I have been pondering the question of which Western tanks to send to Ukraine quite a lot lately. In my opinion, the ideal option would be to send the M1 Abrams, some Leopard 2s and a whole bunch of Leopard 1A5s and M60A3s, as these are the only widely available platforms. However, as the Americans seem to be adamant in their refusal to provide the Abrams (this also seems to finally have been accepted in Berlin, too), the only viable option seems to be to send a hodgepodge of European designs to Ukraine and also to reduce the readines of European armies for some years which could only be compensated by temporary deployments (depending on the speed of delivery of replacement systems this would extend to anywhere from 2025 to 2030) of additional American units (maybe an armoured brigade both in Lithuania and in Finland). As Greece, Turkey and non-European states are unlikely to donate any Western tanks in their inventories, the following is what I have come up with:
An armoured division made up of Leopard 2s:
- an armoured brigade of three batallions of Leopard 2A6s (about 60 from Bundeswehr and an equal number from the Spanish army plus the remaining 19 2A5s of the German army and about 40 Polish 2A5s upgraded to 2A6 standard ASAP, spares would have to come from existing German and Spanish units), a batallion of CV9040s, a battery of Italian M109Ls, a battery of 2S1 Gvozdikas, a battery of BM-21 Grads or RM-22s, logistics batallion, Bergepanzer 3s, Brückenpanzer Biebers, Pionierpanzer 2s etc.
-two mechanised infantry brigades made of a batallion of Leopard 2A4s (Finland could donate up to 40 if we temporarily give up independent tank companies in our wartime ORBAT, 40 from Poland, 10 from Spain, 20 from Norway and 20 from Canada, additional spares could be obtained by refurbishing the vehicles in bad condition in Spanish depots and in German industry hands), a batallion of Marder 1A3s (this would likely require an additional 80 Marders being donated by Germany meaning a deterioration also of the Panzergrenadier units' readiness unless Puma can be fixed quickly and deliveries expedited), two batallions equipped with M113s/YPR-765s, a battery of M109s, a battery of 2S1 Gvozdikas, a battery of BM-21 Grads or RM-22s, a logistics batallion, appropriate armoured recovery vehicles (most likely Bergepanzer 2s), bridging vehicles (most likely Biebers) and armoured engineer vehicles) each
-divisional artillery batteries of 18 PzH-2000s, 18 M110s (not yet pledged to Ukraine but there should be hundreds potentially available and 8 inch artillery could be very useful in pounding Russian defensive lines) and BM-27 Uragans or Burevyjs
-divisional AA-batteries of 18 Gepard 1A2s (Germany is apparently negotiating with Qatar to buy back its Gepard 1A2s for delivery to Ukraine), Crotale NGs and Buk M1s (firing RIM-7s/Aspides)
-a reconnaisance regiment made of a batallion of Leopard 1A5s (hundreds are potentially available in industry hands in Germany and Belgium, and Greece and Chile might just give up some of their Leopard 1s for a good deal with future Leopard 2A7 acquisition) and a batallion of Fenneks
-divisional logistics, repair and engineering units
I would place this division on the Zaporižžja front.
An armoured division made up of Challenger 1s and 2s - replacing tank losses in this division would be challenging
- an armoured brigade made up of three regiments of Challenger 1s (Jordan is geting rid of its Challenger 1s. These are apparently in bad shape, so significant refurbishing is required. If any are still stored in the UK, these should also be sent.), a batallion of M2A2ODS Bradleys, a battery of AS-90s, a battery of 2S1 Gvozdikas, a battery of BM-21 Grads or RM-22s, a logistics batallion, CRARRVs, Titans and Trojans
-two mechanised brigades made up of a regiment of either Challenger 1s or Challenger 2s (this would require the UK to donate practically speaking all of the Challenger 2s not destined to be upgraded to Challenger 3s probably making the spares situation of the latter critical rather quickly), a batallion of Warriors (UK has not yet pledged these - this would likely require the quick fixing of the Ajax and expedited deliveries), two batallions of Bulldogs/M113s, a battery of M109s, a battery of 2S1 Gvozdikas, a battery of BM-21 Grads or RM-22s, a logistics batallion, CRARRVs, Titans and Trojans each
-divisional artillery batteries made of 18 Krabs, 18 M110s and BM-27 Uragans or Burevyjs
-divisional AA-batteries made up of 18 Gepard 1A2s or 18 ZSU-23-4MP Białas (not yet provided but I would see these as a possibility), Stormer HVMs, OSA-AKM-P1s and Buk M1s (firing RIM-7s/Aspides)
-a reconnaisance regiment made of a batallion of FV107 Scimitars (not yet pledged by the UK but likely in the future IMO) and a batallion of HMMVWs
-divisional logistics, repair and engineering units
I would place this division on the Donets'k front (the heavy armour of both Challengers would be very helpful breaking through heavily fortified lines and in the many urban areas of Southern Donbas)
An armoured division made up of Leclercs and M60A3s
-an armoured brigade made up of three batallions of Leclercs (France is considering donating some Leclercs and UAE is rumoured to be planning to replace at least some of its Leclercs - this would be possible if France donated the 22 of its Leclercs not to be updated to the XLR standard and bought back the UAE Leclercs for delivery to Ukraine), a batallion of M2A2ODS Bradleys, a battery of M109A6s, a battery of 2S1 Gvozdikas, a battery of BM-21 Grads or RM-22s, a logistics batallion, Bergepanzer 2s, Biebers and armoured engineer vehicles
-two mechanised infantry brigades made up of a batallion of M60A3s (these could be bought back from Egypt and there might still be some stored vehicles in Europe and the US), a batallion of M2A2 ODS Bradleys (I am assuming here that the US is going to deliver more Bradleys in the future), two batallions of M113s, a battery of M109s, a battery of 2S1 Gvozdikas, a battery of BM-21s and RM-22s, a logistics batallion and M88s, bridging vehicles and armoured engineer vehicles
-divisional artillery batteries made up of 18 CAESARs, 18 M110s, and BM-27 Uragans or Burevyjs
-divisional AA-batteries made up of 18 Gepard 1A2s, Crotale NGs and Buk M1s (firing RIM-7s/Aspides)
-a reconnaisance regiment made up of a batallion of AMX-10 RCs and a batallion of HMMWVs
-divisional logistics, repair and engineering units
I would place this division on the Luhans'k front where the relatively light weight of its tanks would be quite helpful in the swampy and forested terrain.
I would also form armoured divisions utilising Leopard 1A5s/M60A3s and M113 and would place them in Western and Northern Ukraine and on the Kherson front where their light protection and firepower would be a very great impediment and where their light weight would help in the swampy and forested terrain. Additionally, I would form light mechanised brigades utilising B1 Centauros (not yet pledged by Italy but likely considering their impending replacement by B2 Centauro in Italian service), AMX-10 RCs (depending how many are provided by France - I would not consider the delivery of all the over 200 pieces unlikely as hte vehicle is to be retired from French service in any case this year), FV107 Scimitars, FV102 Spartans, VABs, Pasis, Strykers and DANAs.
Now, this is all speculation on my part, and this is my view of an ideal situation (sans M1 Abrams), where European countries significantly increase the quantity and heaviness of the ground equipment they provide to Ukraine. I do not consider the full realisation of this likely any time soon (before autumn at least) if ever, but neither do I consider this completely impossible. Additionally, this does not remove Ukraine's need of modern Western fighter aircraft (Tranche 1 Typhoons and F-16 A/B MLUs might be a solution here), AEW&C platforms (E-2Cs or Erieyes might be a soloution here) or longer range precission fires (GL-SDB and Storm Shaddow along Ukrainian production of kamikaze drines and Sapsan SRBMs are the likely solutions here). The scetch above might also contain several errors as it is completely based on publicly and quickly available information.
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