Kan falls into bureaucrats' trap with G-8 energy proposals.
BY YASUAKI OSHIKA ASAHI SHIMBUN WEEKLY AERA
2011/06/02
Largely pushed aside in disaster-response talks, Prime Minister Naoto Kan found himself with too much time on his hands. That's when bureaucrats lectured him about the benefits of renewable energy sources, leading to his announcement at the Group of Eight summit in France that Japan will increase the ratio of electricity generated by renewable energy sources to at least 20 percent by 2020.
But Kan made that international pledge without careful thought--and not realizing that he had been skillfully used by bureaucrats trying to protect their turf.
The promise at the G-8 summit had its embryo in a meeting on May 9.
Environment Ministry officials, including Administrative Vice Minister Hideki Minamikawa, Junichi Shiraishi, director-general of the Environmental Policy Bureau, and Masaki Suzuki, director-general of the Global Environment Bureau, explained various policy possibilities to Kan. They knew which topics the prime minister was genuinely interested in.
"Prime minister, how about building a monument in memory of the disaster victims from the rubble that was produced by the earthquake and tsunami?" one of the officials said. "Moreover, our ministry has conducted an analysis that found the Tohoku region has the latent ability to introduce various forms of renewable energy, such as wind, solar and geothermal power."
Kan was particularly interested in the renewable energy proposal, partly because he had grown increasingly frustrated at Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s delayed response to the accident at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant.
Not only did Environment Ministry officials stress the possibilities for natural energy sources, but they also submitted a report of a study about the feasibility of introducing renewable energy sources in the Tohoku region.
Kan responded immediately.
"I have always been thinking about changing society through renewable energy," Kan said. "The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has no interest in pursuing it. Can your ministry do it?"
Suzuki responded, "There will be a need for measures that can guide the entire government."
Kan's eyes lit up, according to those at the meeting.
"This will be a chance to utilize renewable energy," Kan said. "Even though there were separate small measures, there was no comprehensive, macro-level picture. Can the Environment Ministry put together a radical new picture? I will assume the responsibility, so think of this as homework and come back with an answer by the end of this week."
Kan added: "We will rethink the government's energy policy from zero. I want to have two new pillars for that policy, renewable energy and energy conservation."
The following day, Kan held a news conference in the afternoon to announce the government's intention to review its energy plan, which called for raising the ratio of electricity generated through nuclear power to 52 percent by 2030.
But there were no signs that Kan made careful preparations or thought deeply about that review. He simply repeated what he told the Environment Ministry bureaucrats at the May 10 news conference.
"While nuclear energy and fossil fuels were the two main pillars of the government's energy policy, we believe two additional pillars are necessary based on the latest nuclear accident and in thinking about global warming," Kan said. "One pillar will be renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power. The other will be energy conservation."
The media played up Kan's plan. And given the nation's growing apprehension toward nuclear energy, the prime minister found an issue that could push up his sagging public support ratings.
In its March 11 morning edition, The Asahi Shimbun reported that Kan had received 1.04 million ($12,700) in illegal donations from an ethnic Korean living in Japan.
Because the Great East Japan Earthquake struck a few hours later, Kan was able to escape the fate that befell Seiji Maehara, who resigned as foreign minister after reports that he received similar donations.
Having received an extension on his political life, Kan used the momentum to visit the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant and yell at TEPCO executives for their slow response.
His anger at the TEPCO executives was welcomed by the public. But his request on May 6 to Chubu Electric Power Co. to stop operations at its Hamaoka nuclear power plant drew even wider applause.
Four days later, Kan announced the government would review its energy policy.
At that time, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Tetsuro Fukuyama, a close Kan associate, excitedly told those close to him, "This will unquestionably become a page in history."
However, other staff at the Prime Minister's Official Residence painted a different picture of Kan.
"He wants to put on airs and makes haphazard decisions," one staff member said. "Not just Kan, but many DPJ politicians are only concerned about how they appear to or are seen by the public."
Because Kan has berated experienced bureaucrats in their 50s, few want to establish close ties with the prime minister.
Most of the day-to-day matters of the government are left to Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano and his deputies.
When the final touches were being put on the framework to help TEPCO make compensation payments, meetings of the relevant Cabinet ministers were held on an almost daily basis. But Kan was not invited to those talks.
"He will always wreck the discussions if he takes part," a source in the Prime Minister's Official Residence said.
Kan was only allowed to take part on May 12, the day before the framework proposal was formally announced.
Despite Japan's unprecedented crisis on several fronts, Kan's appointment calendar had many blank spaces from late April until the Golden Week of national holidays in early May.
Worried about such an unacceptable situation, officials quickly made arrangements for the administrative vice ministers of the central government ministries to explain policy to Kan.
Minamikawa and his subordinates at the Environment Ministry visited Kan on that premise.
Minamikawa was only the third administrative vice minister to have come up through the ranks of the Environment Ministry.
For a long time, bureaucrats from the old Finance Ministry and Health and Welfare Ministry often served in important posts at the Environment Ministry, giving it the appearance of an affiliated agency.
Minamikawa was dispatched for about two years to the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, so he was knowledgeable about energy policy.
It wasn't long before officials of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), which normally is in charge of energy policy, realized what the Environment Ministry officials had proposed.
METI officials had also presented Kan with a proposal to increase solar power generation by 15 times by 2030, but they did not receive a similar positive response.
After the Environment Ministry bureaucrats visited Kan, documents marked confidential were submitted to Kazuo Matsunaga, vice minister of economy, trade and industry, and other top METI officials.
Some METI officials were concerned about the Environment Ministry intruding on their jurisdiction. Others were more calculated.
The Environment Ministry, Hiroshi Tasaka, a professor at the Tama University Graduate School of Business who was serving as special adviser to the Cabinet and advocates renewable energy sources, and Masayoshi Son, chairman and CEO of Softbank Corp. who has called for a move away from nuclear energy, appeared to be drawing Kan into their camp. That would mean trouble for METI.
But one METI official said: "We should do the same thing and plant our ideas into Kan's head. We can also bring Son into the picture as well."
On May 12, Matsunaga and Ikuro Sugawara, director-general of the Industrial Science and Technology Policy and Environment Bureau, visited the Prime Minister's Official Residence.
While presenting their own documents, Sugawara explained to Kan: "We will create three energy revolutions through a non-consecutive technology development. Japan will be reborn as a technology superpower that no other nation in the world can emulate."
Sugawara, who served as an assistant to Yasuo Fukuda when he was prime minister, has long been known for his skill in convincing politicians.
After the DPJ took over the government, Sugawara contacted an influential DPJ official and presented a proposal for handling the bankruptcy of Japan Airlines Corp., even though it was out of METI's jurisdiction. DPJ officials considered Sugawara as someone they could work with.
It was not difficult for Sugawara to convince Kan about new energy policy possibilities.
When Sugawara said quantum dot solar cells would have three times the energy efficiency of normal solar cells, Kan said: "What did you say? That's incredible."
Sugawara also mentioned that lithium-air batteries would allow electric vehicles that can now only travel 100 kilometers to cover up to 1,000 kilometers.
Kan responded, "This is simply incredible."
Sugawara also said with superconductivity technology, the power transmission energy loss would be cut to one-tenth current levels.
Kan repeated his comments: "This is incredible. This is truly incredible stuff."
Sugawara added that by using nanocarbons, automobiles and airplanes could be made about 30 percent lighter.
Kan said: "It would have electrical conductivity that was 1,000 times that of copper. That is incredible."
And when Sugawara said METI has innovative catalysts, Kan's response was as expected.
"Incredible," the prime minister said. "Would that mean artificial photosynthesis? Would the catalysts be used in place of chlorophyll?"
When METI officials explained that using such technology would produce the same amount of electricity now generated by 14 nuclear power plants, Kan was so stunned he did not realize he had fallen into the carefully laid trap by the ministry.
The secret to the METI strategy was to take advantage of the fact that Kan studied natural sciences when he attended the Tokyo Institute of Technology. Knowing that Kan was interested in specific technology, METI officials concentrated their explanation on such technology.
METI's ultimate goal was to win budget approval for new programs.
If an organization was established for companies wanting to take part in technology development, the head of that organization could one day be led by a retired METI official.
But the METI strategy was indeed "incredible." None of the technologies mentioned in the meeting with Kan can be realized in the near future.
"They deceived the prime minister by taking advantage of his exaggerated interest in the sciences. It is a terrible ploy," a bureaucrat said.
Kan, of course, never realized the true motives of the METI officials.
The Environment Ministry, meanwhile, had not given up.
On May 17, Minamikawa visited the Prime Minister's Official Residence, prepared to submit his "homework."
He explained forecasts for electricity generation in 2020 and 2030 based on renewable energy sources and energy conservation.
Under that forecast, renewable energy would account for 26 percent of Japan's electricity by 2030.
Kan used that figure to make his G-8 pledge on renewable energy.
During his talk with Minamikawa, Kan handed the bureaucrat documents submitted by METI and told him: "Because you were so earnest, METI also took hasty action and proposed a very drastic package of measures. Why don't you use it as a reference point?"
The science buff in Kan then took over and he rambled on about energy measures.
"For biomass, the brewing method is out. Gasification is the way to go. For gasification, there is a steaming method using low levels of oxygen and another where steam is added. The steam addition method is more realistic. Electricity will be wasteful as a heat source," the prime minister said.
"The Environment Ministry is in charge of rubble, isn't it? I want you to come up with a radical way of turning rubble into fuel. Of the 26 million tons of rubble created by the quake and tsunami, 5 million tons is lumber. That will be a very valuable asset as a fuel. We should build a rubble generator. After first using rubble as fuel, we can then move to lumber gathered through thinning of forests. There is such a project in Okayama, do you know about it?"
Minamikawa could only sit quietly and listen to Kan.
In the end, Kan said: "You should have more energy conservation measures. Electricity should be reduced by 30 percent through energy conservation. Can you redo the proposal along those lines?"
Minamikawa faces more difficulties because a 30-percent reduction goal is a high hurdle. Environment Ministry officials have yet to submit their new homework assignment.