USAF/USN 6th Gen Fighters - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA, ASFS News & Analysis

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B2Blain said:
The AF's leadership does not give you much confidence. Frank Kendall is an engineer and acts like one, throwing one idea out after another, before reversing course, pausing programs to reassess, then going off on another tangent. The AF needs leadership that knows what it's doing and sticks with a plan.

I've said this perviously, a CCA, costing $20-30 million, being attritable or semi-attritable and having a shelf life of ten years, is a terrible value. Much worse than paying $300 Million for NGAD. An F-35A will be able to carry 6 AMRAAM sized weapons in the near future. It also has a robust sensor suite and is much more versatile than a CCA in terms on weapons load. Seemingly for the price of an F-35A you get three CCAs. But mass has a quality of its own they say. But not if they get shot down like the Iranian and Houthi drones did once they were confronted with 4th and 5th Gen fighters from a first rate military with advanced ISR capabilities.

CCAs will be more capable than the suicide drones produced by Iran. But the AF needs to examine whether the US will be the losing end of a modern Mariana's Turkey Shoot over the Taiwan Strait.

A key questions regarding CCAs will be whether more innovative smaller companies like Anduril can change the cost paradigm with regard to combat aircraft. CSIS has a new report out about CCAs. The author, Greg Allen, thinks that may be CCA manufacturers might follow Space X and find efficiencies by taking a different approach to designing and manufacturing combat aircraft. We will see.

https://defaeroreport.com/2024/08/2...st-aug-29-24-season-2-e32-no-crew-no-problem/
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I agree with you. there is no way LM, NG or B are willing to abandon their current manufacturing footprint that they have sunk billions into, to say nothing of their workforce (this is probably more of a comment about Boeing than anyone else). We need new primes. We need primes that actually have a software-first technology skill. We need primes that can and are willing to bet on risky new manufacturing approaches. We need primes that are willing to look at new propulsion and planform ideas. I dont know if LM, NG or B *can* ever change, but I suspect that if they can, they won't until they feel like they have no choice... they need to be put into an existential situation. The leaders of these primes are like people who were born on third and feel like they hit a stand-up triple: they survived the great contraction (twice) and have forgotten what a brutal business this can be without an oligopoly and the artificial peace post the Soviet period.
 
Ozair said:
The argument wasn't on the competency, only on the continuity.

Agree neither LM or Boeing are shining themselves in glory right now but NG isn't exactly blameless either, they are running Sentinel after all...
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Im no fan of any of the primes, but we both know the reason why Sentinel is a disaster has far less to do with the missile itself and far more to do with having to rewire your grandparents 60s era system for secure, hardened fiber optics and all that good stuff.
 
Ozair said:
The argument wasn't on the competency, only on the continuity.

Agree neither LM or Boeing are shining themselves in glory right now but NG isn't exactly blameless either, they are running Sentinel after all...
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Sentinel's problem isn't the missile, it's the contract written assuming that the 1960s infrastructure was still usable when any of the USAF missile crews could have told them it wasn't and needed total replacement. To the point that attempting to refurbish the old stuff was significantly more expensive than just starting over with new construction.

All of which was not included in the original contract.
 
Training_Dummy said:
no one said EX is a magic bullet. far from it. the whole premise of my post is to look at the realistic options that get us say 100 airframes in the next five years. because the only option is to buy F-15EX, magically restart F/A-18E/F line (for what purpose I have no clue), Bigfoot into the Viper production line, or do the same with F-35. We cannot buy more F-22. Absent a new fighter, these are the options.
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You replied to my response to an article by David Axe claiming to retire F-22s in favour of F-15EXs. Nothing you have said or I have stated contradicts the stupidity of Axe's claim.

As for the F-15EX I don't think it is the solution and clearly the USAF agrees. If we push forward X number of years to a Taiwan straight conflict there are three main issues that the EX doesn't address. Ramp space, target types and weapons stocks.

There will be finite ramp space available for tactical aviation to operate from. Using that on F-15EX which cannot penetrate sufficiently into the IADS doesn't help the overall force structure. I'd trade F-15EXs for CCAs from those same locations accompanying F-35s and F-22s into theatre.

There are also a finite number of targets that can be prosecuted with long range stand off precision weapons. For land and sea based targets that are mobile the USAF will need platforms and weapons that can dynamically target those and last time I looked at the Chinese structure a huge amount of them are mobile which does not lend themselves to prosecution by long range generally slow weapons fired from stand off fighters. For air based targets the F-15EX stooging around outside the IADS but close enough to support with 174 "class VLRAAM" or JATM or whatever is also within range of Chinese similar based weapons. If the Chinese are seeing anything on their radar scopes at that range it is the tennis court with a load of external missiles.

Finally weapons stocks today and likely for the next ten years will never approach the number of targets they are required to hit. If we look at the April 2018 attacks against Syrian military targets by Coalition forces they used 105 cruise missiles against three small targets. The US has approx 7000 JASSM today but if we projected a US strategic bomber fleet using those weapons they would likely not last more than five to seven days (the B-52 fleet maxed on JASSM would use approx 2000 a day... and that is before you add B-1s to the mix) before the inventory was depleted. What value is there in F-15EX flying after seven days when most JASSM stock are gone. HACM will never be a large volume weapon and there are already sufficient F-15E in the fleet, even after the -220 fleet retires, to support that mission. That is before we get into how few Tomahawk the USN would actually be able to use, both from a small inventory, approx 4000 weapons, and their inability to reload while underway. If we move to AAMs how many 174 "class VLRAAM" will ever be acquired given the SM-6 is costly and likely prioritised for sea based assets. I could see the USN having perhaps 200 total in a few years if they were lucky given production is going to only 300 a year by 2028 and the USN and US Army are also using the missile. For JATM/AIM-260 who knows what the production rate will be, there have been statements of more than AMRAAM by 2026 but is that pre or post AMRAAM scaling. Either way the weapons will flow to the F-22 and F/A-18 fleet while the EX fleet is a lower priority.

I am all for a long range large payload stealthy manned NGAD and I still think the USAF will get there but I also can fully understand why they have decided to pause for a moment to ensure they have all their ducks lined up in a row. Manned NGAD without a complementary CCA is probably a lot less effective and potentially less survivable. I see no value in a 6th gen platform that doesn't address long range long persistence and large payload.

Re the primes there isn't a good one (NG despite their claims knew exactly what they were doing signing up to Sentinel and the expected cost growth going forward) and all are locked into a cost structure that is unsustainable and none are blameless. That doesn't mean they aren't trying to do the right thing but they are beholden to the stock market and their shareholders. No wonder why Andruil and GA are the first two for CCA phase one and the US is beginning to turn towards silicon valley.
 
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The prime situation is really bad now, the USAF needs 1.5 - 3 new aircraft designs and it cannot rely on any of the 3 main primes to deliver.

I do have a criticism about the software-focused description. Yes, better architected software fixes the F-35 mission software catastrophe, but it isn't as helpful for Taiwan scenario. Useful payload, range, speed, operating envelope all come with heavier weight.

What the US really needs is Anduril or GA to get to 40kLbs-60kLbs MTOW size-class ASAP, preferably manned. Give a real option for a 4+ Gen fighter or 4.9+ gen interdictor, something that can do multiple missions with useful payloads in the Pacific. Something that's easy to upgrade, easy to update, put on latest payloads, sensor pods, whatever, and not leave the USAF waiting years for a normal block upgrade.

Lastly, there doesn't seem to be a worthwhile operational concept for the Pacific. The Taiwan Strait battle is closer to WW3, Fulda-Gap scenario than anything else. In such an environment, air superiority is very nice to have, but rather secondary to achieving the immediate mission (sinking Chinese ships or preventing Soviet Armored Divisions from overrunning Western Europe). There doesn't seem to be a cross-service coherent view of what to do and how that can inform procurement.
 
Can I post a hypothetical here? If not I apologize in advance. I noticed that while NGAD is on hold, NG spoke on the FAXX after the fact and it had me wonder; the Navy got in on the F-35 program, is it wild to think that the USAF is going to get in on the F/A-XX? With the fear of fighting a near-peer adversary, maneuvering around the Pacific with at risk/damaged runways may be needed. Maybe the USAF is trying to work with a more robust bird.
 
FlyGuy369 said:
Can I post a hypothetical here? If not I apologize in advance. I noticed that while NGAD is on hold, NG spoke on the FAXX after the fact and it had me wonder; the Navy got in on the F-35 program, is it wild to think that the USAF is going to get in on the F/A-XX? With the fear of fighting a near-peer adversary, maneuvering around the Pacific with at risk/damaged runways may be needed. Maybe the USAF is trying to work with a more robust bird.
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That would.make a lot of sense if the USN and Congress were still funding F/A-XX. The funding profile though is looking at essentially keeping the PMO going and that is about it for at least the next couple of years.

Edit: source info is here, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/9...re-us-navy-fa-xx-next-gen-fighter/ar-BB1qaguP and it is proposed but with the USN serious about taking.moneynl away I can see why Congress gave it up as well.
 
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Ozair said:
That would.make a lot of sense if the USN and Congress were still funding F/A-XX. The funding profile though is looking at essentially keeping the PMO going and that is about it for at least the next couple of years.

Edit: source info is here, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/9...re-us-navy-fa-xx-next-gen-fighter/ar-BB1qaguP and it is proposed but with the USN serious about taking.moneynl away I can see why Congress gave it up as well.
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Something Isn't adding up here. It just seems very odd to me that they've slashed funding and put on hold so many highly advanced next generation projects. I'm just trying to wrap my head around it and I can't seem to make sense of it.
 
FlyGuy369 said:
Something Isn't adding up here. It just seems very odd to me that they've slashed funding and put on hold so many highly advanced next generation projects. I'm just trying to wrap my head around it and I can't seem to make sense of it.
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For the USN they just cannot afford it in their budget. The pause with NGAD and F/A-XX funding reduction aren't linked in the sense of some threat or technology failure.
“We’re absolutely committed to the capacity and lethality of the of the carrier wing,” Rear Adm. Ben Reynolds, deputy assistant secretary of the Navy for budget, told reporters last week. “The capacity [and] the firepower of the air wing is orders of magnitude above anything else that that [the Defense Department] has.”


Reynolds said that funding for F/A-XX, the strike fighter intended to replace the service’s stalwart F/A-18 Super Hornet, was previously projected to receive around $1.5 billion in FY25, but the constraints of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 forced the Navy to disperse much of that money into future budgets. The FRA, signed into law last June, provides an FY25 defense spending cap of $895 billion, and the Navy and Marine Corps’ share of that topline under the newly-released budget is $257.6 billion.

“In terms of what comes at the top of the list, it is readiness. It is people. It is the today issues that we have to get on top of,” Navy Under Secretary Erik Raven told reporters while speaking alongside Reynolds. “Where our guidance directs us to take risk is in future modernization.”
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breakingdefense.com

Navy delaying next-gen F/A-XX fighter spending for near-term investments - Breaking Defense

The combination of delaying F/A-XX development and shutting down F/A-18 production may not go well for Navy leadership when they testify to lawmakers.
breakingdefense.com breakingdefense.com
 
I don't think that would happen somehow kqcke for you, that would quite possibly be a step too far for the US Navy. Let's wait and see what happens to the F/A-XX program, I want it to continue and not be scrapped.
 
FighterJock said:
I don't think that would happen somehow kqcke for you, that would quite possibly be a step too far for the US Navy. Let's wait and see what happens to the F/A-XX program, I want it to continue and not be scrapped.
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Just saying because the requierments aren't to far off each other
 
How long would it take the French naval FCAS to enter service against the F/A-XX? Just a thought.
 
FighterJock said:
How long would it take the French naval FCAS to enter service against the F/A-XX? Just a thought.
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The French Fcas will never see the light , the French economy is unable to make this program happen, we will stay forever with the Rafale..It is very sad but the Rafale F-5 will be the last French fighter.
 
dark sidius said:
The French Fcas will never see the light , the French economy is unable to make this program happen, we will stay forever with the Rafale..It is very sad but the Rafale F-5 will be the last French fighter.
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But you still got Germany, Spain and even belgium to squeez out some money
 
kqcke for you said:
But you still got Germany, Spain and even belgium to squeez out some money
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I also would argue that er See FCAS tought it will be a very Long Journey. But given how far Tempest is and Sweden not showing enough it Shows that for now they don't have a choice for an european Fighter with there own industrie being part of it.
 
FlyGuy369 said:
Can I post a hypothetical here? If not I apologize in advance. I noticed that while NGAD is on hold, NG spoke on the FAXX after the fact and it had me wonder; the Navy got in on the F-35 program, is it wild to think that the USAF is going to get in on the F/A-XX? With the fear of fighting a near-peer adversary, maneuvering around the Pacific with at risk/damaged runways may be needed. Maybe the USAF is trying to work with a more robust bird.
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Interesting thought, but here where it doesn't work. The Navy likely does not have the same requirements at the minimum for range and broadband stealth. The Navy also has constraints it much consider that the AF does not have to - such as the size of the aircraft which needs to fit on the carrier deck.

I don't think the Navy really wants to penetrate high contested areas like the AF. Operating from carriers from give or take 1,000 nm from Chinese baes offer some protection. A key mission would like be fleet defense, operating with CCAs, resurrecting the outer air battle. It is likely that the F/A-XX may use the same components as NGAD, but may be slightly smaller with a different planform.
 
GTX said:
www.twz.com

Air Force "Starting At The Beginning" With NGAD 6th Gen Fighter Requirements Review

Signs that big changes are coming to the USAF's NGAD combat jet plans, or that the program may be supplanted entirely, are growing.
www.twz.com www.twz.com
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Well, the moral of the story for the prime contractors is...

Never bid on a major development program personally championed by a zealous Service Secretary.

Exhibit A. SECNAV John Lehman and ATA/A-12.
Exhibit B. SECAF Frank Kendall and NGAD PCA.

Interesting that Northrop is 2 for 2 in reading the ATA and NGAD tea leaves. Very impressive!
 
joewee said:
Well, the moral of the story for the prime contractors is...

Never bid on a major development program personally championed by a zealous Service Secretary.

Exhibit A. SECNAV John Lehman and ATA/A-12.
Exhibit B. SECAF Frank Kendall and NGAD PCA.

Interesting that Northrop is 2 for 2 in reading the ATA and NGAD tea leaves. Very impressive!
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We understand nothing at what they say, what they say mean nothing , we know bla-bla-bla , we don(t know bla-bla-bla, we have CCA 1 but CCA2 could be enterely different bla-bla-bla, there is something strange with what they say , yesterday we retire F-22, today we are in falling love with the F-22 ??? we have F-15 EX , hey guy you have F-15 since the 80s what you say is ridiculous. Listen General , build the B-21 fleet , build the SR-72 hypersonic striker , put a variable engine in the F-35 , buy all the hypersonic missile you can , and you can win. Another words are the family of systems it mean nothing too , what is in your family ? one pod ? 2 missiles ? family of systems of what ? Realy it could not be possible , there is something strange behind all of this story, a capacity mature in the black world now ? When we look the Ukraine war if you don't dominate the sky , you don't win and UAV change nothing about that the both have UAV and the war will never be win by anybody.
 
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Elysium said:
Man, what a bummer. I remember reading way back in 2009, when the F-22 production was cancelled, that it was done with the explicit knowledge that its successor was already in the works, and they knew what they were doing. Apparently, not even close.
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Yes it seem to be the same we see now what a good idea it was.
 
I appreciate that Kendall maybe got out over his skis, and that a fighter even more expensive (in relative terms) than the F-22 might not be the best strategy for an Air Force that might be in a shooting war sometime soon, but some of the comments here were less than reassuring. “In an Air Force where we launched cruise missiles out of the back of C-17s [as part of a program called Rapid Dragon] and dropped people out of the bomb bay of… B-24s [during World War II] and things of that nature, I don’t even know what a cargo airplane is, or a bomber is, or a fighter is.”

Really?

Maybe I’ve just been reading too much recently about the navy’s morass of acquisitions since 1990, but this “all categories and subdivisions are consensual delusions, lean and agile software adaptations can open new avenues of capability in any system”-type philosophy sounds like the indulgent design fantasies that led the Navy down the path from frigates and destroyers to “Power Projection Ships,” to the Swiss army crapbox that was the LCS.

I believe these people are relatively smart and conscientious when it comes to their responsibilities, but the language here sounds a little too wide-eyed, pie in the sky for my liking.
 
MrTopaz said:
I appreciate that Kendall maybe got out over his skis, and that a fighter even more expensive (in relative terms) than the F-22 might not be the best strategy for an Air Force that might be in a shooting war sometime soon, but some of the comments here were less than reassuring. “In an Air Force where we launched cruise missiles out of the back of C-17s [as part of a program called Rapid Dragon] and dropped people out of the bomb bay of… B-24s [during World War II] and things of that nature, I don’t even know what a cargo airplane is, or a bomber is, or a fighter is.”

Really?

Maybe I’ve just been reading too much recently about the navy’s morass of acquisitions since 1990, but this “all categories and subdivisions are consensual delusions, lean and agile software adaptations can open new avenues of capability in any system”-type philosophy sounds like the indulgent design fantasies that led the Navy down the path from frigates and destroyers to “Power Projection Ships,” to the Swiss army crapbox that was the LCS.

I believe these people are relatively smart and conscientious when it comes to their responsibilities, but the language here sounds a little too wide-eyed, pie in the sky for my liking.
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Yes what they say in this article mean nothing. Or there is something they can't talk about.... there is something behind the line, it is impossible speaking like that for the guys like us.
 
FlyGuy369 said:
Can I post a hypothetical here? If not I apologize in advance. I noticed that while NGAD is on hold, NG spoke on the FAXX after the fact and it had me wonder; the Navy got in on the F-35 program, is it wild to think that the USAF is going to get in on the F/A-XX? With the fear of fighting a near-peer adversary, maneuvering around the Pacific with at risk/damaged runways may be needed. Maybe the USAF is trying to work with a more robust bird.
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Possible, but the USN has some weight constraints that the USAF doesn't. MTOW of ~85klbs due to catapult limits, max landing weight of about 55klbs due to arresting gear limits. Plus the dimensional limits of the flight deck elevators. ~69ft long and ~33ft wings folded.



FlyGuy369 said:
Something Isn't adding up here. It just seems very odd to me that they've slashed funding and put on hold so many highly advanced next generation projects. I'm just trying to wrap my head around it and I can't seem to make sense of it.
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They have things like Columbia-class submarines eating the budget alive.



B2Blain said:
Interesting thought, but here where it doesn't work. The Navy likely does not have the same requirements at the minimum for range and broadband stealth. The Navy also has constraints it much consider that the AF does not have to - such as the size of the aircraft which needs to fit on the carrier deck.

I don't think the Navy really wants to penetrate high contested areas like the AF. Operating from carriers from give or take 1,000 nm from Chinese baes offer some protection. A key mission would like be fleet defense, operating with CCAs, resurrecting the outer air battle. It is likely that the F/A-XX may use the same components as NGAD, but may be slightly smaller with a different planform.
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Agreed, I think that the FAXX will be a smaller, lighter aircraft with the same systems designed for NGAD.
 
Elysium said:
Man, what a bummer. I remember reading way back in 2009, when the F-22 production was cancelled, that it was done with the explicit knowledge that its successor was already in the works, and they knew what they were doing. Apparently, not even close.
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If l may... call on everyone to check what should be the first post of this thread... Yesterday my finger slipped and opened the first page by accident. Without making any comments on anyone and any objects whatsoever. But it says Boeing, Sixth Generation, by 2024.
 
okakac said:
If l may... call on everyone to check what should be the first post of this thread... Yesterday my finger slipped and opened the first page by accident. Without making any comments on anyone and any objects whatsoever. But it says Boeing, Sixth Generation, by 2024.
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We are light years away of that. The only new platform we see since decades is the B-21 and I m afraid that it stay like that for 2 decades again. I asked my self where the enormous amount of money of NGAD program since years is going ? Billions for a pod on F-22 ?
 
B2Blain said:
I don't think the Navy really wants to penetrate high contested areas like the AF. Operating from carriers from give or take 1,000 nm from Chinese baes offer some protection. A key mission would like be fleet defense, operating with CCAs, resurrecting the outer air battle. It is likely that the F/A-XX may use the same components as NGAD, but may be slightly smaller with a different planform.
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F/A-XX may be a part of the kill chain to counter/defend against boost glide vehicles. Whether it's lock down shoot down, boost phase intercept or taking out launch sites.

For the latter 2, being able to penetrate highly contested airspace may be on the table. Not to mention the navy still has a giant gap in deep strike requirement with the cancellation of a/f-x. Ideally, the f/a-xx is just an updated version of a/f-x.
 
donnage99 said:
F/A-XX may be a part of the kill chain to counter/defend against boost glide vehicles. Whether it's lock down shoot down, boost phase intercept or taking out launch sites.

For the latter 2, being able to penetrate highly contested airspace may be on the table. Not to mention the navy still has a giant gap in deep strike requirement with the cancellation of a/f-x. Ideally, the f/a-xx is just an updated version of a/f-x.
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But for instance there is no FA/XX, budget for it is slashed. Going the same way of NGAD.
 
GTX said:
www.twz.com

Air Force "Starting At The Beginning" With NGAD 6th Gen Fighter Requirements Review

Signs that big changes are coming to the USAF's NGAD combat jet plans, or that the program may be supplanted entirely, are growing.
www.twz.com www.twz.com
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Former Chief of Staff of the Air Force, General Charles Brown, is fond of saying, "Accelerate Change or Lose." Depending how you interpret it, the AF is taking a pause or starting over with NGAD. They try to spin it by saying that air superiority is not dependent on one platform, that they are relying on a system of systems approach. But you know and I know that the NGAD platform is an important element. CCAs are there to enable manned platforms. Meanwhile the Chinese have the initiative and are pressing ahead, implementing their vision and concept of operations. It looks like they have gotten inside our decision cycle and we are just reacting.
 
Theres alot of doom and gloom here but think about this. What if NGAD was looking at 500 million a fighter plus another say 300million in CCAs per fighter? All that was going to happen was NGAD would eventually be canceled and we would get nothing. But say if we stop, reevaluate, and get an 80% solution for say 200 million a plane plus another 100 million in CCAs per? NGAD survives and we get enough planes.

I'll take Option 2 over Option 1. The 3 Seawolves are great but I'll take the 22+ Virginias.
 
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