Embraer C-390 Millennium (ex-KC-390)

The rate of delivery of two military transport jets per year suggests that the Air Force is expected to receive less than 20 aircraft in the future.
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Ouch. I wonder where the funds cut from the C-390 Millennium program will be going? Are they being diverted to the new provisionally titled Project KC-X3 program, or something else entirely?
 
Grey Havoc said:
The rate of delivery of two military transport jets per year suggests that the Air Force is expected to receive less than 20 aircraft in the future.
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Ouch. I wonder where the funds cut from the C-390 Millennium program will be going? Are they being diverted to the new provisionally titled Project KC-X3 program, or something else entirely?
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I hadn't seen the last part of your post.
Yeah probably that this is a factor. But IMOHO that won't preclude any further order to bring back 390's production on track on a latter day (but with a slight increase in price). KC-X3 and KC-390 are two differents products widely apart in the range of military needs. It's a good news that Brasil invests in a long range tanker transport.
Sad for them they missed buying those A340 that France sold at an incredible low price (if you can call it a price).
 
Grey Havoc said:
The rate of delivery of two military transport jets per year suggests that the Air Force is expected to receive less than 20 aircraft in the future.
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Ouch. I wonder where the funds cut from the C-390 Millennium program will be going? Are they being diverted to the new provisionally titled Project KC-X3 program, or something else entirely?
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Brazil is running out of money. Things were bad, but slowly getting better before COVID. With COVID on the scene... deficit for April 2020 alone was bigger than for the entire 2019 year(IIRC, we had a R$ 90bi deficit in 2019, and a R$ 100bi one for April 2020).

Sad for them they missed buying those A340 that France sold at an incredible low price (if you can call it a price).
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I'd be very wary of any 'cheap' French offer; at least for Brazil, these have a way of becoming way more expensive than the money saved in their acquisition(see Foch, Mirage 2000).
 
On an ironic note though:
Brazil’s GDP surges back to pre-pandemic levels (ft.com, registration or subscription may be required)

Brazil’s GDP surges back to pre-pandemic levels | Financial Times
Brazil’s gross domestic product expanded faster than expected in the first quarter, bringing Latin America’s largest economy back to where it was before the pandemic struck at the end of 2019.
Official data released on Tuesday showed that the economy grew 1.2 per cent from the previous quarter, when it expanded 3.2 per cent. Compared with the same quarter last year, the economy grew 1 per cent.
“The growth was quite surprising if you think that a little less than a month ago most economists believed that there was going to be a fall. This will spur hopes of a faster recovery for Brazil,” said Gustavo Cruz, a strategist at RB Investimentos.

Following the stronger than expected results — which analysts attributed to the country’s booming agricultural sector, an uptick in fixed investment and looser sanitary restrictions — several economists said they were revising their forecasts for annual growth upward to 4 per cent, from about 3 per cent currently.
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Grey Havoc said:
On an ironic note though:
Brazil’s GDP surges back to pre-pandemic levels (ft.com, registration or subscription may be required)

Brazil’s GDP surges back to pre-pandemic levels | Financial Times
Brazil’s gross domestic product expanded faster than expected in the first quarter, bringing Latin America’s largest economy back to where it was before the pandemic struck at the end of 2019.
Official data released on Tuesday showed that the economy grew 1.2 per cent from the previous quarter, when it expanded 3.2 per cent. Compared with the same quarter last year, the economy grew 1 per cent.
“The growth was quite surprising if you think that a little less than a month ago most economists believed that there was going to be a fall. This will spur hopes of a faster recovery for Brazil,” said Gustavo Cruz, a strategist at RB Investimentos.

Following the stronger than expected results — which analysts attributed to the country’s booming agricultural sector, an uptick in fixed investment and looser sanitary restrictions — several economists said they were revising their forecasts for annual growth upward to 4 per cent, from about 3 per cent currently.
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Yes, GDP is currently doing well(may not continue doing so - we may have a power crisis this year). Biggest problem in this case is deficit, though - money is short right now. Still two years of strong growth may give enough breathing room to go back to 28 KC-390s. Time will tell.
 
helmutkohl said:
www.reuters.com

Embraer shares drop as Brazilian Air Force cuts KC-390 order

Shares of Brazilian planemaker Embraer SA fell by more than 8% on Friday after the Brazilian Air Force announced it would unilaterally cut to 15 aircraft its order for 28 KC-390 military cargo planes.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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Ouch. But considering how badly Brazil's economy got battered by the pandemic this was inevitable. But I firmly believe that once economic conditions improve, they will order a few more aircraft.
 
alberchico said:
helmutkohl said:
www.reuters.com

Embraer shares drop as Brazilian Air Force cuts KC-390 order

Shares of Brazilian planemaker Embraer SA fell by more than 8% on Friday after the Brazilian Air Force announced it would unilaterally cut to 15 aircraft its order for 28 KC-390 military cargo planes.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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Ouch. But considering how badly Brazil's economy got battered by the pandemic this was inevitable. But I firmly believe that once economic conditions improve, they will order a few more aircraft.
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They may order more in the future, but I'm far less optimistic of future economic conditions getting better any time soon than I was last time I posted in this thread(I don't think it's likely that Brazil will recover until the end of the decade). Speaking of last time I posted, someone was asking where would the funding saved in buying less KC-390s go. I can now answer this: Gripen. The Brazilian Air Force is cutting KC-390 numbers to guarantee they'll have at least 36 Gripens.
 
Moveable, pressurized bulkheads can be handy when dropping cargo or parachutists from above 20,000 feet.
During the Afghan War, the USAF was tasked with dropping food to isolated hill tribes who were isolated by snow-covered passes. To avoid mountaintops and Taliban AAA, they dropped from 20,000 or 30,000 feet above sea level. Mind you, those altitudes barely cleared Afghan mountaintops. Low air pressure and low temperatures (minus 50 degrees before you consider wind chill) were rough on load-masters who had to work in the un-pressurized cargo compartment. Also consider that too fast de-pressurization could "bend" loadmasters and ruin their medical qualifications. Flight deck crew found it annoying to need to pull on oxygen masks, de-pressurize entire fuselage, etc. Flight deck crew would prefer a pressurized bulkhead just aft of the cockpit to allow them to fly in pressurized comfort for the entire mission.

"Bends" are a medical problem suffered by deep sea divers who ascend too quickly. If they ascend too quickly for disolved nitrogen to bubble out of their blood-streams, nitrogen can form in joints, causing permanent damage and permanent loss of diver's medical certificate. We have also heard of US Army freefall instructors getting "bent" while doing a half-dozen jumps per day from above 20,000 feet.
 
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riggerrob said:
We have also heard of US Army freefall instructors getting "bent" while doing a hlf-dozen jumps per day from above 20,000 feet.
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Not surprising. I worked with Navy salvage divers after the TWA800 salvage, and one of the unexpected lessons was that divers could get bent after prolonged periods of deep water dives even if they carefully followed the standard decompression protocols. These were surface-supplied hardhat divers spending 20 minutes on the bottom at 600 feet, then coming straight up and into a decompression chamber for a slow "ascent" to surface pressure. One or two days in a row was fine, but doing that for a month straight was punishing.
 
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isayyo2 said:
Damn, hopefully Sweden will order some finally…
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Even if they did (which I highly doubt will occur), they would only be looking at 5 - 6 which hardly makes a difference.

The best opportunity for the KC-390 would have been if the Boeing–Embraer joint venture had gone ahead and thus allowed for the KC-390 to have Boeing backing.
 
How big is the market for medium-sized, twin-fan military transports like the Japanese C1 and C2, Ebraeur KC-390, etc. We are talking about larger than a C-130, but lighter than a C-17. When I say "lighter than a C-17" I might be talking about a lighter gross weight, but the same diameter cargo compartment.
 
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riggerrob said:
How big is the market for medium-sized, twin-fan military transports like the Japanese C1 and C2, Ebraeur KC-390, etc. We are talking about larger than a C-130, but lighter than a C-17. When I say "lighter than a C-17" I might be talking about a light gross weight, but the same diameter cargo compartment.
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Theoretically it is quite large with some 1500 odd aircraft in that class either in service or on order around the world at present. Even if only half is realistically targetable it is still significant. That said, the dominance of proven platforms such as the C-130 coupled with the fact that many won't see the KC-390 as providing enough of a step change in performance means that the KC-390 is unlikely to achieve more than a fraction of that. From what I understand there are only less than 30 either delivered or on order right now with the majority being from Embraer's home Brazilian govt.
 
riggerrob said:
How big is the market for medium-sized, twin-fan military transports like the Japanese C1 and C2, Ebraeur KC-390, etc. We are talking about larger than a C-130, but lighter than a C-17. When I say "lighter than a C-17" I might be talking about a light gross weight, but the same diameter cargo compartment.
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I think its much smaller than the projections Embraer used to justify the launch of this program, which they estimated to be about 250 airframes. I just don't see them selling that many aircraft. One big advantage of a legacy platform like the Hercules is that any operator of this aircraft, whether they have new or second hand airframes, can tap into a vast ecosystem where they will be able to recieve all the technical support and assistance that they need wherever the world their fleet is located. Not to mention access to a large amount of inexpensive spare parts. Embraer cannot come close to offering this. Perhaps some nations that want to diversify their inventories like the UAE or Qatar could aquire some examples. Lastly the big problem that Embraer faces is that this aircraft is competing with second hand Hercules for sales among cash strapped air forces. I think sales will pick up in the coming years, but it will be nowhere close to what they were originally projecting.
 
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Bit of a surprise, the Dutch have chosen the KC-390 to replace their Hercs.

www.defensie.nl

Defensie vindt opvolger voor C-130 Hercules

Defensie heeft in de C-390M van de Braziliaanse fabrikant Embraer een opvolger gevonden voor de C-130H Hercules. De bedoeling is dat het eerste nieuwe transportvliegtuig in 2026 in Nederland aankomt. Dat schrijft staatssecretaris Christophe van der Maat vandaag aan de Tweede Kamer.
www.defensie.nl www.defensie.nl
 
muttbutt said:
Bit of a surprise, the Dutch have chosen the KC-390 to replace their Hercs.

www.defensie.nl

Defensie vindt opvolger voor C-130 Hercules

Defensie heeft in de C-390M van de Braziliaanse fabrikant Embraer een opvolger gevonden voor de C-130H Hercules. De bedoeling is dat het eerste nieuwe transportvliegtuig in 2026 in Nederland aankomt. Dat schrijft staatssecretaris Christophe van der Maat vandaag aan de Tweede Kamer.
www.defensie.nl www.defensie.nl
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Total of only 5 aircraft. Not a huge sale, but having a NATO air force select the KC-390 has to help the marketing.

And might improve its chances in the Swedish competition. Again, a small potential sale, but it all adds up.
 
€2.5B would be quite high a cost. Especially with a twin turbofans setup that should induce a cost reduction over a 4x Turboprops.

Congrats to the Dutches for being so forward thinking with their aerospace buy.
 
The 2.5B figure seems to be total cost of operation.

Doordat Defensie meer vlieguren wil maken, gaan ook de geschatte kosten omhoog. Aanvankelijk werd uitgegaan van € 250 miljoen tot € 1 miljard. Dat wordt nu tussen € 1 miljard en € 2,5 miljard.
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i.e. Because the MoD wants to increase flying hours, the cost estimate rises. Initially the estimate was €250 M to 1B, That will become €1B to €2,5B.
The initial estimate was 2400 flying hours (presumably for the entire fleet, per year), now the MoD wants 4000.
 
good news, Embraer could have really used those sales with all those cancellations domestically
 
TomcatViP said:
€2.5B would be quite high a cost. Especially with a twin turbofans setup that should induce a cost reduction over a 4x Turboprops.

Congrats to the Dutches for being so forward thinking with their aerospace buy.
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The V2500 engines are not new technology, quite old, in fact and less common than CFM 56s. Quite why 5 aircraft should cost so much, compared to an equivalent airliner is mindboggling. These 390s use a lot of parts out of the existing Embraer fleet.
 
Stovepipe said:
TomcatViP said:
€2.5B would be quite high a cost. Especially with a twin turbofans setup that should induce a cost reduction over a 4x Turboprops.

Congrats to the Dutches for being so forward thinking with their aerospace buy.
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The V2500 engines are not new technology, quite old, in fact and less common than CFM 56s. Quite why 5 aircraft should cost so much, compared to an equivalent airliner is mindboggling. These 390s use a lot of parts out of the existing Embraer fleet.
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As noted above, this is a total cost of ownership number, or at least across some unspecified number of years, not an up front acquisition cost.
 
Archibald said:
This smells more and more like Japan Kawasaki C-1, unfortunately... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kawasaki_C-1
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Probably more like the C-2. Only half the power.

Royal Netherlands AF chose C-390M (this time in English)
www.aviacionline.com

Embraer C-390 beats C-130J in the Netherlands and it will become its new tactical transport

The Ministry of Defense of the Netherlands has chosen the C-390M from Brazilian manufacturer Embraer as the successor and replacement for its C-130H Hercules. T
www.aviacionline.com www.aviacionline.com
 
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@ALL above, yes, I knew those were total ownership cost when I said that price was in the upper range. In anyway, that's their decision an it's great that we get to see the bird flying over Europe.
 
TomcatViP said:
In anyway, that's their decision an it's great that we get to see the bird flying over Europe.
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It will be great to see them in the skys....

But...this has got future sustainment and upgrade issues written all over it.
 
It's a surprise but probably the only logical choice if they didn't want to buy C-130Js. There isn't really anything else available in this size bracket from Western sources.
I think the C-390 will limp on, but as Trident points out above, the market is deceptive - raw numbers of C-130 class aircraft don't really reflect that most are brought in small fleets (and many C-130s in lower tier AFs are ex-US stock anyway). So it's never going to gross headline-inducing sales deals but if Embraer keeps faith and the line open (LM won't keep the Herk line open forever), they will probably turn a small profit in the end.
 
Don't forget that cruise speed of the Embraer design is much higher than what a C-130J can do.
Hence for regular flight to sustain an expeditionary force, having a turbofans aircraft with exactly the same internal dimensions as the C-130 makes sense (hub and spokes or even direct flight (once shortfield landing capacity are fully proven)).
 
Hood said:
So it's never going to gross headline-inducing sales deals but if Embraer keeps faith and the line open (LM won't keep the Herk line open forever), they will probably turn a small profit in the end.
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The one thing Embraer will probably come to regret is not moving sooner, allowing the C-130J to corner much of the replacement market for older Hercs. Plenty left I guess, but 10 years earlier considerably more would've been up for grabs, obviously.
 
are there any numbers on operational or life cycle costs of the C-130J vs the C-390?
 
The costs of C130s are a known cost whereas the 390 costs are probably not yet known because of small real world operating times. You could probably extrapolate some costs from existing Embraer aircraft.
 

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