USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA, ASFS news

Focus, padawan.

I'm talking specifically about the FAXX, the USN plane. MOP and ARRW are Air Force Programs, Navy has not publicly indicated any interest in those. ARRW definitely will not fit a carrier weapons elevator. The MOP is 20ft long all by itself, so it won't fit on a carrier either.

One of the jobs of FAXX is going to be long range strike. That's why I'm expecting bays at least the size of the old A-12.
I'm confused. You keep talking about the A-12 and when you do I assume you are referencing the Grumman A-12. I've found the references on this forum to a larger bay than is specified n Wiki but I see no reference to them being longer than what would be considered a normal length for an aircraft.

This graphic certainly doesn't suggest the length you are referencing.


I think the text is off on the internal payload, 8 MK84s but only ten Mk83s doesn't make sense. If the bays were long enough to fit MK84s two inline then it would fit a lot more than ten Mk83.

What appears to be more likely is the bay is wider and somewhat deep but not very long which makes the ten Mk83s achievable and the eight Mk84s a pipe dream but the four Mk84s as per the graphic the likely result. Given the other payload, two TSSAM, which were projected to only be 14 feet in length any A-12 bay longer than 15 feet seems a pipe dream.

Can I also suggest that assigning so much credibility to a design that never flew and was only ever a mockup probably means there were some assumptions made that didn't match with reality.
Unless your target is some 500 miles inside an A2AD bubble...
I suppose the JASSM XR variant gets you that additional range but I am in the camp of no internal carriage of JASSM. A better option would be the Andruil Barracuda 500 which is not as wide as a Mk84 but about the same length with a range of 500 miles. I expect Andruil could increase the width closer to Mk84 size and increase the range significantly. Barracuda maybe isn't as LO as the JASSM but would be a lot cheaper and far quicker to manufacture. That means the USN can build the F/A-XX bay around that 14 ft length which would match F-35.
 
I hope there was more in this analysis than the obvious point that there still needs to be manned fighters. If AF leadership was smart they would set the expectation that CCAs are an enabler for the manned component, not the other way around.

If $300 million is too expensive, what can you get for $200 million. Can you get broad spectrum stealth with a little bit more range, performance, and payload than the F-35. An adaptive engine, maybe conformal MFAs? Base the mission systems on an open architecture Block 4. If that is not possible then continue building the F-35 and fund the adaptive engine for increased range and power generation capacity.
That is in essence the trade-off Kendall and crew are trying to make now. What can they trade out and reduce cost while bridging the lost capability with CCA.
 
That is in essence the trade-off Kendall and crew are trying to make now. What can they trade out and reduce cost while bridging the lost capability with CCA.

All circles back to budget situation I suppose. But 300mill NGAD isnt even that far off from what the F-22 costed inflation adjusted back then. The plane isnt too expensive the budget we have is just too small period. And given ballooning interest rate payments its really hard to see the budget go up anytime soon in the coming decades unless major reform is done.
 
All circles back to budget situation I suppose. But 300mill NGAD isnt even that far off from what the F-22 costed inflation adjusted back then. The plane isnt too expensive the budget we have is just too small period.
The other issue is the demand signal. There simply isn't the confidence going forward by the services on what they can afford. For example Congress keeps preventing the USAF from retiring the aircraft they want to with the specific intent of transferring that funding to new platforms. Kendall's comments about getting to F-35 pricing levels doesn't help either.

And given ballooning interest rate payments its really hard to see the budget go up anytime soon in the coming decades unless major reform is done.
Yeah that interest payment that is essentially equivalent in size to the Defence budget would come in handy right now...
 
All circles back to budget situation I suppose. But 300mill NGAD isnt even that far off from what the F-22 costed inflation adjusted back then. The plane isnt too expensive the budget we have is just too small period. And given ballooning interest rate payments its really hard to see the budget go up anytime soon in the coming decades unless major reform is done.
There is no way that a $300 million NGAD survives or is bought in enough numbers to make a difference if it somehow did. We're going to have to do more with less. Fortunately, things are rapidly changing on multiple fronts, technology-wise.
Everyone would love to field an F-111 sized VLO interdiction/strike aircraft. But we can't afford that type of program, imo. What we can do is buy multiple different systems optimized in ways that enhance each other and let is do more with less.
 
The other issue is the demand signal. There simply isn't the confidence going forward by the services on what they can afford. For example Congress keeps preventing the USAF from retiring the aircraft they want to with the specific intent of transferring that funding to new platforms. Kendall's comments about getting to F-35 pricing levels doesn't help either.


Yeah that interest payment that is essentially equivalent in size to the Defence budget would come in handy right now...

Budget situation in general is too unpredictable right now for both DoD and congress. The fiscal pressure that we have right now is unprecedented. Now for some hopium, there are some pretty simple policies and reforms that CAN alleviate this to basically non-issue for some time and open up room for much higher DoD budget.

But whether congress has the balls or competency to enact such policies is leaning towards a no right now..
 
There is no way that a $300 million NGAD survives or is bought in enough numbers to make a difference if it somehow did. We're going to have to do more with less. Fortunately, things are rapidly changing on multiple fronts, technology-wise.
Everyone would love to field an F-111 sized VLO interdiction/strike aircraft. But we can't afford that type of program, imo. What we can do is buy multiple different systems optimized in ways that enhance each other and let is do more with less.

IMO if this is our thinking going into this we've basically already lost. China is going full steam ahead with nothing holding them back, we cannot compete like this simple as.
 
Kendall's comments about getting to F-35 pricing levels doesn't help either.
I don't think it's that crazy. There are a lot of things bells and whistle wise you don't necessarily need if another platform has them (F-35). If they focus on mature technology and rapid development (like NGB did), then I don't think it's impossible to get better range/endurance and weight-downrange than an F-35 for less money. Difficult, not impossible.
 
IMO if this is our thinking going into this we've basically already lost. China is going full steam ahead with nothing holding them back, we cannot compete like this simple as.
I think we lose if we invest trillions in another bleeding edge program we can't afford to develop or build in numbers or build fast enough to recapitalize if it comes to fruition.
 
I think we lose if we invest trillions in another bleeding edge program we can't afford to develop or build in numbers or build fast enough to recapitalize if it comes to fruition.

We can afford it and more but we just shoot ourselves in the foot is all
 
We really can't. Debt service is just going to get bigger and bigger.

There's policies we can enact to remedy that and allow bigger DoD budget, but congress is incapable as of now. Regardless the current situation and with the debt servicing ballooning, its looking kinda over
 
Debt service is just going to get bigger and bigger.

That can be avoided if those unwarranted and undeserved tax-cuts the top one-percent and mega-corporations got are cancelled along with them paying their fair share of the taxes.
 
That can be avoided if those unwarranted and undeserved tax-cuts the top one-percent and mega-corporations got are cancelled along with them paying their fair share of the taxes.
If we gathered up all our billionaires and took half of all their money collectively in one swoop, we have just shy of enough to pay debt service for this year and balance this year's deficit spending. Then next year, we'd probably have to take the other half.
 
That can be avoided if those unwarranted and undeserved tax-cuts the top one-percent and mega-corporations got are cancelled along with them paying their fair share of the taxes.

We can basically fix this issue until like 2050+ ish without increasing taxes on anyone making below 150k a year. Also optimizing/reforming the big three SS, medicare/medicaid would help a bunch too, there's a lot that can be done.

From what I remember Trump/GOP in 2016 proposed a pretty solid tax reform idea but dropped it in the final bill, they could bring it back again this time and that would actually go a long way and allow way more openings for govt revenue.
 
I don't think it's that crazy. There are a lot of things bells and whistle wise you don't necessarily need if another platform has them (F-35). If they focus on mature technology and rapid development (like NGB did), then I don't think it's impossible to get better range/endurance and weight-downrange than an F-35 for less money. Difficult, not impossible.
I've said previously that NGB is a bad example though. F-35 is where it is because of the investment in technology (and the build rate but that is a separate issue). If you don't do that then in my mind you are building a 5.5 Gen aircraft, not a 6th gen. If we looked at FCAS and GCAS when all is said and done I expect both will probably be 5.5 gen aircraft. Can lump the F/A-XX in that basket as well. If the USAF is serious about maintaining a capability edge then it needs the technology to go with it. Using mature technology does not get you the generational leap, pushing the technological envelope does, and that frankly costs money...
 
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Focus, padawan.

I'm talking specifically about the FAXX, the USN plane.
Which will be an attack oriented craft. And what is the joint service stealthy A-7, again?
MOP and ARRW are Air Force Programs, Navy has not publicly indicated any interest in those. ARRW definitely will not fit a carrier weapons elevator.
You know that beyond the fact that I was very *obviously* being sarcastic, PCA is specifically an USAF program and will carry USAF weapons last time I read about it.
One of the jobs of FAXX is going to be long range strike. That's why I'm expecting bays at least the size of the old A-12.
The N-ATA was conceived when the USN had no idea about the PGM revolution. They had it carrying 16 Mk82s in the primary bomb bay alone. That's at least 4 times the internal capacity of the F-35.

20 years later, we can see how one PGM can finish a sortie single-handedly. Do I see an IWB larger than the one on Fat Amy? Yes, but not by much.
 
I hope there was more in this analysis than the obvious point that there still needs to be manned fighters. If AF leadership was smart they would set the expectation that CCAs are an enabler for the manned component, not the other way around.

If $300 million is too expensive, what can you get for $200 million. Can you get broad spectrum stealth with a little bit more range, performance, and payload than the F-35. An adaptive engine, maybe conformal MFAs? Base the mission systems on an open architecture Block 4. If that is not possible then continue building the F-35 and fund the adaptive engine for increased range and power generation capacity.
Unless you can build an adaptive engine that will also work with the LiftFan in the F-35Bs, the F35s will all stay on the same engines. The XA100 and -101 were both canceled because they only worked on the F-35A and -C, not the -B.



I'm confused. You keep talking about the A-12 and when you do I assume you are referencing the Grumman A-12. I've found the references on this forum to a larger bay than is specified n Wiki but I see no reference to them being longer than what would be considered a normal length for an aircraft.

This graphic certainly doesn't suggest the length you are referencing.


I think the text is off on the internal payload, 8 MK84s but only ten Mk83s doesn't make sense. If the bays were long enough to fit MK84s two inline then it would fit a lot more than ten Mk83.

What appears to be more likely is the bay is wider and somewhat deep but not very long which makes the ten Mk83s achievable and the eight Mk84s a pipe dream but the four Mk84s as per the graphic the likely result. Given the other payload, two TSSAM, which were projected to only be 14 feet in length any A-12 bay longer than 15 feet seems a pipe dream.

Can I also suggest that assigning so much credibility to a design that never flew and was only ever a mockup probably means there were some assumptions made that didn't match with reality.
I'm almost positive that the text is a typo and the drawing is correct. 4x 2000lb bombs or 10x 1000lb; or more typically, 2x HARM and 2x 2000lb.

There's whole pages of discussions and rants about why the McDonnell-Douglas design was chosen and how there was major illegal bullshit that went down.

But the spec to carry 2x AAMs, 2x AARGMs, and 2x 2000lb booms was never questioned or argued about. That's a reasonable load for a long range deep interdictor.

In fact, there's specific discussion in the program notes that the "attack bay" sizes were chosen to hold a 2000lb bomb in one of the LGB configurations (length) and an AGM-84 series missile (depth). Today, we'd say it has to fit an NSM, LRASM, or Laser JDAM and an AARGM-ER. Bays long enough to load anything that will fit on the weapons elevators (~15ft plus clearance) and deep enough for whatever the fattest wingspan happens to be (was ~37" deep for carrying Harpoons, but that may need to change due to newer weapons). I would expect someone to rig a folding wing bit for any SM6s carried internally. It's already in production on the basic SM6s, I think they just left the control fins sprung all the way out for the AIM-174s.



I suppose the JASSM XR variant gets you that additional range but I am in the camp of no internal carriage of JASSM. A better option would be the Andruil Barracuda 500 which is not as wide as a Mk84 but about the same length with a range of 500 miles. I expect Andruil could increase the width closer to Mk84 size and increase the range significantly. Barracuda maybe isn't as LO as the JASSM but would be a lot cheaper and far quicker to manufacture. That means the USN can build the F/A-XX bay around that 14 ft length which would match F-35.
Whatever weapon, I don't care that much. It's about designing in the volume you need for your weapons into the plane.



There is no way that a $300 million NGAD survives or is bought in enough numbers to make a difference if it somehow did. We're going to have to do more with less. Fortunately, things are rapidly changing on multiple fronts, technology-wise.
Everyone would love to field an F-111 sized VLO interdiction/strike aircraft. But we can't afford that type of program, imo. What we can do is buy multiple different systems optimized in ways that enhance each other and let is do more with less.
The tyranny of distance still applies.

Some planes will have to fly 3000nmi from their safe bases to the fight, beat the bad guys, and then fly 3000nmi home. (2000nmi for the carrier planes)

I'm sure the companies are pulling their hair out trying to find a way to not have the second coming of the Vark.


The N-ATA was conceived when the USN had no idea about the PGM revolution. They had it carrying 16 Mk82s in the primary bomb bay alone. That's at least 4 times the internal capacity of the F-35.
Only by reason of poor racks/optimization on the F-35. It's technically a little less than double the capacity of the F-35. It's space for a pair of 2000lb bombs per bay instead of a single bomb per bay.

The "large numbers of lighter bombs" (I have notes on my computer saying 10x 1,000lb or 16x 500lb) is due to specialized racking, trying to pack as many small bombs into the bay as possible. And as we are seeing from Ukraine, sometimes you still need that.

I still expect someone to build a weapons rack that will let an F-35 carry at least 8x 500lb bombs in the bays, 4 in each, plus the AMRAAMs. Or however many Rockeyes you can stuff in the bays.



20 years later, we can see how one PGM can finish a sortie single-handedly. Do I see an IWB larger than the one on Fat Amy? Yes, but not by much.
And again, I'm talking about internal space for probably 4x AAMs and then 2x AARGM-ERs and 2x 2000lb (or similar sized missiles).


Yall want bay dimensions? Here ya go: 37" deep or so, 75" wide, and 181" long. each bay, assuming two bays. That's what I am expecting for the offensive bays in the FAXX. Internal space for 4x AMRAAM-sized weapons as well.
 
We can basically fix this issue until like 2050+ ish without increasing taxes on anyone making below 150k a year. Also optimizing/reforming the big three SS, medicare/medicaid would help a bunch too, there's a lot that can be done.

From what I remember Trump/GOP in 2016 proposed a pretty solid tax reform idea but dropped it in the final bill, they could bring it back again this time and that would actually go a long way and allow way more openings for govt revenue.
The big three don't affect the budget. They were already paid for by our taxes we used to pay directly into them. The problem is congress likes to loot them to give tax cuts to the wealthy and the wealthy don't want to pay it back. They can keep their greedy paws off of my earned benefits that I already paid for.
 
And again, I'm talking about internal space for probably 4x AAMs and then 2x AARGM-ERs and 2x 2000lb (or similar sized missiles).
A typical SEAD sortie loadout. Why couldn't those AARGMs be carried on wingmen. 2klbs weapon and 4x AAMs can be carried on an airframe not much bigger than the F-35.
Yall want bay dimensions? Here ya go: 37" deep or so, 75" wide, and 181" long. each bay, assuming two bays. That's what I am expecting for the offensive bays in the FAXX. Internal space for 4x AMRAAM-sized weapons as well.
75 inch is 3 LRASM. 2 bays? The lifting area for that would mean you are flying a straight up B-21 mini-me.
 
The tyranny of distance still applies.

Some planes will have to fly 3000nmi from their safe bases to the fight, beat the bad guys, and then fly 3000nmi home. (2000nmi for the carrier planes)

I'm sure the companies are pulling their hair out trying to find a way to not have the second coming of the Vark.
"Tyranny of distance" is PLA propaganda buzzword. Range has been a thing for like, forever.

Refueling is still possible in A2AD environment. In fact the MQ-25 was designed to a requirement approximating that.

Companies would love a second coming of Vark. Why the opposite? Imagine if Lockheed or MacBoing get the award. The board would be screaming delay, delay, keep them money going, leech off it. I could see another Brian Thompson but a much more professional hitman in that case. Or DoJ magik.
 
Just make a subsonic LO drone with a big bay and good cruise efficiency and call it a day. Maybe it has a expensive high performance munition in its bay, and maybe it doesn't, just have a lot of them and its tricky to shoot all of them down while mixing it up with escorts.

Also have a stealth tanker program and leverage the F-35 fleet.
 
A typical SEAD sortie loadout. Why couldn't those AARGMs be carried on wingmen. 2klbs weapon and 4x AAMs can be carried on an airframe not much bigger than the F-35.
And as we've seen, weapons themselves continue to get smaller. Sometimes less expensive, which would be ideal. Whatever the case, we currently don't have the industrial capacity for a real war. We couldn't ramp up production enough to last more than month. Too long of lead times.
That's what has to be fixed first. And it won't be with the next silver bullet.

We don't necessarily need a giant bay to lug medium range AAM. There's a host of existing SACM projects. Similar projects exist for most every type of missile.

peregrine-art-02-jpg.621753


Particularly for the Navy, smaller size is less weight, which is less structure, less gear, slower approach speeds, etc. It quickly spirals, as they have learned time and again.
 
"Tyranny of distance" is PLA propaganda buzzword. Range has been a thing for like, forever.

Refueling is still possible in A2AD environment. In fact the MQ-25 was designed to a requirement approximating that.

The Air Force is concerned by recent adversary long range weapons that it believes hold tankers at risk and this is the justification for NGAS.

Companies would love a second coming of Vark. Why the opposite? Imagine if Lockheed or MacBoing get the award. The board would be screaming delay, delay, keep them money going, leech off it. I could see another Brian Thompson but a much more professional hitman in that case. Or DoJ magik.

None of the Lockheed, Boeing, or NG proposals were F-111 sized. They were F-22 sized or smaller and significantly lighter when empty. Nobody, including DoD, wanted a larger aircraft. I have no idea where this “F-111l” idea came from.
 
None of the Lockheed, Boeing, or NG proposals were F-111 sized. They were F-22 sized or smaller and significantly lighter when empty. Nobody, including DoD, wanted a larger aircraft. I have no idea where this “F-111l” idea came from.

quellish, would like to request some disambiguation in what you're saying.

Specifically, it would be really helpful to know whether you're saying that the crewed PCA was *never* baselined as the very high MTOW, very high fuel fraction aircraft many of us expect.......or if you're saying that it once was, but had already been shrunk down to Raptor size several years ago, well before the Sentinel crisis emerged.

Wondering specifically if you think the F-22 size idea is the product of a compromise reached when the idea of two differently sized PCAs went out the window, or at the time some of those key technologies were reportedly punted down the road.
 
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None of the Lockheed, Boeing, or NG proposals were F-111 sized. They were F-22 sized or smaller and significantly lighter when empty. Nobody, including DoD, wanted a larger aircraft. I have no idea where this “F-111l” idea came from.
Then those adaptive engines must have half the SFC of the F119, or those proposals did not have the range claimed.

You want a plane with a 3000nmi combat radius? It's gonna be huge.
 
The Air Force is concerned by recent adversary long range weapons that it believes hold tankers at risk and this is the justification for NGAS.
Exactly. Rather than forcing unsustainable mission creep the USAF correctly identified that the ever growing A2AD bubble will necessitate "stealth everything/a heck lot of stealth" and adjust their vision for the future force accordingly.
None of the Lockheed, Boeing, or NG proposals were F-111 sized. They were F-22 sized or smaller and significantly lighter when empty. Nobody, including DoD, wanted a larger aircraft. I have no idea where this “F-111l” idea came from.
It's a recurring idea mentioned here that F/A-XX being a strike platform will be large enough to hold multiple standoff weapons internally. To clarify I am not involved in perpetuating this idea.
 
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Exactly. Rather than forcing unsustainable mission creep the USAF correctly identified that the ever growing A2AD bubble will necessitate "stealth everything/a heck lot of stealth" and adjust their vision for the future force accordingly.

It's a recurring idea mentioned here that F/A-XX being a strike platform will be large enough to hold multiple standoff weapons internally. To clarify I am not involved in perpetuating this idea.
FA/XX was air/air and fleet protection in primary mission, for strike they have the F-35 C.
 
FA/XX was air/air and fleet protection in primary mission, for strike they have the F-35 C.
Already addressed. Per quellish:
There is very similar testimony from the Navy which I can't locate right now, that in response to a question the Navy stated that they see NGAD/F/A-XX as a direct replacement for the Super Hornet, with a primary strike role and some small air-to-air role. Essentially the opposite of the USAF manned NGAD.

The Navy has been very clear than on F/A-XX air-to-air is not a priority.
 
Exactly. Rather than forcing unsustainable mission creep the USAF correctly identified that the ever growing A2AD bubble will necessitate "stealth everything/a heck lot of stealth" and adjust their vision for the future force accordingly.
I would question whether "stealth everything" e.g. NGAS or NGAL in particular is actually a sustainable approach on cost grounds. To compare KC-46 and MQ-25 as some "no stealth" vs "moderate at best stealth" options then there's a massive gulf (10x) in offload/range for only 10% difference in unit cost.
 

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