Bombardier CSeries / Airbus A220

[starviking]

On the other hand never discount the "Shorts Effect", its been a powerful force ever since the Northern Ireland factory was built and its distorted British defence and economic policy many a time ever since and its effect is no less today. As I said in another post today, its a funny thing how things sometimes go in circles in the aviation world.

Indeed! The flipside is, with some more Belfasts built, and some CVA work for Harland's, the Troubles might have had a lot of power sucked out of them.

 

[sferrin]

FlightGlobal has a poll on Boeing pushing this. Rank hypocrisy leads with 84% of the vote, and no case to answer has another 5%.

Given it's a European publication, it's unlikely to say otherwise.

 

[DWG]

Given it's a European publication, it's unlikely to say otherwise.

That really doesn't matter one way or the other, it clearly demonstrates that Boeing's aggressive behaviour risks alienating potential customers.

 

[Triton]

That really doesn't matter one way or the other, it clearly demonstrates that Boeing's aggressive behaviour risks alienating potential customers.

Sorry, this poll only indicates the opinions of some visitors to the Flight Global website concerning Boeing's trade dispute with Bombardier. It's quite a leap to assert that this poll is any indicator of future airline or military purchasing decisions. Most Flight Global/Flight International readers are not customers or potential customers of Boeing. Only the governments of Canada and the United Kingdom have threatened to boycott Boeing products. Visitors were not asked if they would boycott airlines operating Boeing products.

 

[DWG]

Given Flight is both a general aviation and a trade journal, a more commercially focussed AvLeak, it's unwise to dismiss its readership. Pretty much every aerospace and defence decision maker in the UK is reading its coverage, and even if many of the readers aren't in a position to influence purchase decisions, some are, and others will be in the future. In terms of opinion polling, 1500 respondents is huge, and an 89% negative assessment of Boeing's behaviour shows both that alienation of the customer base is possible, and that counter-sanctions are likely to see strong popular support beyond just the affected Unionist areas around Bombardier's Belfast site (itself a hugely significant constituency given the government's dependency on DUP votes to remain in power).

 

[Triton]

Bombardier sold Delta Air Lines 75 CS100 jets for $19.6 million each substantially below the $80 million list price and below the over $30 million cost to manufacture. There's a lot of hostility being directed at Boeing for a company that has acted to protect itself from a foreign competitor dumping jets in the United States to gain market share and a large launch customer like Delta Air Lines. Based on the evidence, the International Trade Commission agreed and said that a duty of 219.63 percent should be applied to the Bombardier. Instead of advocating that Bombardier appeal the ruling with the International Trade Commission and with the World Trade Commission based on the merits of their case, the peanut gallery seems to want condemnation of Boeing and a trade war/boycott of Boeing products.

 

[marauder2048]

Given Flight is both a general aviation and a trade journal, a more commercially focussed AvLeak, it's unwise to dismiss its readership.

The only thing useful to come out of Flight was Guy Norris.

And in any event, the UK government has its own informed views:


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-03/u-k-is-said-to-see-canada-responsible-in-bombardier-boeing-spat

Publicly, the British government has said that the U.S. imposition of punitive duties on Bombardier is disproportionate,
and Prime Minister Theresa May even lobbied U.S. President Donald Trump unsuccessfully to try to prevent it.

Privately, it believes that Canada has overstepped the mark in aid to Bombardier, according to two officials who declined to
be named while talking about an ongoing dispute. Bombardier spokesman Simon Letendre declined to comment.

 

[DWG]

UK government 'informed', ROFL!

And internal views actually don't matter given the critical necessity of paying off the DUP.

 

[Triton]

"U.S. hits Bombardier with 79.82% preliminary duty on CSeries aircraft"
Montreal-based airplane maker says it's confident penalties will be overturned

CBC News Posted: Oct 06, 2017 8:41 AM ET Last Updated: Oct 06, 2017 2:23 PM ET

Source:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bombardier-cseries-boeing-1.4343262

The U.S. Commerce Department hit Bombardier Friday with more duties on its CSeries commercial jet.

The department said it will impose a 79.82 per cent preliminary anti-dumping duty against the Montreal-based company's 100- to 150-seat civilian aircraft.

The U.S. government move follows last week's decision to slap preliminary countervailing tariffs of nearly 220 per cent on Bombardier, bringing the total duties imposed by the U.S. on the CSeries to almost 300 per cent.

Bombardier has yet to comment on the latest round of preliminary duties, but last week company officials called the imposition of the massive countervailing duty "absurd."

Boeing, the petitioner in the case, has argued that the Canadian government unfairly subsidizes Bombardier in the construction of the CSeries commercial jets. Boeing launched its appeal to the U.S. government in April, several months after Bombardier announced the sale of up to 125 CSeries jets to Delta Airlines.

The duties being imposed by the U.S. won't be collected until Bombardier begins delivering the aircraft to Delta, which is expected in the spring.

"This determination confirms that, as Boeing alleged in its petition, Bombardier dumped its aircraft into the U.S. market at absurdly low prices," Boeing said Friday.

"These duties are the consequence of a conscious decision by Bombardier to violate trade law and dump their CSeries aircraft to secure a sale," Boeing said. "This dumping in our home market was not a situation Boeing could ignore, and we're now simply asking for laws already on the books to be enforced."

In announcing the latest duties, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the United States is committed "to free, fair and reciprocal trade with Canada, but this is not our idea of a properly functioning trading relationship."

"We will continue to verify the accuracy of this decision, while doing everything in our power to stand up for American companies and their workers."

The U.S. government says a final decision on the anti-dumping duties related to Bombardier is scheduled for Dec. 19, 2017.

Countervailing duties are applied by the U.S. when the Department of Commerce finds that foreign governments unfairly subsidized the named producers and exporters. Anti-dumping duties are added if the department also decides that the exported product is being sold in the U.S. at a price below the producer's sales price in its home market or at a price that is lower than the cost of production.

The Bombardier-Boeing case has spilled over into other areas of Canada's relationship with the United States. Canada has been eyeing the purchase of Boeing Super Hornet jet fighters as a possible replacement for its aging fleet of CF-18 Hornets. However, the spat over duties on the CSeries has led the Canadian government to say it wouldn't do business with a company trying to sue it.

 

[GTX]

Bombardier sold Delta Air Lines 75 CS100 jets for $19.6 million each substantially below the $80 million list price and below the over $30 million cost to manufacture. There's a lot of hostility being directed at Boeing for a company that has acted to protect itself from a foreign competitor dumping jets in the United States to gain market share and a large launch customer like Delta Air Lines. Based on the evidence, the International Trade Commission agreed and said that a duty of 219.63 percent should be applied to the Bombardier. Instead of advocating that Bombardier appeal the ruling with the International Trade Commission and with the World Trade Commission based on the merits of their case, the peanut gallery seems to want condemnation of Boeing and a trade war/boycott of Boeing products.

Source for numbers stated here please.

 

[kitnut617]

Boeing seems to be going down the path of the Wright Brothers -----

 

[Triton]

Bombardier sold Delta Air Lines 75 CS100 jets for $19.6 million each substantially below the $80 million list price and below the over $30 million cost to manufacture. There's a lot of hostility being directed at Boeing for a company that has acted to protect itself from a foreign competitor dumping jets in the United States to gain market share and a large launch customer like Delta Air Lines. Based on the evidence, the International Trade Commission agreed and said that a duty of 219.63 percent should be applied to the Bombardier. Instead of advocating that Bombardier appeal the ruling with the International Trade Commission and with the World Trade Commission based on the merits of their case, the peanut gallery seems to want condemnation of Boeing and a trade war/boycott of Boeing products.

Source for numbers stated here please.

"Why Washington Is Certain To Find Canada's Bombardier Guilty Of Trade Abuses Next Week"
by Loren Thompson
September 21, 2017

Source:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2017/09/21/why-washington-is-certain-to-find-canadas-bombardier-guilty-of-trade-abuses-next-week/


"US Department of Commerce found Bombardier guilty for price dumping"
Aviation Business
September 27, 2017

Source:
http://www.wingsherald.com/us-department-commerce-found-bombardier-guilty-price-dumping/


According to Boeing's petition to the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. International Trade Commission, Bombardier sold Delta Air Lines 75 CS100 jets for $19.6 million each (with an option for 50 more) substantially below the $71.8 million list price and below the $33.2 million cost to manufacture.

Source:

"Petitions For The Imposition Of Antidumping And Countervailing Duties On 100-To 150-Seat Large Civil Aircraft From Canada"

https://leehamnews-5389.kxcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/BBD-Complaint-042717.pdf

 

[Grey Havoc]

Further tariff of 80% imposed on import of C-Series plane (BBC News)

 

[Arjen]

... raising the tariff to a nice, round 300%. Waiting for the US trade commission's verdict.

 

[robunos]

Just came across this . . .

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/boeing-helped-finance-bailout-of-monarch-airlines-in-2016-ft/ar-AAt5wnF?li=AA54rU&ocid=mailsignout

"Boeing helped finance bailout of Monarch Airlines in 2016 -

Boeing Co (BA.N) had pumped in more than 100 million pounds into Britain's Monarch Airlines [MONA.UL] which collapsed last week, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

The capital infusion, through Monarch's offshore holding company Petrol Jersey, was carried out in several tranches between October 2016 and March this year, the FT said.

"We do not publicly comment ‎on our customers' financial arrangements but ensure we are always compliant with trade law" Boeing said in a statement to Reuters.

The airline's private equity owner, Greybull Capital, declined to comment on details of the financing, saying that they were "commercially confidential," FT added. It denied that there had been anything secretive about the transaction.

"As a regulated body, all financing arrangements provided to Monarch were reviewed and approved by relevant authorities," Greybull told the newspaper.

Reuters could not immediately reach Greybull for comment outside regular business hours.

Last year, Monarch secured a 165 million pound lifeline from Greybull, enabling the airline to renew a key operating licence and fund new aircraft.

The equity investment had been agreed only hours before its operating licence was due to expire, allowing the airline, which sells flights and package holidays to tourist destinations, to keep flying.

The 48-year-old airline had said that the investment would fund the replacement of its Airbus jets with more fuel-efficient Boeing 737 MAX-8 aircraft between 2018 and 2021." (my bold)

Hmmm . . . :

cheers,
Robin.

 

[marauder2048]

UK government 'informed', ROFL!

The UK government was a respondent to Commerce's investigation.
That should give them some unique insight into the matter.

And internal views actually don't matter given the critical necessity of paying off the DUP.

Does just paying the tariff count towards paying off the DUP?

 

[marauder2048]

Just came across this . . .

The 48-year-old airline had said that the investment would fund the replacement of its Airbus jets with more fuel-efficient Boeing 737 MAX-8 aircraft between 2018 and 2021." (my bold)

Hmmm . . . :

cheers,
Robin.

Don't see how a commercial airframer facilitating a typical sale-leaseback arrangement is relevant to this topic.

 

[DWG]

And internal views actually don't matter given the critical necessity of paying off the DUP.

Does just paying the tariff count towards paying off the DUP?

Pick your preferred blackmailer!

 

[robunos]

Just came across this . . .

The 48-year-old airline had said that the investment would fund the replacement of its Airbus jets with more fuel-efficient Boeing 737 MAX-8 aircraft between 2018 and 2021." (my bold)

Hmmm . . . :

cheers,
Robin.

Don't see how a commercial airframer facilitating a typical sale-leaseback arrangement is relevant to this topic.

Well, to my eyes, (as someone who knows nothing about airline financial practices) and maybe to those people who are looking for evidence of Boeing 'hypocrisy', it seems a strange way to go about things.
Why not just do a part exchange deal, 'You buy our new planes, we'll take your old planes off your hands, and give you a discount on the cash price.', instead of 'We'll invest in your airline (or rather the private equity firm that owns your holding company) to the value of your replacement fleet, on the condition that you buy this fleet from us . . .'.
It just seems somewhat . . . underhanded . . . :

cheers,
Robin

 

[marauder2048]

I think most if not all of Monarch's aircraft were owned by lessors.

If Boeing had used US EXIM Bank money to bridge Monarch's sale-leaseback
there might be a case for hypocrisy but AFIAK, this was Boeing's own capital
used to take a chance on a credit risk.

And internal views actually don't matter given the critical necessity of paying off the DUP.

Does just paying the tariff count towards paying off the DUP?

Pick your preferred blackmailer!

Surely it's meant to be the voters!

 

[Hood]

The UK Government is still rejecting that Boeing has any case against Bombardier.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/uk-defends-bombardier-with-outright-rejection-of-boe-442039/

I must admit that I'm surprised how vocal the government has been. I know the DUP issue is probably having an effect on making the Conservatives say something, but Bombardier hasn't exactly been doing well in recent years and the CS-family doesn't seem to have much of a chance of becoming a major player to really dent Boeing, or Airbus, sales in the longer-term. Maybe the previous issues regarding Bombardier Transportation and UK train orders have played a role too in encouraging more vocal support. While the government probably (as usual) wants to eat all its cake, at some point its going to have to decide which parts of the industry are more worthwhile (profitable) to support. We have investment and factories for Airbus, BAE Systems, Boeing, Bombardier and Leonardo all are fierce competitors and its seems unreasonable to suppose that all of those parts will be retained given the various multi-national factors in policy puling in different directions.

 

[Grey Havoc]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/12/justin-trudeau-tells-donald-trump-will-block-boeing-contracts/

EDIT: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-11/delta-vows-not-to-pay-u-s-import-duties-on-bombardier-jetliner

 

[Boxman]

*** I don't know if this thread or another (https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,25729.0.html) is the most appropriate one for this posting. Please move if necessary. ***

This is a bombshell!

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/airbus-to-acquire-majority-share-in-cseries-programm-442213/
Flight International - Airbus to acquire majority share in CSeries programme
by Stephen Trimble - 16 October 2017

Airbus will acquire a majority stake in the Bombardier CSeries programme and open a second final assembly line for CS100s and CS300s in Mobile, Alabama, to serve US customers, the companies announced late on 16 October.

The pending agreement calls for Airbus to acquire a 50.01% interest in the CSeries Aircraft Limited Partnership, a joint venture formed between Bombardier and province-owned Investissement Québec, Airbus says. The remaining ownerships will be split between a 31% stake for Bombardier and a 19% interest by Investissement Québec.

The timing and structure of the deal, including the commitment to open a US final assembly line, could help relieve pressure on the CSeries from the US government, which is considering a 300% tariff on Bombardier’s small narrowbody after a preliminary decision by the Commerce Department that the programme receives improper subsidies.

“This is a win-win for everybody,” says Airbus chief executive officer Tom Enders. In addition to securing CSeries-related jobs in Canada, the UK and China, he says, “we also bring new jobs to the US. [And] Airbus will benefit from strengthening its product portfolio in the high-volume single-aisle market, offering superior value to our airline customers worldwide." . . .

*** COMPLETE STORY LINKED ABOVE TITLE ***

 

[marauder2048]

Airbus was offered a majority stake two years ago but walked away over terms.

 

[Flyaway]

Airbus was offered a majority stake two years ago but walked away over terms.

I’d bet the terms were very much in their favour this time.

 

[Arjen]

Boeing puts the screws on Bombardier, Airbus runs away with the loot. Interesting times.

 

[Archibald]

I wish Grey Havoc could stop posting Daily Telegraph links. They are an insult to aviation, and this forum. There are far better aviation news sources on the web.

This said...

dang. Airbus rescueing Bombadier and its troubled C-series, just to piss-off Boeing. We are living through strange times.

More seriously, I think it is a step by Airbus to get C-series under control: they were competing with their A320 Neo.

The way I see it, Airbus will slowly but surely strangles the C-series and eliminates a competitor to the A320. that's my gut feeling about the entire affair.

 

[Archibald]

Boeing puts the screws on Bombardier, Airbus runs away with the loot. Interesting times.

Reminds me of Jurassic park Laura Dern quote
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHGHkGmOmD4

 

[starviking]

The way I see it, Airbus will slowly but surely strangles the C-series and eliminates a competitor to the A320. that's my gut feeling about the entire affair.

Will still have Ottowa and London threatening to raise hell. Perhaps we will see alternating make-ups with Boeing then Airbus, then Boeing - each with a palatable deal to secure employment in Canada and Belfast?

Then again, if Bonbardier's C-series goes down the tubes, then we might see a takeover of their aerospace business... Bombardier Belfast may become Airbus Belfast, or even Boeing Belfast!

 

[Mike Pryce]

Pretty remarkable, getting a competitor to give themselves to you for free! Come in to my parlour said the spider to the fly.

The whole 'European company saves Northern Ireland jobs that are crucial to support of party that props up government negotiating Brexit to secure trade deals with a US that imposed the tariff in the first place...' is almost beyond belief. You could not make this up.

Capital tends towards monopoly. Or Monopoly.

Aerospace is politics.

 

[Hood]

I can't imagine this will be the end of the matter as far as Boeing is concerned. And it still leaves Delta in a rocky place with the C-Series jets it already has (interestingly Delta now has a 320neo vs. 737 Max decision to make https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/delta-evaluating-a320neo-or-737-max-family-order-442249/) until a US production line can be set up. Enders says it can be done relatively quickly but it would be optimistic to say before 2019 at the earliest.

Another question is whether it save the Canadian Super Hornet deal? Given the hot political words from Canada probably not.

 

[Triton]

"Boeing outmaneuvered? Airbus takes Bombardier under its wing"
By Aaron Gregg / The Washington Post

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Source:
https://www.heraldnet.com/business/bombardier-to-partner-with-airbus-on-c-series-program/

...In its published reactions to Airbus and Bombardier’s combination, Boeing sought to cast the deal as a blatant attempt to circumvent U.S. trade law.

“This looks like a questionable deal between two heavily state-subsidized competitors to skirt the recent findings of the U.S. government,” a Boeing spokesman said in a statement Monday. “Our position remains that everyone should play by the same rules for free and fair trade to work.”

In a Monday evening call with reporters, executives from Airbus and Bombardier insisted the deal was motivated by a strategic business considerations and not a desire to avoid the tariff. Still, they recognized the added benefit of potentially avoiding the import duty.

“It’s not intended to circumvent anything, but the fact is that when you produce an aircraft in the U.S. it’s not subject to any U.S. import tariff rules,” Bombardier President Alain Bellemare said.

Trade experts question whether using an Alabama production facility would necessarily allow Airbus to waive the tariffs on the C Series plane. Much of the work of producing the plane comes down to assembly, with the actual components stretched across a global supply chain.
“There is a legal question of how much of the parts and components and value-added needs to actually happen in the U.S. for tariffs to no longer apply,” said Chad Bown, a senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “You can’t just fly an airplane to Alabama and say it’s made in America.”

But the combination could also give Bombardier new political clout in the United States, possibly making the import tax politically difficult for the White House. Airbus already operates a 53-acre facility in Mobile where it has produced the A320 narrow-body commercial jetliner since 2015 – the company’s first U.S. production facility.

As part of the announcement Monday Airbus said it will set up a second production center in Mobile, a move that could shift some of the plane’s future job creation potential from Quebec to the United States.

That could give the C Series another ally in Congress, where the tariff already faces resistance. In an October letter to the International Trade Commission a bipartisan group of four U.S. senators and three House members said they oppose the border tax.

“This destroys the trade complaint and guarantees the success of the C Series aircraft in the U.S.,” said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst with Teal Group.

Others said it is unlikely that Bombardier chose to embark on a combination purely because of the Commerce Department’s tariff decision.

“When a partner in a venture pays nothing to get on board it means you were in trouble to begin with,” said Loren Thompson, an aerospace consultant whose think-tank gets some funding from Boeing.

 

[DWG]

The only question now is what Airbus decides to do with the C-Series now it has a controlling stake; we can probably rule out any stretch variant (CS500 was mooted back when the project wasn't a complete disaster).

Or it might guarantee the stretch. Airbus and Boeing umm'd and ah'd over A320 and 737 replacements, and decided to go for final warm-overs with neo and Max, pushing a new platform out a decade or so. Bombardier went the new platform route and have an intrinsically better platform in the C-series due to several decades worth of aeronautical improvements over the base A320 and half a century over the 737. Meanwhile Neo has beaten Max 2 to 1 in the market due to better timing on Airbus's part, Boeing is now looking at NMA in the old 757 market slot, Airbus may or may not want to respond to that - the market says Boeing is late again and the A321 neo LR is available now. We're now half a decade past the decisions to punt A320 and 737 replacements into the long grass. If Airbus decide they don't need to respond to NMA then they could decide the time is right, or will be right in a year or three, to move on CS500 as their long term A320 replacement, beating Boeing to the marketplace yet again.

Whichever way they go, I suspect that Airbus are likely to rapidly move on the development of a CS100 with an Airbus family cockpit in order to push for common type ratings with the A320.

 

[Triton]

"Will Airbus and Bombardier's partnership push Boeing closer to Brazil?"
by Jon Ostrower @jonostrower October 17, 2017: 12:12 AM ET

Source:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/16/news/companies/boeing-embraer-collaboration/index.html

 

[DWG]

"Boeing outmaneuvered? Airbus takes Bombardier under its wing"
By Aaron Gregg

Boeing sought to cast the deal as a blatant attempt to circumvent U.S. trade law.

I suspect the primary reactions at Boeing HQ began with "Oh, f...!" Not only does this fatally undermine their tariff strategy, it vastly strengthens the CS.100's worldwide appeal, as the risks of a financially vulnerable Bombardier have been replaced by the strengths of the Airbus colossus. At the same time it moves forward Airbus's strategy of becoming a U.S. native prime in the same way BAE Systems did, which takes away Boeing's ability to wrap itself in the bloody flag and play the victimised American card.

Boeing had better hope they don't slip further on the tanker contract!

WRT the 'how much has to be built here to count as native' argument, Boeing is actually vulnerable to that itself. Aerospace is an intrinsically multinational business and structural bits of Boeings are built in several countries around the world (Japan and Italy spring immediately to mind) while smaller components come from everywhere. Add in the value of engines, a quarter to a third of the value of the aircraft in their own right, and Boeing needs to be very cautious how it plays that card.

Meanwhile Embraer execs are probably sitting with heads in hands, this is potentially disastrous for them as the E2 Jets will now be going head to head with Airbus salesmen.

“This destroys the trade complaint and guarantees the success of the C Series aircraft in the U.S.,” said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst with Teal Group

Aboulafia is a voice that needs to be taken seriously. Very respected commercial aerospace analyst.

“When a partner in a venture pays nothing to get on board it means you were in trouble to begin with,” said Loren Thompson, an aerospace consultant whose think-tank gets some funding from Boeing.

[/quote]

OTOH Thompson is pretty notorious for being a Boeing sock-puppet.

 

[DWG]

"Will Airbus and Bombardier's partnership push Boeing closer to Brazil?"
by Jon Ostrower @jonostrower October 17, 2017: 12:12 AM

It'll certainly push Brazil closer to Boeing, which isn't quite the same thing.

 

[Triton]

"Winners And Losers As Airbus Bails Out Bombardier's C-Series"
by Richard Aboulafia

10/17/2017

Source:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardaboulafia/2017/10/17/bombardier-airbus-cseries-boeing/#6263b55e491e

 

[Moose]

The thing about Boein trying to hook more up with Embraer is that if China's serious about taking a run at an established manufacturer EMB is the last option. Given how poorly the management is handling this situation, I don't have a lot of faith in their ability to deftly maneuver into a favorable deal anything like that Airbus just pulled off while also facing down a bidding war with the PRC. Mitsubishi might be an option, since the MRJ could use some Boeing help shedding weight and gaining sales traction. But that brings it's own issues of Japanese protectionist policies.

 

[Triton]

"Boeing, caught off guard, shrugs at European-Canadian alliance"
by Jon Ostrower @jonostrower October 23, 2017: 5:44 PM ET

Source:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/23/news/companies/boeing-airbus-canadian-alliance-caught-off-guard/index.html

 

[Triton]

"Boeing’s future plans threatened by Airbus-Bombardier pact"
Originally published October 17, 2017 at 7:14 pm Updated October 17, 2017 at 10:19 pm

by Dominic Gates

Source:
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeings-future-plans-threatened-by-airbus-bombardier-pact/

Airbus’s surprise move to swallow Bombardier’s CSeries airplane program gives it a new small-jet family without spending the billions of dollars it would take to develop one itself.

Besides the likely impact of the deal on the Boeing-instigated U.S. trade case against Bombardier, that leg up for Airbus could trigger a serious strategy shift for Boeing.

The deal Airbus announced Monday, giving it control of Bombardier’s freshly introduced two-model family of small narrowbody jets — the 110-seat CS100 and the 130-seat CS300, — could ultimately force Boeing to redraw the road map of new airplane development that it had settled on.

Boeing has said it doesn’t expect to have to field a so-called “clean-sheet” new-technology design to replace the Renton-built 737 narrowbody until around 2030.
Yet Ernie Arvai, president of AirInsight Group, an aviation industry consulting firm, said that if Airbus chooses to produce a stretched CSeries jet — a potential 150-seat CS500 — it would hurt sales of the 162-seat 737 MAX 8, the heart of Boeing’s narrowbody jet lineup and the narrowbody plane from which it expects to derive most revenue.

With such a threat, Boeing might need to spend billions on a 737 replacement sooner than expected.

“It probably pushes it two to three years earlier than Boeing had originally planned,” said Arvai. Conversely, with the CSeries in hand, “Airbus may not need a new-technology narrowbody jet just as desperately.”

Indeed, Airbus’s move to secure the small narrowbody market should free it to focus its money and resources on countering Boeing’s pending plan for a new 797 airplane that’s sized between its 737 and 787 jet families.

For that project, Airbus may find useful the innovative composites manufacturing technology that Bombardier developed for the CSeries in its wing plant in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

There, in a very different composites layup technique from that used by Airbus and Boeing, employees make single-piece wing panels, with stiffening rods called stringers already attached, out of dry carbon fiber fabric, and then inject epoxy resin that will harden the material in a high-pressure oven or autoclave.