SpaceX (general discussion)

RyanC said:
ATF is dealing with 290,000+ comments for receiver rule; and still plan to issue it in June 2022. Previously, they dealt with 36,000~ comments for bumpstocks.

Meanwhile, the FAA is dragging their feet on only 19,000~ comments for the Boca Chica EIA.

This does show that volume of comments are not an obstacle if the rule/process is heavily desired by those at the top.

My personal hunch, which is sadly unsupported; since I don't have any contacts "in the know" is that elements are nudging the FAA to "thumb the scale" just enough that SLS flies first.

If SLS flies first, even if it only beats Starship by a week, things will be great.

If however, Starship beats SLS -- that's going to be quite uncomfortable, because remember, back in 2014, then NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said:

"Let's be very honest again. We don't have a commercially available heavy lift vehicle. Falcon 9 Heavy may someday come about. It's on the drawing board right now. SLS is real. You've seen it down at Michoud. We're building the core stage. We have all the engines done, ready to be put on the test stand at Stennis... I don't see any hardware for a Falcon 9 Heavy, except that he's going to take three Falcon 9s and put them together and that becomes the Heavy. It's not that easy in rocketry."

If both Falcon Heavy AND Starship fly before SLS; even the dumbest congressman will start asking hard questions, which will be rather uncomfortable.

Yes, I know there are elements who want Starship:

DOD is warming up to it's potential to rapidly deploy satellite constellations; a vital national security need as space weaponry becomes more prevalent, while the NASA Science community is warming up to the idea of HLVs, as long as they're not the one paying for HLVs. (SLS is a threat to science, because SLS funding sucks away money for science spacecraft).

But they don't have enough influence (yet) to be decisive. I think what we're seeing here within NASA and other government agencies associated with space is a generational switch comparable to the "Bomber Mafia" of the 1940 to 1960s, which was slowly supplanted by the "Fighter Mafia" post-Vietnam in the US Air Force.

As I said before, I can't prove any of this, as I'm an outsider looking in, with no contacts within the bureaucracy.
Click to expand...
That's a good way to get yourself branded a conspiracy theorist. Ask me how I know. One only need look at how the administration has treated Tesla to see that Starship has a long road ahead. Imagine how fast the Senate Launch System slop trough dries up the day Starship shows what a waste SLS is. Lot a politicians will be screaming that day.
 
RyanC said:
This does show that volume of comments are not an obstacle if the rule/process is heavily desired by those at the top.
Click to expand...
I think Hanlon's Razor is more likely here with staffing issues likely to blame; yes the FAA as a whole is a much larger organisation than the ATF, but the FAA's Office of Commercial Space Transportation specifically has been dealing with staffing issues for several years now, with it being an NTSB-highlighted issue surrounding the cause of the 2015 Virgin Galactic mishap, and with it being brought up as a reason for delays to Falcon 9's launch cadence a couple of years ago.

I don't know if they still have a staffing issue, but:
1. Bureaucratic corrective actions are rarely fast, particularly when it involves increasing budgets.
2. It seems probable that within the FAA's OCST and/or other space divisions, only a small fraction would be involved in doing spaceport / launch complex environmental assessments given how rare it is for one to be stood up.
 
Dragon029 said:
RyanC said:
This does show that volume of comments are not an obstacle if the rule/process is heavily desired by those at the top.
Click to expand...
I think Hanlon's Razor is more likely here with staffing issues likely to blame; yes the FAA as a whole is a much larger organisation than the ATF, but the FAA's Office of Commercial Space Transportation specifically has been dealing with staffing issues for several years now, with it being an NTSB-highlighted issue surrounding the cause of the 2015 Virgin Galactic mishap, and with it being brought up as a reason for delays to Falcon 9's launch cadence a couple of years ago.

I don't know if they still have a staffing issue, but:
1. Bureaucratic corrective actions are rarely fast, particularly when it involves increasing budgets.
2. It seems probable that within the FAA's OCST and/or other space divisions, only a small fraction would be involved in doing spaceport / launch complex environmental assessments given how rare it is for one to be stood up.
Click to expand...
I hope that's all it is. Seeing US politicians go after Elon personally, the way this administration snubs Tesla, and the way they have no problem using government agencies to go after those they don't like, well, I'll wait and see.
 
RyanC said:
ATF is dealing with 290,000+ comments for receiver rule; and still plan to issue it in June 2022. Previously, they dealt with 36,000~ comments for bumpstocks.

Meanwhile, the FAA is dragging their feet on only 19,000~ comments for the Boca Chica EIA.

This does show that volume of comments are not an obstacle if the rule/process is heavily desired by those at the top.

My personal hunch, which is sadly unsupported; since I don't have any contacts "in the know" is that elements are nudging the FAA to "thumb the scale" just enough that SLS flies first.

If SLS flies first, even if it only beats Starship by a week, things will be great.

If however, Starship beats SLS -- that's going to be quite uncomfortable, because remember, back in 2014, then NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said:

"Let's be very honest again. We don't have a commercially available heavy lift vehicle. Falcon 9 Heavy may someday come about. It's on the drawing board right now. SLS is real. You've seen it down at Michoud. We're building the core stage. We have all the engines done, ready to be put on the test stand at Stennis... I don't see any hardware for a Falcon 9 Heavy, except that he's going to take three Falcon 9s and put them together and that becomes the Heavy. It's not that easy in rocketry."

If both Falcon Heavy AND Starship fly before SLS; even the dumbest congressman will start asking hard questions, which will be rather uncomfortable.

Yes, I know there are elements who want Starship:

DOD is warming up to it's potential to rapidly deploy satellite constellations; a vital national security need as space weaponry becomes more prevalent, while the NASA Science community is warming up to the idea of HLVs, as long as they're not the one paying for HLVs. (SLS is a threat to science, because SLS funding sucks away money for science spacecraft).

But they don't have enough influence (yet) to be decisive. I think what we're seeing here within NASA and other government agencies associated with space is a generational switch comparable to the "Bomber Mafia" of the 1940 to 1960s, which was slowly supplanted by the "Fighter Mafia" post-Vietnam in the US Air Force.

As I said before, I can't prove any of this, as I'm an outsider looking in, with no contacts within the bureaucracy.
Click to expand...
If you knew anything about the SLS scheduling, the launch flows and technicalities which I cannot discuss here as it is mostly L2 on NSF you’d see why this is unlikely.
 
NASA, Axiom to Discuss First Private Astronaut Space Station Mission

NASA experts will join a virtual news conference hosted by Axiom Space to preview the launch of Axiom Mission 1 (Ax-1), the first private astronaut mission to the International Space Station. The briefing will take place at 11 a.m. EST Monday, Feb. 28.


The virtual press conference will be available on Axiom Space’s YouTube channel at:


https://www.youtube.com/axiomspace


The Ax-1 launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Crew Dragon spacecraft is targeted for 2:46 p.m. EDT Wednesday, March 30, at from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.


During the 10-day mission, which includes eight days aboard the space station, the four-person multi-national crew will complete more than 25 research experiments developed for microgravity in collaboration with health and science organizations across the globe.


Briefing participants are:


Kathy Lueders, associate administrator, Space Operations, NASA
Robyn Gatens, director, International Space Station, NASA
Phil McAllister, director, Commercial Spaceflight, NASA
Michael Suffredini, president and chief executive officer, Axiom
Michael López-Alegría, Ax-1 crew commander, Axiom
Christian Maender, director, In-Space Research and Manufacturing, Axiom
Benjamin Reed, senior director, Human Spaceflight Programs, SpaceX
To participate, media must contact: media@axiomspace.com by 5 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 27, to receive call-in details.


Axiom Space astronauts Michael López-Alegría, Larry Connor, Mark Pathy, and Eytan Stibbe, are prime crew members of the Ax-1 mission. López-Alegría, who was born in Spain, raised in California, and is a former NASA astronaut, will serve as the mission commander. Connor, of Dayton, Ohio, will serve as pilot. Pathy, from Canada, and Stibbe, from Israel, will serve as mission specialists.


NASA continues to make rapid progress in its efforts to build a robust low-Earth orbit economy. The agency recently announced its selection of Axiom Space to begin negotiations for the second private astronaut mission. NASA also recently announced its selection of companies to develop designs of space stations and other commercial destinations in low-Earth orbit.


Prior to these new awards, NASA selected Axiom Space in January 2020 to design and develop commercial modules to attach to the station. Axiom recently completed the preliminary design review of two modules as well as the critical design review of the modules’ primary structure with NASA participation. Flight hardware for the first Axiom module is currently undergoing fabrication.
 
Flyaway said:
If you knew anything about the SLS scheduling, the launch flows and technicalities which I cannot discuss here as it is mostly L2 on NSF you’d see why this is unlikely.
Click to expand...

Except we're not talking about SLS scheduling, launch flows, etc; but more of the thumb on the scale by the powers that be against SpaceX; holding up the first full up test of the Starship/SH stack.

Flying Starship/SH was a pie in sky dream in August 2021, when they first stacked it; but by December 2021, enough work was done to make a Starship/SH launch feasible. No, you might not be able to do a fully fuelled launch, or test the chopstick booster recovery system, but you'd have managed to retire a lot of risk involving SH's engine arrangement, control, etc etc.

ATF has 5,082 employees, of which 2,653 are special agents and 760 are industry operations investigators; yet they can handle 290,000+ comments on a firearm rule, being on track to publish by July 2022.

Meanwhile, the FAA has 48,000 employees, and can't handle 19,000 comments on Boca Chica, pushing back the EIA month by month...
 
Since the Situation beging slowly to escalate
ESA stop cooperation with Russian to launch Soyuz-ST from the Centre Spatial Guyanais.
ISS Cooperation become difficult
Also future delivery Stop of Russian engines for Atlas V rocket

Here Elon Musk SpaceX will prosper as the ONLY launch provider in USA...
Thanks Jeff Bezos little problem with his BE-4 Engine, what now become a Very BIG problem.
i would not be surprised if USSF take his toy away and give to other firm to complete it as fast as possible...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497028653603069956
View: https://twitter.com/EverydayBastiat/status/1497028653603069956
 
Seems ESA & CNES no longer give a fuck about Rogozin or the Russians. Soyuz-in-Kourou is on its way out, screwed by Ariane 6 and Vega C
Leaving essentially
- Exomars
- plus a couple of science satellites
As joint endeavors with the Russians.

That's pretty fortunate. Imagine, had ACTS or Klipper been funded by ESA back in 2005 or 2008...
 
Charro Parade in Brownsville
and SpaceX blend in...

FMkJH9jXwAInPRH


That's no Flight Hardware just a ride...
FMf5asJXMAECi93


This is flight Hardware
FMi0mMOXEAg0k3G
 
Dragon029 said:
RyanC said:
This does show that volume of comments are not an obstacle if the rule/process is heavily desired by those at the top.
Click to expand...
I think Hanlon's Razor is more likely here with staffing issues likely to blame; yes the FAA as a whole is a much larger organisation than the ATF, but the FAA's Office of Commercial Space Transportation specifically has been dealing with staffing issues for several years now, with it being an NTSB-highlighted issue surrounding the cause of the 2015 Virgin Galactic mishap, and with it being brought up as a reason for delays to Falcon 9's launch cadence a couple of years ago.

I don't know if they still have a staffing issue, but:
1. Bureaucratic corrective actions are rarely fast, particularly when it involves increasing budgets.
2. It seems probable that within the FAA's OCST and/or other space divisions, only a small fraction would be involved in doing spaceport / launch complex environmental assessments given how rare it is for one to be stood up.
Click to expand...

I agree this is probably a staffing issue. There are many in the bureaucracy who have gotten used to 'not working' from home, blaming covid. I've witnessed the endless meetings of 10 or more in a group discussing for an hour what they will discuss in their next meeting only to have the next meeting rescheduled. It's maddening. I'm getting irritated just writing about it.
 
sferrin said:
View attachment 674844
Click to expand...

The guy is a rock star. No doubt about it. I wrote about the logistics of this feat on another thread. He just makes shit happen. It's actually fun to watch.

It's no wonder the establishment is afraid of him. And the fact the he typically doesn't give a damn what they think makes it all the better.

If a president wanted to make a difference they would disperse all the federal departments and their leadership out of the District to places like Des Moines, San Antonio, Wichita, and Lincoln. Perhaps then some work would get done and the cesspool in DC would clear.

I am now stepping down off my soapbox. ;-)
 
NeilChapman said:
I agree this is probably a staffing issue. There are many in the bureaucracy who have gotten used to 'not working' from home, blaming covid. I've witnessed the endless meetings of 10 or more in a group discussing for an hour what they will discuss in their next meeting only to have the next meeting rescheduled. It's maddening. I'm getting irritated just writing about it.
Click to expand...

www.nytimes.com

Dueling Messages Muddle Biden’s Agenda on Guns

Critics accuse the A.T.F.’s acting director, Marvin Richardson, of cozying up to gun industry leaders at a convention in Las Vegas and delaying enacting rules that would outlaw so-called ghost guns.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Ms. Iverson, the Justice Department spokeswoman, said Mr. Richardson was simply reading from a White House budget office document when he cited the June deadline for the ghost gun rule, which had been delayed by the need to sift through more than a quarter of a million public comments. Mr. Richardson dedicated 30 A.T.F. staff members to process what was the largest-ever response to a firearms proposal, Ms. Iverson said.

But two White House officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter, said Mr. Richardson had misspoken and that the rule would, in fact, be finished by early April. They said that another claim by Mr. Richardson, that enforcement of the regulation would begin 90 days after the rule was completed, was also off base, and that the gap would be closer to 60 days.
Click to expand...

So it only takes 30 people in ATF to sift through 250,000 comments on a rule, but somehow FAA can't find that many to sift through 19,000?

This is basically bureaucratic war being waged against SpaceX, albeit at a very low intensity.
 
RyanC said:
NeilChapman said:
I agree this is probably a staffing issue. There are many in the bureaucracy who have gotten used to 'not working' from home, blaming covid. I've witnessed the endless meetings of 10 or more in a group discussing for an hour what they will discuss in their next meeting only to have the next meeting rescheduled. It's maddening. I'm getting irritated just writing about it.
Click to expand...

www.nytimes.com

Dueling Messages Muddle Biden’s Agenda on Guns

Critics accuse the A.T.F.’s acting director, Marvin Richardson, of cozying up to gun industry leaders at a convention in Las Vegas and delaying enacting rules that would outlaw so-called ghost guns.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Ms. Iverson, the Justice Department spokeswoman, said Mr. Richardson was simply reading from a White House budget office document when he cited the June deadline for the ghost gun rule, which had been delayed by the need to sift through more than a quarter of a million public comments. Mr. Richardson dedicated 30 A.T.F. staff members to process what was the largest-ever response to a firearms proposal, Ms. Iverson said.

But two White House officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter, said Mr. Richardson had misspoken and that the rule would, in fact, be finished by early April. They said that another claim by Mr. Richardson, that enforcement of the regulation would begin 90 days after the rule was completed, was also off base, and that the gap would be closer to 60 days.
Click to expand...

So it only takes 30 people in ATF to sift through 250,000 comments on a rule, but somehow FAA can't find that many to sift through 19,000?

This is basically bureaucratic war being waged against SpaceX, albeit at a very low intensity.
Click to expand...
Yep. And was completely predictable. But mention it on reddit or NSF and the mindless screeching will make your ears bleed.
 
kitnut617 said:
NeilChapman said:
Another cool tidbit was the conversation re welders. Seventy welders onsite, many evidently contractors. That's great for the welders but $$ for SpaceX. Elon wants more SpaceX welders. He wants the speed, he's mindful of cost. I liked how he was on top of this.
Click to expand...
The problem with that is that certified stainless steel welders are not dime a dozen --- and certified SS welders welding in every position other than welded down-hand (lying flat on the table) are even scarcer ---
Click to expand...
You are right ,
My employer dropped a bomb on me today. Next week they are sending me out to take a weld test. SMAW 4G Stainless Steel 316L-16
Unfortunately, there is only stainless steel certified welder got fired this morning and now the urgency is on me to get certified.
I've never ran a bead nor struck an arc with stainless steel rods but I'm determined to pass this test on the first try.
 
overscan (PaulMM) said:
This topic is veering unpleasantly political with talk of Washington cesspits and feeble arguments to support FAA approval delays being "politically motivated". Maybe they are, but 290,000 apples do not equal 19,000 bananas.
Click to expand...
Can we talk about Elon challenging Putin to a fight? :D (Would not recommend Elon pursue that for many reasons, not the least of which Putin is a black-belt in judo and would probably whoop his ass.)
 
sferrin said:
overscan (PaulMM) said:
This topic is veering unpleasantly political with talk of Washington cesspits and feeble arguments to support FAA approval delays being "politically motivated". Maybe they are, but 290,000 apples do not equal 19,000 bananas.
Click to expand...
Can we talk about Elon challenging Putin to a fight? :D (Would not recommend Elon pursue that for many reasons, not the least of which Putin is a black-belt in judo and would probably whoop his ass.)
Click to expand...

Putin vs. the Mayor of Kyiv . . .

en.wikipedia.org

Vitali Klitschko - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

cheers,
Robin.
 
Down in Boca Chica today with my son on our annual Spring Break Road Trip - something we have been doing since he was 8 and now he is a week away from being 16 and graduating soon from High School. They kindly (! :) ) stacked a pair on the tower for testing and there are 3 Starships and a Booster over in the assembly area plus plenty of other bits and pieces around the compound. I must say, it is truly amazing to see this in person! Today was very windy and hazy but we will go by tomorrow morning to get the sun behind us and hopefully clear air for more pics.

Enjoy the Day! Mark
 

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Hi all,
I got a question: since the EuropeanRosalind Franklin rover lost the support of the Russians for launching their project to Mars, would it be possible to use an other rocket to get there? (More on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ExoMars)
I think a Falcon (9 or heavy? ) would be able to bring About 1000 Kg to Mars.
-Falcon 9 is a medium-lift launch vehicle capable of delivering up to 22,800 kilograms (50,265 lb) to orbit (LEO? ).
-The Falcon Heavy is capable of delivering up to 63,800 kg (140,700 lb) to Low Earth orbit (LEO) or 26,700 kg (58,900 lb) to geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO).
As I am no engineer, I have no idea what would be needed to get a rover to Mars. Maybe we should ask ESA if they would be interested in coorporating with SpaceX, they surely must be cheaper then everyone else, and I think Elon would love the idea.
So can SpaceX deliver a robot to Mars with little extra engineering?
 
One Web has moved the launch of at least some of its satellites to Space X after Soyuz became unavailable.

www.independent.co.uk

Satellite company that couldn’t launch after Russia invasion comes back – with SpaceX

OneWeb, the UK satellite company that was unable to conduct its launches on Russia rockets after the invasion of Ukraine, is coming back on board SpaceX rockets, it has announced.
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

arstechnica.com

OneWeb turns to a competitor—SpaceX—to complete its constellation

“We’re on track to finish building out our full fleet of satellites.”…
arstechnica.com arstechnica.com
 
Last edited:
Flyaway said:
One Web has moved the launch of at least some of its satellites to Space X after Soyuz became unavailable.

www.independent.co.uk

Satellite company that couldn’t launch after Russia invasion comes back – with SpaceX

OneWeb, the UK satellite company that was unable to conduct its launches on Russia rockets after the invasion of Ukraine, is coming back on board SpaceX rockets, it has announced.
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

arstechnica.com

OneWeb turns to a competitor—SpaceX—to complete its constellation

“We’re on track to finish building out our full fleet of satellites.”…
arstechnica.com arstechnica.com
Click to expand...

My reaction

giphy.gif


This is completely absurd.
 

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