CiTrus90 said:
I beg your pardon bring_it_on and marauder, I didn't mean to say "only" focused but rather more focused on the aircraft portion of the system.
Lockheed appears to be the only contender offering a supersonic capable aircraft with an afterburner, while Boeing, unless they will pull an ace up their sleeves, seems to be playing its effort on the black diamond technology as their triumph card.
So, once again, in my opinion, they seem to be focused more on one portion of the whole training system (the flying one) rather than on the whole.
Hmmm. That's a good point. If the three performance areas are:
Simulator visual acuity and performance
Sustained G &
aircraft sustainment
don't you pretty much have to focus on the aircraft portion of the system?
I'm not sure how mature the training tech is but if it's anything like the VR/Gaming industry there's not going to be much that separates the teams. You've either got the requirements checked off or you don't. Perhaps differentiators e.g. open system based - some easy method to upgrade modules going forward, COTS video processors, etc. The tech changes so rapidly that it's got to be cheap and quick to add capabilities as they become available.
My point is that the airframe may well be the sexiest part of the program - way to clearly stand apart from the competition.
For LM, if you've got an airframe already, and its engine includes an afterburner then you may as well keep it. The T-50A will have to lug around the extra 500 lbs of engine all the time. That will increase acquisition cost as well as cost of operations. On the other hand it will help to meet the sustained G objective among other things. But if the competition can meet the same requirements w/o the burner then I'd suspect LM will be at a disadvantage in the sustainment arena. The AE's here will know better what's possible based on the designs, guess of the weight and documented engine choices.
The real advantage for T-50A seems to be that it's ready - today and you don't have to look far to see that LM's marketing group is certainly focused in this area. Since the USAF's got the Pacer Classic III program that extends the life of 150 T-38's to 2029 the 'ready - today' feature might be less convincing.
Isn't IOC 2023 or 24 & FOC 2034? That's 4 airframes a month - LRIP rates. Neither helps with the 'ready-now' argument
Recall back in February that LM decided against a clean sheet design with Skunk Works GM Rob Weiss stating a new plane would be 8x more expensive than the T-50A. Weiss also said their new design would not meet the USAF's IOC date without significant schedule risk and unacceptable levels of concurrency.
Might be true. Might not. Could be they made a corporate decision based on the risk of program loss (based on the # of competitors) and decided the FUD sales pitch (fear, uncertainty & doubt) would hurt Boeing and NG more than anything else.
Lara Seligman (in DefenseNews, 2/11/16) reported Weiss said, “At the end of the day, it costs more, takes longer, is higher risk and does not add any capability beyond what our modernized T-50 will do”.
At least the USAF expects to enter a CRADA for the FA-50. This will lend credibility to offering the FA-50 around the world for all those countries looking for an aircraft with it's capabilities - also using US military assistance $'s. Not sure if it helps with T-X or not. Maybe that ends up being a consolation prize if the T-50A doesn't work out. Personally, with countries around the world looking for ~500 fighters a year I think that this has been LM's focus the entire time. They 'own' the US$85Million fighter market with the F-35. They were looking for a US$30Million 'entry-level' model. What better than one that can be sold using US taxpayer dollars. The T-X would be a nice win for them but it's not the cake.
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NG has the existing F-35 center fuselage production line. They made an announcement at least a year ago that they had signed the company that helped build that line, onto the T-X program. Wouldn't be surprised if they've already got plans to build more than one airframe that existing line. Whether that's NGAD/FA-XX or T-X we'll have to see. Either way I don't see them 'coming to the party' without a solution to spin up N400 production quickly. But again, at such low rates of production it probably doesn't matter too much other than to nix the LM 'ready - today' argument.
According the article I referenced earlier the T-38 can't maintain airspeed and altitude in a 5G turn. Global Security.org's TX description included the following...
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According to a July 2015 statement from the USAF's Air Education and Training Command, the service wanted an aircraft capable of 7.5g turns “while losing no more than 2,000ft of vertical altitude and 10% of the initial airspeed”. The sustained G maneuver would be flown with a standard configuration (i.e., clean with no external stores), at or above 80% fuel weight (relative to maximum fuel capacity), steady state flight, and standard day conditions. The maneuver will begin in level flight (flight path angle no lower than zero and no higher than two degrees nose high), wings level (+/- 5 degrees of bank), at or above 15,000 feet pressure altitude, and at or below 0.9M. From this point, the pilot shall immediately initiate bank and back pressure to achieve the sustained G. The sustained G must be maintained for a minimum of 140 continuous degrees. The pilot may begin reducing the load factor and rolling out after a minimum of 140 degrees in order to roll out at approximately 180 degrees of turn.
The flight path angle shall be no lower than 15 degrees nose low and the aircraft shall descend to no lower than 13,000 feet pressure altitude during any portion of the entire 180-degree maneuver. There is no power setting specified for this maneuver. The aircraft may lose no more than 10% of the initial airspeed during the 180-degree maneuver. There are no specified degrees of turn for roll in or roll out. “Approximately 180 degrees of turn” is meant to describe a recognizable maneuver without mandating exactly 180 degrees. There is no specified length of time for the 140-degree portion of the maneuver or for the 180-degree maneuver as a whole.
Minimum acceptable load factor will be 6.5 sustained for a minimum of 140 degrees. The lowest load factor registered during the 140-degree period will establish sustained G for the maneuver. For example, if the aircraft maintains 7.2Gs for less than 140 degrees and then drops to 6.9Gs by the end of the 140-degree period, 6.9Gs will be used as the maximum sustained G. There is no requirement to exceed 7.5Gs.
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So the N400 must be a better design than the T-38 for the sustained G requirement - w/o the afterburner - or they (and Boeing) have got nothing. My point is that NG is probably just as focused on the airframe but they're strategic plan is different than LM. They're doing what's necessary to win T-X.
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I can't imagine any advantage that Boeing has w/Black Diamond will be obvious w/the test article. I get your point that it might be the "ace of their sleeve" but I guess we won't know until the bids are opened. Not sure it will make a huge difference in the program outcome though.
As I understand it, Black Diamond is supposed to drop costs by the 10th airframe that you see in the 100th airframe today. Since T-X is based on simulator visual acuity and performance, sustained G & aircraft sustainment it doesn't give much precedent to the acquisition cost of a US$20-30million airframe, especially if sustainment costs are amortized over 30-50 years w/Billion dollar AETC budgets.
It's also going to be hard for Boeing to get past the KC-46 problems. It's not fair to them since it's a completely different program but a lot of folks can't get past the fact that the KC-10 has been around for a long time. How do you piss through US$5Billion on something that's been done before? Boeing builds ~50 737's per month. With the budgets as tight as they and, more importantly, the T-38's aging out in 2029 will the USAF want to risk an award to Boeing for whom 350 over 9 or 10 years is just not on their radar screen? Maybe other countries will purchase T-X. I don't know where the figure of 1000 comes from. Just doesn't add up.
Boeing can't seem to get firing on 8 cylinders. They are definitely a money pit. Perhaps working w/Saab will make a difference. For the folks in St. Louis, I hope so.