I was more pointing out that they might be jittery and/or expecting to potentially be attacked eventually - which might change the mentality.
As for what they thought they were shooting at - we don't yet know the provenance of the tweets & radio chatter with 100% certainty. An AN-26 has less than half the cruise speed - so that'd be pretty incompetent of the operator. Not that any of it makes a difference.
I think the fact that it was 1000ft above the level of restricted airspace just suggests that the restrictions weren't aggressive enough to keep airliners safe.
Story time!
I was in the Navy on 9-11-01. Coming back from morning PT and heard someone shout out "hey, a plane just hit the World Trade Center!"
Late October 2001, my sub was on the way out on patrol, and we had a ~35ft Weldcraft aluminum fishing boat come around from behind an island up on plane and point straight at us at pretty significant distance. I call it out, like a good lookout is supposed to. And I keep watching it, because it is pointed RIGHT at us. Do a 360 scan, double check on the Weldcraft, do another scan, double check on the Weldcraft, etc.
I'm pretty sure they didn't see us, because we were also heading right at them, and the forests behind us are so dark a green they're almost black. Plus, we're a sub. Total width of what's sticking out of the water is minimal. But they're acting like a threat so I'm getting nervous and not liking it. They keep getting closer and closer, minute by minute. I tell the officer of the deck that if I yell "down" he needs to duck and cover his ears, because he's ahead of my muzzle if below it. Our TM1 walks forward of the sail with an M203. I'm finally standing on top of the sail with my M16 braced on the periscope fairing, waiting to have to do something.
Knowing that as soon as I pulled that trigger I was getting court-martialed. Whether I did right or wrong, I was going to be court-martialed.
Fortunately, that was right about the time that one of those 7m RHIBs with 3x outboards hanging off the back went screaming past the sub, with a Coast Guard boarding team onboard. I swear he was doing over 60mph on the water, that 21ft long boat had 2x 220hp outboards on it!
So I can completely believe troops deciding to shoot regardless.
My guess as well.
The new Su-25ML of Azeri AF, during an exercice in Kazakhstan.
View: https://youtu.be/wGSWaMLn6EI?feature=shared
Oh, I like that nose art!
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