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In hindsight, two pictures emerge: one of significant American influence in Australia’s defence capability decision-making; and another of an effort from within the Morrison government to undermine its own program.
This goes far beyond submarines. The death of the Attack-class fits a pattern of behaviour (pre-dating the Morrison government) that was also evident in the replacement of the Tiger Armed Reconnaissance Helicopters, the MRH 90 Taipans and the Elbit (ELSA) Battle Management System (BMS).
The pattern is simple: generate negative press about a platform, then pin the blame on defence industry for a costly replacement.
On August 27 2021 – around the time VADM Mead was in Washington – Greg Sammut, General Manager Submarines for CASG, sent an email to Moriarty that has since been obtained by the media under FOI. Sammut said: “The schedule forecasts delivery of the first Attack class submarine within the window August 2033 to February 2035 at a confidence level of 80 per cent.
“The updated program cost estimate is $46.4 billion in 2016 constant dollars, which remains within the original acquisition cost estimate of $50 billion in 2016 constant dollars announced at the outset.
“Naval Group work collaboratively with Defence since then to achieve substantial progress, and there are no extreme program strategic risks.”
On 31 August, Moriarty responded: “[This] is a reflection of… the good working relationship that you and your team has established with Naval Group and LMA. I will ensure that the good progress to date is part of the advice we take to Government »
Dammit.
JK Simmons does the absolute best J. Jonah Jameson.My present state of mind, a safe distance away, behind my keyboard and screen...
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6M1OF_E0IA
Interesting article indeed H_K, good find.Here’s a rather good read… like a Cluedo board game mystery.
Who killed the Attack-class?
By Ewen Levick | Melbourne | 10 May 2022
www.australiandefence.com.au/news/who-killed-the-attack-class
Fuuuuuck !!! (sorry for the swearing). How many times did I suggested that in that thread ? that Attack was an "entry door" toward Barracuda ? And yet the Australians turned down that very option. Frack.However, that same year Naval Group’s chief Herve Guillou said Australia could have a nuclear submarine; one of the reasons the French submarines were chosen was their ability to switch to nuclear propulsion from 2030; and ADM understands the French offered to switch the Attack class to nuclear propulsion and were turned down.
The media began reporting on sensitive details of the Attack class and two key issues began to surface: a purported $40 billion cost blow-out – since revealed to be inaccurate – and whether Naval Group would sign up to 60 per cent Australian Industry Content (AIC) target.
According to sources close to the talks, Morrison refused to meet Pommellet, and Reynolds insisted on a contract change that would oblige Naval Group to meet its offer of a 60 per cent target or face termination for breach. Pommellet, under pressure from negative headlines, agreed to what sources describe as a ‘fair deal’ with Defence Secretary Greg Moriarty – but the damage to Naval Group’s public reputation was already done.
This goes far beyond submarines. The death of the Attack-class fits a pattern of behaviour (pre-dating the Morrison government) that was also evident in the replacement of the Tiger Armed Reconnaissance Helicopters, the MRH 90 Taipans and the Elbit (ELSA) Battle Management System (BMS).
The pattern is simple: generate negative press about a platform, then pin the blame on defence industry for a costly replacement.
For example, in 2018, editor Nigel Pittaway reported: “Someone in Defence or Government, or both, is actively suppressing any good news stories regarding Tiger.
“Tiger was singled out in the 2016 Defence White Paper for criticism, the only platform to be treated in this manner, and it was also the subject of an Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) report in September 2016… that listed no fewer than 76 ‘deficiencies’ which, according to informed sources, were actually capabilities not specified in the original ARH requirements.”
The drip feed of negative stories around Tiger continued, prompting Airbus Australia’s then-CEO Andrew Mathewson to publicly call for an ‘open competition’ to replace the platform amid media reports that Defence was negotiating a sole source foreign military sales acquisition of the Boeing Apache – which is, of course, what ended up happening in early 2021.
In another example, Defence grounded its fleet of MRH 90 Taipan helicopters in July 2021, which prompted media stories quoting anonymous Army aviators alleging the helicopters are “no longer safe to fly” following “potentially catastrophic” maintenance issues. These turned out to involve the Army’s own software (the computerised maintenance system) that was unable to adequately track flight hours logged by components that had swapped between aircraft.
A further investigation by ADM revealed that the components in question were not critical to flight safety and the decision to ground the fleet was made suddenly, even though Army’s ‘faulty’ software had been used for years.
Six months later, Minister Dutton announced the government was negotiating to buy up to 40 Sikorsky UH-60M Black Hawk battlefield mobility helicopters to replace the Taipans.
Fuuuuuck !!! (sorry for the swearing). How many times did I suggested that in that thread ? that Attack was an "entry door" toward Barracuda ? And yet the Australians turned down that very option. Frack.However, that same year Naval Group’s chief Herve Guillou said Australia could have a nuclear submarine; one of the reasons the French submarines were chosen was their ability to switch to nuclear propulsion from 2030; and ADM understands the French offered to switch the Attack class to nuclear propulsion and were turned down.
The media began reporting on sensitive details of the Attack class and two key issues began to surface: a purported $40 billion cost blow-out – since revealed to be inaccurate – and whether Naval Group would sign up to 60 per cent Australian Industry Content (AIC) target.According to sources close to the talks, Morrison refused to meet Pommellet, and Reynolds insisted on a contract change that would oblige Naval Group to meet its offer of a 60 per cent target or face termination for breach. Pommellet, under pressure from negative headlines, agreed to what sources describe as a ‘fair deal’ with Defence Secretary Greg Moriarty – but the damage to Naval Group’s public reputation was already done.
Frack again. I'm not saying naval group or the french governments were innocent lambs - they may have been assholes enough to irritates the Australians and perhaps they deserved the final result.
The Value Added Tax argument is completely false, even dishonest, when one purchases goods and pays VAT tax out of welfare funds, instead of decently earned income.VAT (TVA in France) fixed that. In essence, every consumer can be legally seen as a Taxpayers past any insignificant purchase.* suffrage censitaire: tax-based voting system: "one taxpayer - one vote", not "one man - one vote".
For perspective, in some EU countries like France, less than 50% of households are net taxpayers. Yet they vote. And then people wonder why the political class is, erm, as it is...
This generally unpopular tax prevents any legal attempt to corner the poorest among us from fully exercising their citizen rights.
The French nuke boats use LEU; the US/UK use HEU. It might be that RAN felt refueling a nuke boat was an unworkable solution? Otherwise I would have expected them just ice the Shortfin and go straight to Barracuda for a nuclear capability.Fuuuuuck !!! (sorry for the swearing). How many times did I suggested that in that thread ? that Attack was an "entry door" toward Barracuda ? And yet the Australians turned down that very option. Frack.However, that same year Naval Group’s chief Herve Guillou said Australia could have a nuclear submarine; one of the reasons the French submarines were chosen was their ability to switch to nuclear propulsion from 2030; and ADM understands the French offered to switch the Attack class to nuclear propulsion and were turned down.
The media began reporting on sensitive details of the Attack class and two key issues began to surface: a purported $40 billion cost blow-out – since revealed to be inaccurate – and whether Naval Group would sign up to 60 per cent Australian Industry Content (AIC) target.According to sources close to the talks, Morrison refused to meet Pommellet, and Reynolds insisted on a contract change that would oblige Naval Group to meet its offer of a 60 per cent target or face termination for breach. Pommellet, under pressure from negative headlines, agreed to what sources describe as a ‘fair deal’ with Defence Secretary Greg Moriarty – but the damage to Naval Group’s public reputation was already done.
Frack again. I'm not saying naval group or the french governments were innocent lambs - they may have been assholes enough to irritates the Australians and perhaps they deserved the final result.
The question is why they rejected the Barracuda option, apparently out of hand. A fair bit is made of the friction between the Australian govt and Naval, but there would have had to have been massive differences to warrant throwing away the work done already (at substantial cost). There was plenty of friction between Kockums and the Australian govt back in the day, they managed to get through that alright.
The French nuke boats use LEU; the US/UK use HEU. It might be that RAN felt refueling a nuke boat was an unworkable solution? Otherwise I would have expected them just ice the Shortfin and go straight to Barracuda for a nuclear capability.Fuuuuuck !!! (sorry for the swearing). How many times did I suggested that in that thread ? that Attack was an "entry door" toward Barracuda ? And yet the Australians turned down that very option. Frack.However, that same year Naval Group’s chief Herve Guillou said Australia could have a nuclear submarine; one of the reasons the French submarines were chosen was their ability to switch to nuclear propulsion from 2030; and ADM understands the French offered to switch the Attack class to nuclear propulsion and were turned down.
The media began reporting on sensitive details of the Attack class and two key issues began to surface: a purported $40 billion cost blow-out – since revealed to be inaccurate – and whether Naval Group would sign up to 60 per cent Australian Industry Content (AIC) target.According to sources close to the talks, Morrison refused to meet Pommellet, and Reynolds insisted on a contract change that would oblige Naval Group to meet its offer of a 60 per cent target or face termination for breach. Pommellet, under pressure from negative headlines, agreed to what sources describe as a ‘fair deal’ with Defence Secretary Greg Moriarty – but the damage to Naval Group’s public reputation was already done.
Frack again. I'm not saying naval group or the french governments were innocent lambs - they may have been assholes enough to irritates the Australians and perhaps they deserved the final result.
The question is why they rejected the Barracuda option, apparently out of hand. A fair bit is made of the friction between the Australian govt and Naval, but there would have had to have been massive differences to warrant throwing away the work done already (at substantial cost). There was plenty of friction between Kockums and the Australian govt back in the day, they managed to get through that alright.
I vaguely remember this debate (LEU vs HEU) happened before on this thread (and the other one that was locked) - and the jury ended split.
Can't remember the exact details, TBH.
I am sorry but "Leach" is an offensive term when it comes to categorize a bunch of ppl, especially with a social category that use to fill the ranks of many armies in the world.If someone is purchasing anything out of RMI (Revenu Minimum d'Insertion) or RSA (revenu de solidarité active), or Argent-Braguette (Allocations Familiales), s/he is still a net leach on society, and their opinion on how to manage the public budget could have a very relative worth.
Again: Let's get back to Collins-class subs...
From reading the whole thing it seems to be a case of the USA infiltrating and influencing the Australian MoD against European military gear. Like it or not (I'm french and european, after all) truth is: they certainly suceeded.
- Tiger down, Apache won
- NH90 down, Blackhawk prevails
- Attack / Barracuda screwed, Virginia a winner.
My feelings about it
- Australia quite logically has leant to the American side since the early 1960s (after GB influence on them waned)
- European procurements are thus more exception than the norm
- Not easy to win against Uncle Sam, including in the long term
- Big arm deals between Gvts and contractors are not for angels nor teletubbies
- those things happen: see Tornado ADV vs F-15 vs Mirage 4000, Saudi Arabia circa 1988. We all know the winners and losers of that big game.
Bottom line: I'm not really surprised the US government helps its military aerospace giants winning contracts by using the influence gained over Australia since the 1960s.
France has done the same for Dassault; countless times, to export 2000 combat jets since 1953 and the first Ouragan sales to India and Israel.
Plenty of life yet:Will the Collins boats be scrapped or do they have useful life still? Considering the work that went into making them as useful as they are they might yet bring some capital back. Possibly.
From reading the whole thing it seems to be a case of the USA infiltrating and influencing the Australian MoD against European military gear. Like it or not (I'm french and european, after all) truth is: they certainly suceeded.
- Tiger down, Apache won
- NH90 down, Blackhawk prevails
- Attack / Barracuda screwed, Virginia a winner.
- Australia quite logically has leant to the American side since the early 1960s (after GB influence on them waned)
- European procurements are thus more exception than the norm
- Not easy to win against Uncle Sam, including in the long term
Sorry, I was meaning when they actually get replaced but, that could be a shed load of years down the line if (As I hope) they are looking at the next gen of boats to keep them relevant for a decent service life.Plenty of life yet:Will the Collins boats be scrapped or do they have useful life still? Considering the work that went into making them as useful as they are they might yet bring some capital back. Possibly.
Collins Class fleet to receive $6bn service life extension
Defence has committed $10 billion to refit all six Collins Class submarines amid ongoing concerns over the FOC timeline for the future Attack Class fleet. Minister for Defence Peter Dutton has confwww.defenceconnect.com.au
I vaguely remember this debate (LEU vs HEU) happened before on this thread (and the other one that was locked) - and the jury ended split.
Can't remember the exact details, TBH.
LEU
Pros: Cheaper, can leverage civilian processing / recycling facilities around the world, no proliferation concerns, easier to extend service life
Cons: Need to refuel every ~10 years (during deep dockings which need to happen anyway, so not that big of a constraint), small design impact (access hatches), requires some shore-based temporary storage facilities, more complex logistics shipping nuclear fuel back & forth to Europe
HEU
Pros: Simpler logistics, no shore based storage facilities needed
Cons: Expensive, design impact (big reactor), service life is fuel-limited/hard to extend, waste is harder to dispose at end-of-life and will require US congressional approval (if US reactor) to store in some desert somewhere, need to respect non-proliferation treaties
… basically there are arguments for both. Eliminating Barracuda because of LEU without deep analysis was a political decision.
I may be out of line but, cracking the hull of a submarine when it does not NEED to be done is an additional risk and perhaps it should not be done? After all, every time you do that you increase the potential for the submarine to have water inside that hull and it is not considered beneficial to the health of the squidy things that, you know, drive the boat.
If you can do without, why not?
Speaking for myself, I'm immensely grateful for your use of English as it doesn't expose the utter weakness of my autre-linguistic skills!and remember english is not my native language...
Which benefits come with that? I understand the reduce fuel price but allowing for inflation over those thirty years of service, that will be marginal to non existent anyway. Perhaps I grew up with too many stories of the 'K' class boats where poor tactical thinking led design and build.
Australia is 1 month into a Federal election (just under 1 week to go as of writing this) and the submarines have not even been a topic for mainstream discussion with both major parties essentially aligned on their acquisition (as has been the case pretty much since the AUKUS announcement). It is essentially a non-issue in Australia.Australian contributors will have a better idea if the nuclear sub deal is actually now such a article of fate for some Australians with the actual details (best alternative options, costs, required infrastructure etc) increasingly beyond debate for that voting cohort, of if these details (as discussed/ debated here) will get a genuine airing and debate in Australia.
Define "most of the time" please. See my list above of major projects/acquisitions which actually shows quite the opposite.it is not really surprising they pick (most of the time) US military gear.
Actually Australia buys so much foreign gear I rather wonder why building the subs in Oz was ever a sticking point for the Attacks.Define "most of the time" please. See my list above of major projects/acquisitions which actually shows quite the opposite.it is not really surprising they pick (most of the time) US military gear.
Yes, there is a change of Government in Australia after yesterday's election.Wait, Morrison has lost elections ? I ask this question because former French Minister of Defense (Jean Yves le Drian, now replaced by Le Cornu) has slightly rejoiced about his defeat - during his own exit speech, the irony.
You have to wonder when was the last time Le Brigan made something really useful for France.Wait, Morrison has lost elections ? I ask this question because former French Minister of Defense (Jean Yves le Drian, now replaced by Le Cornu) has slightly rejoiced about his defeat - during his own exit speech, the irony.
In fact, the double entendre is "cuckhold".And his successor has the rather unfortunate name of "Le Cornu". It means "with horns" but it also has a secondary meaning: "cuckoo" and I don't mean the bird, but rather, eeeerh, the husband. Sebastian the Cukoo, can you believe that ?
So: l'armée française risque fort d'être Le Cornu de cette affaire...