Since the reason they've been touting is that they nees a reevaluation of priorities in requirements and what they nees in fighting in the Pacific, I think it's quite clear that F-22, the plane which they deemed inadequate for those requirements, wouln't cut it.If they're not progressing with NGAD, they need to build more F-22s in the meantime.
Going by how thinga are progressing, I'd say it would take well over a decade at the earliest.NGAD is almost a decade away.
First part is definitwey true geography-wise, but from operations perspective, safe-zone for the US and allied forces shrank, whereas Chinese are of operatiom/their "bastion" significantly grew.The Pacific Ocean didn't get larger over the last few years. The threat from the Chinese has remained constant.
The second part I definitely can't agree. Their A2AD capabilities as well as C4ISR within the theatre have constantly improved, none-stop, every year.
Though I'd agree that the chanhe is incremental, not revolutionary, and it's not something the USAF would not have been able to anticipate and change their minds on NGAD all of the sudden.