Replacing the Canberra

[Rule of cool]

Leaving aside it not being a Canberra replacement, the only way the UKVG (or something in it's place) is going to work is if British industry kicks goals before it. Big RAF Lightning fleet plus more exports to kickstart the 60s, TSR2 to jump the digital computer hurdle, Medway Trident and VC10 Super 200 to provide bulk work in the industry, P1127 to provide niche VTOL work. Only then would the industry be able to build the UKVG on it's own. In contrast with a decade of failure and disappointment there is no way the UK will then be able to produce a state of the art aircraft off its own bat, it will require being propped up by outsiders like the Jaguar, Tornado and 2nd generation Harrier.were.

 

[zen]

UKVG becomes affordable as a longer ranged VG aircraft than AFVG or MRCA and without the delays imposed by multinational work should be in service by 1974.
Alternatively the UK could keep the Vulcans in service equipped with a UK cruise missile or US SRAMs.

Welll it's not impossible.
A modest delay in issuing OR.339 of a few years, because Buccaneers are chosen as 'interim' solution, puts the requirements into the period when the electronics industry has shown the major miniaturisation of components.
OR.346 was partly written because of the realisation of how much more compact avionics could become and this was realised as the UK avionics package bid for MRCA, original developed for AFVG if not rooted in OR.346....

So it's quite possible that something like OR.346 would be issued and that results in the VG work we're familiar with.
This would also allow turbofan bids for the engines to win through instead of Olympus.
RR's Medway and Spey is further along.
Bristol's BS.58 (straight through Pegasus) and BS.100 variant (BS.100 was rumoured to be called Janus).

All of which put this AH TSR.2 into F111 territory......or....if this is aiming at V-Bomber replacement....then something more intermediate between F111 and B1.
Shades of a Western Backfire.

 

[Rule of cool]

Is there anything more permanent than an interim defence programme? The British should have labelled TSR2 and CVA01/02 as interim, they would have been built and had 30+ year service lives if the other interim programmes are any guide.

 

[uk 75]

The underlying problem is that the UK in the 60s wanted to be part of a forward looking prosperous Europe matching what was going on in France and Germany.
There was no appetite by 1965 for clinging on to past glories and commitments outside Europe and NATO.
So no need to replace Vulcan or the out of area Canberras. Phantoms give way to Euro Jaguars and Tornados in the strike role and don't even replace all the Lightnings in the UK.
You would have to create a very different Britain to make your what-ifs work.

 

[Rule of cool]

Timing matters in this vortex of decisions. In 1965 the incoming Labour government assumed Britains global role would continue indefinitely as it was electorally popular, all the cancellations were to make it more affordable. From 1966 a big motivation was avoiding devaluation, as Labour devalued last time they were in power and didn't want to stigma of being the party of devaluation. This is when they put the withdrawal for EoS by 1975 and cancelled the CVAs but put Ark in for the phantom refit. When devaluation occured in November 1967 all the previous decisions came back to haunt them, resulting in the cut and run in 3 years from EoS.

It was one bad decision compound the severity of situations that occurred later. If Britain hadn't been in a defence procurement crisis then the financial crisis wouldn't have been so bad, nor the reaction to it so drastic.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Is there anything more permanent than an interim defence programme? The British should have labelled TSR2 and CVA01/02 as interim, they would have been built and had 30+ year service lives if the other interim programmes are any guide.

For real...

 

[pathology_doc]

The British should have labelled TSR2 and CVA01/02 as interim, they would have been built and had 30+ year service lives if the other interim programmes are any guide.

Just look at the Spitfire's evolution. A whole gaggle of "interim" solutions that either completely sidelined the carefully thought out developments or eclipsed them in terms of numbers in service.

TLDR: Buy Buccaneer and kick TSR.2 four years down the road, when the electronics can actually deliver.