JMR (Joint Multi-Role) & FVL (Future Vertical Lift) Programs

This weeks FVL news:

ITEP FARA delivery delayed until spring 2023 / Inside Defense

DATE: October 28, 2022

BYLINE: Evan Ochsner

Deliveries of the new engine the Army says will power its next-generation attack helicopter are delayed until the spring because of supply chain issues, the Army said Friday.
A top Army aviation official said earlier this year that he expected engines from the Improved Turbine Engine Program to be delivered for use in Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft helicopter prototypes in November.
On Friday, however, hopes that the Army, and General Electric, which makes the engines, would hit that target, were dashed.
“Over 95% of the FARA engine hardware is on-hand at GE and engine assembly is underway at GE’s Lynn facility,” a program executive office for aviation spokesman said in a statement. “However, due to lingering aerospace supply chain impacts and normal developmental technical challenges, the FARA engine deliveries are delayed until Spring 2023.”
The ITEP program has been beset by delays for more than a year as it has faced challenges from the coronavirus pandemic that had pushed back testing and manufacturing of the new engine, which the Army says will power FARA, as well as Black Hawk and Apache.
Those delays had already pushed back the projected timeline for FARA, a program the Army has said is its top Future Vertical Lift modernization priority and have placed the development of the engine at odds with best practices, a June Government Accountability Office report found.
That report, which said technological maturity testing had already been delayed by over a year, said ITEP already was facing the specter of a “costly, time-intensive rework of the prototype if testing reveals issues.”
Friday’s news presents yet another delay for ITEP, and potentially for FARA. Even before the latest ITEP delay, some close observers said FARA was a top candidate to be cut from the Army’s long list of modernization priorities.
Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville previously said that programs that are behind on cost, schedule and performance could be the first on the chopping block.
“What we’re going to take a hard look at is each program that’s under the 31-plus-four,” McConville said, referring to the Army’s list of modernization programs. “Tough decisions become a lot easier when you have a program that’s not on performance, that’s not on schedule, that’s not on cost.”
The Army selected General Electric in 2019 to develop the T901 engine for ITEP, awarding the company a $517 million contract to serve as the sole developer of the program.
GE this week declined to provide an update on the program, deferring comment to the Army.
Bell and Sikorsky, which are competing for the FARA contract, have for months said their FARA prototypes are almost entirely complete and awaiting engine delivery.

Amidst FLRAA delays, Textron CEO projects confidence / Inside Defense

DATE: October 28, 2022

BYLINE: Dan Schere

Despite what has been a months-long delay for the Army in announcing the winning bidder for its Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft, the CEO of the parent company of one of the two finalists says that company can “live within its guidance.”
The Army is choosing between a bid from Bell and a joint bid between Boeing and Sikorsky to produce the FLRAA, which will eventually replace the 40-plus-year-old Black Hawk helicopters.
Bell had anticipated a FLRAA decision this summer, but the timeline has shifted several months. During a third quarter earnings call with Bell’s parent company Textron Thursday morning, CEO Scott Donnelly said the most recent projection is that the Army will announce its decision next month.
Donnelly had said during a previous earnings call in July that the FLRAA delays would lead to a loss in profits for Bell this year, due to the need to retain the FLRAA team but not have the benefit of contract award money, Inside Defense reported.
During Thursday’s call, investment analysts asked what impact the continued FLRAA delays would have on Textron. Donnelly appeared serene, saying that Bell continues to keep the FLRAA team together as it awaits an announcement.
“While there is some uncertainty, we’re pretty comfortable that we’ve incorporated any impacts over the total year from where we were on our plan in our guidance. So, I think we’re comfortable that we’ll land inside that guidance, despite the impacts we’ve seen on the FLRAA delay,” he said.
Bell delivered 49 commercial helicopters in the third quarter of 2022, compared to 33 during the same period last year, company officials said Thursday. Bell’s revenues in the quarter were $754 million and were down only $15 million from the same period last year due to lower military revenues. The lower military revenues were partially a result of lower aircraft and spares volume in the H-1 helicopter program.
Bell’s segment profit for the third quarter was $85 million, which was down $20 million from last year’s third quarter. The company says the drop in profit was due to lower volume and mix.
Later in the call, Donnelly was asked if he could quantify the cost to Bell of the FLRAA delays, to which that he said he could not.
FLRAA "was in our original guide. That’s why we’re seeing lower absorption. We expect it to be kind of under contract at this stage of the game, but it’s something we’re managing our way through,” he said. “We can’t quantify or wouldn’t quantify exactly the number, but suffice to say we can live within our guidance based on where we are and our expectations on the FLRAA announcement toward the latter part of this year.”
When Donnelly was asked about what types of opportunities beyond FLRAA he envisioned for Bell, he said the tiltrotor technology could be of need in the other services, particularly those that operate V-22 Osprey helicopters.
“What we’re seeing with the Army, obviously that’s a huge opportunity to replace the Black Hawk class of aircraft," he said. "You will see similar programs in the Navy, in the Marine Corps and in the Air Force in one form or fashion, and our guys are highly engaged in those program opportunities.”
 
TomcatViP said:
I am flabbergasted that ITEP could be chopped (...).

Honestly what can't be less urgent than upgrading the power of all helicopters when Ukraine shows us that most models are sitting ducks at the range of speed and agility they operate today.
Click to expand...
Not ITEP. The FARA scout program. ITEP is to replace the T701D in UH-60M and AH-64E as well as being part of FVL.
 
yasotay said:
TomcatViP said:
I am flabbergasted that ITEP could be chopped (...).

Honestly what can't be less urgent than upgrading the power of all helicopters when Ukraine shows us that most models are sitting ducks at the range of speed and agility they operate today.
Click to expand...
Not ITEP. The FARA scout program. ITEP is to replace the T701D in UH-60M and AH-64E as well as being part of FVL.
Click to expand...
Aaahh, thank you.
 
Anyone know how well market analysis do at guessing outcomes?

Textron competitor likes its own chances in Army helicopter chase / Wichita Business Journal (KS)

DATE: November 1, 2022

BYLINE: Daniel McCoy

While Textron Inc. is seen as the leader in the clubhouse, its competitor for a huge U.S. Army contract with significant local defense ramifications has been touting its own chances during earnings season.
The Future Long Range Attack Aircraft (FLRAA) contract is expected to be awarded in November after delays — representing a previously estimated program value of $40 billion in support of the Future Vertical Lift initiative to modernize the Army’s helicopter fleet.
Not surprisingly, the potential to build thousands of aircraft for the service has become one of the most closely watched procurement programs on the near-term radar.
And its finalists represent some of the biggest names in aerospace.
Textron is offering the V-280 Valor through its Bell subsidiary against the Defiant X from a team of the Sikorsky unit of Lockheed Martin Corp. and Boeing Co.
“We’re pretty bullish on that program,” Textron CEO Scott Donnelly said on Oct. 27 during the company’s third-quarter conference call with investment analysts. “We’re in a good place. We’ll let the performance of our product stand and just work through the process.”
Equally unsurprising, however, was the similar confidence expressed by Donnelly’s counterpart at Lockheed earlier in October.
“We'll modernize the Army's rotorcraft fleet and represent a long-term franchise growth opportunity,” Lockheed CEO Jim Taiclet said during his company’s analyst call on Oct. 18. “We are confident that the Defiant X is the transformational aircraft that the U.S. Army is going to need to accomplish its complex missions today and well into the future, and we look forward to the Army's announcement.”
The chief executive continued on FLRAA later in the call in response to analyst questions by touting the speed and maneuverability of the Defiant X as being the best fit for what the Army has requested.
“We think it's the best solution for the actual frontline Army or other service pilot, and it's going to be up the U.S. government to see where they come out on that,” Taiclet said.
Textron, of course, has been touting the capabilities of the V-280 — an offering some industry observers believe has the upper hand.
In a research note early last month that was detailed by investment website Seeking Alpha, analyst Douglas Harned of Bernstein called the V-280 the “strong favorite” to win in the view of investors.
That same note speculated that a loss by Textron in the competition could trim as much as 10% off its market value.
Defense fingers in Wichita will be crossed for a Textron win beyond just the sales influx to the parent company of locally based Textron Aviation — which became home to FLRAA-related office of Bell in 2020.
That’s because a Textron win would tie in production work done by Spirit AeroSystems Inc., which produces the helicopter’s fuselage and is the city’s largest employer.
Spirit, which recorded a loss of around $1 million in the second quarter related to the delayed award announcement on FLRAA, will report its own third-quarter results on Thursday.
The local supplier has largely remained quiet on the V-280, as is expected of a subcontractor awaiting a customer contract win, but Bell CEO Mitch Snyder has previously put a fine point on just how big the contract would be for his company.
“You’re talking thousands of aircraft. What F-35 is to Lockheed Martin, that’s what FVL or the V-280 will be for Bell,” Snyder told the Dallas Business Journal in late 2019. “Winning the program changes everything for us.”
 
"...Macklin compares Raider X to a Ferrari."

I would not have used that phrase. The folks with the checkbook are not inclined to buy the Army Ferraris'. F-150 yeah, Ferraris no.
 
Spyclip said:
fortworthreport.org

Lockheed Martin shows off prototype helicopter as company competes for Army contract | Fort Worth Report

Football fans won’t just find a heated rivalry between Army and Air Force teams on Nov. 5 at the Lockheed Martin Commanders’ Classic game at Globe Life
fortworthreport.org fortworthreport.org

Macklin claiming 240kts for Raider-X speed - with a second engine. Freudian slip?
Click to expand...
Maybe he wanted to dispel rumors that Raider X needs a second engine to satisfy the current requirement* ;)

*Maximum speed: at least 180 kt
 
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VTOLicious said:
Spyclip said:
fortworthreport.org

Lockheed Martin shows off prototype helicopter as company competes for Army contract | Fort Worth Report

Football fans won’t just find a heated rivalry between Army and Air Force teams on Nov. 5 at the Lockheed Martin Commanders’ Classic game at Globe Life
fortworthreport.org fortworthreport.org

Macklin claiming 240kts for Raider-X speed - with a second engine. Freudian slip?
Click to expand...
Maybe he wanted to dispel rumors that Raider X needs a second engine to satisfy the current requirement* ;)

*Maximum speed: at least 180 kt
Click to expand...

Dispelling rumors usually isn't well accomplished by answering questions nobody was asking! Is that 2nd engine he is talking about another T901? Yikes!

Sikorsky has swung and missed on every X2 ship outside of the original tech demo on predicted Vh (the slick single engine S-97 was 40 kts shy). It's telling that they have made no mention of their anticipated single T901 performance this time.
 
This week's installment of the economics of FLRAA.

Why Wichita eagerly awaits a ‘game-changer’ Army FLRAA helicopter award
(Wichita Business Journal (KS), Nov. 17, Daniel McCoy)

A new U.S. Army Future Long Rage Assault Aircraft helicopter program could usher in a new era of defense work in Wichita. “It would be a game-changer,” says one local industry insider, who asked not to be identified because the contract hasn’t yet been awarded.
But when it is, if the contract goes to the Bell subsidiary of Textron Inc. (NYSE: TXT), suppliers in the Air Capital and beyond could be in line for significant work on one of the defense industry’s biggest programs.
"There are not many new starts, and new starts, if they're successful, they tend to be around for several decades,” Jeb Nadaner, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for industrial policy, said in a July report on FLRAA from Inside Defense. “So, these are always momentous decisions.”
Nadaner in that same article estimated a supply chain on the program of potentially “several thousand” companies, underscoring the opportunity ahead for Wichita.
“The industrial base issues are just — they’re mammoth,” he said.
So, what can Wichita expect and what does it need to watch for?
First and foremost is the award decision.
Textron’s Bell is offering its V-280 Valor in competition against the Defiant X from a team of the Boeing Co., and the Sikorsky unit of Lockheed Martin Corp.
After delays earlier this year in an expected award date, Textron CEO Scott Donnelly said in late October that November was now his best guess.
“The latest we’re hearing is it’s probably a November timeframe (on the award announcement),” he said on an investors call following the company’s third-quarter earnings report. “Obviously the Army is going through a very, very rigorous process here, so we’ll bear with them and let this thing play out.”
An Army spokesperson did not respond Thursday to a request for comment on the FLRAA decision timeline.
If it does come before the end of the month, the biggest boost to the local economy would likely come from a Bell win.
While there would undoubtedly be supply opportunities with the Sikorsky/Boeing team, the V-280 program has included fuselage construction by Spirit AeroSystems Inc. in Wichita.
But even after an announced winner, industry observers — many of whom see Bell as the favorite — expect a challenge from the losing side.
Once that is settled, the selected prime contractor can then get more specific on its supply partners for full production.
In the case of a Bell/Textron win, that would put Spirit in the driver’s seat for fuselage production. As aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia once told the WBJ of Spirit, there are only a few places in the world where you can go for fuselages — and the company’s experience on the development of the V-280 would only further work in its favor.
When the first V-280 fuselage first rolled out of rapid prototyping at Spirit in 2015, it came after just 22 months of design-build work, and, then-Bell CEO John Garrison said at the time, hit price points that would be critical to winning the contract.
But beyond major industrial partners like the Spirits of the world, the program will also drive work further down the supply chain, representing opportunities for smaller suppliers — scores of which locally already work with Spirit and Textron.
As an additional touchpoint for potential local suppliers, Textron in 2020 opened an office of Bell on Textron Aviation’s west Wichita campus, saying at the time the new location for its Texas-based helicopter unit was tied to its pursuit of Army contracts.
FLRAA is designed as a replacement program for Black Hawk helicopters, though likely not on a one-to-one basis.
While some estimates have ranged from 2,000 to 4,000 aircraft at a value of up to $40 billion, Aboulafia wrote last month that he expects a blended approach by the Army.
In an opinion piece published by Aviation Week, the analyst speculated that around 400-500 FLRAA helicopters would be needed for missions requiring range and speed, while around 1,000 UH-60s would be maintained for traditional, medium-lift roles.
“That does not mean the FLRAA program numbers will be insignificant,” he wrote. “There is an excellent chance that the Marines will buy into the program, particularly if the V-280 wins.”
Regardless of which company wins, there will be another chance for the competitors to cash in on the Army’s modernization plans.
FLRAA is in support of the Future Vertical Lift program, which is expected to generate a second contract competition for its Future Assault Reconnaissance Aircraft, which has previously been estimated at a value of up to $20 billion. Sikorsky and Bell are also facing off for that contract, though with different helicopters.
But the good news for Wichita — which always stands to gain with any new aircraft program — is that the modernization work is vital for capabilities in the Pacific, which has become a region of focus for strategic planners at the Pentagon.
Aboulafia said there are still risks, including geo-political changes by the time any of the aircraft actually enter service.
But for now, he wrote, FLRAA in particular is a program that the Army and Department of Defense want to get done.
“In short, strategic change has put FLRAA in a very strong place right now,” he said in the October article.
 
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The Hon. Mr. Bush has said that FLRAA will be announced this calendar year. Why mess up a national holiday when you can trash Christmas?
Bets anyone on what day?
 
sferrin said:
yasotay said:
The Hon. Mr. Bush has said that FLRAA will be announced this calendar year. Why mess up a national holiday when you can trash Christmas?
Bets anyone on what day?
Click to expand...
Same day as the B-21 rollout so it'll get buried?
Click to expand...
I have thought the same thing might be. Most of the aviation pundits will be focused on B-21.
 
Yasotay - Never discount the chances for maximum perversity from the customer, particularly with the year-end holidays coming up.

Therefore, my nickle is on the customer issuing not an award, but a BAFO request with clarifications at 16:41 hours on 23 December 2022. Said BAFO response to be submitted NLT 16:42 hours on 2 January 2023 with T&C effective for 180 days. A Daily Double will be awarded if, at this period, the Customer then requests a further BARFO over the July 4th weekend. If someone lights a fire under them, move the schedule for contracter response up to Memorial day weekend. (BTDT!)
 
aim9xray said:
Yasotay - Never discount the chances for maximum perversity from the customer, particularly with the year-end holidays coming up.

Therefore, my nickle is on the customer issuing not an award, but a BAFO request with clarifications at 16:41 hours on 23 December 2022. Said BAFO response to be submitted NLT 16:42 hours on 2 January 2023 with T&C effective for 180 days. A Daily Double will be awarded if, at this period, the Customer then requests a further BARFO over the July 4th weekend. If someone lights a fire under them, move the schedule for contracter response up to Memorial day weekend. (BTDT!)
Click to expand...
5378821d5f7fafe6d79317b366fecfb0c47615e5925d4cdf1fb412db47823170_1.jpg
 
This week's FVL news:

Army official updates timeframe on FLRAA helicopter award / Wichita Business Journal (KS)

DATE: November 28, 2022

BYLINE: Daniel McCoy



The acquisition boss for the U.S. Army says the service still expects an award announcement this calendar year on a helicopter contract with significant ramifications for Wichita. According to a report from Defense Daily, Douglas Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics and technology, confirmed the timeline for the award at a roundtable media discussion last week.
The comment comes as November winds to a close — the timeframe competitors for the potentially massive award had most recently been targeting following some slippage in the expected announcement since late summer.
Bush, according to Defense Daily, assured reporters that there were no problems with the contract and that the Army was simply going through its due diligence.
Bush's statements echo those of an Army spokesperson who told the WBJ last week that the service is following a deliberate and disciplined process” and that an award will be announced “when the review is completed and negotiations with the successful offeror are completed.”
But the acquisition chief’s additional detail that the award is still expected in 2022 gives those companies with stakes in the helicopter contract in Wichita hope for big boost yet to end the year.
The contract in question is the Future Long Range Assault Aircraft award, in support of the Army’s Future Vertical Lift modernization program, that will begin replacing Blackhawk helicopters.
That could result in production of hundreds or even thousands of new aircraft for the service, with previous value estimates on the work as high as $40 billion.
The competitors are the Bell unit of Textron Inc. and its V-280 Valor, and the Sikorsky unit of Lockheed Martin Corp. in partnership with the Boeing Co. and their Defiant X helicopter.
While there would likely be supply opportunities for Wichita regardless of which competitor wins, a contract award for Bell and the V-280 would almost certainly have a bigger economic impact locally.
As one industry insider told the WBJ earlier this month, a V-280 win could be a “game-changer” for defense work in the Air Capital.
Wichita-based Spirit AeroSystems Inc. has built the fuselage for the V-280 during the program’s development, putting Wichita’s largest employer at the head of the line for full production work once industrial partners are publicly specified following the award.
Additionally, Textron in 2020 opened a new office of Bell on the west Wichita campus of Textron Aviation. The company said at the time that the move was in relation to FLRAA contest and coming FVL procurement for the Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft program.
 
To paraphrase an old John Houseman commercial: "Bell didn't just win the competition, they earned it."
Bear in mind the lawyers are flying tonight. The protest will be in by the morning.
 
Was thinking about this last night and figured it was Bell for sure. Set aside performance for the moment. This would be the last opportunity to keep the tilt-rotor type alive for a long time. Once the V-22s are done delivering (if they're not already) that would be that. This keeps the type in production if you later want to build some ASW or other types that require more speed.
 
alberchico said:
www.defensenews.com

US Army makes largest helicopter award in 40 years

The Army has selected who will build its Future Long Range Assault Aircraft to replace the iconic Black Hawk helicopter.
www.defensenews.com www.defensenews.com

How badly could this program be delayed if Boeing brings in an army of lawyers to protest this decision award ?
Click to expand...
Boeing is not the team lead and so would not be the proper entity to protest, it would be Lockheed/Sikorsky. How long depends on how well the Army has prepared and how well constructed the protest is. The GAO can dismiss a protest fairly quickly if they think the protestor hasn't justified their position, that would be a few months of delay. Going all the way through the protest and then finding in favor of the Army and Bell you're probably talking a year. Going all the way through and finding in favor of the protest, thus requiring the selection to be re-done, would ultimately mean years of delay.
 
I prefer the Defiant layout for the mission, but I don't trust Lockheed at all. Bell looks ready to go, Lockheed will take 10 years and a 200% overrun to get something in service. It'll be first rate when it's ready, but late and twice as expensive isn't worth it when Valor is more than capable now.

Add in the potential for alternate uses for the airframe and I like the decision. Does it have the weight capacity to fit Erieye? Something like that would be great for anyone with STOVL carriers.
 

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