Shenyang / Chengdu "6th Gen" Aircraft - General Discussion and Speculation

[Nx4eu]

Wonderful strawman arguments you have there, @Nx4eu, watch out they don't blow away in a light breeze. I get this is the discussion and speculation topic but still -



China did an excellent job with speedy development of the J-20 ahead of Western estimates. The weaponry and avionics look good on paper. China does, however, lack experience in warfare and active use of their equipment in real world engagements.

Low probability of intercept radar design is complex, and algorithms for TWS, NTCR, ECCM etc are closely guarded secrets and evolved and refined in the US (and UK, France..) over many years and generations of radar designs. Counting the number of AESA elements, or reading placard range on a radar display at Zhuhai, doesn't speak to these essential characteristics, so its hard to conclude the J-20 is competitive. Maybe China will hit it out the park on first try, but history suggests real world experience is a great teacher.

Additionally, they have had challenges getting up to speed with engine development, and J-20 still hasn't reached parity in this area. As @F119Doctor has noted in other topics, supercruise requires a specifically optimised engine design. WS-15 may be such an engine. WS-10 is not. We don't at this stage know how much fuel the J-20 carries, so its hard to be certain of its range. We can make estimates, but we don't know.

Rough RCS analysis tools such as we have show J-35 does not appear to be shaped with all-aspect VLO in mind. The basic configuration is not optimal for stealth, and there's only so much you can do with materials. It is likely the stealth requirements for J-20 were notably lesser than F-22, especially in the side and rear aspect.

It's still likely that its better in this respect than any fighter in service outside F-22 and F-35. But that doesn't mean we can conclude its 'competitive in stealth' with the F-22, which seems to be your conclusion.

When you make statements like



it comes across a bit "China Stronk". If you want sound more credible, cite the sources that lead you to this opinion. The specific source cited above is much more about redirecting Congress from funding costly upgrades to near-obsolete early F-22 Blocks to spending in more useful areas than anything else.

US Air Force sources have generally been surprised by the rapid pace of China's developments, but still reasonably confident an American pilot in the F-22 Block 35 could still handle the J-20. However the margin of superiority has been significantly eroded and this is a pretty awesome achievement for China.

Back to topic....

The J-36 represents a possible turning point here, and the USAF needs to pick a path forward pretty soon or get left behind.

All of your conclusions are still based on the notion of China's inexperience in the field compared to western counterparts that allude you to believe the equipment is inferior. Saying China is competitive with American fighters comes off as much as "China Stronk" as it does when you say they aren't competitive as China isn't a peer adversary. Of course from your own bias, it is logical to conclude that given the lack of information, it should be assumed to be inferior to it's western counterparts. I'm not straw manning your arguments I'm simply pointing out the ridiculousness of the conversation.

I'm not arguing that the J-20's stealth is as good as the F-22, clearly like you said it has some drawbacks in it's overall configuration. You're still assuming that the J-20 had less rigorous stealth requirements however, there is no way we can be sure of this as a fact.

It's the pace of the Chinese aviation industry that constantly seems to be underestimated. This however will always be the case moving forward, due to the secrecy of all their projects. Nothing concrete about the J-20 is known, therefore it cannot be logically compared to any fighter in the world, so I agree we can't say it is competitive to the F-22, but we can't say it is definitively inferior either.

Given that we're in the speculation and discussion thread for 6th generation fighters, how many Western Analysts believed China already had prototypes ready for flight testing, or had already undergone potential flight testing for prototype "6th gen" aircraft. Many believed China to be 10-20 years still behind. With the potential rumors on the Chinese internet, to being false fanboy-ism. Even after flight testing spread across the internet, many online journalists "cope" about it being a 5th gen strike bomber, it can't possibly be a 6th gen. And they partially could be right, we have zero information on it's potential capabilities, based on the lack of information it isn't any more wrong to call it 5th gen than to call it a 6th gen.

A lot of information then has to be inferred right? This applies to the J-20. Based on your assumptions, You believe that the J-20 isn't up to the task with competing with the F-22. However other people have their own assumptions as well. Some lean more on anecdotes, while some lean more on testimonies from PLA analysts and insiders. None can be ever proven to be accurate in any case.

This argument is stupid, and I do not wish to continue. We can never conclude any argument if it's all based on assumptions.

 

[Tomboy]

Even after flight testing spread across the internet, many online journalists "cope" about it being a 5th gen strike bomber, it can't possibly be a 6th gen. And they partially could be right, we have zero information on it's potential capabilities, based on the lack of information it isn't any more wrong to call it 5th gen than to call it a 6th gen.

People usually forget the other aircraft that flew, if their argument for J-36 being a fighter-bomber is due to its large size and 3 engines then what would be the argument for the Shenyang aircraft, that thing looks like a fighter through and through. Although we do have even more limited info on that

 

[Nx4eu]

People usually forget the other aircraft that flew, if their argument for J-36 being a fighter-bomber than what would be the argument for the Shenyang aircraft, that thing looks like a fighter through and through. Although we do have even more limited info on that

It's the preconceived notion that a fighter must be within a certain range of size that limits their perspective. If it's too large it must be something else, ie a bomber.

Everything modern has been growing in both size and capabilities, it's unwise for them to use standards set in decades past to judge equipment for the future.

In WW2, destroyers displaced 2,000 tons, in modern times, many new destroyers and planned future destroyers will displace over 15,000 tons. With that type of thinking, it must mean all future destroyers are actually cruisers. Modern tanks are heavier than old gen tanks. Modern fighters are larger than old gen aircraft.

Old Air superiority was achieved through dogfights, so with their train of logic, that must mean new fighters also need to be extremely agile to win air superiority.

These men seem to be stuck in the past. It's also just straight prejudice against the Chinese, and the "evil communists". They like to equate China to the Soviet Union. Everything is a facade, nothing in China is real.

If NGAD came out to be a 50-60 ton beast, it would be praised as the most capable fighter in the world. There won't be many "it's just a reskinned fb-22" comments, or it's just a bomber.

 

[Nx4eu]

Can I comment how ridiculous this graphic is, it ties in basically with what I just stated above. 3x 22,000lbf class engines really? I've scaled 3x GE414 engines versus 3x F119 engines with the J-36. These are the western analysts, really? They must really think Chinese engine tech is in the gutters and this is just a subsonic bomber if they believe its 3x 22,000lbf engines.

"J-36 stealth bomber"


22,000lbf class engines x3 . J-36 in my comparison is scaled to 22m, so it's actually smaller than their graphic.


Versus 3x 35,000lb class engines ie F119 in the J-36.


Where did they even get the notion of 3x 22,000lbf engines? Not to mention the horrendous symmetrical nozzles in the asymmetrical trench they made up.. This is really bugging me that these graphics are being passed around. Some sick joke perhaps, they probably think the J-20 is also equipped with 2x 22,000lbf class engines.
I'm baffled, I'm appalled, I'm dumbfounded. I really can't put it into words.

 

[Waterballoon]

I'm baffled, I'm appalled, I'm dumbfounded. I really can't put it into words.

Flabbergasted is the all encompassing word you are looking for.

They presuppose it being a bomber so it doesn't need as much thrust as if it were a fighter. From there on almost all of their assumptions are wrong.

 

[quellish]

Laser with any energy to speak of almost certainly will not work well through such window; it's already a type of weapon system built around rather delicate balance of heat at both ends.

Also needs a way to clean bugs, etc off itself in flight.

 

[Devin]

An (very) amateur attempt at assessing motivations. Keeping in mind some caveats;

1/ The USAF general has stated his opinion that the Chinese aircraft are fighters and are 6th gen. but the US military has, in the past, purposefully misrepresented foreign technologies to get the equipment they want. So I think a degree of caution here.
2/ If we assume that the J-36 is a demonstrator and look at the Incompatibility of the dorsal intake in relation to the lateral intakes along with the mold line of the aircraft trailing edge we could come to the conclusion that the aircraft is in fact intended to be a twin engine design waiting for it's engines. If you imagine the a/c without that dorsal intake it sure makes a big difference.
3/ My little graph tries to shoehorn new concepts into old thinking which may very well be impossible and just cloud the whole thing more. You'll also notice I just dump the new aircraft in the previous generation if there's no reason for it to be 6th gen. other than we wish it to be.
4/ Lots of mistakes and wrong assumptions. It's just for fun after all.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Can I comment how ridiculous this graphic is, it ties in basically with what I just stated above. 3x 22,000lbf class engines really? I've scaled 3x GE414 engines versus 3x F119 engines with the J-36. These are the western analysts, really? They must really think Chinese engine tech is in the gutters and this is just a subsonic bomber if they believe its 3x 22,000lbf engines.

"J-36 stealth bomber"
View attachment 762402View attachment 762403

22,000lbf class engines x3 . J-36 in my comparison is scaled to 22m, so it's actually smaller than their graphic.
View attachment 762404

Versus 3x 35,000lb class engines ie F119 in the J-36.
View attachment 762405

Where did they even get the notion of 3x 22,000lbf engines? Not to mention the horrendous symmetrical nozzles in the asymmetrical trench they made up.. This is really bugging me that these graphics are being passed around. Some sick joke perhaps, they probably think the J-20 is also equipped with 2x 22,000lbf class engines.
I'm baffled, I'm appalled, I'm dumbfounded. I really can't put it into words.

If it is non-afterburning WS-10B it would be a perfect fit. Basically CAC went all the troubles with exotic nozzles and intakes to support three non afterburning engines.

 

[Tomboy]

2/ If we assume that the J-36 is a demonstrator and look at the Incompatibility of the dorsal intake in relation to the lateral intakes along with the mold line of the aircraft trailing edge we could come to the conclusion that the aircraft is in fact intended to be a twin engine design waiting for it's engines. If you imagine the a/c without that dorsal intake it sure makes a big difference.

Not a demonstrator but with good reasoning it's a late stage prototype, also it's ridiculous to say that it is a twin engine design with 3 engine as a placeholder people who are saying this has little to no engineering knowledge, how is the dorsal intake incompatible in the first place?? Looking out of place or no fighter ever had 3 engines isnt a good excuse...

 

[Devin]

Not a demonstrator but with good reasoning it's a late stage prototype, also it's ridiculous to say that it is a twin engine design with 3 engine as a placeholder people who are saying this has little to no engineering knowledge, how is the dorsal intake incompatible in the first place?? Looking out of place or no fighter ever had 3 engines isnt a good excuse...

Like I said, lot's of mistakes and wrong assumptions, I'm not as sure of myself as you clearly are. If it's a late stage prototype we'll soon be seeing them in production and on exercise and it'll clear up many the unknowns.