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covert_shores said:i think that this would have precisely the opposite effect and reinforce China's sense of righteousness surrounding owning the south China sea.
I wasn’t being super serious with that idea. But it does illustrate a point that the USA and friends (the 1,000 ship navy) have a huge overmatch against China in air sea warfare. The USA and friends also have massive underutilized potential. Though there is clearly a lack of political will to utilise this potential for defence purposes. The point being if they want to the USA and co. can easily dissuade China with military force. Either by building a giant ferro-steel fortress to sit off Shanghai or more realistically to deploy significant conventional air sea combat power into the region. That they aren’t is either a realistic appreciation of China’s lack of actual military intent or a terrible case of strategic myopia. History will decide which one.
covert_shores said:In a hot war scenario I can imagine China has more than enough subs and surface combatants to break out through all choke points simultaneously regardless of which neighbors are involved. Most of the surface combatants would have to return or RZ in whatever turns out to be the real focus area after a few days but the initial numeric advantage is clear. The SSNs are clearly the greatest threat once lose in the Pacific due to their persistence.
Underwater maybe but not with surface fleets. Surface ships cannot survive against enemy tac air without their own organic tac air (carriers). The USA, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Australia all have plentiful maritime ISR and tac air with excellent anti ship missiles within or rapidly deployable to the region in strength. Any Chinese attempt to sortie their surface fleet through one or all of their choke points would result in a massacre. Bases like this one in the Spratly Islands enable them to operate with shore based air support within the southern half of the South China Sea like they would within the northern half and the East China Sea but they would not be able to support a break out against the regional A Team.