LowObservable said:
My understanding at the time was that, as promising as the XL was, the two-seat version did not match the range/payload of the F-15E. Also, it really needed the Increased Performance Engine but the USAF was not out of the woods on the basic F100 at the time, and saw that as high risk.
Going back through various GAO and CBO documents from the time it is clear that the F-15E won the ETF competition, to replace the F-111 in TAC, because it was the better aircraft. It was also true that higher up-front R&D costs would be required for the F-16XL but apparently this would have been, to some extent, offset by lower aircraft purchase costs. However, initially the Air Force wanted the F-16XL as well and the development of an F-16F to begin in FY87 and enter production in FY89 was pencilled in. The idea was to split F-16 production between the C/D and the F variant with the F variant progressively taking a larger share of production so FY92 would have seen 120 F variants procured versus 96 C/Ds. It was then suggested by Congress that funding the F-16F might prove detrimental to the funding of the ATF (and at the same time the USAF was cutting back ambitions more widely anyway) and so it disappeared into the archives.