The F-35 Discussion Topic (No Holds Barred II)

[Triton]

Given the outrageous demands India has made of others I sure hope we don't offer them the F-35.

The "Make in India" campaign?

 

[sferrin]

Given the outrageous demands India has made of others I sure hope we don't offer them the F-35.

The "Make in India" campaign?

Make in India, transfer 100% tech, and then guarantee all planes made in India meet spec. Sure, we take all the risk and they get all the rewards. No thanks.

 

[LowObservable]

In no particular order:


I wouldn't go as far as too say that India will never get the F-35, but unless its AF is to contract drastically it needs to take care of other things first. Maybe it will be on the table in 2025...


"Clueless"? Team F-35 signed a contract to deliver a certain capability and so far has failed to meet it, and nobody on the procurement side is holding them to account for it.


And there are some people out there who could interview Kate Upton and come back with a load of quotes about conflating Z-axis battlesphere hyperconsiousness in the interconnected karmic RC/F/F/A/EA theater...

 

[sferrin]

"Clueless"? Team F-35 signed a contract to deliver a certain capability and so far has failed to meet it, and nobody on the procurement side is holding them to account for it.

Sure, there's not a single person in the government riding LM like a rented mule. : Just because they haven't cancelled the program doesn't mean they're not being held accountable. And hell, look at what Team Typhoon is getting away with. They've delivered so many broken jets that Germany has refused to continue accepting them. How many years has that program been "in service" now? Glass houses.

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/167781/germany-suspends-eurofighter-deliveries-after-discovering-new-defect.html

Or. . .maybe, just maybe, modern jets are complicated. Nah, that can't be it. Clearly all defense manufacturers are crooked and incompetent.

 

[SpudmanWP]

I seem to remember LM missing certain annual goals and not getting hundreds of millions in contract bonuses.

Sounds like being held accountable to me.

 

[Triton]

Team F-35 signed a contract to deliver a certain capability and so far has failed to meet it, and nobody on the procurement side is holding them to account for it.

Were you hoping for a federal lawsuit against Lockheed Martin?

 

[Triton]

"Norway proposes F-35 funding increase for 2016"
13 October, 2015 BY: Beth Stevenson London

Source:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/norway-proposes-f-35-funding-increase-for-2016-417698/

Building on its release of a Strategic Defence Review publication on 1 October, Norway has proposed a 9.8% real-term defence budget increase for 2016. This would see a near doubling of funding for the Lockheed Martin F-35, plus an authorisation request for six more.

Presented by the government on 7 October, the proposed budget will see the F-35 financially bolstered following the Norwegian chief of defence’s commitment to acquiring a planned 52 conventional take-off and landing F-35As.

The 2016 budget proposal includes a request to authorise procurement of an additional six aircraft, for delivery in 2020. The Norwegian parliament has already authorised the procurement of 22 of the 52 F-35s that Norway plans to procure, covering deliveries up to and including 2019.

“The majority of the increase comes from a near doubling of the funding related to the Norwegian acquisition of the F-35, which ensures that the Norwegian procurement of the F-35 will proceed as planned,” the government says.

“The overall priorities in the government’s budget proposal are in line with the recommendations presented by the chief of defence on 1 October in his strategic military review, and helps increase the defence budget’s share of Norway’s GNP to a projected 1.54%.”

The F-35 aircraft acquisition, alongside associated infrastructure – namely the development of its new base at Ørland Main Air Station – has been offered an allocation of NKr8.6 billion ($1.05 billion), from the total NKr49 billion (a rise of NKr4.29 billion from 2015 in real terms) proposal for 2016.

“While this proposal includes NKr1.1 billion re-allocated from the 2015 budget due to planned payments that have been postponed, this nevertheless constitutes a near doubling of the 2015 level,” the government says.

Norwegian Defence Minister Ine Eriksen Søreide adds that the funding for the F-35 and its base at Ørland represents Oslo’s commitment to protecting the nation in light of the security situation in Europe, as well as its ability to deter the use of force against Norway’s NATO allies.

The nation's Lockheed P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft will also receive additional funding to help bolster the patrol capability of Norway in the high sea, ahead of a planned phasing out of the aircraft between 2017 and 2020.

The budget proposal includes NKr35 million in additional funds for the six-strong Orion fleet, to facilitate longer and more frequent patrols in the high north.

Also included in the proposal is NKr82 million of additional funding to support the deployment of one Lockheed C-130J tactical transport and staff officers to support the UN’s Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali mission, for an additional 10 months.

 

[Dragon029]

http://www.defensenews.com/story/breaking-news/2015/10/14/f-35s-heavier-helmet-complicates-ejection-risks/73922710/

More info on the ejection seat issues & helmets:

Gen II weighed about 4.7lb; Gen III weighs 5.1lb. They're looking at a Lightweight Gen III which would be 4.67lb.

Failures occurred at 160kt and at both 103lb and 136lb.

Obviously helmet weight is a notable factor (these ejection envelopes weren't an issue with the Gen II), it's been identified however that the main issue is that when the main recovery chute deploys (when the ejection seat falls away and the pilot is flying feet-first into the airstream), it's the action of the head snapping back which causes the spinal damage. You can see this motion in this video, at about 0:59 (just step through it frame-by-frame or use YouTube's playback speed feature):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6HoIRoYlXM

In addition to designing a lighter helmet, the JPO is looking into two other fixes to reduce the potential for an increased risk of neck injury, DellaVedova said. First, the team is working on installing a switch on the seat for lightweight pilots that will delay deployment of the main parachute. Also, the program will mount a "head support panel," which is a fabric panel sewn between the parachute risers that will protect the pilot's head from moving backwards during the parachute opening. These two fixes will be introduced when the next upgrade of the ejection seat comes online near the end of 2016.All three fixes will be fully implemented by summer 2017, DellaVedova noted.

 

[Jeb]

Ejection videos...those aren't test dummies, I'm betting.

 

[Dragon029]

They are dummies; you can see this in particular with how they go completely limp after the seat drops away.

 

[LowObservable]

"Clueless"? Team F-35 signed a contract to deliver a certain capability and so far has failed to meet it, and nobody on the procurement side is holding them to account for it.

Sure, there's not a single person in the government riding LM like a rented mule. : Just because they haven't cancelled the program doesn't mean they're not being held accountable. And hell, look at what Team Typhoon is getting away with. They've delivered so many broken jets that Germany has refused to continue accepting them. How many years has that program been "in service" now? Glass houses.

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/167781/germany-suspends-eurofighter-deliveries-after-discovering-new-defect.html

Or. . .maybe, just maybe, modern jets are complicated. Nah, that can't be it. Clearly all defense manufacturers are crooked and incompetent.

And why do we know about this story? Because the customer stood up in public and said "this is unacceptable and by the way we don't care very much about what this does to your export sales." It'll get fixed faster that way.

 

[sferrin]

"Clueless"? Team F-35 signed a contract to deliver a certain capability and so far has failed to meet it, and nobody on the procurement side is holding them to account for it.

Sure, there's not a single person in the government riding LM like a rented mule. : Just because they haven't cancelled the program doesn't mean they're not being held accountable. And hell, look at what Team Typhoon is getting away with. They've delivered so many broken jets that Germany has refused to continue accepting them. How many years has that program been "in service" now? Glass houses.

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/167781/germany-suspends-eurofighter-deliveries-after-discovering-new-defect.html

Or. . .maybe, just maybe, modern jets are complicated. Nah, that can't be it. Clearly all defense manufacturers are crooked and incompetent.

And why do we know about this story? Because the customer stood up in public and said "this is unacceptable and by the way we don't care very much about what this does to your export sales." It'll get fixed faster that way.

I note that the other countries are content to continue accepting them. And just imagine the stink that would be made were this happening to the F-35. Will I get to read an article by you breathlessly gesticulating about how poorly the Typhoon program is being run and what a travesty it is that they still can't manage to get it right after declaring in service for X number of years? Of course not. Instead we get to read about the UK being Beta testers for the F-35. (I guess that would make Germany unhappy Beta testers for the Typhoon eh? )

 

[lastdingo]

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/release/3/167781/germany-suspends-eurofighter-deliveries-after-discovering-new-defect.html

Or. . .maybe, just maybe, modern jets are complicated. Nah, that can't be it. Clearly all defense manufacturers are crooked and incompetent.

Planes delivered with violations of manufacturing specifications is QM incompetence, not a case of 'complicated tech'.

Similarly, some defects of the NH90 were about such non-high tech issues such as too brittle floors.


Aviation companies that sell to military procurement agencies are not working nearly as well for those customers as for civilian customers. Corruption, politics, de facto blackmailing, bureaucrats with insufficient ambitions for their work and lying officers are the ingredients of the typical military aviation, shipbuilding or AFV procurement mess.
One of the msot obvious examples was the A400M, where Airbus pulled hundreds of the best engineers out in order to strengthen the A380 program and then displayed the most brazen and arrogant behavior to the public customers, expecting price growth coupled with not meeting promised specs. They only grew that antisocial once they knew it was too late for politicians to switch to one of the alternatives.
You won't find a display of incompetence or arrogance of LM about the JSF before the Boeing team was shut out. Later on it's no challenge at all.

 

[Jeb]

They are dummies; you can see this in particular with how they go completely limp after the seat drops away.

I'm betting they're cadavers. Mary Roach's book Stiff covers how cadavers are used for crash/ejection testing. http://www.maryroach.net/stiff.html

 

[sferrin]

Planes delivered with violations of manufacturing specifications is QM incompetence, not a case of 'complicated tech'.

Not even sure what to say about that. The mind boggles.

You won't find a display of incompetence or arrogance of LM about the JSF before the Boeing team was shut out. Later on it's no challenge at all.

You have some evidence to back your claims right?

 

[lastdingo]

When someone claims absence of something the burden of proof is never on him because absence of something cannot be proved in any but the simplest cases. Feel free to point at LM arrogance or incompetence during the bidding phase if you want to falsify my claim.

Meanwhile, if you don't know about LM arrogance or LM incompetence post-winning the tender, you won't see it no matter how one points you at it, so why should I vainly repeat the obvious?

 

[sferrin]

Meanwhile, if you don't know about LM arrogance or LM incompetence post-winning the tender, you won't see it no matter how one points you at it, so why should I vainly repeat the obvious?

If it's so easy to come by you shouldn't have any problem producing it then should you? Run along now. Gather the evidence to support your claim.

 

[sferrin]

As previously mentioned in Post #1214.

 

[marauder2048]

As previously mentioned in Post #1214.

More conditional language in that AvWeek piece than in the entire F-35 SDD contract. I found the comparison to how Saab manages the Swedish Air Force Gripens particularly irrelevant
along with the Block 60 and F-15K comparisons as those EW systems were and are unique to those countries (the UAE may actually own the design rights to Falcon Edge). And asking the RAF about F-35 has as much informational value as asking the RAF about Trident.

 

[AeroFranz]

I note that the other countries are content to continue accepting them. And just imagine the stink that would be made were this happening to the F-35. Will I get to read an article by you breathlessly gesticulating about how poorly the Typhoon program is being run and what a travesty it is that they still can't manage to get it right after declaring in service for X number of years? Of course not. Instead we get to read about the UK being Beta testers for the F-35. (I guess that would make Germany unhappy Beta testers for the Typhoon eh? )

What do you care about what happens in other countries to other aircraft? You are not buying Typhoons, it's not your tax payer dollars being used for it.
More importantly, how do Typhoon program troubles absolve LM from delivering a product in accordance to what was contractually stipulated? there is no law of physics that says that if one program is poorly managed, then all other programs around the world will befall a similar fate.

European governments should hold TYphoon management accountable, just like the US government and military branches should hold LM accountable.

 

[Triton]

"F-35 Customers Funding U.S.-Based Software Update Labs"
Oct 16, 2015 Bill Sweetman | Aerospace Daily & Defense Report

Source:
http://aviationweek.com/defense/f-35-customers-funding-us-based-software-update-labs

Foreign air forces using the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter are being compelled to build and fund $150 million software laboratories, based in the U.S. and almost 50% staffed by U.S. personnel, that generate data crucial to the fighter’s ability to identify new radio-frequency threats.

This regime is more stringent and far-reaching than earlier U.S. fighter export deals. Those usually withheld key software — known as source code — from the customer, but in most cases allowed local users to manage their own “threat libraries,” data that allowed the electronic warfare (EW) system to identify radio-frequency threats, with in-country, locally staffed facilities.

For the U.K. in particular, the reliance on U.S.-located laboratories looks like a pullback from its earlier position. In 2006, concern over access to JSF technology reached the national leadership level, and prompted a declaration, by U.S. President George W. Bush and U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair, that “both governments agree that the U.K. will have the ability to successfully operate, upgrade, employ, and maintain the JSF such that the U.K. retains operational sovereignty over the aircraft.”

That promise seemingly contrasts with the severe limits now being imposed on non-U.S. access to the system.

Concerns about the lack of sovereignty and access to the core system — since customer laboratory personnel will not be co-located with operating units — are being voiced. A retired senior officer with the Royal Air Force comments that “the non-U.S. operators are going to have to take a very great deal on trust. Further, ‘rubbish in – rubbish out’ is still going to hold sway and I doubt that the non-U.S. customers will be able to check what is going in.” Security arrangements “seem to go a lot further and deeper” than on earlier platforms, he says.

Another source close to the U.K. user community notes that Lockheed Martin has advertised the capability of the “fusion engine” — the software that combines inputs from different sensors and datalinks — to identify targets and implement rules of engagement automatically. But if the logic of the fusion engine itself is not understood at the U.K.’s operational level, he says, “You can imagine that this slaughters our legal stance on a clear, unambiguous and sovereign kill chain.”

The restrictions are also likely to be cumbersome. By contrast, “Swedish air force Gripens are often updated between sorties,” a Saab spokesman says. Signals intercepted and recorded by the fighter’s EW system on one sortie can be analyzed and the system updated in hours.

It’s not clear who, ultimately, would control the use of the foreign-funded laboratories, which will depend on host U.S. bases for power, communications and access. Lockheed Martin referred all questions on this topic to the JSF program office (JSFPO), which did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

But even the current security regime is the result of a compromise by the U.S. In September 2014, JSFPO director Lt. Gen. Christopher Bogdan indicated that the foreign-owned laboratories would allow the operators more access to the system than they would otherwise have enjoyed. This suggests that the initial U.S. position was that foreign nationals would not be involved with reprogramming at all.

The JSFPO will not be the final U.S. authority on security measures. That is the Low Observables/Counter Low Observables Executive Committee (LO/CLO ExCom), the third and highest level of a special process of reviewing stealth technology transfers, managed by the Defense Technology Security Administration. Of about 700 requests for the export of stealth-related technology each year, only around 30 require the attention of the ExCom, with the rest approved or rejected at lower levels.

The mission data files (MDFs) generated in the U.S. labs are sensitive because they are essential to the aircraft’s stealth characteristics. They include information that allows onboard software to build a so-called “blue line” flightpath that avoids exposing its less-stealthy viewing angles to hostile radar. This process is based on a highly detailed model of the aircraft’s radar cross-section against all known threats and at all aspect angles, so any compromise of that data would be potentially catastrophic.

The MDFs also include target models that the sensor system uses to fuse radar, passive electronic and electro-optical signals into a single set of target tracks. “Reprogramming used to be about survivability,” says RAF Air Commodore Linc Taylor, assistant Chief of Staff of Capability Delivery for Combat Air and Air ISTAR, “Now it’s about survivability and effectiveness.”

The MDFs are twice as large as the equivalent data load in the F-22, the Air Force has said. There are 12 packages covering different regions.

The Pentagon’s director of operational test and evaluation, Michael Gilmore, has stressed the importance of the MDF process to the F-35’s capability and warned of delays. “Mission data load development and testing is a critical path to combat capability for Block 2B and Block 3F,” Gilmore said in his fiscal 2014 report. “Accuracy of threat identification and location depend on how well the mission data loads are optimized to perform in ambiguous operational environments.” Software and hardware used to create the MDFs was held by Lockheed Martin at Fort Worth for three years after its planned delivery to the first government reprogramming laboratory, delaying its delivery, DOT&E says.

The JSF program is standing up two centers to produce and update MDFs, at Eglin AFB, Florida, and NAS Point Mugu, California. The western center will host a lab to support Japanese and Israeli F-35s. An Australia/U.K. facility and a laboratory to support Norway and Italy will be established at Eglin. Lockheed Martin was awarded a contract to build the Australia/U.K. facility in April. According to an Australian government document, the lab will have a staff of about 110 people, of whom 50 will be U.S. nationals, and the international partners will cover all its operating costs.

Until now, even the most advanced EW systems exported by the U.S. have included provisions for local updating. The United Arab Emirates uses a system of “object codes,” a form of middleware that allows its operators to program threats into the Northrop Grumman EW system on the F-16 Block 60. South Korea has an in-country reprogramming tool for the F-15K’s ALQ-135M that allows its air force to create, modify and maintain mission data and to produce mission data files, according to Northrop Grumman.

 

[quellish]

At least one F-35 pilot is affected by the weight restriction, according to Joint Program Office spokesman Joe DellaVedova, who added that the rule was announced Aug. 27. He said the issue does not affect the first and only female F-35 pilot, Lt. Col. Christina Mau, the 33rd Operations Group deputy commander.

Did the JPO just call one of it's pilots fat?


(note: I myself do not think Lt. Col. Mau is fat)

 

[marauder2048]

At least one F-35 pilot is affected by the weight restriction, according to Joint Program Office spokesman Joe DellaVedova, who added that the rule was announced Aug. 27. He said the issue does not affect the first and only female F-35 pilot, Lt. Col. Christina Mau, the 33rd Operations Group deputy commander.

Did the JPO just call one of it's pilots fat?


(note: I myself do not think Lt. Col. Mau is fat)

Sounds like the JPO outed one of their male pilots for having an eating disorder. No way the guy is that thin naturally.

 

[Triton]

I can imagine that the weight restriction could be misinterpreted as a form of gender discrimination. This is probably the reason that Lt. Col. Christina Mau is mentioned specifically.

 

[marauder2048]

I can imagine that the weight restriction could be misinterpreted as a form of gender discrimination. This is probably the reason that Lt. Col. Christina Mau is mentioned specifically.

The only victim of discrimination so far is the ACES 5 ejection seat. Keeping the Brits on board has its costs...

 

[Triton]

"MBDA's new air-to-air missile could provide S. Korea with air superiority over N. Korea"
2015/10/13 18:18

Source:
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2015/10/13/92/0301000000AEN20151013008400315F.html

SEOUL, Oct. 13 (Yonhap) -- A newly developed airborne missile by European missile manufacturer MBDA will provide South Korea with "air superiority" over North Korea and other powerful neighbors if they are loaded onto the F-35 combat fighters to be delivered to the country in the coming years, the firm's official said Tuesday.

Under a deal signed last year, South Korea will bring in 40 F-35A jet fighters, the fifth-generation platform with stealth capacities from Lockheed Martin, from 2018 to 2021 to better guard against North Korean threats.

The F-35A fleet will initially be equipped with the U.S.' AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM), but through software integration, the jet fighters could gain compatibility with MBDA's new missile Meteor, export sales executive Leo Alfano said in a press roundtable in Seoul.

The most notable of Meteor's functions is its superior no-escape zone, or operation range, which is about three times larger than that of the U.S. AMRAAM, Alfano said.

With Meteor's expanded range, three combat jets equipped with the missiles could cover the entire length of the inter-Korean land border, which is more cost effective despite the higher per-unit price of the Meteor, according to the MBDA official.

Asked how many combat jets are needed to perform the same job with AMRAAM missiles, he said about a dozen will be needed.

The introduction of the Meteor will provide South Korea with "air superiority" over the advancing air power of North Korea and other neighbors like China and Russia, he noted.

With funding from Britain, MBDA has developed the technology to integrate the European missile to the U.S.-made F-35 and if South Korea chooses to adopt it, MBDA will provide the integration technology, he said.

The Meteor is a strategic weapon developed under a six-nation joint program involving Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Sweden, to equip their fleets of Eurofighter Typhoons and F-35s.

 

[lastdingo]

... as if South Korea hadn't already air superiority over NK once it merely lifts a little finger...

 

[marauder2048]

... as if South Korea hadn't already air superiority over NK once it merely lifts a little finger...

That was my thought as well on the A2A front. But the DPRK IADS is no joke.

 

[lastdingo]

Why? What do they have that's still to be expected to be in working order?
They've had huge cash shortages since the early 90's, after all.

All I saw so far was about the having SA-2, -3, -5; that's 60's equipment, without even the famous SA-6 of Yom Kippur War fame.
Their SA-7 are likely defective by now, and were rather harmless 30 years ago already.

I wouldn't be surprised if they cannibalised old SAM solid rocket fuels for other missiles or converted SAMs into SRBMs with chemical warheads.

 

[quellish]

Why? What do they have that's still to be expected to be in working order?

Artillery. Lots of it.

 

[lastdingo]

That's not going to help much. Even 57 mm is no real threat above 4,000 m, and Western air power (as available to South Korea) routinely engages ground troops from above 4,500 m.

edit: Much AAA does of course limit the use of helicopters in daylight, which is pretty bad over a mountainous terrain.

 

[quellish]

That's not going to help much. Even 57 mm is no real threat above 4,000 m, and Western air power (as available to South Korea) routinely engages ground troops from above 4,500 m.

edit: Much AAA does of course limit the use of helicopters in daylight, which is pretty bad over a mountainous terrain.

I did not say "Anti Aircraft Artillery". I said artillery.

 

[Triton]

F-35C Completes Sea Trials Aboard USS Dwight D. Eisenhower

Published on Oct 16, 2015

The F-35 Lightning II Pax River Integrated Test Force (ITF) completed its second F-35C developmental test (DT-II) phase Oct. 10, 2015. DT-II was conducted aboard the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69). During the tests, the team completed 66 catapults and 66 arrestments across 17 flights, logged 26.5 flight hours and achieved a total of 280 flight test points and 17 logistics test and evaluation test points. The testing was completed six days ahead of schedule.

https://youtu.be/Y4bX8k6UdM4

 

[Dragon029]

I did not say "Anti Aircraft Artillery". I said artillery.

lastdingo had been asking what was left of their IADS.

 

[marauder2048]

Why? What do they have that's still to be expected to be in working order?
They've had huge cash shortages since the early 90's, after all.

All I saw so far was about the having SA-2, -3, -5; that's 60's equipment, without even the famous SA-6 of Yom Kippur War fame.
Their SA-7 are likely defective by now, and were rather harmless 30 years ago already.

I wouldn't be surprised if they cannibalised old SAM solid rocket fuels for other missiles or converted SAMs into SRBMs with chemical warheads.

Those cash shortages have long since been rectified; rare earths are in high demand especially since China has been throttling their own output.

Given that we've seen fairly modern Chinese-origin TELs in DPRK parades it's not unreasonable to assume that the North Koreans
have improved air defense elements as well. And there's that rapprochement with Russia...

 

[lastdingo]

Those cash shortages have long since been rectified; rare earths are in high demand especially since China has been throttling their own output.

I don't think so. According to CIA World Factbook:

North Korea

Exports: $3.834 billion (2013 est.) $3.955 billion (2012 est.)


Imports: $4.647 billion (2013 est.) $4.832 billion (2012 est.)
They're bleeding out by almost a billion dollars annually, which is

GDP (official exchange rate): $28 billion (2013 est.)

approx. 4 % of GDP, and they have

Debt - external: $5 billion (2013 est.)

already!

North Korea still has huge trade problems and is still extremely short on foreign currency. It simply cannot set up a respectable "IADS". Its air defences are numerous, but weak (and the missile systems are likely mostly inoperative) - even by 1970's standards.

No country needs better aircraft than late F-4 / early F-16 to wage air war against North Korea's with ease if its air force personnel is competent.

 

[marauder2048]

Those cash shortages have long since been rectified; rare earths are in high demand especially since China has been throttling their own output.

I don't think so. According to CIA World Factbook:

North Korea

Exports: $3.834 billion (2013 est.) $3.955 billion (2012 est.)


Imports: $4.647 billion (2013 est.) $4.832 billion (2012 est.)
They're bleeding out by almost a billion dollars annually, which is

GDP (official exchange rate): $28 billion (2013 est.)

approx. 4 % of GDP, and they have

Debt - external: $5 billion (2013 est.)

already!

North Korea still has huge trade problems and is still extremely short on foreign currency. It simply cannot set up a respectable "IADS". Its air defences are numerous, but weak (and the missile systems are likely mostly inoperative) - even by 1970's standards.

No country needs better aircraft than late F-4 / early F-16 to wage air war against North Korea's with ease if its air force personnel is competent.

All old estimates before China began restricting its rare earths exports. A sizable chunk of NK's rare earths are sold to Japan under the table.

 

[lastdingo]

All old estimates before China began restricting its rare earths exports.

Actually, it's EXACTLY the opposite of what you claim here.
Back in 2012 the PRC began to ease its rare earths export restrictions which had been in place for years by that time.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-ends-rare-earth-minerals-export-quotas-1420441285

 

[marauder2048]

All old estimates before China began restricting its rare earths exports.

Actually, it's EXACTLY the opposite of what you claim here.
Back in 2012 the PRC began to ease its rare earths export restrictions which had been in place for years by that time.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-ends-rare-earth-minerals-export-quotas-1420441285

Did you read the entire article? There are many non-reviewable, extra-legal mechanisms to restrict rare earths exports.

 

[lastdingo]

Oh boy, did you already forget how you asserted that

China began restricting its rare earths exports

after 2013?


It had its rare earths exports restricted many years before 2013, period.

I only claimed

Back in 2012 the PRC began to ease its rare earths export restrictions

not that it abolished them entirely, so you didn't even correct me on anything.


Your assertions that North Korea solved its trade and foreign currency liquidity issues post-2013 is wrong, and worse: Even if it had done so, it would certainly not have built respectable IADS within less than two years. So no, NK is still piss poor, and still incapable of modernizing its military. Its military is still stuck in the 1960's and South Korea does not face any qualitative challenge by NK.