The F-35 No Holds Barred topic

[sferrin]

"Monday morning quarterbacking" is a term widely used by those who resist learning from their own, or others' mistakes.


Like most sports metaphors, it is of limited usefulness, because life is not about bats and balls.

No, "Monday morning quarterbacking" is a term of disparagement directed at those who like to state the obvious (in hindsight) while refusing to acknowledge reality.

 

[GTX]

Is it just me or are others having déjà vu sensations here as well? We have already been over these points before and yet here we go again!

Even if the various services, manufacturers etc had wanted to do three separate programs utilising common systems, though remaining separate, at some point the pressure (from Govt, the Pentagon and dare I say, a lot of you naysayers) to combine them into one would have still become unbearable thus resulting in a merger in to one...which, dare I say, would have been even less efficient/desirable than having done it right from the start as we have with the F-35. I challenge you to say that this would not have occurred! :

Mind you, I still say this is a moot point because speculating about what could have happened is simply that: speculation. I could have just as easily concocted a scenario whereby your fantasy of 2 or 3 separate platforms turned into a huge debacle. Would I be right? Maybe/maybe not. Does it matter or have any relevance for the existing reality? Nope! And as for the comment about relevance to 6th generation fighters…if you believe people aren't taking notice than you are a fool. At the same time though, remember that given the timelines involved, a lot of those involved will be long retied by then. Moreover, one has to remember that, just as the with the F-35, there are a lot of forces (such as politics, economy etc) that will influence developments regardless of what you might think is the ideal. Programs such as this do not operate in a vacuum of a design lab - they operate in the real world, with all its imperfections!

That all said, I have to tip my hat to you lot. You do seem to fight a fine rearguard action…especially when one considers the F-35 program is going from strength to strength:

• 100+ platforms constructed and delivered (in fact there might even be more accepted if it weren't for delays in the ability of the acceptance side to keep up);
• More coming down a line that is continuing to ramp up (43 in LRIP8, 71 in LRIP9, 115 in LRIP10, 131 in LRIP11 + + +);
• Increased FMS orders coming (Israel, Japan, Sth Korea, Singapore…;
• Contract negotiations proceeding much better (LRIP 6 & 7 finalised and LRIP 8 proceeding well);
• Unit Aircraft Price coming down (a 55% reduction in cost from LRIP 1 - 7) and following the predictions many have been making for years now;
• Concurrency issue reducing ($500M reduction in Concurrency cost from LRIP 1 - 7);
• Additional production line opened up;
• Software development proceeding acceptably and improving;
• Multiple service IOCs announced (and indeed moving forward in some cases);
• Flight Testing and related proceeding well (Still not a single aircraft loss either - point out an equivalent platform that can claim that after so many flight hours/aircraft?); and
• A growing list of customer representatives praising the aircraft and those developing it…despite what some of you might try to say.

Now get ready to strap in for more. 2014 is going to be an even better year!!! ;D

 

[GTX]

So it is now my strategic decision to quit this discussion, given there are places where a reasoned debate still takes place where each side can learn from the other, and that it looks like things will be busy for a while.

What happened Bill? I thought you had declared yourself above this thread….

 

[LowObservable]

GTX - Which of those points are relevant to the Rand report?


It might make more sense to compare them to the 2001 schedule, since the report is based on comparing predictions at MS B with later predictions.


Sferrin - I don't get your point, since nobody is advocating cancelling the program and starting over. Rand is making a case for taking a different view of jointness in future programs.

 

[sferrin]

Sferrin - I don't get your point, since nobody is advocating cancelling the program and starting over. Rand is making a case for taking a different view of jointness in future programs.

You've never advocated cancelling the F-35 program? That'd be a bit like Obama claiming he never wanted to change healthcare in the US. And while you may realize that it's past that point NOW it certainly hasn't stopped you from trying to influence cutting numbers. (Replacing F-35s with A-10s? Really? : Giving them to the US Army would be a better idea IMO if the alternative is sending them to the boneyard.)

As for "joint" going forward I would say it depends on the program. A future ICBM/SLBM might not be a bad target for "joint". Certainly AAMs and ASMs have worked fine "jointly". (Though, because of differing requirements, you might not end up with an optimal design for both.)

 

[GTX]

GTX - Which of those points are relevant to the Rand report?

Did I say they were? They are however relevant to the overarching debate whereby you and your kind are constantly arguing (in one form or another) against the F-35 (this RAND report "storm in a teacup" (want me to explain what that term means? ) being just the latest itteration - and you know it! : . My post was simply a jab at you lot in general showing how despite all your negative comments, in reality the program is simply getting on and accomplishing success after success.

Don't worry, I will be making a more direct response to the RAND Report soon - I am simply reading the entire report first..rather than just the reporting on the report as some seem want to do… :


BTW, so glad you decided to re-enter this debate…I was bored...

 

[SOC]

And as for the comment about relevance to 6th generation fighters…if you believe people aren't taking notice than you are a fool.

Excuse me? The comment about 6th generation fighters was intended to illustrate why the report is relevant beyond the boundaries of the F-35 program, as it's good to know what potholes not to drive through the next time around.

 

[GTX]

From the News Section…more examples of how the simpletons like to work out aircraft costs:

From FY2014 Authorization and Appropriations, page 82: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R43323.pdfProcurement cost per aircraft.F-35A:$ 3,424.5 million for 19 aircraft ------------ $ 180.23 million per aircraftF-35B:$ 1,370.4 million for 6 aircraft ------------ $ 228.40 million per aircraftF-35C:$ 1,230.3 million for 4 aircraft ------------ $ 307.57 million per aircraft

Ever considered that these amounts include more than just the aircraft? Ah well, I suppose big numbers impress some people...


Now I stand by for the old arguments from the usual players... :

 

[Triton]

I was also thinking that the RAND report might be politically motivated by the United States Air Force as an argument against future joint fighter programs. The RAND report claims that the Joint Strike Fighter is not optimized for the needs of each service and is a compromise. The services also have historically preferred separate fighter aircraft programs specifically tailored for their needs. The United States Air Force and the United States Navy may want evidence to justify NGAD and A/F-XX as separate programs optimized for their needs.

As for the ATF and the JSF programs, there are political elements who just don't want to pay for the development of new fighters. Period. Plus the fact that the Russian Federation, for financial reasons, dropped out of the manned fighter competition with the west. The need probably would have seemed more urgent for the F-22 Raptor if the Russian Federation had been developing the Sukhoi T-50 and the People's Republic of China had been developing the Chengdu J-20 while the F-22 was in development. The proliferation, or expected proliferation, of fifth-generation fighters to regimes hostile to the west, and the United States in particular, would probably have made the case stronger. The argument against fifth-generation fighters was the claim that they were something that the United States armed forces didn't need because the F-22 and F-35 had no challengers. Discussing manned fighter programs on the Secret Projects forum is really preaching to the converted.

Again I submit that the JSF program was a politically motivated program because the political situation at the time was that the government did not want to pay for three separate programs.

 

[kcran567]

I agree. I don't buy the "one aircraft is more affordable" argument anymore and certainly will not do the job as well as 2-3 separate aircraft. The services would be far happier with a separate aircraft with as much in common as possible, but better suited to their particular needs. Maybe distinct aircraft could be purchased in lesser numbers overall because they would be more capable and effective. I still am hoping for a next generation yf-16/a-4/f-5 that would be a low cost solution for our allies needs and for domestic use as well. The f-35 is overkill for many allies who cant afford it, or it doesn't meet their needs or is more than what they need.

 

[GTX]

I agree. I don't buy the "one aircraft is more affordable" argument anymore and certainly will not do the job as well as 2-3 separate aircraft.

Hmmm…don't tell Boeing or the USN

Fighter:

Previously:

Now:

Bomber:

Previously:

Now:

Electronic warfare:

Previously:

Now:

Aerial refueler:

Previously:

Now:

Recon:

Previously:

Now:

 

[GTX]

Or SAAB (and some here) for that matter :


Fighter:

Bomber:

Recon:

Anti Shipping Strike:

;D

 

[GTX]

And let's not forget the Rafale with its "omnirole fighter" description:

Fighter/Strike:

Bomber:

Recon:

Refueler:

 

[sferrin]

I agree. I don't buy the "one aircraft is more affordable" argument anymore and certainly will not do the job as well as 2-3 separate aircraft.

This is probably going to come as a shock to you but the single-mission aircraft went out back in the days of the F-4. The A-10 is the last of a dead breed.

F-16: Mulitmission
F-15: multimission (note that nobody is buying F-15Cs, they're all buying multi-mission F-15E variants)
F/A-18:
F-14: became the "Bombcat"
Even the F-22 can drop bombs. (Though it would be a huge waste of a limited resource to do so.)

 

[bobbymike]

I agree. I don't buy the "one aircraft is more affordable" argument anymore and certainly will not do the job as well as 2-3 separate aircraft.

This is probably going to come as a shock to you but the single-mission aircraft went out back in the days of the F-4. The A-10 is the last of a dead breed.

F-16: Mulitmission
F-15: multimission (note that nobody is buying F-15Cs, they're all buying multi-mission F-15E variants)
F/A-18:
F-14: became the "Bombcat"
Even the F-22 can drop bombs. (Though it would be a huge waste of a limited resource to do so.)

sferrin/GTX who are you going to believe kran567 or your lying eyes?

 

[kcran567]

GTX/Sferrin I get what you guys are saying...and those are great examples. I was more targeting the F-35. The Gripen, F-18, and now the F-35 can be shoehorned to do all those diverse jobs. Yet the f-35 proves it isn't necessarily going to be more affordable or capable than 2-3 distinct aircraft. If the A-12 was an A-6 replacement, Do you think the F-18 is really better suited in that role? Range, etc? I think the A-12 would be better than the F-18 at least for that role. There would be affordability for 2-3 new aircraft if there was not the level of corruption going on. Thats why the F-35 is so damn expensive.

 

[GTX]

...If there was not the level of corruption going on. Thats why the F-35 is so damn expensive.

Care to elaborate?

 

[SpudmanWP]

Yet the f-35 proves it isn't necessarily going to be more affordable or capable than 2-3 distinct aircraft.

Where do people keep coming up with these numbers?


If you look at the F/A-18 (not he notional "Silent" one, but the standard Blk2) and compare it with an FRP F-35, you can only buy 1.25 F-18s for each F-35A.


Switch to the Rafale or Eurofighter and it's either even or in the F-35's favor.

 

[kcran567]

GTX and others, sorry with my rhetoric, its just that the low figure of $159M per aircraft hardly seems affordable. The claim of corruption is due to frustration that the JSF program was intended to be affordable. Even at $159M that is hardly affordable. Those who say it is, have you looked around? Attrition and readiness, will there be enough flying? Numbers are important if you look at history. Look what the Germans had at the end of WWII in spite of great technological advantage of their aircraft. Thats the scenario which will apply to the F-35 in real combat.

 

[SpudmanWP]

It depends on what you mean by $159 per F-35A.


Is it the cost to build one (REC Flyaway)?


Is it the cost to build one to include the Nonrecurring Cost (NRC) items (things that are not done for every fighter but change from year to year), this is called Total Flyaway.



Here is what is included in the latest NRC:

Nonrecurring Cost includes such items as the U.S. Air Force share of Production Non-Recurring Tooling per the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Production, Sustainment, and Follow-on Development (PSFD) Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and eight partner nations cooperating in the production, sustainment, and follow-on development of the JSF; as well as funding for Diminishing Manufacturing Sources(DMS)parts.

Then there is the final annual cost figure, Gross Weapon System. This includes the Total Flyaway and all the support costs. However, this last part will vary greatly from year-to-year since it includes much more than just tools, parts & manuals for the F-35.


For example, here are some items from this years support costs that are not part of a normal annual buy.

1. Funding for Radar Cross Section (RCS) verification facility at Hill AFB, UT is contained in Airframe PGSE and Avionics PGSE Cost Elements.
2. Support equipment for Depot activation and Squadron stand-up is included in the Airframe PGSE, Engine PGSE, and Avionics PGSE cost elements. Variability among these cost elements is directly related to the schedule for Depot activations and Squadron stand-up.

This year's budget also includes 2 Full Mission Simulators (last year had 4) which are not part of the normal annual buy.


As you can see many numbers can be thrown around so it is imperative that when talking cost, that both parties are referencing the same variables.


So, what is the $159?


Is it Rec Flyaway, Total Flyaway, or Gross Weapon System?

 

[bobbymike]

GTX and others, sorry with my rhetoric, its just that the low figure of $159M per aircraft hardly seems affordable. The claim of corruption is due to frustration that the JSF program was intended to be affordable. Even at $159M that is hardly affordable. Those who say it is, have you looked around? Attrition and readiness, will there be enough flying? Numbers are important if you look at history. Look what the Germans had at the end of WWII in spite of great technological advantage of their aircraft. Thats the scenario which will apply to the F-35 in real combat.

So we are approximately 100 aircraft into a 2400 to 3000 (including allies, etc.) production run and we are supposed to speculate/compare/contrast Me-262's and P-51 Mustangs. A little premature don't you think?

Besides at this point it looks like the US could have the largest AND most technologically advanced air force.

 

[sferrin]

GTX and others, sorry with my rhetoric, its just that the low figure of $159M per aircraft hardly seems affordable. The claim of corruption is due to frustration that the JSF program was intended to be affordable. Even at $159M that is hardly affordable. Those who say it is, have you looked around? Attrition and readiness, will there be enough flying? Numbers are important if you look at history. Look what the Germans had at the end of WWII in spite of great technological advantage of their aircraft. Thats the scenario which will apply to the F-35 in real combat.

Wut? Who's churning out five times as many fighters as the West?

 

[Triton]

Re-watching the Four Corners documentary "Reach for the Sky" yesterday, it appears that Alan Williams, Former Assistant Deputy Defence Minister of Canada believes that the Lockheed Martin marketing machine low-balled the cost of purchasing and maintaining the F-35 Lightning II to get an early purchase commitment from the government of Canada. Lockheed Martin set the expectation of $16 billion while the Auditor General of Canada after an audit stated that the cost of 65 aircraft was closer $25 billion. In addition, the government of Canada committed to the aircraft without a detailed comparison of other aircraft that could be used to replace the aging CF-18. The media in Canada has labeled the F-35 procurement a national scandal and fiasco. Hence, the appearance of corruption in the JSF program.

If a member of the government of Canada believes that Lockheed Martin low-balled the cost of the F-35, it calls into question the cost projections and the schedules that decision-makers used to make the initial JSF decision. Did Lockheed Martin deliberately misrepresent the cost and complexity of the F-35 program? What should we make of the assurances made by Lockheed Martin or the JSF program office concerning the capabilities of the aircraft?

 

[sferrin]

If a member of the government of Canada believes that Lockheed Martin low-balled the cost of the F-35, it calls into question the cost projections and the schedules that decision-makers used to make the initial JSF decision. Did Lockheed Martin deliberately misrepresent the cost and complexity of the F-35 program? What should we make of the assurances made by Lockheed Martin or the JSF program office concerning the capabilities of the aircraft?

By all means, let's make whatever hash of it we can. : (Real or otherwise.)

 

[GTX]

Re-watching the Four Corners documentary "Reach for the Sky" yesterday

Referencing that piece of drivel destroys your credibility straight away...

 

[GTX]

What should we make of the assurances made by Lockheed Martin or the JSF program office concerning the capabilities of the aircraft?

So, if you're not going to take what the JPO or LM (and their partners - how many times must people be told, this is not a simple one company development?!) both of whom have been audited numerous times and are responsible for the actual work to be performed, then who will you listen to? Perhaps Carlo Kopp, Peter Goon, Elric Palmer, Winslow Wheeler and all those other fools, none of which have any access to the details of the program, have never worked in such a program and have openly stated biases already? I am sure they will give the 'correct' answers! NOT!!!

 

[sublight_]

Besides at this point it looks like the US could have the largest AND most technologically advanced air force.

Could have?
The US already has the largest and most technologically advanced Air Force in the world....

The second largest force of aircraft in the world isn't another country.... It's the Navy....

 

[SOC]

Perhaps Carlo Kopp, Peter Goon, Elric Palmer, Winslow Wheeler and all those other fools, none of which have any access to the details of the program, have never worked in such a program and have openly stated biases already? I am sure they will give the 'correct' answers! NOT!!!

Funny APA should be mentioned. Remember the reduced performance minimum standards after the 2012 DOT&E report? 4.6 sustained g's at 15K feet (down from 5.3, down from 6.0), 63 seconds to accelerate from 0.8 to 1.2 Mach at 30K feet (down from 55), to name a few. Well, it's completely hilarious that those numbers are basically what APA "accused" the F-35's performance of being in the first place. It'd seem that a bunch of engineers and test pilots might have a slight clue. Aerodynamics, RCS calculations, fuel fractions, etc. do not work differently in the Southern Hemisphere.

The US already has the largest and most technologically advanced Air Force in the world....

The second largest force of aircraft in the world isn't another country.... It's the Navy....

Not that it's on the same technological level but China's air arms are not small. I'd bet the PLAAF is larger than the USN. I'd have to dig around and come up with some numbers because the ones published recently were laughably bad. Andreas might be able to come up with a credible number quicker.

 

[bobbymike]

Besides at this point it looks like the US could have the largest AND most technologically advanced air force.

Could have?
The US already has the largest and most technologically advanced Air Force in the world....

The second largest force of aircraft in the world isn't another country.... It's the Navy....

Yes of course but I was talking about the future force of F-22, F-35.

 

[flateric]

Thinking of closing that thread. I'm tired of 233 pages of continuous hysteria symptoms. There are many other playgrounds to play.

 

[Dragon029]

Although I sympathise, I don't think it would help much; you would likely then be dealing with the old issue of having multiple threads requiring moderation. While sometimes interesting, this thread does ultimately act as a containment field for dry debate.

 

[bobbymike]

Although I sympathise, I don't think it would help much; you would likely then be dealing with the old issue of having multiple threads requiring moderation. While sometimes interesting, this thread does ultimately act as a containment field for dry debate.

I agree it is a great release valve for the topic. This is a great 'Festivus' thread a place to air grievances ;D

 

[GTX]

This is a great 'Festivus' thread a place to air grievances

But where's our Festivus Pole?

Seriously though, having a single "venting station/pressure release valve" such as this thread prevents such discussions contaminating other threads (as has been the case in the past. Moreover, those who aren't interested can simply ignore the thread.

 

[Triton]

You forgot to mention Pierre Sprey in your list, GTX, former Pentagon analyst and member of the "Fighter Mafia." Again, members aren't actually reading what I am writing and going off on their own tangents. I never said that Carlo Kopp, Peter Goon, Elric Palmer, or Winslow Wheeler had the "correct answers. What I am saying is that when Lockheed Martin went into marketing mode, it set cost, development, and delivery schedule expectations. Much of the criticism that is directed at the JSF program is of Lockheed Martin's and the JPO's making by over-promising, under-delivering, and downplaying program risks and technical complexity. Should the customer have known better and have been more skeptical of Lockheed Martin's promises?

Further, contractor's in the JSF program have to fix issues with the aircraft so that it can meet current IOC deadlines. Or when it comes close to the IOC dates, will the JPO and Lockheed Martin have to re-set expectations?

 

[sferrin]

What I am saying is that when Lockheed Martin went into marketing mode, it set cost, development, and delivery schedule expectations. Much of the criticism that is directed at the JSF program is of Lockheed Martin's and the JPO's making by over-promising, under-delivering, and downplaying program risks and technical complexity. Should the customer have known better and have been more skeptical of Lockheed Martin's promises?

You might want to check Boeing's track record. Last I checked, some of them are doing time for their shenanigans. I can only imagine the levels of hysteria we'd be hearing today had the X-32 been chosen.

 

[GTX]

Perhaps Carlo Kopp, Peter Goon, Elric Palmer, Winslow Wheeler and all those other fools, none of which have any access to the details of the program, have never worked in such a program and have openly stated biases already? I am sure they will give the 'correct' answers! NOT!!!

Funny APA should be mentioned. Remember the reduced performance minimum standards after the 2012 DOT&E report? 4.6 sustained g's at 15K feet (down from 5.3, down from 6.0), 63 seconds to accelerate from 0.8 to 1.2 Mach at 30K feet (down from 55), to name a few. Well, it's completely hilarious that those numbers are basically what APA "accused" the F-35's performance of being in the first place. It'd seem that a bunch of engineers and test pilots might have a slight clue. Aerodynamics, RCS calculations, fuel fractions, etc. do not work differently in the Southern Hemisphere.

Its too bad they all but destroyed their credibility with so many other dubious claims, hyperbole, exaggeration, half truths, double-talk, and sometimes outright lies.

They also don't help themselves when they try to change their position on things...for instance with the Super Hornet. They originally wrote poetically about it being a wonderful aircraft after Kopp flew in it, then completely threw that aside when the RAAF actually purchased them and they proceeded to destroy them:

Original:

In a low speed post-merge manoeuvring fight, with a high off-boresight 4th generation missile and Helmet Mounted Display, the Super Hornet will be a very difficult opponent for any current Russian fighter, even the Su-27/30. The analogue and early generation digital flight controls with hard-wired or hard-coded AoA limiters used in the Russian aircraft are a generation behind the Super Hornet and a much more experienced pilot will be required for the Russian types to match the ease with which the Super Hornet handles high alpha flight regimes.

http://www.ausairpower.net/SuperBug.html

But then later on:

In conclusion, the Flanker in all current variants kinematically outclasses the Super Hornet in all high performance flight regimes. The only near term advantage the latest Super Hornets have over legacy Flanker variants is in the APG-79 AESA and radar signature reduction features, an advantage which will not last long given highly active ongoing Russian development effort in these areas. The supercruising Al-41F engine will further widen the performance gap in favour of the Flanker. What this means is that post 2010 the Super Hornet is uncompetitive against advanced Flankers in BVR combat, as it is now uncompetitive in close combat.

http://www.ausairpower.net/DT-SuperBug-vs-Flanker.html

Of course, adding this disclaimer to their original article just makes it all the funnier ;D:

APA Notice

This article predates the mid December, 2006, announcement by Defence that Super Hornets may be sought as gap fillers for the RAAF, and subsequent decision to acquire these aircraft. The article does not constitute an endorsement of that proposal in any fashion and should not be interpreted to be such by any parties. It concentrates primarily on the history and flying qualities of the aircraft. Any attempt to present this article as an endorsement of the Super Hornet decision will be considered to be intentional and mischievous misrepresentation.​

So I guess things do work differently in the southern hemisphere ... or do they? I guess we will just have to wait to see how many of the northern hemisphere naysayers change their tune on the F-35... :

 

[Triton]

What I am saying is that when Lockheed Martin went into marketing mode, it set cost, development, and delivery schedule expectations. Much of the criticism that is directed at the JSF program is of Lockheed Martin's and the JPO's making by over-promising, under-delivering, and downplaying program risks and technical complexity. Should the customer have known better and have been more skeptical of Lockheed Martin's promises?

You might want to check Boeing's track record. Last I checked, some of them are doing time for their shenanigans. I can only imagine the levels of hysteria we'd be hearing today had the X-32 been chosen.

So in other words, don't hate the playa; hate the game. :

It will be interesting to see what happens in Canada if they proceed with a competitive and transparent program to replace their 138 McDonnell Douglas CF-18 Hornet fighters. Is public opinion so poisoned against the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II due to the F-35 procurement scandal that the government may go with another contender? The Boeing F-18 Advanced Super Hornet perhaps?
I

 

[sferrin]

What I am saying is that when Lockheed Martin went into marketing mode, it set cost, development, and delivery schedule expectations. Much of the criticism that is directed at the JSF program is of Lockheed Martin's and the JPO's making by over-promising, under-delivering, and downplaying program risks and technical complexity. Should the customer have known better and have been more skeptical of Lockheed Martin's promises?

You might want to check Boeing's track record. Last I checked, some of them are doing time for their shenanigans. I can only imagine the levels of hysteria we'd be hearing today had the X-32 been chosen.

So in other words, don't hate the playa; hate the game. :

Wow, what color were the glasses you read that with? I'm saying, if you're going to criticize LM at least take a look at what the alternative was. Or should we just stop buying fighters since nobody can meet your precognition requirements?

 

[GTX]

It will be interesting to see what happens in Canada if they proceed with a competitive and transparent program to replace their 138 McDonnell Douglas CF-18 Hornet fighters.

And it will be predictable to see how the naysayers complain about it not being "a competitive and transparent program" when the F-35 is selected...as it WILL BE. :

 

[sferrin]

It will be interesting to see what happens in Canada if they proceed with a competitive and transparent program to replace their 138 McDonnell Douglas CF-18 Hornet fighters.

And it will be predictable to see how the naysayers complain about it not being "a competitive and transparent program" when the F-35 is selected...as it WILL BE. :

Shhhh. Don't ruin the surprise.