USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA, ASFS news

Does anyone think that Lockheed's new facility at Palmdale is related to manufacturing a new 6th generation fighter? Does anyone have any thoughts that could contradict the view that the new facility is to support or prove technology for a new fighter program?
 
Apparently there is a restricted program that Lockheed (Palmdale) won that is being acquired by a US customer and is being marketed internationally as well.

From the Q4 earnings call:

We have seen our classified business from an order book standpoint and from a sales standpoint growing faster than the corporation. If you go around the horn, I've mentioned in the past, we won a strategic program in Palmdale, where we're starting to see the benefits of multiple customers starting to -- want that system. In fact, we're also in conversation with international partner of the United States of their interest in that system and back to Mike's question, that's the reason for the capital growth out in Palmdale.
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bring_it_on said:
Apparently there is a restricted program that Lockheed (Palmdale) won that is being acquired by a US customer and is being marketed internationally as well.

From the Q4 earnings call:

We have seen our classified business from an order book standpoint and from a sales standpoint growing faster than the corporation. If you go around the horn, I've mentioned in the past, we won a strategic program in Palmdale, where we're starting to see the benefits of multiple customers starting to -- want that system. In fact, we're also in conversation with international partner of the United States of their interest in that system and back to Mike's question, that's the reason for the capital growth out in Palmdale.
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How do they define strategic?
 
bobbymike said:
How do they define strategic?
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If I were to venture a guess I would say that it is likely referring to the potential impact on sales etc on Lockheed as opposed to the traditional use of the word which reflects the mission etc. So think number of zeros and not mutually assured destruction :)
 
I'm thinking it's a new UAV/UCAV or possibly a new missile and not a sixth gen fighter. We didn't sell the F-22 to anyone else, we're not going to sell it's replacement to anyone else as well. I also don't think the new LM facility at Palmdale has to do with a new fighter, because it would make Roper's threat about switching over to the new fighter and cancelling the F-35 a hollow threat. That leads me to believe the fighter demo that flew was a Boeing Phantom Works product, since NG is busy with the B-21. Otherwise, why would LM see cancelling a further F-35 buy in lieu of the sixth gen fighter as a threat? OK, make us stop building this airplane (F-35) so you can buy that airplane (6th-gen fighter) which is newer and more expensive.
 
doggedman said:
Does anyone think that Lockheed's new facility at Palmdale is related to manufacturing a new 6th generation fighter? Does anyone have any thoughts that could contradict the view that the new facility is to support or prove technology for a new fighter program?
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JATM
Sundog said:
Otherwise, why would LM see cancelling a further F-35 buy in lieu of the sixth gen fighter as a threat?
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Margins.
 
First off, thanks very much to all for the absolutely terrific color. Just a few thoughts:

1. As I recall, we didn't sell the F-22 internationally because of some rather stupid marketing by the Air Force. The Air Force lobbied Congress for funding stating the technology was so damned sensitive and it couldn't be exported. Then, later on, when the Air Force did want to sell it to other customers, Congress threw that right back in their face.

2. But I'll tell you, I do lean towards your UAV idea. Or a missile? Might be production of one of LMT's Hypersonic missile programs?

3. I was on the earnings call and that was the very reason I posed the question.

4. On the interesting point about a 6th generation fighter being a threat to the F-35 - why do you think this? The F-35 seems to be more of a replacement for the F-16. The USAF has always maintained production of two fighter types -one heavy and one light. The 6th generation fighter seems to be more aimed at replacing the F-15 and eventually the small fleet of F-22s? No?
 
doggedman said:
4. On the interesting point about a 6th generation fighter being a threat to the F-35 - why do you think this? The F-35 seems to be more of a replacement for the F-16. The USAF has always maintained production of two fighter types -one heavy and one light. The 6th generation fighter seems to be more aimed at replacing the F-15 and eventually the small fleet of F-22s? No?
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There is finite money to go around. If you are leading a very high rate of production fighter program then you always have to be worried about your customers diluting that by purchasing other types of aircraft. As Marauder said, even if Lockheed gets the NGAD contract their earnings will still be impacted by scaling back from a relatively higher margin (mature), high rate of production program to something new. Not that it really matters to the USAF beyond a certain degree but it is something that the company will no doubt want to track.

Having said that, it is tough to see NGAD hitting rate production any time before the late 2020's at the earliest (probably more like early 2030's is a more reasonable estimate) which means that there is a decade or so before these two programs have to directly compete for procurement funding.
 
bring_it_on said:
There is finite money to go around. If you are leading a very high rate of production fighter program then you always have to be worried about your customers diluting that by purchasing other types of aircraft. As Marauder said, even if Lockheed gets the NGAD contract their earnings will still be impacted by scaling back from a relatively higher margin (mature), high rate of production program to something new. Not that it really matters to the USAF beyond a certain degree but it is something that the company will no doubt want to track.

Having said that, it is tough to see NGAD hitting rate production any time before the late 2020's at the earliest (probably more like early 2030's is a more reasonable estimate) which means that there is a decade or so before these two programs have to directly compete for procurement funding.
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Also, we know the new production engines won't be ready until the 2025 time frame as well.
 
Do you have a source mentioning the NGAD engine or its timeline? I hadn't seen anything about it.
 
Josh_TN said:
Do you have a source mentioning the NGAD engine or its timeline? I hadn't seen anything about it.
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Most are going by the budget. The Advanced engine development efforts seem to conclude around FY-25 based on the -21 budget materials. I don't think that, in and of itself, is sufficient to draw the conclusions that AvWeek etc have done..
 

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marauder2048 said:
JATM
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We are developing it in secrecy, potentially producing it in secrecy(if it is indeed the source of Palmdale expansion), planning to store it in secrecy and now even potentially offering it to allies in secrecy. When was the last time something like this happened :) How do you think the Navy will keep it secret assuming that reports of it being integrated on the SH are true?
 
bring_it_on said:
marauder2048 said:
JATM
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We are developing it in secrecy, potentially producing it in secrecy(if it is indeed the source of Palmdale expansion), planning to store it in secrecy and now even potentially offering it to allies in secrecy. When was the last time something like this happened :) How do you think the Navy will keep it secret assuming that reports of it being integrated on the SH are true?
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Oh it's pure guesswork on my part. Just based on the fact that JATM is SAP and seems to have some
heavy NAWCMD involvement (https://www.navair.navy.mil/news/NAWCWDs-Meagher-named-Civilian-Logistician-Year/Thu-12202018-1554)
and the timeline for Palmdale's facility expansion lines up.
 
Sundog said:
I'm thinking it's a new UAV/UCAV or possibly a new missile and not a sixth gen fighter. We didn't sell the F-22 to anyone else, we're not going to sell it's replacement to anyone else as well. I also don't think the new LM facility at Palmdale has to do with a new fighter, because it would make Roper's threat about switching over to the new fighter and cancelling the F-35 a hollow threat. That leads me to believe the fighter demo that flew was a Boeing Phantom Works product, since NG is busy with the B-21. Otherwise, why would LM see cancelling a further F-35 buy in lieu of the sixth gen fighter as a threat? OK, make us stop building this airplane (F-35) so you can buy that airplane (6th-gen fighter) which is newer and more expensive.
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Why can't NG build a bomber and a fighter demonstator? Boeing is much busier than NG; and isn't NG the builder of the alleged new uav spy drone? NG is smaller but they are big enough to do more than 1 project. Most of the heavy lifting for the raider is done and per the USAF the first one built is production intent.

With the new ultra liberal administration we will be lucky if the demonstrator is followed up with a real article and not canceled in favor of new eagles and vipers. Heck I don't think we will get 100 raiders and a new icbm if he is going to continue going to the left of captain 0. This administration is so liberal the next fighter we get is likely to be the 15x with some LO paint.
 
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rooster said:
Why can't NG build a bomber and a fighter demonstrator? Boeing is much busier than NG; and isn't NG the builder of the alleged new uav spy drone? NG is smaller but they are big enough to do more than 1 project. Most of the heavy lifting for the raider is done and per the USAF the first one built is production intent.

With the new ultra liberal administration we will be lucky if the demonstrator is followed up with a real article and not canceled in favor of new eagles and vipers. Heck I don't think we will get 100 raiders and a new icbm if he is going to continue going to the left of captain 0. This administration is so liberal the next fighter we get is likely to be the 15x with some LO paint.
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Unless the US is to become a vassal state to the PRC, the B-21 program will be successful, as will GBSD, & the Columbia Boomers. They will form the backbone of deterrence going into the future. There may be other classified programs that are critical in this regard as well, we did just open up a new branch of the military, meaning we are militarizing another critical war-fighting domain, publicly. I know it's easy to be swept up in political drama but it's not hard to look behind the theatrics and still see there's a competent core of decision makers guiding our country and preparing us for what's over the horizon, even if the political establishment sold out US manufacturing to China decades ago (something we need to get back desperately in some form or fashion).

But let's not get off-topic. Northrop retains engineers for producing fighter aircraft, just like other defense contractors. We may even be surprised and see the defense budget bloom under Biden. Stay hopeful.
 
The current administration hasn't indicated any change in defense spending or specific projects. F-15EX and possible F-16 buys are something that the USAF itself is pushing that is not politically driven by any branch of government. I personally think any additional F-16 buys are a bad idea, though the F-15 has a lot of advantages that make it the build worth while. There is aboslutely no way the B-21 gets cancelled. The program is already about to deliver a product and the B-1/2 fleet desperately needs replacement.

As for NGAD, that remains to be seen. Congress seems skeptical of the approach the USAF is taking and the program is too classified to have any sense of how successful it is.
 
marauder2048 said:
bring_it_on said:
marauder2048 said:
JATM
Click to expand...

We are developing it in secrecy, potentially producing it in secrecy(if it is indeed the source of Palmdale expansion), planning to store it in secrecy and now even potentially offering it to allies in secrecy. When was the last time something like this happened :) How do you think the Navy will keep it secret assuming that reports of it being integrated on the SH are true?
Click to expand...
Oh it's pure guesswork on my part. Just based on the fact that JATM is SAP and seems to have some
heavy NAWCMD involvement (https://www.navair.navy.mil/news/NAWCWDs-Meagher-named-Civilian-Logistician-Year/Thu-12202018-1554)
and the timeline for Palmdale's facility expansion lines up.
Click to expand...

Yes it is logical but I think in the past Lockheed has mentioned that the restricted program was with aeronautics..Wasn't JASSM the last missile the Skunk Works helped out on?
 
Josh_TN said:
As for NGAD, that remains to be seen. Congress seems skeptical of the approach the USAF is taking and the program is too classified to have any sense of how successful it is.
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How has the Congress expressed its skepticism? By funding 95% of the USAF's ask for the broader effort?
 
I meant verbally some of them expressed some skepticism; broadly they seem on board at this juncture. I can't remember who said what but I remember some members being a little leery of the 'digital century series' idea. But it wasn't a political problem; it was the technical aspects.

EDIT: ...and broadly speaking, members of Congress aren't well equipped to judge the technical merits of a program anyway.
 
Josh_TN said:
EDIT: ...and broadly speaking, members of Congress aren't well equipped to judge the technical merits of a program anyway.
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Well of course. That's why they flood their ranks with a bunch of policy majors as staffers ;)
 
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In_A_Dream said:
On topic - Do you think NGAD & PCA efforts will be merged?
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More so than they are now? No. They will use similar power plants and systems. The airframes will be different. Combining the two would be exceptionally stupid given the very differing roles the USAF and USN fly with regard to their primary fighter missions.
 
Sundog said:
In_A_Dream said:
On topic - Do you think NGAD & PCA efforts will be merged?
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More so than they are now? No. They will use similar power plants and systems. The airframes will be different. Combining the two would be exceptionally stupid given the very differing roles the USAF and USN fly with regard to their primary fighter missions.
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Are you thinking of the F/A-XX?
 
dark sidius said:
flateric said:
One of NG NGAD public concepts
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Can you say us where this picture come from?, the design of the NGAD look some big f-35 like design. Northrop could be the builder of the demonstrator.....
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There is no naval demonstrator. The Navy has barely completed its AOA and seems to be heading towards a more traditional acquisition model as opposed to the "Digital Century Series" path that the Air Force has committed to (for now).
 
bring_it_on said:
dark sidius said:
flateric said:
One of NG NGAD public concepts
Click to expand...
Can you say us where this picture come from?, the design of the NGAD look some big f-35 like design. Northrop could be the builder of the demonstrator.....
Click to expand...

There is no naval demonstrator. The Navy has barely completed its AOA and seems to be heading towards a more traditional acquisition model as opposed to the "Digital Century Series" path that the Air Force has committed to (for now).
Click to expand...
Sure I agree but this picture show a Navy NGAD not USAF one. Or may be they work for the two services on the same platform? In this time we see Northrop pictures , on the Darpa Longshot and now on the Navy NGAD I have the feeling that Northrop could be the leader in military plane for 21th century.
 
dark sidius said:
bring_it_on said:
dark sidius said:
flateric said:
One of NG NGAD public concepts
Click to expand...
Can you say us where this picture come from?, the design of the NGAD look some big f-35 like design. Northrop could be the builder of the demonstrator.....
Click to expand...

There is no naval demonstrator. The Navy has barely completed its AOA and seems to be heading towards a more traditional acquisition model as opposed to the "Digital Century Series" path that the Air Force has committed to (for now).
Click to expand...
Sure I agree but this picture show a Navy NGAD not USAF one. Or may be they work for the two services on the same platform? In this time we see Northrop pictures , on the Darpa Longshot and now on the Navy NGAD I have the feeling that Northrop could be the leader in military plane for 21th century.
Click to expand...

The Navy wants to get ready to accelerate its NGAD starting FY-22 and beyond, so it is logical for Northrop's marketing to highlight a next gen. naval fighter. Boeing has been doing it for like a decade if not more its normal behavior. :). Of course whatever may exist now is just notional art since the Navy is barely out of the AoA and needs to establish formal requirements to which Northrop, and others will design to.
 
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