Forest Green
ACCESS: Above Top Secret
- Joined
- 11 June 2019
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Getting its fiscal house in order and modifying how DOD does business seems to be part of the plan of the incoming administration.
Instead of that PLAAF will be the more powefull Air Force in the world.Only congress can increase the NGAD/USAF budget. Alternatively, only Congress can allow the USAF to retire legacy platforms to fund NGAD.
I think that all depends on whether the new Chinese aircraft are to be taken seriously, and whether the USAF is iwlling to compromise on certain elements of the design to actually get a finished product or not. I haven't been following the program much, but up to a few months ago, the latter was certainly up for considerationIt will probably become the TSR2, Arrow of the new age, but reality is coming to the forefront
So fun they ended up crapping their pants an developing the Flankers.Everything else was American own overthinking, which USSR simply let go - for fun purposes.
whether the USAF is iwlling to compromise on certain elements of the design to actually get a finished product or not.
They really need to figure out how to automate production of airframes if they want to get the cost down and rate up.No, they have been very clear that they are following the model of consumer cell phones.
They want to have a hardware platform that allows them to rapidly solve problems through software, and iterate the hardware as rapidly as feasible.
Too much time with talking , asking themselves too much bla-bla , instead of this wasting time China running very fast , stopping F-35 and going in another program realy fast will be vital, F-35 program is not a success it is time to go on another thing, buying number of obsolete plane is not the solution in face of China.Not sure if you are referring to the last 3-4 months of debate based on Secretary Kendall's pause on NGAD leading to a blue-ribbon committee reviewing program and proposing next steps etc. If so, it appears to be significantly influenced by budget outlook and reading between the lines seems to be a pause to assess whether they should substantially ('not minor compromises to get a finished product') diverge from the plans they've been developing and try to field something else instead of pursuing something that will get stuck somewhere in development and not field in quantities that are needed due to budgets. You are talking about $5-$10 Billion in RDT&E dollars a year (peak years) to develop PCA, CCA, NGAP etc which is like 10-12% of the entire AF RDTE budget (and likely 15-20% if you strip out pass through and space force funding). Procurement likewise can be expected to be 2x of what the AF is presently spending on F-35As each year - and for likely half the quantity. I believe the group assembled by Frank Kendall recommended that the manned PCA be pursued as the path forward.
While its one thing to suggest that they should set that aside and pursue capabilities and CONOPS that fit better with budget, it assumes that there are 'cheap' or at least significantly more affordable asymmetric capabilities that the service can rapidly invest to regain the sort of edge it hoped to gain via NGAD (even if its in the collective through multiple capabilities). Its not going to be long before China fields a regional force comprising of more than 1,000 stealthy fifth and fifth gen plus fighters, bombers and UAV's. The clock is ticking. Of those 'candidate alternatives', if they cannot be put into production later this decade, they really aren't very viable as options IMHO.
That is not going to happen for a long while.stopping F-35
Saddly , this time I m all right with Elon Musk , but not with his UAV conclusion , too much money have been spent on the F-35 for the result we have , the F-22 is jewelry but the F-35 design is a nightmare and we can speak about this IA on it, who is a nightmare for the pilots. Divest the F-35 budget to buy a lot of B-21 and full speed on the NGAD and space capacity like the X-37 B. Is it possible that Mr Will Roper could come back in the new administration ?That is not going to happen for a long while.
If enemy disable your system , all of your fleet is on the ground and you lose the war.I’ve got a crazy idea. What if USAF decided to go EFF it and go for all drone fleet? By that I mean even the NGAD type will be unmanned and rely entirely on AI for decision making and controlling CCA?
Soviet Union fucked up absorbing Vietnam lessons(from VVS view Vietnam went well, so they just doubled down on GCI vectoring).So fun they ended up crapping their pants an developing the Flankers.
Only congress can increase the NGAD/USAF budget. Alternatively, only Congress can allow the USAF to retire legacy platforms to fund NGAD.
Saddly , this time I m all right with Elon Musk , but not with his UAV conclusion , too much money have been spent on the F-35 for the result we have , the F-22 is jewelry but the F-35 design is a nightmare and we can speak about this IA on it, who is a nightmare for the pilots. Divest the F-35 budget to buy a lot of B-21 and full speed on the NGAD and space capacity like the X-37 B. Is it possible that Mr Will Roper could come back in the new administration ?
Given how the typical intrepid software codder of the infamous Silly-Con valley aren't even unable to stop the weekly attempts of mostly uneducated Chinese and Russian teenage hackers, I am not sure that the USAF will still bear that name after such move.I’ve got a crazy idea. What if USAF decided to go EFF it and go for all drone fleet? By that I mean even the NGAD type will be unmanned and rely entirely on AI for decision making and controlling CCA?
I thought about this for quite some time myself, dumping manned birds could turn out to be a costly mistake IMO. Sounds like the same touted story from TG2, but to your point on legacy systems, the hog and early gen 4's we still run could definitely be parted with so we can keep our edge (if it even exists).No one is dumping F-35s. Procurement might ultimately be trimmed, but that’s all. Elon seems to favor dumping all manned aircraft, so it seems to me you have nothing in common with his opinion. If you want to divest in aircraft to save budget for the NGAD, start with legacy aircraft - that is something USAF wants to do, but Congress will not allow.
Okay now you have no new 5 Gen Fighter going in while there is a rather large time frame until you get NGAD or even B-21 for the job those F-35 were meant to be (this means any existing B-21 order doesn't count as they are needed for other jobs). This leaves you with only 1 option and that is buying legacy planes... For more than 3 years atleast if Not more. In case you want to get them completly out of the USAF and USN it cost even more ignoring all other possible problems.Saddly , this time I m all right with Elon Musk , but not with his UAV conclusion , too much money have been spent on the F-35 for the result we have , the F-22 is jewelry but the F-35 design is a nightmare and we can speak about this IA on it, who is a nightmare for the pilots. Divest the F-35 budget to buy a lot of B-21 and full speed on the NGAD and space capacity like the X-37 B. Is it possible that Mr Will Roper could come back in the new administration ?
That would be silly. NGAD will be manned and CCA will be remotely piloted with "A.I." being nothing more than a deluxe autopilot.I’ve got a crazy idea. What if USAF decided to go EFF it and go for all drone fleet? By that I mean even the NGAD type will be unmanned and rely entirely on AI for decision making and controlling CCA?
Canceling the F-35 would be stupid. What's going to replace your thousands of 4th gen? "A.I. piloted" UCAVs? LOL!Saddly , this time I m all right with Elon Musk , but not with his UAV conclusion , too much money have been spent on the F-35 for the result we have , the F-22 is jewelry but the F-35 design is a nightmare and we can speak about this IA on it, who is a nightmare for the pilots. Divest the F-35 budget to buy a lot of B-21 and full speed on the NGAD and space capacity like the X-37 B. Is it possible that Mr Will Roper could come back in the new administration ?
The incoming administration already had a go once before and did nothing of the sort. It has already tried to negate the debt ceiling before even taking office, which is a pretty clear indication of intent.
On the brite side the CCAs seem to be on track to be produced quickly, cheaply, in new generations every couple years. The manned component is however a question mark.
Canceling the F-35 would be stupid. What's going to replace your thousands of 4th gen? "A.I. piloted" UCAVs? LOL!
I'm a very interested in seeing what munitions may be on the drawing board for CCA's. As has been discussed on this forum, smaller munitions allow transformative airframes. Perhaps the selections may include multiple vendors, designed for extremely robotic plants, with constant iterations allowed in the contract for reducing time and cost from the production cycle. The United States can do better.
I'd be really surprised if we don't get a CUDA/Peregine "halfRAAM", a BVRAAM that you can stick 2 per AMRAAM slot in a bay.IMO, only AIM-120 is viable strictly from an inventory point of view. I think it unlikely any new AAMs will be produced fast enough to be significant, outside AIM-260.
US haven't participated in a single air conflict where it didn't have numerical superiority in the air, ever."HalfRAAM' would make sense if you're killing other CCA's or targets that won't shoot back. If you are going after things that can shoot back and/or have CCA's of their own, then you need weapons that match or exceed what the other guy can put out against you since the red force here will have numerical superiority. Its either that, or you field very high end CCA's that can sneak closer which we don't see in either candidate solutions selected by the AF. So they will sort of have to carry JATM etc to be useful in that role (which is one of many roles the AF intends to use them for). For CCA's to be useful as 'shooters' and not merely adjunct sensors or EW etc, they have to be capable of killing and not merely getting killed in hopes of expending adversary missiles.
Remember that the HalfRAAMs supposedly have the same range as an AMRAAM but take up half the length."HalfRAAM' would make sense if you're killing other CCA's or targets that won't shoot back. If you are going after things that can shoot back and/or have CCA's of their own, then you need weapons that match or exceed what the other guy can put out against you since the red force here will have numerical superiority. Its either that, or you field very high end CCA's that can sneak closer which we don't see in either candidate solutions selected by the AF. So they will sort of have to carry JATM etc to be useful in that role (which is one of many roles the AF intends to use them for). For CCA's to be useful as 'shooters' and not merely adjunct sensors or EW etc, they have to be capable of killing and not merely getting killed in hopes of expending adversary missiles.
Remember that the HalfRAAMs supposedly have the same range as an AMRAAM but take up half the length.
So if your HalfRAAM carrier is sufficiently stealthy, you absolutely can shoot HalfRAAMs at a target that can shoot back.
Wouldn't Cuda be the "halfRAAM"?On the part in bold, what's so unique about 'halfRAAM' that allows it to match AIM-120 range in half the form factor and that prevents the AF to use a similar technology to get a AMRAAM sized profile that has double the range of HalfRAAM?
A highly stealthy CCA that can preserve 'first shot' or survive enough to get a kill and be a credible threat vs other red-platforms that may potentially be carrying weapons that can outstick it would be a good capability to have. I don't see that anywhere in terms of what's being proposed right now. Perhaps that will change down the road.
Yes its one of the designs industry has put forward at least publicly.Wouldn't Cuda be the "halfRAAM"?
US haven't participated in a single air conflict where it didn't have numerical superiority in the air, ever.
Probably this isn't much of a concern.
I'd be really surprised if we don't get a CUDA/Peregine "halfRAAM", a BVRAAM that you can stick 2 per AMRAAM slot in a bay.