Moose said:
fredymac said:
Where is the requirement for a "pre-planned rollout coordinated with DOD approval". Especially if the DOD track record on this issue is best defined as stonewalling.
Institutionally, the Air Force will never agree to separating space activities to an independent service. The Army and Navy will not appreciate having a new competitor for defense dollars.
Civilian control over the military manifests itself in large measure with decisions opposed by the individual services. Formation of a unified Department Of Defense did not come about because the Navy and Army liked the idea of surrendering their individual department level status.
The question is whether space has become so important that it can substantially determine the security of the country. The fact that DARPA and not the Air Force is actively trying to develop means to safeguard and replenish space assets highlights the priority conflict that is forcing this issue.
Nowhere I my post did I claim there was a requirement for anything he had ordered. Everything he's done so far is within his powers to do, no doubt about it, and short of the powers reserved to Congress that would actually make a new service branch happen, he can order all the study and planning he likes. I was pushing back on the notion that posters here or "the media" are overreacting to the suddenness of this announcement, and the suggestion that it was a long-planned rollout with a well-planned push behind it. It's noteworthy, and the lack of greater preparation or consensus-building ahead of time may have long-lasting effects on how, when, or if a "Space Force" happens during his term in office. And even if he had gone about it completely differently, like perhaps a
Truman-like Recommendation directly to Congress, that would be worthing noting and discussing as well.
The speech is President Trump's version of Truman's letter. Additionally, I don't believe the Army and Navy were too keen to be subordinate to the Secretary of Defense back in '47 and '49 either.
The concern (by Mattis) to a US Space Force seemed to be related more to additional overhead and the integration of "space support services" between the existing branches. Basically dollars and bureaucracy, not enough of one and too much of the other.
But this is an interesting moment. A Department that can be created from scratch in 2018/19, in the era of the defense department audit and Rapid Capabilities Office under the direction of Mattis is a unique opportunity. There can be efficiencies, controls and management processes defined that are radically different than those used in the Army and Navy - very old bureaucracies.
And there are good reasons to make this decision now.
From ius gentium through canon law by way of de Vitoria (a Dominican by the way) to Grotius' Mare Liberum, the concept of the 'Freedom of the Seas' is a principle most recently defined by the UNCLOS. This 20th century agreement took 2000 years to promulgate. The US has signed but not ratified the agreement but she does recognize this as customary international law. This agreement is an important factor in the movement of ~$20 trillion in world trade. Even though the principle has coalesced over many centuries and is almost universally accepted we still have countries that are arbitrarily claiming 'historic rights' to waters for which they have no historic rights. So we know that nations must be vigilant in defending basic principles. These same principles will be contemplated when deciding how to manage space.
Today, the space economy accounts for ~$350 billion in goods and services of which only ~$5.5 billion is for launch services (transport services). This is a fraction of the ~$20 trillion (~$850B in transport services) in world trade and only accounts for 'basic infrastructure.' But recall that at the turn of the 19th century exports and imports across nations was below 10% of global production. Today that figure is higher than 50%. What changed? Inter-european integration in the 19th century and technological advances such as commercial aviation, productivity improvements and communications in the 20th.
How is that similar to where we are today?
Through quality control, supply chain management and, ultimately, additional cost advantages through reusability, SpaceX has completely disrupted the space launch business. The result being overwhelming US commercial space lift market share, increasing from 0 in 2011 to ~55% last year. SpaceX launch cadence will increase in 2018, Rocket Lab will being commercial launches in 2018 and Virgin Orbit will attempt their first launch this year. Space transport services over the next five years will be completely transformed with multiple new systems in place for human transport, heavy, medium and light cargo lift.
Plummeting costs create opportunities that weren't considered viable just 5 years ago. This is analogous to the technology advancements that reduced transaction costs for trade after World War II. There is every reason to believe that integration and technological advances will result in exponential growth in world trade based in space over the next 50 years.
It is imperative for the United States to look ahead to the security requirements of commerce in space. It need look no further than 1945 and the fundamental changes that took place at the end of World War II. For over 70 years the United States has defended the freedom of the sea - the transport of world trade. There are myriad examples of the benefits provided by US leadership and security. I'll provide one. While world population has increased from less than 2.5 billion in 1945 to over 7 billion today, US security, food production and increased world trade has reduced the number of people living in extreme poverty from ~1.8 billion in 1945 to less than 700 million today.
There are two large economies today. One, while not perfect, is based on democracy, justice, and equity, whose declaration to the world at its inception included an understanding of the intrinsic dignity of the human being stating all "are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed..." The other is based on Marxism and Leninism, with socialism as the foundation of the law with the ultimate goal of social order and control. An ideology responsible for ~100 million deaths over the last 100 years.
As we move forward into a new world trade dynamic that includes space we recognize this opportunity was created by the last 70 years of 'rules based order.' But the status quo norms are being tested. There is a question whether the rules are changing; if we are returning to a previous age of great power politics. If that is the case, then the result, as we know from previous centuries, is 'the rules are set by he who rules.'
If you want to influence the rules in space, then one must be prepared to provide security in space. The only question is who do you want to influence the rules?