the Navy got that price for that batch of F-14s. They paid $40.7 million per plane back in FY'84 and $68.2 million in FY'88.

F-14s produced in 1987 were a mix of new built F-14A+ (to be renamed F14-B in 1991) and F-14A rebuilt to F-14A+ standard (mainly the new engines, RWR, and various other systems). I guess the average unit price includes the A to A+ upgrades.

HOME OF M.A.T.S. - The most comprehensive Grumman F-14 Reference Work - by Torsten Anft!

www.anft.net

 

[Scott Kenny]

So, the first question is: What mission(s) are we expecting this plane to do?

As I see it, you need Combat Air Patrol on the inter-German border, CAS/Interdiction, recon, and optionally some anti-ship attack capabilities over the Baltic.

Not necessarily all in the same plane, just the major combat missions we're talking about.

interesting. According to M. Van in that thread
the Germans wanted a single aircraft to do low level attack, air superiority and recon as well as being two engined.

I don't see a plane that is a good low level attacker as being a good air superiority aircraft, but low level attack and recon mix nicely. A low level attacker needs small wings to not get bounced all over the place, while the F14 and F15 have established big wings rule for air superiority.

The ideal replacement for the F-104G in the CAS/Interdiction, low level recon, and ship attack roles is an A-7E. It's not a great CAP plane, though, and it's not twin-engined. Didn't have the loss issues the F-104s did, either. It's also 3rd generation, not 4th, but that's not necessarily an issue since the A-7 assembly line was still going in 1983. Or the Luftwaffe could have gotten used A-7s as the USAF rotates most of theirs to ANG units or the boneyard.

Honestly, it's looking like the F-18 is the winner from the US. F-14s weren't bombcats in the early 1980s, and I can't see Germany paying for bomb integration alone. Similarly, the F-15s were strictly Air to Air, not a pound for air to ground until the -Es.

Tornadoes, obviously, though that's not really an import.

What French planes were twins and able to do those roles? M4k?

 

[BlackBat242]

I believe Germany was actually considering the Super Hornet as a replacement for the Tornado until it committed to F-35s! So German "Bugs" might actually have come closer to reality than you thought!

The Germans were looking at F/A-18s mostly for the EA-18G variant to replace their Tornado ECRs - and for the nuclear-capable aspect to replace their Tornado IDSs.

Recently, however, Germany ordered an EW upgrade to 15 two-seat Typhoons (Typhoon-EK), filling the ECR requirement, and the F-35A for the nuclear capability.

 

[JohnCitizen]

One would think the most cost-effective solution for Germany would have been to simply purchase more Eurofighters for the NATO nuclear mission. If one argument against that would be that it would leave NATO with two different airframes for the nuclear mission, there are currently two now . . . and, in the past, multiple jets!

The Eurofighter may have required some software / electrical reworking to carry nukes, but it could not have been that problematic. The roots of the project date to the early 80s, a prototype flew in the 80s--back then virtually EVERYTHING was designed to be nuclear-capable.

 

[CV12Hornet]

I don't see a plane that is a good low level attacker as being a good air superiority aircraft, but low level attack and recon mix nicely. A low level attacker needs small wings to not get bounced all over the place, while the F14 and F15 have established big wings rule for air superiority.

The F-15 is an excellent low-level attacker - Strike Eagle pilots were very pleasantly surprised at how smoothly it flew on the deck.

 

[JohnCitizen]

The F-15 is an excellent low-level attacker - Strike Eagle pilots were very pleasantly surprised at how smoothly it flew on the deck.

Yeah, the F-15E was built around a few key systems, one of them being its terrain-following radar enabling "nap of the earth" flying . . . i.e., extremely low.

I'm sure they still train for that mission, but the precision and stand-off capability of modern GPS-guided weapons has provided a very different CONOPS than what existed in the late 80s when the Strike Eagle was developed (as a replacement for the F-111).

 

[F-2]

F-15 always had ground attack capabilities, matra aside it had “A-7D equivalent”



Hornet or L Hornet seem most likely, as well as the “Super Phantom”

The Germans also had some interest in the F-16XL in the mid 80s.

 

[Scott Kenny]

The F-15 is an excellent low-level attacker - Strike Eagle pilots were very pleasantly surprised at how smoothly it flew on the deck.

Isn't that more a function of the TFR and fly-by-wire being really fast about damping motions?

 

[GTX]

F-20 option:

 

[CV12Hornet]

Isn't that more a function of the TFR and fly-by-wire being really fast about damping motions?

Possibly, but the pilots didn't think so:

The criticisms of the big wing are unfounded. We flew the F-111, which wasunbelievably stable at low level. It was a fear for us that the F-15E withits low wing loading was going to be rough, but we've found it surprisinglystable. The big wings make the ride a little bit rougher, but I'd take theold wing loading of this airplane over my old job in terms of capability.You notice it bumps around a little more, but when I can turn around and killsomeone because of that same wing, I'll gladly trade it. In the end, I'lltake a little bit bumpier ride.

[1.0] F-15 Origins & Variants

 

[RavenOne]

The West German Luftwaffe (and Marineflieger), for many years, went without a 4th generation fighter. (perhaps a bit surprisingly)
They soldiered on with the Starfighter and Phantom for quite some time, while Belgium, netherlands, spain, switzerland, finland, etc went ahead with a 4th gen (Italy is another one that held out for a while like Germany).

One could argue the Luftwaffe didn't get their 4th gen fighter until the re-unification, when they received the MiG-29s (although of limited role)
others would say it didnt come until the 4.5 gen Typhoon.

Lets say in this alternate time line. The Luftwaffe decided to buy a 4th gen fighter either in the very late 70s or early 80s
which would enter service in the early 80s or mid 80s.

Some candidates:
Mirage-2000: Operated by neighbor and I think Germany really did consider it at one point. Could carry exocet which would be welcomed by the Marineflieger. Later versions has Nuclear and strike options
Tornado ADV: not really a fighter, but Germany already had the IDS and could be an industrial move to add more jobs and also share spares
F-16: Maybe the least likely of the 4
F-18: Maybe the best US option, as it could be welcomed by both the Luftwaffe and Marineflieger

Assuming that in this timeline Germany (either hte Luftwaffe and/or Marineflieger) went ahead with a 4th gen aircraft how would this affect
- The Typhoon project? German interest started in 1979 and the Typhoon officially began around 83. But if Germany opted for one of the above aircraft
would the Typhoon still continue? Germany was a major partner
- The Rafale project? if Germany left the project due to being satisfied with its 4th gen acquisition. Would the UK and France continue together?
Rafale would become Jaguar 2 instead?
- East Germany? seeing some new Mirages, F-teens or more Tornadoes.. would East Germany alter their acquisitions to counter? perhaps more MiG-29s earlier? or even Su-27?

some what if eye candy

I cant find it on here, but theres a graphic poster of then YF-17 Cobra depicted in a dozen potential air forces colors as possibly those NATO nations were interested or targeted for marketing...one of those colors was Luftwaffe.

Also it wasnt that long ago, Luftwaffe was interested in the F/A-18E/FSuper Hornet / Boeing EA-18G Growler, in fact when I attended ILA Berlin 2018, its the first time I saw a Growler on static (my pics below)





cheers

 

[RavenOne]

^ same! I really liked that angular intake that the F-14 had. the Flankers had a similar intake, which is also why I like the Flanker.
to me the Flanker looks like a fixed wing F-14 with the intakes moved downwards

its probably why I felt that a Jolly Roger Flanker just looked so..natural

I love it

Don't laugh but theres definitely a few if not several (especially Top Gun graduates) USN fast jet jockeys have flown SU-27 be it under the USAF secret Red HAts, Red Eagles or perhaps in the white world legally either back seats of Indian SU-30,

cheers

 

[helmutkohl]

I love it

Don't laugh but theres definitely a few if not several (especially Top Gun graduates) USN fast jet jockeys have flown SU-27 be it under the USAF secret Red HAts, Red Eagles or perhaps in the white world legally either back seats of Indian SU-30,

cheers

On YouTube there's these two ex USN pilots (or maybe one of them is a Marine) named Mover and Gonky that talk about their time flying. One of them was in Malaysia for a bit and had a lot of experience with the Su-30MKMs they used. and also was in the back seat too. IRC, he said he was able to beat them in simulated dog fights, but he had a lot of respect for the Flankers.