Evolution of the PLA in a continued Cold War

One thing I'll say is the PLA learns. They watched the Iraqi Army's communications net destroyed in Desert Storm, forced to ride to the sound of gunfire, and their Air Force evaporate, and the coalition forces destroying the Iraqis at their leisure. They went all out on modernization and haven't stopped yet.
 
Tianmen might still have happened even if the Soviet Union had survived. If it had, China would have tried to restore relations with Moscow.
Western influence was never very popular with the Chinese Communist party.
Assuming a vigorous younger Andropov style ruler in the Kremlin the two countries might have embarked on a joint response to the US build-up of the Reagan years
However, Cocom restrictions on the transfer of technology to the Communist Block would have limited what the new alliance could have built.
Of course China would also not become the economic power it is today.
 
overscan (PaulMM) said:
Archibald said:
overscan (PaulMM) said:
Archibald said:
A long time ago I bought this magazine.
0464723_1.jpg


It had a lengthy discussion about the state of the Chinese air force by 1987. Well, the Chinese were stuck with developments of the J-7 and J-8. Really. As you noted, only after 1992 did chinese scientists and engineers toured a moribund Soviet Union and stole or bought any interesting advanced technology they could fin, all the way from Varyag to Soyuz including the Su-27.
Before the Tien An Men bloodbath of 1989, however, China hoped to get more advanced aircraft technology, not from Russia or URSS, but from Grumman - from the United States. The slaughter and the following economic backlash and embargo really ruined China hope. They were kind of lucky enough the soviet Union collapsed and the newborn Russia was willing to sell them advanced technologies.
In the scenario you imagine, since the soviet Union does not collapse, China only hope remainswith Grumman, and this is tied to Tian An Men slaughter happening - or not. If it happens, then China is twice screwed.
Hence they are probably stuck with J-8 and J-7 for many years to come. Although they might create a new fighter type, it probably suffers from a lack of advanced avionics, radar and AAMs.
The chinese air force was well aware of this, and their mantra / dogma was: LARGE NUMBERS. The magazine I mentionned said they had 4000 to 7000 combat aircrafts, which is quite a huge numbers in the era of jet aircrafts.
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I don't agree with this at all.

J-10 was under serious development in 1987 already. Avionics and AAM development was underway (both with Israeli assistance/tech transfer), the only missing piece would be the engine. Most likely the J-10 would have had a reverse engineered R-29 turbojet in initial series production, switching to indigenous WS-10 when ready.

Su-27 was a great way to bring the PLA overall quality up quickly, but I don't see the loss of such imports radically affecting the longer term trajectory.
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Didn't knew about the Israel connection. Were / are the J-10 and Lavi related in any way, even indirectly ? Was it affected by Tienan Men butchering ?
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Israel sold Python-3 AAMs, fly-by-wire and other avionics items. They sold at least one EL/M-2035 radar, but the J-10 radar was largely indigenous building on AN/APG-66 knowledge acquired during Peace Pearl. Israeli engineers were involved in J-10 to some degree in the initial stages - Chinese sources say they were only on the fly-by-wire and other systems, but the suspicion is that at least some wider Lavi information may have been passed over.
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Curious if you know the Time frame of the radar. I’m trying to figure out what Radar the 1991 J-10 might have carried. If I remember they where looking into foreign radars as late as the mid 90s.
 

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www.defensenews.com

Why is China strengthening its military? It’s not all about war.

A grasp of the myriad drivers could help observers more accurately assess the danger posed by the People's Liberation Army modernization.
www.defensenews.com www.defensenews.com

Building a powerful military is also an important source of political power for the country’s supreme leader. Xi Jinping’s power hinges, in part, on his command of the military, which helps explain why he is often photographed in military uniforms or settings. Yet like his predecessors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, Xi recognizes that generous defense budgets are the price he must pay to ensure the military’s loyalty.

A fifth reason lies in keeping the military focused on its responsibilities and resisting tendencies of slipping into corruption and lethargy. Xi’s instructions to remain focused on military duties takes place within the context of a broader effort to improve the overall modernization, competence and effectiveness of the government, which authorities regard as critical to realizing the country’s goals of national revival.

Consistent with this broader imperative, Xi has repeatedly paired a crackdown on the rampant corruption with calls on the military to improve its combat readiness, which is another way of saying the military should become more competent at its job.
 
A

I always thought that whilst France was wheeling and dealing with PRC, they might have sold them the Snecma M53 at least....

An aircraft I thought the PLAAF might have pursued more vigorously - both purchasing and manufacturing, would have been the Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer .

Regards
Pioneer
 
In 1983 the PLA requested a batch of 20 Exocet, to arm Super Frelons initially. Not reportedly delivered.
 

China considers Rafale/M88​

1 April 1997
France and China are in discussions over the possibility of the Chinese air force acquiring the Dassault Rafale next-generation fighter aircraft.
Chinese officials, including senior procurement officers, initially visited Dassault in 1996, while, more recently, French representatives, including those from Rafale engine manufacturer Snecma, have spent a considerable amount of time in Beijing.
ADVERT

Dassault and Snecma confirm that there is Chinese interest in the French fighter, and the associated M88 engine, but decline to comment further.
The Chinese air force has several fighter-development programmes under way, including the Chengdu F-10 and FC-1, as well as licensed manufacture of the Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker.
Given the development work under way, Chinese sources suggest that the air force's main interest is not in the Rafale, but in acquiring the M88 engine. The F-10 (being developed with Israeli co-operation) and the FC-1 are initially intended to be powered by Russian engines, the Klimov RD-93 and the Lyulka/Saturn AL-31F respectively. China's aim may be to find an alternative source of combat-aircraft engines to those from Russia.

Beijing sources suggest that French officials are trying to tie the release of the M88 to the Rafale, rather than discuss the powerplant independently. Dassault is keen to find an export customer for the Rafale, given the limited orders it has so far from the French armed services. Some estimates suggest that, between 2005 and 2014, the air force will receive around only 140 Rafales. Deliveries of the naval version began earlier.
Such a low rate of production will inevitably have an unwelcome impact on unit costs.
Source: Flight International
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Thank you F-2. I have often tried to find an article on this subject in the past, without success.
 
I’m curious what might replace the J-11? Maybe the J-8III? Possibly the Rafale? WP-15 J-10 as the low end.
 
overscan (PaulMM) said:
Why not J-20?
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Oh yes absolutely, I was kinda thinking from the 90s on. The CIA J-8 report seems to paint a picture that the PLAAF needed to modernize by 2000.

We believe that, because an imminent threat is not perceived, and because of national pride and cost, Chinese purchase of a foreign fighter such as the Mirage 2000 is unlikely. A widely publicized Mili- tary Commission meeting in May 1985 codified the strategic judgment that China has a "window of security" until the end of this century to revamp its military forces before a major Soviet invasion is even a possibility. Moreover, Beijing's stated goal si self- sufficiency in weapons development and production, and the Chinese are wary, once again, of depending on a foreign country—as they did with the Soviets in the 1950s—for defense modernization. In addition, Bei- jing holds insufficient foreign exchange to finance the bulk purchase of aircraft and prefers either limited imports or technological cooperation to enhance its indigenous systems.
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Same report mentions possible Mirage 2000 co production, I had an article once mentioning Chinese interest in the mirage 4000 but I can’t find it. I suppose it depends on what happens in 1989.
 
Pioneer said:
A

I always thought that whilst France was wheeling and dealing with PRC, they might have sold them the Snecma M53 at least....

An aircraft I thought the PLAAF might have pursued more vigorously - both purchasing and manufacturing, would have been the Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer .

Regards
Pioneer
Click to expand...

At one point Mirage-2000 was on the table and a Chinese pilot was sent to evaluate it and was incredibly impressed with the aircraft. Unfortunately a moderate sized fleet would’ve consumed a significant portion of the military budget, and plans were dropped.
 
 

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