Shenyang / Chengdu "6th Gen" Aircraft - General Discussion and Speculation

[overscan (PaulMM)]

Topic for discussions about the new Chinese potentially 6th gen aircraft without limitations on the conversation.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Ah, what the hey, I'll jump in here first.

I think the H-20 is going to be a "stealth H-6" in rough capabilities, not a B-2. 9000kg bombload and 3200nmi range. The Chinese airfields are designed around that scale aircraft, as is their current military doctrine.

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

I can see the rationale but I think its going to be closer to B-21.

 

[Dilandu]

Well, they seems to follow the J-20 "very heavy fighter" doctrine with emphasis on stealth. Apparently PLAAF follow the concept of future air combat being less about maneuvering, but more about detecting & hitting stealthy enemy with a salvo of long-range missiles, while staying out of his detection capability. Thus the heavy emphasus on stealth - to avoid being targeted first - and large size - to have payload and range to carry heavy, long-range missiles on internal carriage.

 

[Flyaway]

I think in many areas that the US has already lost the technical race to China. That includes aviation. I blame politicians on all sides in the US. It’s been a modern case of fiddling whilst Rome burns for years now. Look at the mess on hypersonic research, let alone NGAD. And no the tech bros aren’t going to pull the politicians fat out of fire either.

 

[Ainen]

Given that there's half generation between new release and j-20(and just a single development span between it and j-35) - i don't think newcomers are replacement for chinese 5th generation.
It could be generational in 1970s, but the speed of "airframe" progress isn't there anymore.

If they're - they're in pipeline to replace flankers(Shenyang airrcraft), and attempt at somethting new entirely(Chengdu one).

Shenyang bird is still very hard to reasonably asses; it's still unlikely to be overly "joint" - if anything, simply because both PLAN and PLAAF paid for J-35, and I will be...surprised if it will go away in 5 years. It's too early even for J-15/16 fleets to go away.

Chengdu aircraft, while it notably drew attention with its uniqueness, at the moment is a rather measurable quantity.
By personal assesment - silver bullet type interdictor for disruptive action over the sea and island chains. I.e. in a way the task that was attributed to J-20 with all the "interceptor" talk. Which isn't really an interceptor work.

 

[Avimimus]

Well, they seems to follow the J-20 "very heavy fighter" doctrine with emphasis on stealth. Apparently PLAAF follow the concept of future air combat being less about maneuvering, but more about detecting & hitting stealthy enemy with a salvo of long-range missiles, while staying out of his detection capability. Thus the heavy emphasus on stealth - to avoid being targeted first - and large size - to have payload and range to carry heavy, long-range missiles on internal carriage.

Which is consistent with what we've seen from NGAD as well.

That said, I'm yet to be convinced that this aircraft is manoeuvrable in the supersonic flight regime. I'm not an expert in supersonic aerodynamics, but I'm not sure that the dorsal intake and absence of vertical stabilisers really make that much of a difference at the overall angles-of-attack that predominate in supersonic BVR fights.

 

[Tomboy]

Which is consistent with what we've seen from NGAD as well.

That said, I'm yet to be convinced that this aircraft is manoeuvrable in the supersonic flight regime. I'm not an expert in supersonic aerodynamics, but I'm not sure that the dorsal intake and absence of vertical stabilisers really make that much of a difference at the overall angles-of-attack that predominate in supersonic BVR fights.

Theres no point for the J-36 to be very maneuverable in the Su-57 sense. It just needs to be maneuverable to move into optimal launch position for its long range BVR missiles, for the very unlikely scenario that it does get into a WVR combat situation modern IR missiles already have the maneuverability to basically hit anything that's not immediately beside the launch plane, coupled with the presumed advanced sensors placed around the aircraft which would allow tracking close range targets from basically any direction.

 

[Ainen]

Theres no point for the J-36 to be very maneuverable in the Su-57 sense. It just needs to be maneuverable to move into optimal launch position for its long range BVR missiles, for the very unlikely scenario that it does get into a WVR combat situation modern IR missiles already have the maneuverability to basically hit anything that's not immediately beside the launch plane, coupled with the presumed advanced sensors placed around the aircraft which would allow tracking close range targets from basically any direction.

It's in combat(and there are still significant nuances to that aspect; also, as of now it isn't quite obvious J-36 will even carry IR WVR missiles at all). Left of shooting, it's still a problem, as it is still problem for self-defense maneuvering and so on.
But overall, Chengdu had to choose, and the choice is rather obvious. For better maneuvering performance(BVR, WVR, supersonic, subsonic, stall) PLAAF has literally everything else.

 

[Avimimus]

Theres no point for the J-36 to be very maneuverable in the Su-57 sense. It just needs to be maneuverable to move into optimal launch position for its long range BVR missiles, for the very unlikely scenario that it does get into a WVR combat situation modern IR missiles already have the maneuverability to basically hit anything that's not immediately beside the launch plane, coupled with the presumed advanced sensors placed around the aircraft which would allow tracking close range targets from basically any direction.

(1) Survival in BVR environments can benefit from being able to sustain turns (high gee but low angle-of-attack). Kinematic defeat of missiles in BVR is one, but also being able to quickly shift orientation in order to optimise stealth. It can also be used to minimise turn circles (thus avoiding other threats). That was the type of manoeuvrability I was talking about.

(2) I wouldn't be surprised if this aircraft is expected to avoid the WVR realm entirely. However, in WVR missiles have longer ranges and shorter travel times if launched into the forward hemisphere (as they don't need to expend energy changing directions). Thus accelerating towards your enemy increases the likelihood of getting a first shot. So, an ability to make at least one sharp turn (e.g. using thrust vectoring) and accelerate rapidly is still very desirable in WVR combat. Of course, an alternative solution would be a very oversized WVR missile (similar to the R-73 experiments with giant rocket boosters to allow them to rapidly accelerate backwards).

 

[GTX]

Some interesting discussion here. Apart from Perun's usual good analysis/commentary includes input from Justin Bronk of the The Royal United Services Institute.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exD-ZrG1XTA

 

[F-2]

Theres no point for the J-36 to be very maneuverable in the Su-57 sense. It just needs to be maneuverable to move into optimal launch position for its long range BVR missiles, for the very unlikely scenario that it does get into a WVR combat situation modern IR missiles already have the maneuverability to basically hit anything that's not immediately beside the launch plane, coupled with the presumed advanced sensors placed around the aircraft which would allow tracking close range targets from basically any direction.

It seems to lack the sort of thing that allows for exceptional BVR maneuverability though

J-20 and Eurofighter, long arm canards

F-22 thrust vectoring

YF-23 massive control surfaces


I’m in more the air cruiser or strike craft camp

 

[UpForce]

Some interesting discussion here. Apart from Perun's usual good analysis/commentary includes input from Justin Bronk of the The Royal United Services Institute.

Yep, by far the most thorough and thought through video I've seen on this. Have some notions of my own as well fwiw but I'll hold on to those for the moment. All the excitement (and I don't begrudge that) has made the discussion somewhat challenging to contribute to.