The UK plans to conduct military training of the civilian population

[DrRansom]

Although the US appears about to return to isolation and even hostility to other democracies from January 2025 the remaining countries are nowhere near as feeble as the democracies were in the 1930s.
The two great economies of Japan and Germany are open societies with a strong awareness of where repression and dictators can lead.
The neutral countries in many cases are now active participants in collective defence.
Britain and France have small but effective nuclear deterrents which act as longstops against Munichlike blackmail.
Australia, Canada and New Zealand are strong forthright democracies.

It is sentiments like this which are going to doom NATO and lead Europe to the abyss. Much here is, at best, questionable, if not outright delusional.

Riddle me this, without the US Navy, could Europe stop pirates at the Bab el Mandeb from holding European-bound trade ransom for security payments?

 

[DWG]

without the US Navy, could Europe stop pirates at the Bab el Mandeb from holding European-bound trade ransom for security payments?

Operation Atalanta, BTDT.

The current US deployment seems to be USS Dwight D Eisenhower, USS Philippines Sea , plus 4 Arleigh Burkes: Gravely, Carney, Laboon and Mason, and the SSGN USS Florida. Fairly typical for a modern CVBG.

Current 'European' deployment, HMS Diamond (Type 45 DDG), FS Languedoc (Acquitaine/FREMM), and the Italian Virginio Fasan (Bergamini/FREMM), all have been busy. And it's not simply 'Europe', India currently has three DDGs in the Gulf of Aden, Pakistan two frigates, no idea what the current Chinese deployment is, but they've been regulars. Saudi Arabia is currently in a truce with the Houthis, but you mess with Saudi oil at your peril, ditto the UAE. Even the RNZN, the Ukrainians and the Columbians got in on the Operation Atalanta action last time around.

Europe could easily deploy an additional five or six DDGs/FFGs to the Gulf of Aden, that's less than 10% of available hulls, we might not have any CVNs, but it's difficult to sink Djibouti, which sits 80 miles from the Bab-el-Mandeb.

 

[riggerrob]

....

I too like the Scandinavian model - have those who want to join up, compete for their most desired spots. ….

Good point about making recruits COMPETE for the most desirable slots. Start competition with high school scores and athletic accomplishments.
Do the highest-scoring high school athletes get first pick of draft assignments?
Where do the weakest recruits go?
Infantry?
Driving snow-plows?
Cleaning bed pans in a hospital?

Please consider my bias after having served in all three of Canada’s armed forces. I started with 5 years service in the army reserve, then transferred to the Air Force, but - because I volunteered to work on Sea King helicopters - spent a couple of years at sea.
The RCAF has the best base facilities (barracks, cafeterias, sports halls, etc.) and they only work 8 hours per day. The navy is the second “gentlest” duty, because even when you consider sea-sickness, sea-duty still includes 3 hot meals and a cot and the ship’s laundry.

 

[uk 75]

The US is free to choose the January 2025 position I describe. I am not seeking to meddle with that process just to describe some of the other countries in the frame.
The situation is nowhere near as black and white as my summary suggests but equally life in the world will not stop because of Trump any more than it did in his first term.

 

[uk 75]

The main obstacle to the enlargement of the UK armed forces is the change in the jobs market. There is a shortage of applicants for nearly all jobs.
This is coupled with the increased complexity of modern warfare which needs greater skills than it did back in the 50s.
Attracting people will need large amounts of money and reforms to training and education which may not be available.

 

[perttime]

Good point about making recruits COMPETE for the most desirable slots. Start competition with high school scores and athletic accomplishments.
Do the highest-scoring high school athletes get first pick of draft assignments?
Where do the weakest recruits go?
Infantry?
Driving snow-plows?
Cleaning bed pans in a hospital?

...

In the Finnish system, if you want to serve your year, or less, of conscript service in a particular role, you apply for that. Then they test you and either accept or reject. School grades might help you get into the screening. Air Force student pilot or assistant mechanic, Navy, parachute ranger, Military Police....

The year when you are 18, all males have to attend an event where they are briefed about military service. Your health record is assessed and you have an interview where the location and starting date of your service is determined. If you have no specific aspirations, you probably end up in infantry or artillery. If the instructors like what they see, they send you to learn some speciality, or training for low level leadership positions. If you already have useful skills, that can be take into account. Maybe you end up driving or maintaining heavy vehicles or working in a military hospital. Everybody gets trained as a "rifle man" first.

If you are mentally or physically not fit to serve, they send you home. They might or might not require you to come again in a year or two. If your conscience does not allow you to operate weapons, there are still jobs that you can do in the military. If you refuse to serve in the military, you can be put to work in a hospital or such. If you refuse to do that too, you get a prison sentence.

This applies to males only. Women can volunteer for military service.

 

[Yellow Palace]

These days though, I`ve talked to people in purchasing depts of British firms who long for the steel quality that they got from British Steel in Sheffield, the stuff now all comes from the far east and the variation from batch to batch, is unbelievable, and its highly doubtful if the material actually complies with the standard its sold under. Its far worse than was available here in the 80`s, but hey we saved 25% on our material costs ! so Yay !

The last time the steel mills were being shut down, Network Rail took a controlling interest in Scunthorpe steelworks, as apparently it's the only place they can reliably get the kind of rails they need in fairly large quantities every year. There are other steelworks that can do it, but not unreasonably they give first preference to their own national railways...

That's probably the real intent of the speech - "-or we could just..." is the unspoken part.

Supposedly, the kinds of numbers being discussed as needed are on the order of a total force of 500,000 people. Which is slightly more than a doubling of current forces personnel, and not far off what we had in 1989. A good recruitment drive, with adequate funding for pay and conditions, and confidence that recruits can enjoy a full military career, ought to do the trick.

Nobody is going to sign away the best years of their life to be underpaid, underappreciated, made to live in atrocious conditions whilst being shot at, and then be thrown aside with next to no notice because the Treasury needed to make in-year spending cuts.

Quite apart from anything else, there's no equipment for the UK to attempt mass mobilisation. The war reserve stocks were sold off decades ago, the warehouses they were kept in have been converted to industrial estates, and the factories that made them turned into housing developments! Yes, Ukraine has mass mobilised to an impressive degree - but arming the Ukranian army has required a good chunk of Western Europe and North America's industrial capability.

Attracting people will need large amounts of money and reforms to training and education which may not be available.

If the UK government really wants to improve its defence posture, it has the tools to make money available, and is only limited by the available human and industrial resources. If it doesn't want to, then the availability of funding and resources is irrelevant.

 

[Hood]

There are about 15 units for each service nationally, vs 160 universities. Obviously if you're at one of the London, Oxford or Cambridge colleges it doesn't make much difference if the local unit is in a neighbouring college, but if it's a couple of hours away it gets much more difficult. I looked into URNU when I was at Lancaster in the '80s, but the local unit was in Liverpool and I couldn't make the timing work with my courses, though some did.

Greetings to a fellow alumni. I work at Lancaster, never really seen much evidence of them around, a couple of times at Remembrance parades. That would explain it if they need to trek to Liverpool on a regular basis.

 

[A Tentative Fleet Plan]

Yes, Ukraine has mass mobilised to an impressive degree - but arming the Ukranian army has required a good chunk of Western Europe and North America's industrial capability.

I'd argue a much larger proportion of the Ukrainian armed forces use equipment inherited from the Soviet Union, which very much planned to equip mass-mobilisation armies.

 

[Calum Douglas]

I think, Putin totally underestimated the effort it would take to defeat Ukraine, shortly before the beginning of the war, he sends intelligence stuff to Kiew which should take over the government shortly after the first attack. Now it lasts already two years and the front is stuck. Both sides are slowly bleeding out of men and material. His war might still be supported by a large part of the Russians, but I totally disbelieve that starting a new world war is a popular idea in Russia, even among the leadership (with exceptions). Attacking GB and unavoidably all the other countries on the way, would be totally insane. Sure, he could send nukes, but what could hardly trained civilians do against that thread?

I do agree, that one year in the military can be a valuable experience for young people, but often it is just waisted time. I had friends (in Germany) who were slightly disabled and spend one year almost entirely in an office with cooking and serving coffee without any proper job left to do. It is quite weighty impact in your personal freedom which has to be justified.

About the young generation and their cell phones, don’t forget that computer nerds and drone pilots can be much more useful in a war than physical fit sport asses!

Agreed I dont think there is any evidence that they have any particular interest in starting some euopean invasion, for me, something that seems to be unpopular as a topic of discussion, is that whilst the Russians seem to have been unprepared and backwards in the first year of the war especially, now, thanks to the conflict they have a wealth of experience on all the latest weapons systems/drone/EM war capabilities of NATO, and certainly, the next time they have to get involved in someting we`re part of - I doubt we`ll have such an easy time of it next time. Russians are not stupid, and will start adapting and learning quickly.

I would imagine that realistically the only thing trained British civilians would be actually used for would be sending to Ukraine, but I very much hope the whole thing will have ended via diplomatic means long before that can happen anyway. (thats my best attempt at optimism)

 

[Nicknick]

Same is true for both sides, all will think about how to react to the latest development in warfare. The weapons will be different than today, with drones and AI will play a major role.

 

[Hood]

Morality and reality: the key problems facing UK military recruiters

Calls to prepare for war butt up against record on recent conflicts, pay and conditions, and changing youth culture

www.theguardian.com

 

[riggerrob]

Too true.

And I note that the ROK Army is easing its restrictions on off-duty smartphone use by new recruits. No doubt, current demographic panics are prompting fresh looks at morale loss related to the previous absence of 'connectedness'.

The real question is whether “connectedness” to an internet chum (on the far side of the planet) is more important than “connectedness” to your fellow soldier sitting beside you in a muddy trench??????

 

[zen]

I'll add another aspect of this.

There is within the Russian Elite a sign of a plan to trigger Article 5 of NATO in such a way as for nothing or nearly nothing to happen.
Obviously to degrade the Alliance and slowly "boil the frog" by repeated escalations. Much as they are easing Russia into total war. Incremental mobilisation by mobility.
Testing the security of The Regime.

As a fallback this plan holds that should NATO effect overwhelming conventional power, The Regime can successfully stop without collapsing itself, the war with the line "Ukraine did not defeat us, NATO did".

Figures within NATO are aware of this and obviously seek to raise the prospect of rearmament which would dwarf Russia. In this they are trying to set the psychological and propaganda spaces for such an outcome.

 

[riggerrob]

…..

It is sentiments like this which are going to doom NATO and lead Europe to the abyss. Much here is, at best, questionable, if not outright delusional.

Riddle me this, without the US Navy, could Europe stop pirates at the Bab el Mandeb from holding European-bound trade ransom for security payments?

You are echoing what Peter Zeihan is saying about how the US Navy guarantees our current free-trade model by policing freedom-of-movement on the seas.

 

[riggerrob]

The main obstacle to the enlargement of the UK armed forces is the change in the jobs market. There is a shortage of applicants for nearly all jobs. ….
Attracting people will need large amounts of money and reforms to training and education which may not be available.

Every nation is facing this shortage of young recruits … for any job.
Ever since 1970, birth-rates have fallen below replacement rates in the First World and much of the Second World. Only a handful of third world nations like Nigeria and Gaza have maintained high birth rates.
Furthermore,the biggest single population bulge - Baby Boomers (born 1946 to 1964) are now retiring, taking their skills with them. Overall, the human race faces a DECLINE over the next 50 years.

But Russia has it far worse. Consider that a Russian boy born in 1920 had only a 20 percent chance of surviving World War 2. Add in all the deaths during the Russian Civil War, Holomodor, Stalin’s purges, etc. and Russia suffered a series of shortages of young men. Then add in how Russian birth rates dipped during the uncertainty that followed the collapse of the USSR, the brightest minds fleeing to better-paying jobs in the West all adding up to the Russian Army currently suffering from a shrinking pool of young to serve as cannon-fodder … cough … cough … defend Mother Russia against the evil Ukrainian fascists. … cough … cough ….

 

[riggerrob]

…. A good recruitment drive, with adequate funding for pay and conditions, and confidence that recruits can enjoy a full military career, ought to do the trick. ….

This discussion started with the concept of conscription. Traditionally, armies provide conscripts with only the bare essentials of three hot meals, a cot and medical care. On paper, these are the same basics provided to convicts in prison. Traditionally, conscripts/recruits are paid barely enough to keep in beer and cigarettes.
Entry-level McJobs pay even worse.

Traditionally, armies screen recruits and - at the end of their initial recruitment - the best and brightest conscripts are offered long-service contracts with pay approaching that of civilian industry.
Let’s keep this thread focussed on short-service conscripts.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Although the US appears about to return to isolation and even hostility to other democracies from January 2025

What is that assumption based on?

 

[riggerrob]

What is that assumption based on?

Peter Zeihan’s predictions if Trump wins the election in November 2024.