USAF/US NAVY 6th Generation Fighter Programs - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA, ASFS news

I personally like the Lockheed NGTF and Rodrigo Avella’s “Manitou” concept the best, and then I remain a big fan of the YF-23 RTA as well.

(While I’m a Raptor fan, I kinda have a thing for the Black Widow…)

Configurationally, though, it’s pretty tough to say. Most of the key sixth-gen technologies we know about (big data, multispectral imaging, adaptive engines, manned-unmanned teaming, electronic attack, AI, maybe hypersonic munitions someday, maybe directed energy defenses against incoming missiles someday) don’t have any straightforward, obvious implications for the general shape of the aircraft. Outside of rudiments like twr, lift/drag, wing loading, x-band signature, or the area rule, the greater importance of thermal signature management and low frequency radar signature are probably the main things driving shape, and a flat shape with a good mixing of exhaust air is probably best from a signature standpoint.

This is where I think Rodrigo’s Manitou is interesting. It’s tailless for (presumably) subsonic cruise, and maybe even for static supercruise, but it has recessed, deployable fold-up control surfaces for times when your signature management has failed and you want maneuver kinematics instead, especially supersonically. I kind of doubt the practicality of this vs just having a butterfly/pelikan type tail, but it is intriguing. For people eager to interpret statements about the NGAD program setting records as being about aircraft performance rather than just about the schedule and design process, it offers an answer: supersonic tailless flight.


Obviously, supersonic tailless flight might be possible with just an X-36 like configuration. But maximum intensity dogfighting with no tail at supersonic speeds would be a giant step even beyond that. Manitou offers an exciting compromise that theoretically might let you have your cake and eat it too.

That said, if I had to bet, I would vote for Lockheed’s NGTF as probably the most likely template. I don’t feel like I have a good sense of how big the aircraft needs to be, because I don’t know what its range is supposed to be, but NGTF is my choice. I know we are now in an era where real concepts are not shared with the public as freely as they were in the Cold War or the 90s, and that comparison to those eras is more likely to lead to overconfidence than knowledge, but NGTF seems like the most practical thing I have to go on.
I think his concept is a really good guess what NGAD might look like. Depending on the trade off between maneuverability and broadband LO, I wouldn’t be surprised to see inlets on top much like the NG NGAD concepts seen in the past. I like the design cues from the F-23 in this artwork.
 
I think his concept is a really good guess what NGAD might look like. Depending on the trade off between maneuverability and broadband LO, I wouldn’t be surprised to see inlets on top much like the NG NGAD concepts seen in the past. I like the design cues from the F-23 in this artwork.

If you like that one, I bet you’d like his “Caracal” as well, which is also a YF-23 inspired delta, but more angular in planform and featuring…uhhhh…would you call it a cranked arrow with an anhedral crank applied to that former crank?

Plus vertical fins and a more well-like exhaust, but still with below-wing inlets.


He does have some overwing inlet designs, but they’re not as strong efforts on his part, imo. One Boeing F-X like, one kinda like an X-47A but with a comical exaggeration to it, and another.

Was the NG overwing design you had in mind the following one? I think I could imagine that pretty readily.

 
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After stealth became the rage in the 90s when ATB & ATF were revealed, concepts released for the JSF competition would actually look very close to the real thing!
One thing to consider would be the lineage of JSF as a continous program which dates back to the late 80s. The original designs during the JAST and CALF periods, or a bit further back during the ASTOVL periods were obviously quite different to what the JSF eventually become.

One technology I see a real possibility of being implemented to the NGAD is the flexible/morphing seemless wing without any separate flaps or ailerons, akin to NASA's ACTE or other similar tech demos, a technology which we are not really alien of, but hasn't been showcased en mass. Apart from its aerodynamic advamtages, I see major benefits for reducing radar signatures as well. The technology itself have come a long way with noticeable improvements in the recent years.
 
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Once again, let me state, the mission defines the aircraft, not the other way around. One of the most secret aspects of aircraft development are the actual mission profiles. Find out what they are and we'll be able to determine a lot of features of the designs; wing area, size, etc. Notice, we have all seen the F-22, YF-23, YF-22, but we still don't know much about the flight profile mission requirements. That's because they would reveal too much about their actual performance. But try to figure some of those numbers out and you'll be able to get some basic ideas of it's layout. If it's going to primarily supercruise, it isn't going to have an F-35 style trapezoidal wing, it's going to have a modified delta or diamond wing. Etc.
 
Once again, let me state, the mission defines the aircraft, not the other way around. One of the most secret aspects of aircraft development are the actual mission profiles. Find out what they are and we'll be able to determine a lot of features of the designs; wing area, size, etc. Notice, we have all seen the F-22, YF-23, YF-22, but we still don't know much about the flight profile mission requirements. That's because they would reveal too much about their actual performance. But try to figure some of those numbers out and you'll be able to get some basic ideas of it's layout. If it's going to primarily supercruise, it isn't going to have an F-35 style trapezoidal wing, it's going to have a modified delta or diamond wing. Etc.
Large mission range has been described a key factor for any pacific scenario, departing from the F-22 requirement of exclusively dominating european theatre. I think this is going to be the most significant contributor to the design of NGAD. The increased focus on adaptive engines already points towards that.
 
I think his concept is a really good guess what NGAD might look like. Depending on the trade off between maneuverability and broadband LO, I wouldn’t be surprised to see inlets on top much like the NG NGAD concepts seen in the past. I like the design cues from the F-23 in this artwork

Why do you think it will look like that? No offense, but this has already been settled a few pages back in the thread:
https://www.artstation.com/artwork/J9JdVa what do you think about this design is it something real or just art station ? It look a lot like the Amarillo 2014 sighting.... And the USAF 73th birthday logo.
It's unofficial concept art, although the USAF (and I think at some point also Lockheed) did license Rodrigo's work. He's from Argentina though, so the chances of him having some secret insight to what NGAD looks like is nil.
 
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If I had to go for a design purely based on looks I'd favor that Lockheed concept they shown off awhile back which bore some resemblance to a combination of the F-22 and F-23.
 
Range and broadband stealth seem to be the two requirements driving the physical size and shape.
 
I think his concept is a really good guess what NGAD might look like. Depending on the trade off between maneuverability and broadband LO, I wouldn’t be surprised to see inlets on top much like the NG NGAD concepts seen in the past. I like the design cues from the F-23 in this artwork

Why do you think it will look like that? No offense, but this has already been settled a few pages back in the thread:
https://www.artstation.com/artwork/J9JdVa what do you think about this design is it something real or just art station ? It look a lot like the Amarillo 2014 sighting.... And the USAF 73th birthday logo.
It's unofficial concept art, although the USAF (and I think at some point also Lockheed) did license Rodrigo's work. He's from Argentina though, so the chances of him having some secret insight to what NGAD looks like is nil.
Quite frankly I don’t read every single thread or post. Further, while concept art is just that, driving requirements for broadband LO and long range & large payloads does narrow down the kind of configurations that make sense. In end it’s just my opinion and I’ll add them as I feel like anyone else.
 
@BDF Sure, sure, i'm not bashing your opinion or anything, just genuinely curious about yours. I guess not everyone is a lurker like me. The only gripe i have with that design is that it makes use of Northrop ESAV's planform, but the fuselage looks like a modernized YF-23. Despite many people wanting to see it resurrected, it makes no sense using a 30yr old design as baseline for your future fighter, and computing power has advanced a long way since then.
 
I guess I don't fret over minutia. I like the aesthetics of his artwork but I'd be surprised if looks really close to what he came up with. Personally I believe it'll end up looking like a masonry trowel in planform with a nearly flat bottom, dorsal intakes and fuselage. Think Boeing's "F-X" concept art blended with NG's concept. That all being said it could all be complete subterfuge and it will look a lot more conventional that we believe.
 
@BDF Sure, sure, i'm not bashing your opinion or anything, just genuinely curious about yours. I guess not everyone is a lurker like me. The only gripe i have with that design is that it makes use of Northrop ESAV's planform, but the fuselage looks like a modernized YF-23. Despite many people wanting to see it resurrected, it makes no sense using a 30yr old design as baseline for your future fighter, and computing power has advanced a long way since then.
Aerodynamics is aerodynamics regardless of time. Same for the principles of stealth. Perhaps the Northrop design just needs a little fine tuning. It certainly ain't gonna look like a UFO and i don't buy into the marshmallow supersonic flying wing. They aren't going to throw away the ability to do some twisting and turning when it needs to. The f35 which was designed a decade later is even more older looking than the f22 and ditches a lot of what we know about edge alignment and LO. Arguably the 23 was ahead of its time. Those flying wing artists concepts are more suited to what the fb22 was supposed to do than air superiority
 
Okay guys, to close this circle of speculation, let me tell you beforehand that is not my intention to bait you with what i'm going to drop. Mods, if my post breaks the rules, feel free to delete it. Apologies.
Now, i know ATS is not held here in high esteem as a reliable source of trustworthy content in what concerns to aircraft projects thanks to being a website of disparate conspiracy theories. I lurk there too, frequently keeping an eye on the Aircraft Projects section and i saw that comment the day it was posted, but that content is aging with each day.. So i'll limit to post it here now(comments blacked out due to being irrelevant):

By user @Ghoul from abovetopsecret.com: https://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread1227765/pg33#pid26200769

Screenshot 2022-01-26 at 23-26-52 6th Generation Fighter Meta Thread, page 33.png

These are two different aircraft depictions, that i had never seen before either. I'm surprised to be honest, yes, there are many concepts with dorsal intakes, but some major differences are present on this one. it resembles more an A-12 planform lookalike with nearly the same flying dorito shape, F-35 cockpit?? (probably what using off shelf components to reduce costs was about) and what i first thought to be split rudders? Maybe exhaust extensions to minimize IR signature given they seem to be located at the far end. It doesn't look capable of reaching terrible high speeds either ,so subsonic, like the F-117, imo.

On the second, clearly the manned fighter component, Northrop's ESAV from the 2016 ad comes to mind. Despite the similarity, the wings have a lower sweep, are smaller and set further back, and a simpler, diamond trailing edge, without that overengineered arrangement of rudders at the rear

ng-6th-gen-fighter-1614637567.jpg

Back in 2020 there were talks of at least 2 X-planes being tested, it's strongly implied Lockheed reached the demo stage, since the aircraft depicted took off from a Northrop facility according to Steve, it appears so did they, . Or maybe not, because like our friend said, it could be related to another program aswell.
There was a proposed aircraft of unknown status that predates most 6th gen concepts and matches the outline seen in the render more closely. This one:

ng2007stav-jpg.21674
pi6188ec791.jpg

The inlet bump blocks the view from upfront, so we can't see the back, and given that the only feature visible is a light on bottom, that means it breathes from top too and rules out being some type of Aurora or fastmover.

My bets would be:

1- Northrop NGAD PAV answer to Lockheed
2- An All-X Plane purposely built to validate the viability of supersonic tailless flight(as part of NGAD, not related to STAV)
3- The other way around (STAV)

And this is Steve's blog, but outside the announcement of the Demo flying, there is no mention of his sightings, and no trace of the image either. Reverse searching on Google only points back to ATS, so i don't know what to think.

 
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I spent hours trying to find a photo on ATS from the last 3 years, it was taken with a telescope possibly plant 42? It was a twin with vertical stabs, wasn't an F-22 and obviously not an F-35. (hazy on details due to atmospheric conditions at that range)

The tails were well canted, so that rules out F-15 and nozzles were too far apart to be a Hornet.

Anyone know what im on about? If it was out in the open at that distance dummy vertical stabs would be a good idea.

I figured it was a 6th gen demonstrator, what else could it have been?
 
I spent hours trying to find a photo on ATS from the last 3 years, it was taken with a telescope possibly plant 42? It was a twin with vertical stabs, wasn't an F-22 and obviously not an F-35. (hazy on details due to atmospheric conditions at that range)

The tails were well canted, so that rules out F-15 and nozzles were too far apart to be a Hornet.

Anyone know what im on about? If it was out in the open at that distance dummy vertical stabs would be a good idea.

I figured it was a 6th gen demonstrator, what else could it have been?
Maybe this is what you're looking for?: https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/mcdonnnell-douglas-f-18a-d-legacy-hornet.6010/post-258368
 
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I spent hours trying to find a photo on ATS from the last 3 years, it was taken with a telescope possibly plant 42? It was a twin with vertical stabs, wasn't an F-22 and obviously not an F-35. (hazy on details due to atmospheric conditions at that range)

The tails were well canted, so that rules out F-15 and nozzles were too far apart to be a Hornet.

Anyone know what im on about? If it was out in the open at that distance dummy vertical stabs would be a good idea.

I figured it was a 6th gen demonstrator, what else could it have been?
Maybe this is what you're looking for?: https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/mcdonnnell-douglas-f-18a-d-legacy-hornet.6010/post-258368
It was taken at ground level from the rear, there were two side by side. I'm going to start PMing.

So I don't derail too much anyone ever think the A-12 II looked close to what 6th is supposed to look like? And it's what 30 years old now?!
 

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I spent hours trying to find a photo on ATS from the last 3 years, it was taken with a telescope possibly plant 42? It was a twin with vertical stabs, wasn't an F-22 and obviously not an F-35. (hazy on details due to atmospheric conditions at that range)

The tails were well canted, so that rules out F-15 and nozzles were too far apart to be a Hornet.

Anyone know what im on about? If it was out in the open at that distance dummy vertical stabs would be a good idea.

I figured it was a 6th gen demonstrator, what else could it have been?
Maybe this is what you're looking for?: https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/mcdonnnell-douglas-f-18a-d-legacy-hornet.6010/post-258368
It was taken at ground level from the rear, there were two side by side. I'm going to start PMing.

So I don't derail too much anyone ever think the A-12 II looked close to what 6th is supposed to look like? And it's what 30 years old now?!
And we were all supposed to be driving jellybean shaped cars by 2000 too. There are a lot of supposed too's. Flying wings are fine if you don't need to turn. Best left to bombers and space shuttles. No way in heck is the new fighter going to be a wing unless the usaf is getting out of the fighter business.
 
Once again, let me state, the mission defines the aircraft, not the other way around. One of the most secret aspects of aircraft development are the actual mission profiles. Find out what they are and we'll be able to determine a lot of features of the designs; wing area, size, etc. Notice, we have all seen the F-22, YF-23, YF-22, but we still don't know much about the flight profile mission requirements. That's because they would reveal too much about their actual performance. But try to figure some of those numbers out and you'll be able to get some basic ideas of it's layout. If it's going to primarily supercruise, it isn't going to have an F-35 style trapezoidal wing, it's going to have a modified delta or diamond wing. Etc.
Large mission range has been described a key factor for any pacific scenario, departing from the F-22 requirement of exclusively dominating european theatre. I think this is going to be the most significant contributor to the design of NGAD. The increased focus on adaptive engines already points towards that.

A lambda wing or cranked kite layout may be favoured if long endurance / range is a requirement of high importance (high aspect ratio / high aerodynamic efficiency).
 
And we were all supposed to be driving jellybean shaped cars by 2000 too. There are a lot of supposed too's. Flying wings are fine if you don't need to turn. Best left to bombers and space shuttles. No way in heck is the new fighter going to be a wing unless the usaf is getting out of the fighter business.

Actually I could easily see a tailless design that simply sacrifices maneuverability for range and broad band low RCS. I think that's how badly the USAF wants to extend range, payload, and penetration survivability. Particularly taken with the 'family of systems' mantra, it isn't hard to imagine A2A capable fighter bomber carrying BVR weapons with networked loyal wingmen working in front as semi disposable sensor platforms and dog fighters. Something like the XQ-58 could still have a thousand mile combat radius as an escort for just several million. I also wouldn't be surprised if some exotic control system like a warping wing or active flow was used to enhance maneuverability sans tail, or perhaps plane old thrust vectoring.
 
And we were all supposed to be driving jellybean shaped cars by 2000 too. There are a lot of supposed too's. Flying wings are fine if you don't need to turn. Best left to bombers and space shuttles. No way in heck is the new fighter going to be a wing unless the usaf is getting out of the fighter business.

Actually I could easily see a tailless design that simply sacrifices maneuverability for range and broad band low RCS. I think that's how badly the USAF wants to extend range, payload, and penetration survivability. Particularly taken with the 'family of systems' mantra, it isn't hard to imagine A2A capable fighter bomber carrying BVR weapons with networked loyal wingmen working in front as semi disposable sensor platforms and dog fighters. Something like the XQ-58 could still have a thousand mile combat radius as an escort for just several million. I also wouldn't be surprised if some exotic control system like a warping wing or active flow was used to enhance maneuverability sans tail, or perhaps plane old thrust vectoring.
I definitely agree with this. I foresee the "fighter" being more of a quarterback with a large payload of missiles, while retaining great sensor ability itself. I think each fighter will have a squadron of UAVs teamed with it, some caring payload, some sensors, some EW, heck some could even be highly maneuverable for dogfighting.
 
That is a portable tent with an "aircraft" painted on it.
Including a painted shadow that matches the real shadow of the tent? Possible of course, but why would they put out a tent with an aircraft painted on top of it out on the taxiway? We are easily fooled, but the satellite analysts of intelligence agencies are not so easily fooled…

It seems more like an unfinished tent to me, where they still have to put on the tarpaulin. But if that was the case, you would expect cars and people around it - and there aren’t any.
 
Doesn't really look like it would be a good shape for a low RCS design, but then that wouldn't exclude it being test platform for systems that ultimately were going into a more stealthy airframe at a later date. No telling what it is, but I agree with the articles assessment that it seems as likely as not to have been left out in the open intentionally.
 
That is a portable tent with an "aircraft" painted on it.
Including a painted shadow that matches the real shadow of the tent? Possible of course, but why would they put out a tent with an aircraft painted on top of it out on the taxiway? We are easily fooled, but the satellite analysts of intelligence agencies are not so easily fooled…

It seems more like an unfinished tent to me, where they still have to put on the tarpaulin. But if that was the case, you would expect cars and people around it - and there aren’t any.
It is for sending a message they intentionaly left the shelter without tarpaulin, look the picture there is the shadow of the front of the shelter but without the top, just for the satellites.
 
And we were all supposed to be driving jellybean shaped cars by 2000 too. There are a lot of supposed too's. Flying wings are fine if you don't need to turn. Best left to bombers and space shuttles. No way in heck is the new fighter going to be a wing unless the usaf is getting out of the fighter business.

Actually I could easily see a tailless design that simply sacrifices maneuverability for range and broad band low RCS. I think that's how badly the USAF wants to extend range, payload, and penetration survivability. Particularly taken with the 'family of systems' mantra, it isn't hard to imagine A2A capable fighter bomber carrying BVR weapons with networked loyal wingmen working in front as semi disposable sensor platforms and dog fighters. Something like the XQ-58 could still have a thousand mile combat radius as an escort for just several million. I also wouldn't be surprised if some exotic control system like a warping wing or active flow was used to enhance maneuverability sans tail, or perhaps plane old thrust vectoring.
I definitely agree with this. I foresee the "fighter" being more of a quarterback with a large payload of missiles, while retaining great sensor ability itself. I think each fighter will have a squadron of UAVs teamed with it, some caring payload, some sensors, some EW, heck some could even be highly maneuverable for dogfighting.
What's the point of it in the first place then?

I mean, everyone expects next gen to be large BVR birds for 60 years by now (at very least since XF-108) - and it just doesn't happen, again and again, for multiple reasons.
 
The point would be man in the loop and payload. Yes, I think it will be a missileer or whatever they called that design philosophy. If you can have the UAVs pull the hard Gs and do the dirty work for less, maybe the technology has finally caught up with the concept. In any case, the shear distances of the pacific and vulnerability of fixed air strips pretty much ensures that any business as usual fighter/air dominance design will be a dead end.
 
Responding to several comments...

As I understand it, a full scale flight demonstrator does not a prototype make. Tacit Blue was a flight demonstrator. I don't think we can expect this flight demonstrator to look anything like the future NGAD aircraft.

Skunk works is also at Plant 42, as well as NG, so I'm not sure how one states something took off from NGs runway.

It seems to me that I recall reading NGAD was to escort stealth bombers and enhance their survivability by dominating the airspace. It's quite plausible a manned B21 variant might fit the bill exceedingly well considering the performance and payload enhancements possible w drones. In my scenario, NGAD loiters at 60k ft plus and provides line of sight control for many squadrons of drones. A flight of NGAD's networked together at significant intervals would command an exceptional area. Especially important if your premise includes satellite disruption. This actually makes more sense to me than a traditional fighter with greater range and payload.

If they were to do this I hope they follow the SpaceX development model. If they use the traditional acquisition process it will fail, miserably. Something like this needs rapid iteration of software and the ability to fail spectacularly along the way. And please, please don't give something like this to Boeing. This would be a good "Skunk Works"-style project; single leader, engineers and trades side by side, restrained oversight, general specs, specific timeline.
 
As I understand it, a full scale flight demonstrator does not a prototype make.

These are arbitrary definitions (when used by program officials or political appointees) as I haven't seen actual DOD descriptions or classifications for this program anywhere (to help distinguish b/w X or Y plane designations not to mention the "E" series designation that they've likely used :) ). Unless we have an actual program description of the effort we don't know what they've been working on and what they've put together or flown. Little we know, tells us that that they've been discussing "NGAD" with industry, and awarding some early contracts since about 2012 which is a fair amount of time to achieve several key deliverables from the prototyping effort.
 
The point would be man in the loop and payload.
That's reinventing some sort of intermediate AWACS on a less suitable platform.
For both the man in the loop and payload with stand-off munitions, there already are more suitable platforms in service than the one which is often being proposed:

-AWACS themselves (perfect cruisers, lots of operators in good working conditions, 360 deg sensor/comm coverage, lots of power);
-Stand-off big payload carriers(jet transport airplanes);
-Intermediate large external payload carriers (updated 4th generation fighters) - which are also capable of covering almost full spectrum of fighter missions in the first place.
Stand-off drones, stand-in(fighter) drones, and proxy delivery systems (say, Darpa longshot) cover for their downsides just fine.

The problem is (1)at least doing everything previous gen could, (2)doing something those can't do already, and (3)doing it better.
Otherwise, I personally don't see the point of doing something radically new. It's replacing one set of advantages and disadvantages with another one.

If drones replace stand-in manned fighter well enough for a price point low enough, or stand-in manned fighter is too unsurvivable no matter the tech - it doesn't need to exist.

Yes, I think it will be a missileer or whatever they called that design philosophy. If you can have the UAVs pull the hard Gs and do the dirty work for less, maybe the technology has finally caught up with the concept.
Missileer is a 60-year old philosophy, which was thwarted by the fact it can do little more than launch big missiles from afar: F6D didn't die because F8U couldn't pull hard enough yet - it died because it was a single trick pony.
There are better platforms for cruising and sensors, and less specialized platforms can carry big external things as well.
Yes, missileer could carry somewhat better - but this wasn't a good enough reason for a plane even when there were more than a dozen fighter designs in service simultaneously.
 
I think the USAF wants a long ranged, large payload, manned component with very capable sensors and communications that is survivable in a hostile environment (read: broadband stealth) while still having fighter like maneuverability and speed. There is nothing off the shelf that fills that niche. While I do think the requirements likely deprioritize speed and maneuverability, I suspect a subsonic design like B-21 is a non starter. I suspect super cruise is an explicit requirement (though we probably won't know until IOC). Nothing in the current inventory fits that bill.

Presumably now a days an aircraft could carry either air ground or air to air ordnance depending on the mission. But on the other hand the USAF has always made space for a dedicated anti air platform (F-15, F-22) and only later adapted the designs for air to ground ordnance. While I suspect NGAD would be capable of carrying other ordnance, I suspect only A2A weapons would be integrated initially and that it would indeed be a one trick pony.
 
Yeah I echo Josh's ideas. I think the manned component will be the primary long range shooter, sitting behind the drone swarms which serve as sensor nets primarily and shooters secondarily. The manned component supplements and compliments their sensors and reacts to threats as necessary. It shoots first then the swarms will constitute a clean up crew that shoots any leakers. This gives the manned component a stand off sanctuary where its more difficult to detect (because it's further back from the enemy's sensors) but can still cover the battle space with its supersonic persistence. Now admittedly I could have the primary/secondary shooters backwards.

I can imagine the tactical problems this kind of solution might cause a enemy and dilemmas it creates. Imagine a OCA sweep whereby a flight of 4 NGADs sweeps in and then plants their respective swarms around enemy airfields. This of course requires swarms with similar LO characteristics as the manned platform so I'm not sure how that fits into the attritable to survivable calculus of the program.

Back to the picture at A-51, I'm not at all convinced that we're seeing what we think we're seeing. I have a very difficult time believing that those folks are that incompetent to allow a overflight catch something in the open like that.
 
My image of the UAV component, based on what little we have in open source, is that it will primarily act as a passive sensor net and and when necessary stand in jammer array for the manned platform. The manned platform in turn will have a large number of internally stored BVR AAMs that it can use against any targets the UAVs find, along with a beefy AESA radar to refine target tracks and attempt target ID. I think at least some of the escorting UAVs will also be armed with small WVR missiles (Cuda, Perigin, etc) and be expected to battle any suddenly appearing targets (opponent fifth generation or greater) or targets that make it past the initial BVR engagement. I'd also expect at least one of the UAVs to fly close formation to act as an almost full sized decoy if necessary. This arrangement would generally preclude serious dogfighting by the manned component, though supercruise would be desirable as way of either closing with targets (and adding energy to BVR weapons) or opening range when the opponent gets too close.
 
I think the USAF wants a long ranged, large payload, manned component with very capable sensors and communications that is survivable in a hostile environment (read: broadband stealth) while still having fighter like maneuverability and speed.

Sounds a bit familiar as a concept. ;)
Lockheed%20CL-2016%20ATF%20Concept%2012%20623.jpg


Reasonable size is a huge value for a fighter by itself (infrastructure considerations)- especially for a fighter that will almost 100% require dispersal on a theater fully within IRBM range.
Operating from even further out is a doubtful proposal - ratio of time on station to time in transit becomes a problem - and that's apart from stretching human capabilities. Furthermore, it may be a political problem - you can move your forces from out of the range - sure, but can the US move its allies out? What to do if, say, the protected objective is more valuable than the fighters themselves - will they have to give it up and keep the range regardless?
Finally, economics still work the traditional way to some degree: larger fighter=more expensive outright, more service and logistical problems later.

survivable in a hostile environment (read: broadband stealth)
This in particular bothers me.
If you pay for deep broadband stealth, you probably intend to go in - the whole point of this tech is in the ability to come closer to the enemy without him knowing. Coming closer, in turn, not only makes you more survivable, but makes your weapons deadlier, and lowers required capability of those weapons; the closer you can come undetected - the better.

If your fighter force doesn't really plan to go in - why bother? Sitting further out behind the UCAV screen, within friendly AWACS coverage doesn't really require stealth. It can talk with UCAVs no worse than big stealthy a/c, and its sensors can be just as good.
External carriage is the way to go - cheap integration, any size until your aircraft can physically take off with it, much smaller (cheaper, more adaptable) airframe for the given performance. Like it's pretty normal for modern non-stealth fighters to carry external loads comparable in weight and bulkiness to the aircraft itself - fitting that much inside a supersonic aircraft will lead designers to something B-1 - sized.

The additional factor here is that US is developing a heavy, broadband, all-aspect stealth aircraft capable of carrying very large missiles anyways: it's the b-3. Sure, it's subsonic - but it's ready to fly, and there will be quite a few of them(maybe as many as 160).

A2A weapons would be integrated initially and that it would indeed be a one trick pony.
By one-trick pony i didn't mean just "A2A" - in later 1950s single-role A/C were still OK for the USN (and still were so more than a decade later). I meant sole capability to launch big missiles from afar, i.e. being capable essentially of one single mission - being a loitering interceptor against known heavy bombers. And...nothing else. No other mission, no redundancy (main weapon system gets countered - what then?).
But A2a is a lot of missions - from OfCA to air policing to escorting SAR missions. Great many of them can't be done from afar, nor they can be delegated to a drone(s).

To summ things up:
As of 2022, observers expected next US fighter to be a "big, large, fast, long-range missile thrower" for at least 4 times.
Every single time it was something else - not because big&large wasn't achievable(it was), but because it doesn't really work in too many cases.
IMHO - next US fighter will indeed be broadband stealth, but it won't go far over the current size of fighters (which already isn't small).
It, again, will be much longer-ranged than the raptor(which, frankly speaking, probably isn't hard) - but will try to achieve that in available size.
It will try to be as agile as possible within other requirements - i.e. it won't be primary consideration, but it it will feature in priorities list.
Finally - bay size won't exceed what is already available on the 5th generation too much - it isn't that far from the practical limit in the first place. Instead, focus will be placed on smaller medium-ranged munitions and DEW - as things that allow stealthy fighter with no external carriage to realize their potential to the fullest possible degree.
 
When i read everything everyone wants to include in ngad, it brings back worries of the f111. The usaf won't make that mistake of one aircraft for all situations and scenarios and missions. That's why they speak of a family of systems.

Pick the mission set that requires a human in the cockpit and that my guess is the manned component of a family of systems. I think an extremely (for a fighter) long ranged missilier that penetrates deep into hostile airspace where everything else flying has a high probability of being a hostile can be done unmanned with broadband stealth and be a supersonic "wing" with just good enough maneuverability. It can also double as deep strike and SEAD and longv ranged patrols. I envision something like 200 copies for this system.

If there is (and there will be) a mission set that involves potentially getting in close and turning and yanking and banking then that is the manned component with appropriate weight and thrust and aerodynamic shaping. Shouldn't be much bigger than raptor and carry an additional 3500lbs go juice. This should be the most numerous member of the family..... Hopefully no less than 400 copies.

A loyal wingman drone that increases the effective magazine capacity of the manned component should also be numerous.

Just my worthless $0.02.
 
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One thing that, I think, is often under-estimated is the scope of the battlespace. In West Germany the density of combat would limit the ability to control engagements, and the main concerns are things like avoiding fratricide, countermeasures, and having enough airframes (pushing the weight down).

However, in environments with either much more geographic space (e.g. oceans) or much fewer aircraft involved... the density of combat goes down:

Having superior supercruise efficiency and superior sensors can allow one to pick the engagement and only fight on favourable terms. Having stealth can lower the effective engagement range of the enemy, and open gaps in their defenses to exploit. So, a supercruising stealthy platform with powerful sensors becomes very desirable - and that pushes the weight up.

The main reason to retain maneuverability is to assist in defeating long-range SAMS (and BVRAAMs) if one isn't able to defeat them via stealth and countermeasures (which may be much more effective at these longer ranges anyway).

So I do find the idea of a kind-of supercruising stealthy awacs with stand-off weapons quite plausible, as well as the idea that loyal wingman's grandkids could largely replace the JSF role.

Note: If weapon laden enemy strike aircraft need to be intercepted they can probably be destroyed (or forced to abort their attack) using BVR weapons only - given that they'd have more trouble defending against long range missiles compared to lightly laden interceptors.
 
Maneuverability is going to be less important I think, similar to the decreased emphasis on agility the F-35 had versus the F-22, but speed and supercruise ability should be seen as important along with range.

The F-111 was brought up by rooster but in several ways (size, range, payload) it probably should be a lot like the F-111 minus the "have it do everything" approach.
 

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