Chinese Stealth bomber program - XAC H-X (H-20)

[SOC]

It's all published in a Janes imagery report from earlier this year, but that means it's behind our paywall.

 

[SK2]

Recent rumors in Chinese aerospace circle suggesting H-20 project has stalled/paused, if not abandoned

 

[Blitzo]

Recent rumors in Chinese aerospace circle suggesting H-20 project has stalled/paused, if not abandoned

That brief rumour is about half a year old.

More recently, it seems that it is very much still occurring, though a to-arrive period is not yet known. What is more confident is that the PLA's 6th gen fighter (which I call J-XD) is expected to emerge prior to H-20.

 

[Josh_TN]

Recent rumors in Chinese aerospace circle suggesting H-20 project has stalled/paused, if not abandoned

I could see them having difficulty with their first 100% indigenous bomber design, but cannot imagine them canceling or even pausing the work.

 

[FighterJock]

I could certainly not see the H-20 being cancelled outright. There would be financial penalties that will affect the companies involved.

 

[SK2]

That brief rumour is about half a year old.

More recently, it seems that it is very much still occurring, though a to-arrive period is not yet known. What is more confident is that the PLA's 6th gen fighter (which I call J-XD) is expected to emerge prior to H-20.

The current 'stall' seems to be more long lasting, with some suggesting due to change of strategy, while others suggesting size and budgetary issue.

 

[Josh_TN]

I could certainly not see the H-20 being cancelled outright. There would be financial penalties that will affect the companies involved.

Not a chance, IMO. There may be delays: the only existing bomber of this type is the B-2 and the follow on B-21. The technology is not trivial, and I suspect in particular the PRC is struggling with engine development to achieve the range they want. I bet they could easily develop a stealth H-6 type right now, but that really does not move the needle much. If they want an intercontinental ranged tanker independent bomber, that is probably go to take a very unique engine from an industry that has very little commercial experience. PW can just take their F-135 core and commercial compressors segments and Frankenstein a high altitude, high efficiency end for a stealth bomber without even doing R&D.

 

[Josh_TN]

The current 'stall' seems to be more long lasting, with some suggesting due to change of strategy, while others suggesting size and budgetary issue.

I think the problem is a suitable engine. If they are just bombing Guam, they can do that now with just lots of ballistic or cruise missiles. If they can not reach Hawaii or Alaska, what is the stealth bomber buying them that a shit load of missiles could not do for less?

 

[Blitzo]

The current 'stall' seems to be more long lasting, with some suggesting due to change of strategy, while others suggesting size and budgetary issue.

Not sure about that, the nature of it isn't clear and my sense is there are some mixed signals.

I think the problem is a suitable engine. If they are just bombing Guam, they can do that now with just lots of ballistic or cruise missiles. If they can not reach Hawaii or Alaska, what is the stealth bomber buying them that a shit load of missiles could not do for less?

I don't think the engine issue would be too decisive, or rather the powerplant probably would've been decided at the outset of the project and it sounds like they were gonna use a non AB WS-10 variant.
If they've changed requirements since then and realized the engines are unable to accommodate the new mission then that's a different story, and is more of a "changing requirements" matter than an engine matter per se.


My feeling is that the priority of various big ticket projects in context of PLA needs and strategic situation and needs, means H-20 is not quite as important as the others not as time sensitive, so funding is behind redirected elsewhere first, but I don't get the feeling it is cancelled or heavily delayed.

 

[The K2]

Redirected funding….invasion of Taiwan, increasing their influence in the South Pacific, maybe space based weapons too.

 

[Blitzo]

Redirected funding….invasion of Taiwan, increasing their influence in the South Pacific, maybe space based weapons too.

Actually I was more thinking about J-XD, UCAVs/CCAs, long range missiles and hypersonics, SSNs...

 

[FighterJock]

Perhaps if not a full delay then perhaps we could see a very slight delay of between two to three years for the H-20 so that engine development can catch up. Look at what happened to the J-20 when it finally got the engines powerful enough to Supercruise.

 

[DrRansom]

I do not think the Chinese need a strategic bomber to invade Taiwan. If the Chinese agree, I could see that program being de-prioritized in favor of other projects which would be more useful for a cross-strait invasion. This would be reminiscent of the procurement decisions made in Europe in 1938/39.