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The problem here is the near miss distance could be within the length of the gravity gradient booms on the NRO satellite as you can see from this Tweet.
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www.leolabs.space
The NASA/NIVR IRAS satellite and the NRO/USN POPPY 5B satellite (aka GGSE 4) are predicted to make a close approach on Wednesday. POPPY 5B has 18-metre-long gravity gradient booms so a 15-to-30 metre predicted miss distance is alarming https://t.co/H1UckcoaAH
— Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) January 27, 2020
Our latest data on the IRAS / GGSE 4 event shows potential miss distances of 13-87 meters, with a lowered collision probability currently at 1 in 1000. Time of closest approach remains at 2020-01-29 23:39:35.707 UTC
— LeoLabs (@LeoLabs_Space) January 28, 2020
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LeoLabs | Persistent Orbital Intelligence Propelling the dynamic space era
LeoLabs is transforming low Earth orbit through LeoLabs Vertex™ — the world’s first vertically integrated commercial space operations stack.

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