Boom Supersonic Overture M1.8 SST

[steelpillow]

The big problem for Boom is that the money they need now is shifting from the really speculative VCs who are willing to throw (relatively) small money at a bunch of very high-risk projects in hopes that they will have a stake in one big winner. Now they need money in amounts that only comes from investors who aren't willing to lose that much all in one hit and are going to do a lot more due diligence before they pony up the cash.

The immediate problem is not cash for the plane, it is cash for an engine with an uneconomically small forecast market. Nobody is going to develop commercial supercruise until the military have paid for the basic R&D and the industrial-scale infrastructure for green fuel production is becoming a believable proposition.

Or wait, the Overture is basically a Concorde makeover; maybe R-R could warm over the Olympus for them yet again? But even that would need government money.

But even then, if today's soaring energy prices are a foretaste of what is to come in a truly green world, Overture will fail for the same reason Concorde did - too expensive to run.

 

[Archibald]

I think a few people have been shown what they believe to be compelling information. To the point where commitments are being made.

American Airlines places deposit on 20 supersonic planes

American Airlines says it has agreed to buy up to 20 supersonic jets that are still on the drawing board and years away from flying

abcnews.go.com

This makes American the third airline to make some sort of offer on Overture (behind JAL and United). But I don't think any of them are firm orders. United's contract is described as a "non-refundable deposit" but we don't know how much money is actually involved. The eventual order will only be executed only if Overture meets United's "safety, operating and sustainability requirements." Not having a viable engine is going to blow holes in that, as is not being able to fly them on 100% biofuel as promised.

IMO, These are FOMO (fear of missing out) tokens, not hard and fast commitments. I suspect there are financial incentives to put some money down now but they still have a very long way to go to actually flying in rev service.

The big problem for Boom is that the money they need now is shifting from the really speculative VCs who are willing to throw (relatively) small money at a bunch of very high-risk projects in hopes that they will have a stake in one big winner. Now they need money in amounts that only comes from investors who aren't willing to lose that much all in one hit and are going to do a lot more due diligence before they pony up the cash.

When Boeing SST was canned there were 115 unfilled orders by 25 airlines, while Concorde had 74 orders from 16 customers - PanAm included. Note that Concorde orders dried out in a few weeks early 1973, month BEFORE the oil shock. PanAm scrapping their order sunk Concorde even before the oil shock.

Everything in bold sounds like a repeat of Concorde vs SST "battle", 1963-1973. The story of the SST started in June 1963 after PanAm ordered 6 Concordes. A decade down the road the beginning of the end for Concorde was the exact cancellation of that order by PanAm.

 

[edwest4]

It depends what AA have "bought". I would really doubt they've paid up front.

When a company that large puts down deposits then they are serious.

Fortunately, their executives don't need to consult anyone here

 

[edwest4]

I think a few people have been shown what they believe to be compelling information. To the point where commitments are being made.

American Airlines places deposit on 20 supersonic planes

American Airlines says it has agreed to buy up to 20 supersonic jets that are still on the drawing board and years away from flying

abcnews.go.com

This makes American the third airline to make some sort of offer on Overture (behind JAL and United). But I don't think any of them are firm orders. United's contract is described as a "non-refundable deposit" but we don't know how much money is actually involved. The eventual order will only be executed only if Overture meets United's "safety, operating and sustainability requirements." Not having a viable engine is going to blow holes in that, as is not being able to fly them on 100% biofuel as promised.

IMO, These are FOMO (fear of missing out) tokens, not hard and fast commitments. I suspect there are financial incentives to put some money down now but they still have a very long way to go to actually flying in rev service.

The big problem for Boom is that the money they need now is shifting from the really speculative VCs who are willing to throw (relatively) small money at a bunch of very high-risk projects in hopes that they will have a stake in one big winner. Now they need money in amounts that only comes from investors who aren't willing to lose that much all in one hit and are going to do a lot more due diligence before they pony up the cash.

First you write "but we don't know how much money is actually involved" followed by "VCs who are willing to throw (relatively) small money..."

What was the point of all that? [Deleted by poster.] Forget about it until you hear that metal is being cut and a rated engine that can use the specified fuel has completed bench testing. A lot can be simulated now. Or you can write: "If I was AA, I wouldn't..." Well, you're not.

 

[TomcatViP]

Hey guys, everybody has an opinion. Don't put down someone that doesn't share your. Startups are very controversial. Some are good. Some are evil. Just like any men and women out there.
You don't share someone's PoV? Great. That's perfectly normal. Just tell her/him that (s)he got blind etc.. Etc...

 

[TomS]

It depends what AA have "bought". I would really doubt they've paid up front.

When a company that large puts down deposits then they are serious.

Fortunately, their executives don't need to consult anyone here

Who says it's a large deposit?

JAL's "partnership" investment back in 2017 was $10 million, basically chickenfeed. The terms of the United and American deals have not been disclosed but probably are pretty small. Maybe more that $10 mil, but not a billion.

I stand by the thought that these are basically small tokens from the airlines to hold their place in line in case this actually happens, a hedge against being scooped too badly by their competitors. It's also with noting that Delta isn't playing. Nor are the big lessors or any other overseas carriers aside from JAL.

 

[TomS]

I think a few people have been shown what they believe to be compelling information. To the point where commitments are being made.

American Airlines places deposit on 20 supersonic planes

American Airlines says it has agreed to buy up to 20 supersonic jets that are still on the drawing board and years away from flying

abcnews.go.com

This makes American the third airline to make some sort of offer on Overture (behind JAL and United). But I don't think any of them are firm orders. United's contract is described as a "non-refundable deposit" but we don't know how much money is actually involved. The eventual order will only be executed only if Overture meets United's "safety, operating and sustainability requirements." Not having a viable engine is going to blow holes in that, as is not being able to fly them on 100% biofuel as promised.

IMO, These are FOMO (fear of missing out) tokens, not hard and fast commitments. I suspect there are financial incentives to put some money down now but they still have a very long way to go to actually flying in rev service.

The big problem for Boom is that the money they need now is shifting from the really speculative VCs who are willing to throw (relatively) small money at a bunch of very high-risk projects in hopes that they will have a stake in one big winner. Now they need money in amounts that only comes from investors who aren't willing to lose that much all in one hit and are going to do a lot more due diligence before they pony up the cash.

First you write "but we don't know how much money is actually involved" followed by "VCs who are willing to throw (relatively) small money..."

What was the point of all that? Just whining? Forget about it until you hear that metal is being cut and a rated engine that can use the specified fuel has completed bench testing. A lot can be simulated now. Or you can write: "If I was AA, I wouldn't..." Well, you're not.

And neither are you! You have no idea what AA actually invested. I'll bet it's closer to $10 million than $100 million based on what we've seen in other similar cases. (Don't believe me, maybe believe Richard Aboulafia, who analyzes aircraft markets for a living.

We have a pretty good idea of what Boom has raised so far in investor funding -- just under $250 million in VC funding over six years. Maybe a bit more from the airlines ($10 million from JAL early on, unspecified sums from American and United), and $60 million from the US DoD. Plus some of the founder's own money, presumably. Definitely less that $500 million total.

Now they say they need another $6-8 billion (~12-25 times as much) minimum. If you think that isn't going to require a lot more scrutiny from investors, I don't know what to say.

My read is that we're approaching the same point in Boom's lifecycle as a company as we were with Aerion when they imploded. Aerion had a large number of "orders" as well, but couldn't convert that into actual operating capital to fund a complete aircraft development effort. Boom could power through, somehow, but I wouldn't bet on it. Certainly not with my own money.

 

[flateric]

500 musd - It's about a half of average clean sheet long-range bizjet R&D cost. Just saying.

 

[Archibald]

My read is that we're approaching the same point in Boom's lifecycle as a company as we were with Aerion when they imploded. Aerion had a large number of "orders" as well, but couldn't convert that into actual operating capital to fund a complete aircraft development effort. Boom could power through, somehow, but I wouldn't bet on it. Certainly not with my own money.

So it is a bit like the proverbial South Park gnomes and their underpant scheme.

Phase 1 - $500 million

Phase 2 - ?

Phase 3 -

another $6-8 billion (~12-25 times as much) minimum

Phase 4 - Boom Technology Overture aircraft

 

[edwest4]

My read is that we're approaching the same point in Boom's lifecycle as a company as we were with Aerion when they imploded. Aerion had a large number of "orders" as well, but couldn't convert that into actual operating capital to fund a complete aircraft development effort. Boom could power through, somehow, but I wouldn't bet on it. Certainly not with my own money.

So it is a bit like the proverbial South Park gnomes and their underpant scheme.

Phase 1 - $500 million

Phase 2 - ?

Phase 3 -

another $6-8 billion (~12-25 times as much) minimum

Phase 4 - Boom Technology Overture aircraft

Thank God I don't watch South Park.

 

[Flyaway]

This looks increasingly like a project from another age where world events have overtaken the proposal and now made it close to unworkable.

 

[Archibald]

You don't need to watch it to get the joke.

 

[edwest4]

You don't need to watch it to get the joke.

Joke? What joke

 

[NUSNA_Moebius]

Instead of waiting for an engine, if they're serious, they'll get the prototype built and flying on a military engine. Civil use approval or a new engine can always come later but it's too damn critical to wait on the perfect powerplant. Actual hardware flying and demonstrating the concept will bring so much more support on board. That's why they need the XB-1 flying pronto.

 

[Hydroman]

I hope Boom is successful, they have XB-1, best way to go, fly the prototype, get data, tweak and optimize and they may be able to produce the production Overture. I also hope results from the NASA/ADP X-59 program makes it way to the private sector. A good, low-boom footprint, supersonic aircraft, its time.

 

[publiusr]

Concord was upscale...but in the age of mega-billions...you don't need as many seats.

 

[Moose]

AvWeek's Check 6 podcast episode on the State of the Boom:

Podcast: American Airlines Goes Supersonic | Aviation Week Network

Nearly two decades after the Concorde was retired, is the rival of supersonic air travel for real?

aviationweek.com

Norris and Warwick seem cautiously positive if not quite optimisitic, Guy even speculates Boom has an engine in mind or is close to one but isn't ready to talk about it. But the episode contains soome good reality-check discussion too.

 

[TomS]

AvWeek's Check 6 podcast episode on the State of the Boom:

Podcast: American Airlines Goes Supersonic | Aviation Week Network

Nearly two decades after the Concorde was retired, is the rival of supersonic air travel for real?

aviationweek.com

Norris and Warwick seem cautiously positive if not quite optimisitic, Guy even speculates Boom has an engine in mind or is close to one but isn't ready to talk about it. But the episode contains soome good reality-check discussion too.

Richard Aboulafia speaks for me in that conversation -- companies like Aerion and Boom represent people applying Silicon Valley VC logic to domains that are totally unsuited to it. The supersonic jet airliner market can't be built like Uber, as much as people want it to be.

 

[Flyaway]

AvWeek's Check 6 podcast episode on the State of the Boom:

Podcast: American Airlines Goes Supersonic | Aviation Week Network

Nearly two decades after the Concorde was retired, is the rival of supersonic air travel for real?

aviationweek.com

Norris and Warwick seem cautiously positive if not quite optimisitic, Guy even speculates Boom has an engine in mind or is close to one but isn't ready to talk about it. But the episode contains soome good reality-check discussion too.

Richard Aboulafia speaks for me in that conversation -- companies like Aerion and Boom represent people applying Silicon Valley VC logic to domains that are totally unsuited to it. The supersonic jet airliner market can't be built like Uber, as much as people want it to be.

I am sure people said the same thing back in the day about Elon Musk and Space X.

 

[mkellytx]

I am sure people said the same thing back in the day about Elon Musk and Space X.

There were quite a few, but they also failed to take into account his involvement with Tesla. That was back in my days in space launch, most of the naysayer's were former McD, Aerospace Corp. types. The thing they failed to see was his experience in design for manufacture and fail fast, iterate. To be fair, they had years of over design, never fail to unlearn. If I hadn't learned Toyota manufacturing process years earlier I most likely would have listened to them, but I did which is why I told them he may be onto something on the other side of the 405...

 

[steelpillow]

Flight Global appear to think that Boom is "edging closer to commercial reality" (Subscription/account holders only, which is currently not me):

Supersonic revival: who will be fastest to the finish?

Almost 20 years after Concorde completed its final passenger flight, the aircraft its developer insists will be its more successful successor is edging closer to commercial reality.

comms.flightglobal.com

 

[TomcatViP]

For the last question that the author pretends to have had more than a minute long reflecting on (but, hey, everyone has a bad day with the lady once in a while), it's fairly basic to walk yourself to the obvious answer:

Finally, how does an airliner burning fuel at supersonic speed fit in an era when the industry is increasingly focusing on its carbon footprint?

If all private jet owners crossing the Northern Atlantic each day (for example) then fly on the same plane because it's twice as fast what they can own while also be incomparably cheaper... Find the right answer:
a/ carbon footprint will remain the same
b/ carbon footprint will increase
c/ carbon footprint will be divided by the amount of BJ owners using the newly offered service

Seriously, has anyone seen transatlantic shipping companies still offering crossing fare for passengers?

Spoiler: if you too had a bad day with him/her

The right answer is "c"

 

[martinbayer]

For the last question that the author pretends to have had more than a minute long reflecting on (but, hey, everyone has a bad day with the lady once in a while), it's fairly basic to walk yourself to the obvious answer:

Finally, how does an airliner burning fuel at supersonic speed fit in an era when the industry is increasingly focusing on its carbon footprint?

If all private jet owners crossing the Northern Atlantic each day (for example) then fly on the same plane because it's twice as fast what they can own while also be incomparably cheaper... Find the right answer:
a/ carbon footprint will remain the same
b/ carbon footprint will increase
c/ carbon footprint will be divided by the amount of BJ owners using the newly offered service

Seriously, has anyone seen transatlantic shipping companies still offering crossing fare for passengers?

Spoiler: if you too had a bad day with him/her

The right answer is "c"

Just to throw out a contrarian thought, not all potential SST or even SSBJ fuels are necessarily carbon based or dependent.

The full answer to the transatlantic crossing question can easily be found by an online internet search (yes, I'm that old), but a quick response is Cunard with Queen Mary 2. There's a market out there for everything...

 

[Archibald]

For the last question that the author pretends to have had more than a minute long reflecting on (but, hey, everyone has a bad day with the lady once in a while), it's fairly basic to walk yourself to the obvious answer:

Finally, how does an airliner burning fuel at supersonic speed fit in an era when the industry is increasingly focusing on its carbon footprint?

If all private jet owners crossing the Northern Atlantic each day (for example) then fly on the same plane because it's twice as fast what they can own while also be incomparably cheaper... Find the right answer:
a/ carbon footprint will remain the same
b/ carbon footprint will increase
c/ carbon footprint will be divided by the amount of BJ owners using the newly offered service

Seriously, has anyone seen transatlantic shipping companies still offering crossing fare for passengers?

Spoiler: if you too had a bad day with him/her

The right answer is "c"

Just to throw out a contrarian thought, not all potential SST or even SSBJ fuels are necessarily carbon based or dependent.

The full answer to the transatlantic crossing question can easily be found by an online internet search (yes, I'm that old), but a quick response is Cunard with Queen Mary 2. There's a market out there for everything...

Wait, are you suggesting to bring back ocean liners ? with ammonia as fuel maybe ?

 

[martinbayer]

Not bringing them back - they actually never disappeared...

 

[TomcatViP]

If I do apologize for the sardonic tone, please let's not compare business jet aviation (that do purposely offers quick transcontinental liaison to executives and wealthy individuals) and a niche market offering Atlantic crossing like it was in the past.

Unless someone can show us a 21st century stamped approval by a business accountant for a London-NY crossing on a Transatlantic!

Notice:
Feel free to come to the light, I am not an IRS undercover agent!

 

[martinbayer]

Sure, people travel for different reasons, and the market continues to offer different solutions for their wants and needs. The fact is that, while one solution is nowadays vastly preferred, it does not mean another solution no longer exists at all, as was summarily insinuated above.

 

[Moose]

More AvWeek engine speculation:

New Clues Emerge About Boom’s Supersonic Engine Game Plan | Aviation Week Network

Boom is close to unveiling its propulsion provider, as American Airlines Overture order boosts the supersonic airliner’s backlog.

aviationweek.com

 

[Rhinocrates]

The full answer to the transatlantic crossing question can easily be found by an online internet search (yes, I'm that old), but a quick response is Cunard with Queen Mary 2. There's a market out there for everything...

I remember watching a documentary on the construction of the QM2 and the Cunard CEO of the time said that they started receiving so many enquiries after the success of the film Titanic that they realised that there was a market for glamorous transatlantic liners. Apparently the not-sinking feature was the unique selling proposition that made it viable.

 

[TomS]

More AvWeek engine speculation:

New Clues Emerge About Boom’s Supersonic Engine Game Plan | Aviation Week Network

Boom is close to unveiling its propulsion provider, as American Airlines Overture order boosts the supersonic airliner’s backlog.

aviationweek.com

The AvWeek website is giving me quite a run-around. Article says it is part of " Aviation Week Network's complimentary online access" but it's not visible even when I'm logged in.

 

[jsport]

As Boom Seeks Engine, Airlines Mull Supersonic Use Case | AIN

The most recent Boom Overture customer, American Airlines, says it will work with the manufacturer to determine route scenarios for the supersonic jet.

www.ainonline.com

Rolls-Royce Withdraws From Boom Supersonic Project | Aviation Week Network

The decision by Rolls-Royce narrows the list of potential engine providers for the Mach 1.7 Overture airliner project.

aviationweek.com

 

[steelpillow]

Interesting to see that American Airlines have no specific routes in mind, but will wait and see what Boom come up with first. Usually it's the airline's passenger demand that drives the aircraft specification, not the other way round. Hard to put together a business case if you don't know why or from where your revenue is going to appear.

 

[Bounce]

Rolls Royce is out, https://airwaysmag.com/rolls-royce-boom-supersonic

“We have completed a contract with Boom and performed various engineering studies for their Overture supersonic program,” Rolls-Royce said in a statement to AIN.

“After careful consideration, Rolls-Royce has determined that the supersonic commercial aircraft market is not currently a priority for us and therefore will not be pursuing further work on the program at this time.”

 

[TomcatViP]

I suspect that they are happy with their business aviation products line. There is little to be interpreted beyond that if you do understand that supersonic will shrink the BJ market.

 

[TomS]

Rolls Royce is out, https://airwaysmag.com/rolls-royce-boom-supersonic

“We have completed a contract with Boom and performed various engineering studies for their Overture supersonic program,” Rolls-Royce said in a statement to AIN.

“After careful consideration, Rolls-Royce has determined that the supersonic commercial aircraft market is not currently a priority for us and therefore will not be pursuing further work on the program at this time.”

Not surprising. This is basically the same line RR has been taking since at least July. They were content to be paid cash money by Boom for design studies. But they are not putting their own money into the design -- they have enough trouble funding the Ultra-Fan right now.

Boom hunts for supersonic propulsion and a business model to go with it

Rolls’ CEO won’t commit to funding development of supersonic engine itself.

theaircurrent.com

 

[alberchico]

Rolls-Royce Withdraws From Boom Supersonic Project | Aviation Week Network

The decision by Rolls-Royce narrows the list of potential engine providers for the Mach 1.7 Overture airliner project.

aviationweek.com

"Rolls-Royce says "after careful consideration, Rolls-Royce has determined that the commercial aviation supersonic market is not currently a priority for us and, therefore, will not pursue further work on the program at this time. It has been a pleasure to work with the Boom team and we wish them every success in the future."

I'm calling it, this project is done. It was fun to dream and hope while it lasted.

 

[Alifzero]

Is GE F101 still in production? Could be alternative for them (after some modification ofcourse).

 

[Archibald]

CFM56 uses its core at least.

 

[Alifzero]

So basically GE need to remake F101 for Boom. Idk if there is money for that, but surely it will be cheaper than asking RR to develop new engine.

If in this year, the east Europe situation not happening, i will suggesting crazy idea to buy NK-32 for Boom.

 

[steelpillow]

According to the AIN piece the RR work was for "engine management", not the engine design as such. Naively, I would assume this was an initial study looking at the things that happen differently during supercruise, and what would need to be controlled in order to keep things working smoothly. That should help inform the specifications for the engine, its control and fuel systems, and possibly other things like flight profile or engine placement.