Kat Tsun
eeeeeeeeeeeeeee
- Joined
- 16 June 2013
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Troops and ammunition, mostly. The reason the Kwantung Army collapsed to the Soviets so rapidly was because their best battalions had been deployed to the Home Islands in wake of the anticipated assault by Allied troops, and because a large number of units were sent south to participate in anti-partisan operations in southern China, which were conducted successfully up until the very end of the war. This left them with a large number of supply units, under-equipped artillerists, and military police troops. Shockingly, when these loser rear-area nerds met several tank armies and combat hardened Soviet infantrymen, they lost!
Anyway, I thought we were talking about Ukraine, not about Japan. As I said, the Japanese, Italians, English, and French have used fireships to fight superior navies, and generally speaking this is a loser's strategy. It worked okay in the Age of Sail, where wind had a nasty habit of sending two ships into each other, but when ships gained the ability to move under their own power instead of at the mercy of the natural forces, it was noticeably rather less effective.
Ukraine's use of robotic fireships/autonomous kamikazes/whatever is a loser's strategy that inferior navies use against superior ones.
It's what a navy on death's door looks like. Whether the Ukrainian Navy will survive as an institution is a genuine question. I doubt it will, beyond being a basic coast guard for Odessa/Kherson/Mykolaiv, and maybe search and rescue for downed aviators. If the Ukrainians wanted to keep their navy, they should have raised more Marine assault brigades, acquired more landing ships and frigates, have actual submarines, and gave the Navy some Su-24s for naval strike missions. However, they don't have enough troops, and the Marines' poor showing in the early days of the war has no doubt made them something of the red-headed step child of the UaMOD, while they don't have enough fighter jets to run their air force much less separate naval and ground mission air forces into their respective branches.
In the modern age, the only effective fireship might be a midget submarine carrying a nuclear warhead in a major war, such as Ukraine, or one disguised as a fishing ship that sneaks up on destroyers in ostensibly allied countries' harbors in less significant wars, like USS Cole. Otherwise they are too easily identified and destroyed in mass and the warheads they carry are too weak to be particularly effective. Ditto for FACs. We know this because of Operation Praying Mantis and Desert Storm, where puny navies were beaten by big ones, despite having the same missiles as the big ones. It was worse in earlier eras when puny navies had little 3" guns and 40mms at best. Russia has yet to suffer any losses from Ukrainian suicide kayaks because they are aware of the threat, ditto anti-ship missiles, and the main threat seems to be a ground invasion of Crimea. Maybe. That's not a job for navies...
Cruise missiles would be more effective at hitting ships at sea or in port, but Ukraine seemingly cannot pull off mass multi-axis cruise missile attacks using GPS waypoints against Sevastopol, or else they would have done it by now instead of sending their weird kayak things, and this is probably because they're husbanding those weapons for some unknown purpose, or they simply don't have them.
In the grand scheme, as far as the Ukrainian Navy goes, it's a waste of time and resources, but it's not the biggest waste of time and resources. Ukraine has many more miles of border with Poland, Hungary, and Romania to export grain with, and the Ukrainian Marines can still do a coup if the admirals want it.
If they were organized like a cross of the two German navies, they might be able to credibly contest the Black Sea, but that would require submarines, FAC squadrons, ASW frigates, LSTs, and tactical bombers, which they will never really be getting anytime soon. Mykolaiv can't build warships and Sevastopol is Russian at the moment.
The bomb kayaks simply aren't useful in any real, military terms.
Anyway, I thought we were talking about Ukraine, not about Japan. As I said, the Japanese, Italians, English, and French have used fireships to fight superior navies, and generally speaking this is a loser's strategy. It worked okay in the Age of Sail, where wind had a nasty habit of sending two ships into each other, but when ships gained the ability to move under their own power instead of at the mercy of the natural forces, it was noticeably rather less effective.
Ukraine's use of robotic fireships/autonomous kamikazes/whatever is a loser's strategy that inferior navies use against superior ones.
It's what a navy on death's door looks like. Whether the Ukrainian Navy will survive as an institution is a genuine question. I doubt it will, beyond being a basic coast guard for Odessa/Kherson/Mykolaiv, and maybe search and rescue for downed aviators. If the Ukrainians wanted to keep their navy, they should have raised more Marine assault brigades, acquired more landing ships and frigates, have actual submarines, and gave the Navy some Su-24s for naval strike missions. However, they don't have enough troops, and the Marines' poor showing in the early days of the war has no doubt made them something of the red-headed step child of the UaMOD, while they don't have enough fighter jets to run their air force much less separate naval and ground mission air forces into their respective branches.
In the modern age, the only effective fireship might be a midget submarine carrying a nuclear warhead in a major war, such as Ukraine, or one disguised as a fishing ship that sneaks up on destroyers in ostensibly allied countries' harbors in less significant wars, like USS Cole. Otherwise they are too easily identified and destroyed in mass and the warheads they carry are too weak to be particularly effective. Ditto for FACs. We know this because of Operation Praying Mantis and Desert Storm, where puny navies were beaten by big ones, despite having the same missiles as the big ones. It was worse in earlier eras when puny navies had little 3" guns and 40mms at best. Russia has yet to suffer any losses from Ukrainian suicide kayaks because they are aware of the threat, ditto anti-ship missiles, and the main threat seems to be a ground invasion of Crimea. Maybe. That's not a job for navies...
Cruise missiles would be more effective at hitting ships at sea or in port, but Ukraine seemingly cannot pull off mass multi-axis cruise missile attacks using GPS waypoints against Sevastopol, or else they would have done it by now instead of sending their weird kayak things, and this is probably because they're husbanding those weapons for some unknown purpose, or they simply don't have them.
In the grand scheme, as far as the Ukrainian Navy goes, it's a waste of time and resources, but it's not the biggest waste of time and resources. Ukraine has many more miles of border with Poland, Hungary, and Romania to export grain with, and the Ukrainian Marines can still do a coup if the admirals want it.
If they were organized like a cross of the two German navies, they might be able to credibly contest the Black Sea, but that would require submarines, FAC squadrons, ASW frigates, LSTs, and tactical bombers, which they will never really be getting anytime soon. Mykolaiv can't build warships and Sevastopol is Russian at the moment.
The bomb kayaks simply aren't useful in any real, military terms.
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