Eurofighter Typhoon

okakac said:
Brexit intends to replace losses from lost EU trade with increased efficiency from elsewhere. British control of the industry, especially defence.
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Nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit, apart from making it more difficult for everyone. Germany's the default European partner for Turkey on many things because of the depth of the Turkish diaspora there, but it's been more confrontational with the Turkish government of late than the rest of the partners, so it's not unexpected for Turkey to want to deal with someone else, and the UK is the obvious second string.
 
Makes absolutely no difference to the fact that Typhoon is neither required nor desired.
 
DWG said:
You seem to be repeatedly confusing people's ability to articulate facts or hypotheses with their political opinions.
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I have no interest in decreasing the US's influence in Turkey. In fact I personally would prefer to see the US influence increased.

But by imagining myself as Turkey, I/Turkey would want the US to have as little influence over me as I/Turkey can achieve. And by buying Typhoon I/Turkey can achieve that.
 
GTX said:

BAE Systems offers to upgrade Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jet for Türkiye with electronic warfare capabilities

BAE Systems offers to upgrade Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jet for Türkiye with electronic warfare capabilities
www.armyrecognition.com www.armyrecognition.com
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That's kind of false because we've heard from multiple reliable insiders (at the same time) that Turkey is planning to take over the orders of a Gulf country (Probably Qatar) for the first 20 aircraft.

Last I checked, the last 6 QEAF planes were still in production and the ones in service are still kind of brand-new.

As I've made it clear before, I am against this whole deal but at least TURAF have their eyes on planes that could be handed over relatively soon. It would've been even better if these planes were equipped with ECRS Mk2's instead of Mk0's but they don't have that kind of time since they sat on their asses and did nothing for too long...
 
timmymagic said:
This is an interesting thread....particularly around the comments around common baseline for the fleet...does this imply having the EK capability being able to be ported across airframes? Or what? Looks like the hope for further German orders beyond the intial EK, Quadriga and additional 20 a/c has diminished though.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1846123791077785808
View: https://x.com/GarethJennings3/status/1846123791077785808
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Maybe the wing mounted systems of EK get integreated into the pylon for WVRAAMs which may even get modefied anyway if they build Iris-T FCAAM. Afterall tust would make space for the updated DASS and allows the EK "soft-kill' capabilitys for all jets (or atleast step 1 capabilitys which i see as the "soft-kill" part with step 2 bringing actual jammer as "hard-kill" system).

Edit: In the end it would be like Terma pylon based sollutions.
 
snne said:
That's kind of false because we've heard from multiple reliable insiders (at the same time) that Turkey is planning to take over the orders of a Gulf country (Probably Qatar) for the first 20 aircraft.
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Not sure how you're getting 'kind of false' given it's entirely possible to update aircraft with ECRS Mk.2 after delivery.
 
kqcke for you said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1853687219615121867
View: https://x.com/GarethJennings3/status/1853687219615121867
https://twitter.com/x/status/1853760477290996023
View: https://x.com/GarethJennings3/status/1853760477290996023
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If i understand it right then T5 will be T4 airframe with EK wingtip pods and pirate? But doesnt the DASS Suite a complete remake which also include new self protection / redone wingtip pods. How does that fit in and why now pirate? Also will pirate get some upgrade ?
 
Time to update the list again then....last update in July...all changes in Potential Orders. Have removed Orders with zero potential/historical, and have moved the potential for future Spanish orders lower in priority as it appears to be a few years away, with others moving up...

Orders still being built...

28 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Kuwait
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Qatar
Total - 52 x Typhoon

Ordered or 'due to be...' - On contract in Bold

38 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Germany under Project Quadriga
20 x Typhoon to Germany under 'Project Quadriga 2'...the official name is still not announced yet?
15 x Typhoon EK to Germany - Now called EK instead of ECR. Airbus has said is unlikely that just 15 will be ordered. However, these are upgrades of existing airframes*
20 x Typhoon Tranche 4 to Spain under Project Halcon, to replace oldest EF-18
25 x Typhoon 4 to Spain under Project Halcon 2, to replace some of the remaining EF-18 (64 in total remaining, plus 13 AV-8B+).
24 x Typhoon to Italy - Now confirmed as Tranche 1 replacements, apparently with ECRS Mk.0 radar (that bit doesn't make huge sense, but Italy has built the Kuwaiti Typhoon with ECRS Mk.0).

Total - 127 x Typhoon * Typhoon EK added in for completeness, but not in the Total as the initial 15 will be conversions of existing aircraft.

Potential Orders...in order of probability...
48 - 54 - 72 x Typhoon to Saudi Arabia - 48 to 72 has been previously mentioned, but 54 is a new number from Gareth Jennings
12 x Typhoon to Qatar - Qatar have an option on an additional 12 a/c from their current contract
24 - 40 x Typhoon to Turkey - Talks underway, 24 wanted initially with 'up to 40' mentioned. 48 has also been mentioned before...
30 (up to) x Typhoon Tranche 4/5/LTE? to Germany to replace non-nuclear Tornado - Reduced to 30 from 50 due to 'Quadriga 2', expected in next budget cycle. But...'next budget cycle' could mean more F-35, fewer than 30 Typhoon.... or nothing...
15 (up to) x Typhoon EK to Germany - Second batch of new build EK
32 x Typhoon to Poland - Poland appears to want more 2 more squadrons of fighters specifically for air superiority and Eurofighter have been pitching it heavily...normally you'd assume F-35 would be in the lead, but the Poles don't seem averse to multiple platforms in any domain and they may want cover in case the US gets Trump again...(increased from 24 to 32 from last time). F-15EX also in running.
25 (up to) x Typhoon to Spain - Potential up to another 25 under a 'Project Halcon III', bumped up the list as rumours from Spain recently have significantly downplayed F-35....perhaps only a small number of F-35B will be ordered if at all (but what choice does the Armada have?).
24 x Typhoon Tranche 3 to Egypt - Moved to 'Potential' as no recent news. Still not ordered, total radio silence...I do wonder if the recent Italian order of 24 is 'compensation' for an order that is now unlikely to happen...

Total - 210-240 x Typhoon

Potential Orders...so low probability don't deserve to be on above list...or in totals

12-24 x Typhoon to Malaysia - An ongoing saga... since the 2000's. The MRCA requirement. However, Malaysia has had issues with SU-30MKI reliability and their concerns will only increase post Ukraine war, FA-18D is also, generally, on the way out. They can't afford to be an orphan operator for long post 2030 with 8 a/c. Issues around EU palm oil ban, but the UK being out of the EU could help...either way its a slow burner...still serious finance issues. I think they're unlikely to go Russian or Chinese, KF-21 now clear frontrunner after the recent TA-50 win for S.Korea in the LCA competition, however that is mired in the usual corruption allegations...
? x Typhoon to United Kingdom - Putting this on the list as I guess it needs to be there given industry lobbying...but I don't think will happen...But will BAE have enough going on to bridge the production gap until GCAP? Would getting T2's ECRS mk.2 help? What happens if Saudi's order never arrives? Does UK Gov step in with an order (like I suspect Italy are doing..). Or is component manufacture for others Typhoons, Typhoon upgrades and F-35 sufficient...? We won't hear anything until after SDR....the only real possibility is if GCAP is delayed...

Total - 12- 24 - ? x Typhoon (very unlikely)

A Question...still outstanding...Tranche 1 secondhand sales...

The RAF is ''Reduce to Produce'ing' all of its Tranche 1 Typhoon. What happens to the Spanish, German and now Italian Tranche 1's when replaced by Quadriga, Halcon and new Italian order? And also the Austrian Tranche 1's when withdrawn? There could be >120 low mileage (less than half lifetime airframe hours) Typhoon Tranche 1 on the market over the next 6/7 years, all with some upgrade potential....I've advocated sending them to Ukraine for free, be interesting to see what the users do....will they scrap for parts like RAF? Or sell on? (and if so who is in the market) Or gift to Ukraine?

Realistically...

I think there will now definitely be >200 new build Typhoon (excluding the Kuwaiti and Qatari ones that are already being built and being delivered). It certainly won't hit 367 like Ordered and Potential Orders tally to above, but there is a very reasonable shot of getting as high as 260....which is an astonishing turnaround from 5 years ago.
 
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I don't expect Spain to replace their Harriers with Typhoons, those will have to be F-35Bs regardless of cost. So there may be some additional F35s bought to try to increase their spare parts stock. I wouldn't expect more than one squadron of F-35Cs (Cs due to air refueling receptacle). So, 12-16x -Bs and about the same number of -Cs.

As for Tranche 1 Typhoons, I would hope that the Ukraine situation is over before the Tranche 1s are available. But I doubt that will happen, so I'd hope to see some Typhoons in blue and yellow in the next couple of years. Has anyone sent Meteors to Ukraine yet? Or would Typhoons be the introduction of Meteors there?
 
If Ukraine does get some Tranche 1 Typhoons I wonder what sort of upgrades they'd be given?
 
Scott Kenny said:
I don't expect Spain to replace their Harriers with Typhoons, those will have to be F-35Bs regardless of cost. So there may be some additional F35s bought to try to increase their spare parts stock. I wouldn't expect more than one squadron of F-35Cs (Cs due to air refueling receptacle). So, 12-16x -Bs and about the same number of -Cs.

As for Tranche 1 Typhoons, I would hope that the Ukraine situation is over before the Tranche 1s are available. But I doubt that will happen, so I'd hope to see some Typhoons in blue and yellow in the next couple of years. Has anyone sent Meteors to Ukraine yet? Or would Typhoons be the introduction of Meteors there?
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Spain only really needs F-35B for the Juan Carlos I. There is zero chance of anyone outside of the USN purchasing F-35C. The Spanish A330 MRTT on order will have probe and drogue AND Boom....Reportedly they've cooled significantly on F-35 in recent years, hence why I've left a 'Halcon III' order in as a possibility, with a split between Typhoon and F-35B, which IMHO is far more likely than a joint F-35A and F-35B order.

No Meteors sent to Ukraine as no compatible aircraft at present. And realistically even if some Gripen C were sent they can't actually get the full benefit of Meteor anyway with their kinematics and radar...

Typhoon Tranche 1 to Ukraine would be a medium term thing. The majority of the c120 Tranche 1 only come available as replaced by new production in Germany, Spain and Italy (and Austria post 2030 if they actually replace with F-35A) over the next few years. The intention would be to give Ukraine a viable, cheap/free A2A platform that will provide some deterrence out to 2050 (because F-16 isn't going to or MiG-29/SU-27). And given todays events....one that isn't dependent on the US....there isn't any other Western fighter available in numbers, in a reasonable timeframe, with decent service life left, with the inherent capability/support and training available locally and crucially.... free/cheap in the next 20 years...because Ukraine, or what remains of it now, will effectively be bankrupt (unless someone wants to pony up the funds for new build F-35, Typhoon LTE, Rafale F5 or Gripen E....which isn't going to happen for a variety of reasons...).

NMaude said:
If Ukraine does get some Tranche 1 Typhoons I wonder what sort of upgrades they'd be given?
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The sensible upgrade would be the Leonardo AESA antenna on the existing CAPTOR-M backend which has been proposed in the past. It's not as capable as even ECRS Mk.0 but would give the Tranche 1's a lot more capability at a reasonable price. You could integrate JDAM, SDB1 comparatively easily alongside Paveway II and Litening (because the German's have already done it). Add in the existing Asraam, IRIS-T, Sidewinder, LaGS and Amraam and it would do....no Meteor though, and any cruise missile like Storm Shadow would be a very basic integration, which isn't a disaster to be honest.
 
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kqcke for you said:
If i understand it right then T5 will be T4 airframe with EK wingtip pods and pirate? But doesnt the DASS Suite a complete remake which also include new self protection / redone wingtip pods. How does that fit in and why now pirate? Also will pirate get some upgrade ?
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I don't know from where or what you derive your conclusions!?

The EK wingtip pods are unique to the EK variant. The DASS upgrade for P4E is otherwise more modest. LTE remains to be seen, but yes more comprehensive upgrades were at least proposed, what will be eventually contracted is yet another question. It can't be ruled out that EK stuff gets rolled out to the fleet in general, but that's just a theoretical prospect and I guess BAES won't like to lose a share in DASS due to EK equipment being managed by Airbus with Saab as supplier and other non UK sub-contractors.

And from where do you derive PIRATE here?
 
Scorpion82 said:
I don't know from where or what you derive your conclusions!?
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Primarly from the shown material and private talks i had (with people knowing more about then ne / got the better conncetions). But any of those conclusions / guesses can be wrong.
Scorpion82 said:
The EK wingtip pods are unique to the EK variant.
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And they will be integreated into german fleet which was already reported sometime ago.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1846123796333244738
View: https://x.com/GarethJennings3/status/1846123796333244738

Scorpion82 said:
The DASS upgrade for P4E is otherwise more modest.
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Yeah and are done mostly around the wingtip pods
Scorpion82 said:
LTE remains to be seen, but yes more comprehensive upgrades were at least proposed, what will be eventually contracted is yet another question.
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Scorpion82 said:
It can't be ruled out that EK stuff gets rolled out to the fleet in general, but that's just a theoretical prospect and I guess BAES won't like to lose a share in DASS due to EK equipment being managed by Airbus with Saab as supplier and other non UK sub-contractors.
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Thats why where my questions begin. Its not only BAE involved with DASS and i just can't see the wingtips replaced with the EK pods which also "replace" most of the Praetorian eVo stuff of P4E. But then again DASS eVo was meant to be more open for more nation specific requierments....
Scorpion82 said:
And from where do you derive PIRATE here?
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The shown material for T5 but the BW could allways go without it like they did before.
 
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timmymagic said:
No Meteors sent to Ukraine as no compatible aircraft at present. And realistically even if some Gripen C were sent they can't actually get the full benefit of Meteor anyway with their kinematics and radar...
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If they put TIDLS into operation, sensor-shooter pair ops would be possible, especially with the Erieye that has been pledged.
 
timmymagic said:
Spain only really needs F-35B for the Juan Carlos I. There is zero chance of anyone outside of the USN purchasing F-35C. The Spanish A330 MRTT on order will have probe and drogue AND Boom....Reportedly they've cooled significantly on F-35 in recent years, hence why I've left a 'Halcon III' order in as a possibility, with a split between Typhoon and F-35B, which IMHO is far more likely than a joint F-35A and F-35B order.
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Oh, didn't realize that the Spanish MRTTs had both drogues and boom. Makes it less likely to get F-35Cs then, and more likely to get -As.

I was under the impression that all Spanish AF planes had probe&drogue refueling, so their F-35s would also need to have probes, not boom receptacles. And the only F-35s with probes are the -B and -C.
 
kqcke for you said:
Primarly from the shown material and private talks i had (with people knowing more about then ne / got the better conncetions). But any of those conclusions / guesses can be wrong.

And they will be integreated into german fleet which was already reported sometime ago.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1846123796333244738
View: https://x.com/GarethJennings3/status/1846123796333244738


Yeah and are done mostly around the wingtip pods


Thats why where my questions begin. Its not only BAE involved with DASS and i just can't see the wingtips replaced with the EK pods which also "replace" most of the Praetorian eVo stuff of P4E. But then again DASS eVo was meant to be more open for more nation specific requierments....

The shown material for T5 but the BW could allways go without it like they did before.
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DASS eVo is a distant prospect that will most likely not play a role for P4E. My last state is digital ESM receiver (=ESM/ECM Proc LRI mounted in the AVS bay, not wingtip pods). Low bamd ESM extension won't impact the pods either as antennas will be located under the wings, close to the tips, but outside the pod. T5 in general is a distanz prospect for Germany and Chancelor Scholz's "commitment" is meaningless as any decision on that is postponed into the next legislative, which the current government coalition won't survive anyway. T5 has been a thing literarily since the Tornado replacement RFI from November 2018. LTE has been studied since 2016 and the dates keep moving to the right.


Concerning export prospects @timmymagic 200 A/C is rather optimistic. For Turkey it doesn't make too much sense, Qatar maybe, but no current indications, just an option that has been there since the original Qatar contract was signed in 2017. Saudi-Arabia 48-54, the 72 figure can be ruled out as long outdated. Follow on UK order, I concur, it's unlikely.
Halcon 3 I have my doubts, they have yet to sign Halcon 2 and the Italian follow on order is probably more of an industry political move that may indicate that Egypt is dead. Austria considered acquisition of three additional aircraft (used T1 presumably twinseats) and an upgrade contract was signed, interestingly with Italy as partner (Spain has its national T1 upgrades, GE and UK are retiring them).
Poland, I don't see it coming. Poland has been in the crosshairs since the early 2000s, what came out of this were F-16 Blk 52 and F-35A. I don't see them buying European A/C. I clearly weigh potential against probability here. Eurofighter forecasts have always been optimistic and were never achieved...
 
Scorpion82 said:
DASS eVo is a distant prospect that will most likely not play a role for P4E. My last state is digital ESM receiver (=ESM/ECM Proc LRI mounted in the AVS bay, not wingtip pods). Low band ESM extension won't impact the pods either as antennas will be located under the wings, close to the tips, but outside the pod.
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I have to look up the P4E enhancements up again but im pretty sure DASS eVo is it.
Scorpion82 said:
T5 in general is a distanz prospect for Germany and Chancelor Scholz's "commitment" is meaningless as any decision on that is postponed into the next legislative, which the current government coalition won't survive anyway. T5 has been a thing literarily since the Tornado replacement RFI from November 2018. LTE has been studied since 2016 and the dates keep moving to the right.
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Difference is that we still got some 11 billion euros which one can use. Yes unlikely in this legislative but still possible.
Scorpion82 said:
Concerning export prospects @timmymagic 200 A/C is rather optimistic. For Turkey it doesn't make too much sense, Qatar maybe, but no current indications, just an option that has been there since the original Qatar contract was signed in 2017. Saudi-Arabia 48-54, the 72 figure can be ruled out as long outdated. Follow on UK order, I concur, it's unlikely.
Halcon 3 I have my doubts, they have yet to sign Halcon 2 and the Italian follow on order is probably more of an industry political move that may indicate that Egypt is dead. Austria considered acquisition of three additional aircraft (used T1 presumably twinseats) and an upgrade contract was signed, interestingly with Italy as partner (Spain has its national T1 upgrades, GE and UK are retiring them).
Poland, I don't see it coming. Poland has been in the crosshairs since the early 2000s, what came out of this were F-16 Blk 52 and F-35A. I don't see them buying European A/C. I clearly weigh potential against probability here. Eurofighter forecasts have always been optimistic and were never achieved...
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I also see poland as an unlikely buyer but i think Halcon II is a "done" deal.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1853760477290996023
View: https://x.com/GarethJennings3/status/1853760477290996023

Tought Halcon III will be as allways a budget question but i don't think its unlikely.
 
Forest Green said:
breakingdefense.com

Germany has given a 'positive response' to potential Turkish Eurofighter deal: Official - Breaking Defense

Turkey is currently facing a fighter gap as it waits for its planned 5th generation KAAN fighter to come online in 2030.
breakingdefense.com breakingdefense.com
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It's no worthy replacement for the F-35 though. I'm not saying it's a bad fighter, in fact it's far from that but it's not worth all that trouble this late in the game.

F-35 was supposed to be the "deep striker" while Kaan was supposed to be a generic J-35, KF-21 or AMCA-class multirole.

Without all that F-35 drama, Kaan wouldn't have been redesigned late in it's development and evolve into an F-15-esque F-35 that it is today. This is also the reason why they want to deliver an initial 20-jet batch with interim engines ASAP to counter threats all around Turkish geography.

I get that TurAF is down some 150 planes and is going to be left with only ~240-something F-16B50s while surrounding countries field Su-30s, Su-35s, Rafales, Su-57s and F-35s in the mid term but it is simply too late to change this outcome until Kaan becomes available.

So I'm of the opinion that it is better in this contingency to funnel all this money and effort into other measures; such as modernizing your fighter fleet and investing in MUM-T; as well as improving the radar and IADS network and develop more accurate ground-launched long range missiles. (Which is what Turkey is currently doing).
 
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NMaude said:
The Su-57 is highly debatable as Russia has yet to secure an export customer.
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The point is that TurAF is down some 40% from it's usual fleet size and they only have aging F-16 Block 50s with mediocre sensors at their disposal to counter all these advanced threats. They're planning to split this fleet into two by making one half go through the Viper mod and the other into the indigenous Özgür mod with indigenous avionics, mission computers and radar.

But it's obvious that they desperately need new and superior stop gap aircraft. Now, any non-stealth plane that end up procuring would have been a stop-gap if it was done a decade ago but when they're this late, anything they end up with will simply become an outdated maintenance burden from late-2030s onwards.

World-Data-Locator-Map-Turkey.jpg
 
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Sintra said:
I imagine that Russia is one of those "surrounding countries", its just a 15/20 min flight from Sochi to Trabzon.

Cheers
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True, however except for shooting down a malfunctioning T-70 stealth drone the operational Su-57s the Russians haven't appeared to have been used in any meaningful way in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
 

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