Blackouts in the British Isles

[Hood]

In 2016 Gove specifically said "People in this country have had enough of experts".

Ah yes, more of the 'celebration of being morons...' that always seems to accompany such types these days...

It appears to be yet another example of political dishonesty via clipping quotes out of context. I don't know who this Gove guy was or what he was talking about, but there's this thing called "Google," see, and it helped me, in about ten seconds, find that what he *actually* said was:

"I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong."

It says something quite different when in context. It is *perfectly* appropriate for people to"have enough" of people who consistently get it wrong. But by trimming out the context, political extremists with axes to grind but who have dubious arguments - or dubious abilities to make arguments - can get the other guy to say something he didn't. We saw that on a grand scale when a great many talking heads took Trump massively out of context with "good people on both sides," and before that with GW Bush's "Mission Accomplished."

Never heard of Michael Gove? As one of Trump's mates on this side of the pond he'll be sad he's not better known.

Yes, that was the full quote from the Sky News interview during the Brexit campaign (though it "from organisations with" not "with organisations from") but in Britain it's pretty much taken as shorthand that he meant experts suck, or at least experts that didn't confirm his world view which his full interview at the time made clear.

 

[Hood]

Another day another flip-flop - Rees-Mogg (Sec of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy) says its "unconservative" to tell farmers what to do with their land and wants to boost renewable energy, so yet another political argument to be thrashed out.

Liz Truss on collision course with Jacob Rees-Mogg over solar power ban

PM wants to prevent panels on 58% of farmland but business secretary says renewables need to be boosted

www.theguardian.com

 

[Nik]

Why the tizz over 'XOR' for solar panels and fields ?? Surely, even in UK, there's ample light for raised panels and low crops or grazing ??

 

[CJGibson]

What? You can do both? Huzzzaaaah! We can tax both!

Chris

 

[Justo Miranda]

As a simple soul can someone explain to me why people still say the solution is in renewable energy (wind, solar etc) while not explaining how to supply power when these sources do not?
China, India and the US now followed by Germany and even us have accepted that the cheapest, safest source of continuous power is a coal fired station. Coal is widely available from sensible countries unlike gas. Unlike nuclear power it does not need to be buried underground afterwards for millennia.
I realise that I am sounding like The Donald but a cold Winter in Britain may well see the Public say Planet go f*CK yourself we need to keep warm!
Just get some different climate models. In the 70s we were told the next Ice Age was due any day now. In which case we may need all the Coal powered stations we can refurbish.

Solar and wind do have intermittency issues, but every kg of coal you don't have to burn is an improvement. Long-distance grid ties improve this, as do various storage schemes.
Coal is only safe if you ignore the deaths caused by the emissions from burning the stuff. Telling the planet to go * itself just saddles our descendants with higher and higher mountains of trouble to clear. In that regard, coal is no better than nuclear; and we have solutions for most of the nuclear waste problems.

Our current climate models are fine. In the 1970s, climate science was in its infancy, which led to incorrect conclusions. That was quickly corrected though: within a few years, the 'ice age' models were recognized as unrealistic. We've had 50 years of continuous improvement of our climate models, along with 50 years in which those models were tested (make prediction, then check the weather for the next year to find out if the model is accurate), so the accuracy of these models is no longer conjecture: they're proven.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_of_Rome

Critics

See also: Malthusian § Criticism, and Limits to Growth § Criticism

Economist Robert Solow, recipient of a Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, criticized The Limits to Growth (LTG) as having "simplistic" scenarios. He has also been a vocal critic of the Club of Rome. He has said that "the one thing that really annoys me is amateurs making absurd statements about economics, and I thought that the Club of Rome was nonsense. Not because natural resources or environmental necessities might not at some time pose a limit, not on growth, but on the level of economic activity—I didn't think that was a nonsensical idea—but because the Club of Rome was doing amateur dynamics without a license, without a proper qualification. And they were doing it badly, so I got steamed up about that."[24]

An analysis of the world model used for The Limits to Growth in 1976 by mathematicians Vermeulen and De Jongh has shown it to be "very sensitive to small parameter variations" and having "dubious assumptions and approximations".[25]

An interdisciplinary team at Sussex University's Science Policy Research Unit reviewed the structure and assumptions of the models used and published its finding in Models of Doom; showing that the forecasts of the world's future are very sensitive to a few unduly pessimistic key assumptions. The Sussex scientists also claim that the Dennis Meadows et al. methods, data, and predictions are faulty, that their world models (and their Malthusian bias) do not accurately reflect reality.[26]

Thomas Sowell in his 1995 book The Vision of the Anointed writes that corporationist Ken Galbraith was amongst other things a notable "teflon prophet" alongside American biologist Paul R. Ehrlich, the Club of Rome and Worldwatch Institute; they were utterly certain in their predictions, yet completely disproven empirically, though their reputations remained perfectly undamaged. With this collection of the "anointed", as promoters of a worldview concocted out of fantasy impervious to any real-world considerations.[27]

The Club of Rome garnered "serious criticism" in 2016 after promoting the idea of a one-child policy for industrialized countries, in its pamphlet titled "Reinventing Prosperity."[28] With PhD Reiner Klingholz, stating of the Club's pamphlet, "this is pure nonsense", as acting chairman of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development, an institute focused on sustainable development, citing the stable replacement rate of 2.1 not being met in Europe, at that time standing "already as low as 1.5".[28]

 

[EwenS]

Why the tizz over 'XOR' for solar panels and fields ?? Surely, even in UK, there's ample light for raised panels and low crops or grazing ??

Grazing sheep maybe. Cattle? What happens when your 800kg animal comes in contact with the hardware? Crops? Highly unlikely. Crops need sunlight too. How high are you placing the panels to allow the sunlight round the edges? How do you intend to plant and harvest them? Going to raise the panels high enough for the machinery to pass under? And don’t forget to leave enough room between all the supports.

What about those big warehouse roofs? Plenty of them around these days. Bit of reinforcement to take any additional weight. Plenty of people putting a dozen on so on house roofs around me.

 

[GTX]

Grazing sheep maybe. Cattle? What happens when your 800kg animal comes in contact with the hardware?

Couldn't possibly work...

 

[GTX]

And as for crops, obviously it depends on the type of plant but it is possible:

 

[EwenS]

And as for crops, obviously it depends on the type of plant but it is possible:

Expensive to pick by hand. What is the crop?

 

[GTX]

Not sure - I just picked a generic image as an example. If you Google "crops and solar panels" or "Agrivoltaic farming" though you will find lots of information.

For example:

View: https://youtu.be/lgZBlD-TCFE

 

[Orionblamblam]

Not sure - I just picked a generic image as an example. If you Google "crops and solar panels" or "Agrivoltaic farming" though you will find lots of information.

Better by far to erect a microwave rectennae over your farm. Blocks only a small percentages if sunlight. And is much lighter, easing construction requirements and cost.

 

[zebedee]

A small, aviation related cartoon from the Guardian that pretty much sums up Gove...

Let me do it, David

And... if you ever wanted to where the UK's electricity is coming from in real time there's Gridwatch...

GB National Grid Status

Meanwhile in the official journal of the Conservative party, aka The Daily Telegraph...

Hellish blackouts could yet have a silver lining

I cant help thinking we've reached the 'ripping the copper wires out of the wall' stage of this country being asset stripped...

Zeb

 

[Fluff]

Why California has blackouts: A look at the power grid​

Why California has blackouts: A look at the power grid

Extreme temperatures have sent electric demand on the grid to record levels.

abcnews.go.com

 

[starviking]

BloJo reckoned he could crank out a nuclear power station every year for eight years. So far we've built half of one and maybe have planning permission for a second and maaayybe a couple more by 2050 but of course that love/hate relationship with Chinese investment doesn't bode well.

Never thought I’d be doing this… but in defence if BoJo, the nuclear plant a year was for a sustained programme - something like France did in the 70s.

Once you get the planners, builders, and supply chain ready, you can have the first plant at phase 1 of the build at Year 1. In Year 2 you can have the first plant at phase 2, and the second plant at phase 1, and that plant will have advice and trained staff from the first plant’s phase 1 build.

The other plants we’re building were financed by EDF, the operator, who had to take a lot of risk on, and so needed lots of cash to encourage them. The new plants will have more solid financing, and so will cost less (relatively), and have more programmatic security.

 

[sferrin]

The New, Green Blackout Deal. Example, when it gets hot in CA, please don't charge your electric cars.

And when it gets cold in the winter do not turn on your natural gas heater. Just another liberal paradise.

 

[phantomphan]

In South Africa we call it load shedding and it has been part and parcel of our existence since 2007 and we cannot blame this one on a war in Eastern Europe. It is the result of inadequate generating capacity brought about by a devil's brew of poor maintenance of aging infrastructure, as well as straight out government corruption and ineptitude. It effectively sabotages the economy at every level, and is about as demoralizing experience as you can imagine.

 

[Hobbes]

The New, Green Blackout Deal. Example, when it gets hot in CA, please don't charge your electric cars.

And when it gets cold in the winter do not turn on your natural gas heater. Just another liberal paradise.

Avoiding peak loads in the electric network by shifting loads that aren't time-sensitive (like electric cars) is nothing more than common sense. And I'll note that conservatives are faring no better in predicting and mitigating the circumstances that are now leading to gas shortages.

 

[sferrin]

The New, Green Blackout Deal. Example, when it gets hot in CA, please don't charge your electric cars.

And when it gets cold in the winter do not turn on your natural gas heater. Just another liberal paradise.

Avoiding peak loads in the electric network by shifting loads that aren't time-sensitive (like electric cars) is nothing more than common sense. And I'll note that conservatives are faring no better in predicting and mitigating the circumstances that are now leading to gas shortages.

They're not the ones banning fossil fuel cars and home heating and then telling people not to use electricity.

 

[Hydroman]

Why California has blackouts: A look at the power grid​

Why California has blackouts: A look at the power grid

Extreme temperatures have sent electric demand on the grid to record levels.

abcnews.go.com

CA does not manage power generation and the power grid well and green power has not been working, our power rates probably still highest in nation.

 

[edwest4]

Not sure - I just picked a generic image as an example. If you Google "crops and solar panels" or "Agrivoltaic farming" though you will find lots of information.

Better by far to erect a microwave rectennae over your farm. Blocks only a small percentages if sunlight. And is much lighter, easing construction requirements and cost.

Microwave rectenna? How would that work? I am familiar with the basic concept.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Microwave rectenna? How would that work? I am familiar with the basic concept.

Look up any number of solar power satellite descriptions. A microwave receiver need be only a mesh with a cell opening on the order of a centimeter or more, allowing higher frequency optical light to zip right on through. The environment under an SPS microwave receiver would be pretty much like that underneath the mesh antenna of the late lamented Aricebo radio telescope:

 

[edwest4]

But, but the European Space Agency is only starting to look into this. The Americans may (maybe) thinking about setting up a Very Large Array Solar Transmission Station on the Moon (I just made that up). I think that would be far more sensible than building a kilometers wide solar collector in space in Earth orbit.

 

[GTX]

And when it gets cold in the winter do not turn on your natural gas heater. Just another liberal paradise.

Better than a Conservative paradise:

2021 Texas power crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[GTX]

They're not the ones banning fossil fuel cars and home heating and then telling people not to use electricity.

Where exactly is this being done??

 

[Archibald]

Ding, dong, that thread is doomed !

And another one gone and another thread gone

Another thread bites the dust !

 

[sferrin]

They're not the ones banning fossil fuel cars and home heating and then telling people not to use electricity.

Where exactly is this being done??

California.

 

[sferrin]

And when it gets cold in the winter do not turn on your natural gas heater. Just another liberal paradise.

Better than a Conservative paradise:

2021 Texas power crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

That must be why everybody is fleeing California and heading to conservative states, Texas in particular. Nobody is going back.

 

[GTX]

They're not the ones banning fossil fuel cars and home heating and then telling people not to use electricity.

Where exactly is this being done??

California.

Evidence please.

 

[Orionblamblam]

They're not the ones banning fossil fuel cars and home heating and then telling people not to use electricity.

Where exactly is this being done??

California.

Evidence please.

Governor Newsom Announces California Will Phase Out Gasoline-Powered Cars & Drastically Reduce Demand for Fossil Fuel in California’s Fight Against Climate Change

California to Ban the Sale of New Gasoline Cars​

California To Ban Natural Gas Heaters By 2030​

California implores residents to reduce power use to avoid blackouts​

 

[GTX]

Sounds like smart, socially responsible actions in line with many other governments around the world and which will result in better outcomes for all other than fossil fuel execs and luddites.

 

[edwest4]

Regarding California. The so-called news media touted global warming as the cause for a recent forest fire in California. The truth is the power company did not bury their power lines, making this scenario more likely than not. After all, it's too expensive to bury the lines. The same with large-scale battery storage of solar power - too expensive. So profits, not the Earth - the environment - is the driving force and will remain so.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Sounds like smart, socially responsible actions in line with many other governments around the world and which will result in better outcomes for all other than fossil fuel execs and luddites.

Evidence please.

 

[Orionblamblam]

So profits, not the Earth - the environment - is the driving force and will remain so.

So it has always been. As with everything... follow the money. Who is paying off those who demand this or that massive change to the existing infrastructure, based not on proven capability but on hopes and promises?

 

[edwest4]

So profits, not the Earth - the environment - is the driving force and will remain so.

So it has always been. As with everything... follow the money. Who is paying off those who demand this or that massive change to the existing infrastructure, based not on proven capability but on hopes and promises?

Hold on a minute. Progress is being made but billionaires want someone else to pay for it. Their money is too precious, so in the case of the U.S., just wait for the government - meaning taxpayers - to give them money. Example: Electric car charging stations are too expensive. Really? And they don't use 'never invented before' technology. And then - poof - the money appears to build charging stations:

Biden administration approves $900 million for states to build a national electric car-charging network

Building out a reliable and convenient network is critical to spur more adoption of the technology, which is itself key to reducing greenhouse emissions that cause global warming.

fortune.com

Utility scale battery storage exists right now. So, when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing, a certain amount of power can be stored to bridge the gap.

US installs 5GWh of battery storage in H1 2022 but overall clean power deployments fall

5GWh of utility-scale battery storage was deployed in H1 2022, up 33% while wind and solar fell 50-70%, according to American Clean Power.

www.energy-storage.news

Then there is molten salt technology to store power for 24 hour operation. Cheaper than a nuclear plant and any potential spill is not radioactive.

DEWA concentrated solar power plant (UAE): first molten salts injected into the receiver designed and supplied by John Cockerill

The DEWA concentrated solar power plant in the Dubai desert reached another major milestone on 14 July 2022: the first salts were injected into the receiver designed and supplied by John Cockerill. Commissioning is continuing in order to reach 565°C at the receiver outlet. This molten salt...

helioscsp.com

 

[Hobbes]

Sounds like smart, socially responsible actions in line with many other governments around the world and which will result in better outcomes for all other than fossil fuel execs and luddites.

Evidence please.

How about the global average temperature, which has increased by 1.2 ºC in the past 30 years? Caused by our CO2 emissions.

 

[GTX]

Sounds like smart, socially responsible actions in line with many other governments around the world and which will result in better outcomes for all other than fossil fuel execs and luddites.

Evidence please.

More than happy to:

Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Electric vs. Gas Cars: Is It Cheaper to Drive an EV?

Chances are, yes. Here’s how to be sure....

www.nrdc.org

Arguably anyone who likes to claim themselves as relying on science and being economically responsible should be strongly supporting such measures...unless they are letting their political views cloud their judgements.

 

[sferrin]

Sounds like smart, socially responsible actions in line with many other governments around the world and which will result in better outcomes for all other than fossil fuel execs and luddites.

Evidence please.

More than happy to:

Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Electric vs. Gas Cars: Is It Cheaper to Drive an EV?

Chances are, yes. Here’s how to be sure....

www.nrdc.org

Arguably anyone who likes to claim themselves as relying on science and being economically responsible should be strongly supporting such measures...unless they are letting their political views cloud their judgements.

Now factor in cost. If it were actually cheaper they wouldn't have to FORCE adoption. It would happen on it's own. Oops. Also many of those "electric" cars are actually fueled by fossil fuel at the powerplant.

I'd like a platinum unicorn too but there's that pesky thing called "reality" that tends to be inconvenient.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Arguably anyone who likes to claim themselves as relying on science and being fiscally conservative should be strongly supporting such measures...unless they are letting their political views cloud their judgements.

Incorrect. I am *highly* in favor of electric vehicles... for those who can afford them. This does not include *me.* Now, when you come up with an electric vehicle that can:
1) Seat 4, with a substantial cargo load
2) Go 300 miles on a charge
3) Fully charge in less than 10 minutes
4) Be purchasable for under $10,000, used and in good shape
5) Have maintenance/battery replacement costs no greater than would be expected of a basic-transport IC car...

... THEN we can talk. But the "measures" being pushed do not make these simple requirements come about; they only mandate that people who cannot afford these cars must impoverish themselves further in order to obtain them. mandating a technology that isn't there yet is like mandating health insurance: all you do is drive up the cost.

Imagine if, instead of electric cars, the orders came from on High to get rid of ground vehicles entirely and convert everything to self-piloting EVTOLs. That way you could tear up the roads and free up a *lot* of territory, for agriculture or solar farms. Sure, a "family" EVTOL will cost as much as a house, but, hey, what kind of ideologue would argue against using the power of the government to force people to give up their affordable means of transport in favor of an unaffordable means?

Good science and fiscal conservatism says "don't mandate that people buy technologies that aren't yet ready. Instead, incentivize industry to *develop* those technologies to the point where they are commercially competitive... and then people will buy them willingly." I own a number of bits of consumer electronics, purchased at low prices form pawn shops and the like, that the department of Defense would have happily slaughtered whole villages to obtain only a few decades ago. I was not mandated to buy these laptops or flat screen TVs/displays or cell phones; i bought them when the natural course of the modern economic cycle of supply, demand and entrepreneurship brought the price down to what I was willing to pay. Using governmental power to *force* me to buy such things, either directly or by taking away the option of buying a cheaper alternative for something that is virtually necessary to get by with in modern society, is akin to fascism.

 

[sferrin]

Arguably anyone who likes to claim themselves as relying on science and being fiscally conservative should be strongly supporting such measures...unless they are letting their political views cloud their judgements.

o

Incorrect. I am *highly* in favor of electric vehicles... for those who can afford them. This does not include *me.* Now, when you come up with an electric vehicle that can:
1) Seat 4, with a substantial cargo load
2) Go 300 miles on a charge
3) Fully charge in less than 10 minutes
4) Be purchasable for under $10,000, used and in good shape
5) Have maintenance/battery replacement costs no greater than would be expected of a basic-transport IC car...

... THEN we can talk. But the "measures" being pushed do not make these simple requirements come about; they only mandate that people who cannot afford these cars must impoverish themselves further in order to obtain them. mandating a technology that isn't there yet is like mandating health insurance: all you do is drive up the cost.

Imagine if, instead of electric cars, the orders came from on High to get rid of ground vehicles entirely and convert everything to self-piloting EVTOLs. That way you could tear up the roads and free up a *lot* of territory, for agriculture or solar farms. Sure, a "family" EVTOL will cost as much as a house, but, hey, what kind of ideologue would argue against using the power of the government to force people to give up their affordable emans of transport in favor of an unaffordable means?

Good science and fiscal conservatism says 'don;t mandate that people buy technologies that aren't yet ready. Instead, incentivize industry to *develop* those technologies tot he point where they are commercially competative... and then people will buy them willingly."

 

[Orionblamblam]

Electric vs. Gas Cars: Is It Cheaper to Drive an EV?

Chances are, yes. Here’s how to be sure....

www.nrdc.org

That link makes a number of bizarre claims:
1: " The federal EV tax credit is up to $7,500 for new vehicles."

Yeah... no. For starters, GM jacked up the prices of their electric vehicles by... $7,500. And the tax credit only goes to cars that use batteries that don't actually exist.... and the credit is "up to" $7,500.

Important notes:

Under the new rules, you can only claim the EV tax credit if:

• You buy an EV priced at $55,000 or less, or buy an SUV or light truck priced at $80,000 or less (from January 1, 2023)
• Your modified adjusted gross income in the year of purchase or preceding year is no more than $150,000 if filing singly; $225,000 for a head of household; or $300,000 if you’re filing jointly
• For used EVs, the purchaser’s income is limited to $75,000 for a single filer, $112,500 for a head of household, and $150,000 for joint filers
• The EV is assembled in North America, which for the bill’s purposes includes Mexico, the U.S., and Canada (effective immediately)
• The EV’s battery is assembled in or made from materials sourced in North America or an approved country (though this rule will only apply from January 1, 2025)
• At least 40% of the “critical minerals content” comes from U.S. sources, is recycled in North America, or comes from a country with a free trade agreement with the U.S. (from January 1, 2023, with annual increases in minimum content requirements thereafter).

2: "32 miles of range, which is typically plenty for daily driving needs."

I typically put a hundred miles on a single days drive. And I might wish to decide to drive 600 miles away. With my current beater, that's a one-day drive, with 2 or 3 tankups along the way. How's that gonna work with an EV?

3: "Without spark plugs to replace or oil to change, electric vehicles have a clear leg up on maintenance costs. Electric cars do still require some basic maintenance—like service checks and tire rotations."

Ummm... how much do those *batteries* cost to replace? Not just the cost of the battery itself, but the labor? Interesting that that little detail was left entirely out of the discussion.