Examining the possible future interceptors of the Type 83 destroyer.
The future Type 83 destroyer will likely be expected to provide air defence across the short-range/point defence (up to 50km), medium-range (50km-150km) and long-range/anti-ballistic brackets (>150km). Currently, the Type 45 destroyers function firmly in the first of those three brackets, and are beginning to step partially into the third. Their mix of Aster-15, with a disclosed range of 30+km and Aster-30, with a disclosed range of 120+km and a proven short range anti-ballistic capability allows for proficient medium area defence - for example, providing a defensive screen for a carrier strike group out to (assuming that disclosed range is lower than maximum effective range) likely 150+km, the upper limit of medium range. The addition of CAMM means that these ships will have a shorter ranged point defence weapon, and the removal of Aster-15 from the A50 silos and its replacement with upgraded Block 1 Aster-30s will significantly improve the ballistic missile defence capability of the ship, although it will not increase its maximum engagement range significantly. The hypothetical movement to Aster-30 Block 1NT, underway in France and Italy, gives the missile as disclosed range of 150+km, and a 25km maximum altitude, would make small steps into the long-range defence bracket, but these have not been announced for the Royal Navy as of yet.
Assuming that the Type 83 will seek to improve upon its predecessor's defensive ability, as is likely, it will possess both a larger and longer-ranged arsenal of interceptors, facilitated by a large increase in VLS cell count. Today, I'd like to examine the possible options for each of the range brackets mentioned above, looking at what might be likely to be procured.
But before the missiles themselves can be examined, the choice of VLS used is crucial. Here, I see three main options: the currently used Sylver A-series (A35, A43, A50 and A70, of which the A50 and A70 are the most likely), the American Mk41, and a indigenous strike length system. Under current circumstances, the development of a British deep penetration VLS seems expensive and impratical, and therefore the most unlikely of the three choices (although the UK does have a history of spending large amounts of money developing indigenous systems when perfectly viable off-the-shelf alternatives are available - see Ajax). This leaves us with the Sylver system and the Mk41. Both have advantages - the Sylver system is already integrated with the Aster-30 series of missiles, and is familiar to the Royal Navy, having been the principal system of the Type 45 destroyers. On the other hand, Sylver struggles when it comes to the variety of systems that can be employed. Currently, the only interceptors capable of being fired from the Sylver VLS are the Aster family, the MICA-VL and the Crotale. Only one cruise missile, the MdCN, can be launched. Of these systems, the Royal Navy only uses the Aster-30 Block 1. Whilst the Anglo-French FC/ASW will almost certainly be Sylver capable, as will any future Italian-French interceptors, the relative dearth of available and integrated systems is problematic. Alternatively, the American Mk41 integrates a very wide range of missiles, although relatively few are in current Royal Navy service. The Mk41 is capable of firing all type of the American Standard Missile series (SM-2, SM-6, SM-3), the short-medium range ESSM, the Tomahawk cruise missile, the VL-ASROC and many more, including the British designed CAMM. As the chosen system of the USN, it will likely see many future integrations with coming missiles, eg LRASM. A further benefit to the Mk41 is that, whilst not yet integrated, it is theoretically capable of fitting and launching the Aster-30 family, and will likely be integrated with the FC/ASW when it arrives, what with the use of the Mk41 onboard the coming Type 26 and Type 31 frigates for the Royal Navy. Standardization is a further argument in favour of the Mk41 being chosen. As the UK integrates more closely with America and Australia through the AUKUS pact, it would make sense to join those nations in also using Mk41. As of the time of writing, the use of Mk41 cells, likely strike length cells, seems the most probable for the Type 83.
In the short-range bracket, it seems that the Royal Navy has a clear contender for its interceptor of choice: CAMM. The Common Anti-air Modular Missile, designed by MBDA-UK, offers a highly manoeuvrable interception capability at ranges of up to 25km (and likely further). Already in use on the Type 23 frigates of the Royal Navy and the SkySabre GBAD of the British Army, as well as using parts from the Royal Air Force's ASRAAM, and planned for integration on the Type 45 destroyers and Type 26 and Type 31 frigates, CAMM seems by far the most likely choice for the short-range and point defence option. One disadvantage, however, is that CAMM, even for a short-range missiles, has a short range. MBDA has disclosed a range of 25km, compared to 50km+ for the ESSM, which, like CAMM, is quad-packed into a single Mk41 VLS cell. However, whilst the CAMM on its own is short range, its siblings are not. Specifically, the CAMM-ER, or extended range, offers 45km range, bringing it to parity with the ESSM, and can still be quad-packed. Both of these weapons compare favourably against the Aster-15, which, along with having no quad-packing capability, has a shorter range to boot, and is not Mk41 capable. For these reasons, I would posit that the most likely short-range interceptor missile for the Type 83 is CAMM, and maybe CAMM-ER. Assuming that Mk41 would be used, and not the 'mushroom farm' silos of the Type 45 and Type 26, eight Mk41 cells could house 32 CAMMs or CAMM-ERs, giving the Type 83 a strong self-defence and local area defence capability.
Moving to medium range, there are a few more options. These are: the American SM-2 Block IIIC, used across many naval forces, the Aster-30 Block 1NT, in use by France and Italy, and the CAMM-MR, a missile in development jointly by Poland and Britain. SM-2, whilst likely the longest range of these systems, seems the least likely to me. In an effort to ensure a degree of strategic autonomy, I think that the UK will likely prefer a non-American missile. That leaves Aster-30 or CAMM-MR. Aster-30 comes with a proven record, and a clear anti-ballistic capability, and familiarity, but has yet to be integrated with Mk41 VLS cells, although is theoretically capable. Furthermore, with Aster-30 also in use by both France and Italy, it is likely to see continuous upgrades and improvements for its service life. On the other hand, there is CAMM-MR. With a range of around 100km, this system is in development for both Polish GBAD and naval employments, on board their variants of the Type 31, in conjunction with the UK. It promises a cheap missile with capability between ESSM and Aster-30, with part commonality with other CAMM variants. It might also be financially pleasing to share a common CAMM 'pool' with the British Army and other nations, reducing maintenance costs. The final advantage of CAMM-MR is perhaps its most appealing - concept imagery of the missile suggests that it may be able to be dual-packed in the Mk41 VLS cell, significantly boosting the amount of interceptors that can be carried by a vessel. However, it is my belief that the Aster-30, being both proven and anti-ballistic capable, is more likely to fill that medium range slot. CAMM-MR, being a less capable but more space-efficient missile, is more suited to the more constrained capacity of frigates like the Type 31, giving the model effective air defence when combined with CAMM and CAMM-ER. Aster-30, with its anti-ballistic properties, would seem to be the better fit for a larger destroyer with more space to dedicate to its missiles.
The final bracket is long-range and terminal ballistic missile defence, a category that really only has two systems that fulfil that bracket. These are both American, being the very long-range and purely anti-ballistic SM-3, enabling interceptions at ranges of 1200km and exoatmospheric altitude, and the long-range SM-6, with a disclosed range of 240km and an altitude of 34km, as well as terminal ballistic missile interception capability. Both missiles are extremely expensive, and are only capable of Mk41 launch. Of the two, SM-6 seems far and away more likely, purely on the basis that SM-3 is beyond what the Type 83 will likely need. In addition to this, SM-6 can also strike naval and land targets at long range. Coming back to the AUKUS angle mentioned above, it is also used by Australia, as well as Japan and South Korea. There are European systems aiming to produce missiles of a similar class. The HYDIS2 programme and the TWISTER initiative are two examples, and may become operational by the arrival of the Type 83 in the 2030s. Right now however, the SM-6 is the most obvious choice for long range air defence.
Obviously this is pretty surface level amateur analysis, but I'd love to know your opinions? Or if this is the wrong place to post this, recommendations of who else might want to see